Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

21 Oct

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We’ve learnt from the Past: Carmody 26 October 2017…st-carmody

Lies, damned lies, and statistics. – AP Forum version.

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There is (as academics do) furious debate about who first coined the phrase. I would quite fancy Disraeli myself; although as Wiki points out, the phrase was not found in Disraeli’s works. But; it is the sort of thing I imagine him saying. His history is ‘interesting’. No matter; the phrase exists – and it seems to fit the current departmental ‘spin’ – as published.

CASA reckon they are now a better outfit and more popular than ever before. But; are their damned lies based on statistics? Selected numbers to make it all seem good? I don’t think so; they wouldn’t dare. However – IMO – they did use ‘the numbers’ as provided; except, they omitted the facts about ‘who’ responded. AP research – rough and quick – and an associate survey (careful and slow) revealed an interesting fact or two; some hard data about just who actually participated and where the glowing accolades came from. Of course, ‘tis all confidential, don’t’ya know. The whole thing was eloquently summarised by one of the fellahin who has got a considerable, long running ‘experience’ of the authority and it’s doings. “Did you do the survey?” I asked. “Bugger that” say’s he. “Why would I give CASA the benefit of my IP address, my opinions, and become an even bigger target?” Fair comment. Those who rushed to complete are and remain, firmly, within the CASA golden circle; those who did not – well they, boys and girls, would not dream of participating. So, we can assume that the CASA numbers – of themselves – are probably near enough correct. You can get a jail term for rigging a horse race – but; if no one turns up to oppose your runner, then it’s all Kosher – ain’t it?

Reference: Forsyth report – IOS monitoring of progress:…60#pid7460

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& Pg 57 of the Noble Art of Emuggerance:

Apart from Hitch suddenly sliding around on his own marbles as he desperately tries to regain some semblance of ‘balance’ there has been little else of note this week. So Hitch stands out a tad more than usual. I’m going to take the erstwhile P2 to task for dodgy reporting and disingenuous comment though.

P2 – “Oz Flying has this on the FF survey:”

Bad P2 – it is actually the FFS survey. As in who; FFS , would bother filling the thing out? What industry (apart from the majors) forget is that it is solely and only the public response that the miniscule’s react to. CASA play the PR/Spin game very, very well. If the ‘voting public’ are convinced that all is well; and, that it is only the few rouges and the IOS who are kicking up the dust – then, in the ministerial lexicon – all is really good; and, his ‘expert advisors’ have this licked. There is not a minister today who will even try to gainsay that.

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And a comment from Albo:…ml#pid9453

“And she never could remember; and ever since that day what Lucy means by a good story is a story which reminds her of the forgotten story in the Magician’s Book.” ― C.S. Lewis, The Voyage of the Dawn Treader

Gods forbid the electorate ever got a whiff of what goes on under the silky smooth belly of the ATSB, ASA and CASA swans. The minister does not have one ugly duckling – he has three – all pretending that when they emerge from the bulrushes; they will be beautiful swans. Game, set and match for the ‘departments’. Some wit sent me an email today – “Re – Joyce Australia fair” – was all it said; which, IMO was all that needed saying. If (big one) Sterle and his crew can get their act together and mount an inquiry into the real issues; and if (another big one) Albo and his crew mean it; and, IF BJ keeps his promises; then perhaps, maybe, the results of the ministerial feel-good, survey placebo will not sparkle quite so brightly in the blinding glare of the smoke and mirrors lamps. – Who knows; or even cares anymore?

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“I am not an irretrievable sceptic. I am not hopelessly prejudiced. I am perfectly willing to believe, and my mind is wide open; but I have, as yet, to be convinced. I am perfectly willing, but the evidence must be sane and conclusive.” – Harry Houdini

Not me for one. There are some bloody good eggs in the departmental basket; some clever informed folk in the ASA; there are some (a few) honest toilers after probity within the ATSB, even CASA has, deeply hidden, some first class minds. Glenn Sterle’s inquiry – if he’s fair dinkum – should begin with; ‘in-camera’ fully protected discussions with those ex departmental  folk (resigned in disgust) willing to ‘chat’ with the committee. Anything else; just another wasteful exercise resulting in ‘recommendations’ being holly and completely discarded. The proof is there that this has happened – repeatedly and recently. We may get a hint of the RRAT committee mood next week, although looking at the schedule with CASA not on until 2030 and O’Sofullofit running the show, probably not. We shall see.

Aye well, it’s cold and windy outside, the stable is warm and cosy, TOM’s new bench stands foursquare ready for work (it really is very nice, even if I say so myself) we kept the original vise which works fine. The amazing thing is that once we lifted the top work surface off his old (2.5 thick , only the first ‘top side’ inch of it was buggered; quick run through the band saw returned 12 meters of beautiful 8 x1.5 Spruce.  The rest of the very old timber was in first class condition; now carefully stored away to be used again, that pleases me. The day is my own, good book, coffee, feet up, phone off – happiness.


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