It’s way too early for technical theory and chest beating hypotheses; but a little operational ‘savvy’ may provide the first clues. Finally, I found a soupcon of calm, professional analysis on Pprune.
BG 47 – “If you look at the flight route that was posted above, it looks like the crew was attempting to follow the river for a possible place to land, maybe coincidence?? I have only flown into that airport once many years ago but what struck me was how large the city was around the airport. BG 47.
This, following the map and flight path data – HERE – which, to my mind at least, shows a couple of interesting points, which must be considered.
The first that seems worth mentioning is that the turn to the right commenced very shortly after the runway end, secondly (need someone with full Google earth to check this properly ) but from what I can see, OEI, the ‘safest’ path appears to be the one taken. There are some pretty high (relative) buildings and hills in the path of a straight ahead climb out. It looks as though the highway running along the valley floor provides the best OC gradient. Starting a turn with AEO when they did is fine; but if the OEI event happens – height, speed and space are required, if the aircraft is to fly away. I just wonder if this crew had either. Hard to get a fix on the event, too many unknowns, but a 3D Google earth appraisal of the actual flight path would greatly assist. Can anyone help??