“The deep breath before the plunge.” – AP forum version.
Gandalf of course; but, for a Bookie, the phrase has both meaning and import. There are but five days remaining of the parliamentary year – the aviation industry on tenterhooks – all anticipating the promised interim report from the Senate Inquiry into aviation (yes; that one, the latest in a long, long line).
I hardly know how to set ‘odds’ and yet I must; and, soon. My own problem is a simple one, I must remove the ‘anticipation’ element and rely solely on stone cold ‘data’. Except of course there ain’t any – a whisper here, an opinion there, gossip from across the land, advice from close at hand; but if I wish to keep my ‘hi-viz’ ensemble, then I need to glean what will happen when ‘the Pennies’ leave the ‘Kip. For our overseas visitors; perhaps a short introduction to an Australian game – that of “Two-Up.
Wiki – “Two-up is a traditional Australian gambling game, involving a designated “spinner” throwing two coins or pennies into the air. Players bet on whether the coins will fall with both heads (obverse) up, both tails (reverse) up, or with one coin a head and one a tail (known as “Ewan”).”
Wiki – “The design of pre-1939 pennies had the sovereign’s head on the obverse (front) and the reverse was totally covered in writing making the result very easy and quick to see.”
Before the ‘Pennies’ are tossed; there is much noise, excitement and discussion within the ‘August’ body participating. Predictions (and pennies) are weighed and counted before a bet is placed. After the ‘toss’ – when the result is called there is an equal amount of noise, consternation and cheering as the winners collect and the losers lament. But what happens during the short, but significant fall through the air those pennies take – almost dead silence as the crowd watch ’em tumble. This is where our punters are, at this very second; watching closely as the important ‘Pennies’ tumble and return to earth. Breath is held, prayers to pagan gods are silently made; life on hold, as the ‘chips’ fall as they may.
Our two particular Pennies are the gracious Senator McDonald ‘Head’ and the CASA ‘Tails’ dark side. At this moment; both are spinning upwards toward heaven; soon at the apex of the parabola; both must (al’a Newton) begin their inevitable return to Earth. During their short, Topsy-turvy flight, there is some serious turbulence which can prevent a ‘natural’ return. The DoIT, the Minister, his party, the risible ‘bipartinsane’ acceptance of CASA as a Demi-god, above the law; supported by an Act of Parliament which has become no more than a Devil’s plaything. There are serious ‘external’ forces acting on our two Pennies as they tumble.
We hear, in whispers and ‘hints’ that the ‘Stewards’ have been called in to make sure the game is played according to the rules. But, we have seen this many times before and, to our chagrin, seen a fixed toss of the coins benefit only a certain few.
“A glimpse into the world proves that horror is nothing other than reality.” ― Alfred Hitchcock
Much depends on the anticipated ‘Interim’ report. Carmody was sacked; of that there can be little doubt, the PM&C have taken a hand; the PA has a seat at the high table, McDonald has shown her mettle, the new DoIT boss seems to be a honest player at the big table, behind the scenes. There are some pretty heavy duty ‘submissions’ supporting a three decade claim of ‘mass embuggerance’ potentially opening the flood gates to a ‘full and frank’ discussion of what a bloody mess CASA has created during their tenure as the unchallenged ‘guru’ of aviation ‘safety’. An internationally acknowledged shambles; proven several times this last decade. IMO they are an almost prefect example of how not to do it; and, how to defend the indefensible. In the real world; they would have been exiled to a ‘Gulag’ for sheer incompetence.
So, here I sit – trying to weigh up the odds on, in reality, two fundamental questions.
What will the interim report contain?
What ‘results’ can we expect?
Aye; those coins are flying upward, soon to reach their zenith; the ‘political’ gravity will gain ascendancy and return to Earth they must. Oh, I’ll post odds on that return to Earth; but, be warned, the ‘short odds’ will be tight – based on history – and it’s habit of repeating itself and the disappointment the risk of political embarrassment always brings in it’s wake.
There is no terror in the bang, only in the anticipation of it. ― Alfred Hitchcock
“There are enough off-cuts there for a blanket chest” says our client. “Yes” says I there probably are”. “Can you make one? Says he. “Yes” says’ I. “Good, then you will make me one” he rattled. “No” says’ I. “Why not” he says’- “Well if you have to ask, then I cannot find the time to explain”. – Disgruntled? Just a bit; but no matter. Tonight the BBQ is full of lovely Oak embers which are fragrant and very hot – doing a great job; it is a fitting end to a once mighty tree, I mourn it’s loss but, lost it was, but not to my hand. It is a given that the dogs and the cat will feast on that which is left – but; I do believe, watching ’em, that they actually enjoy the smell, more than the taste – perhaps that too is ‘anticipation.
“Well,” said Pooh, “what I like best,” and then he had to stop and think. Because although Eating Honey was a very good thing to do, there was a moment just before you began to eat it which was better than when you were, but he didn’t know what it was called.” ― A.A. Milne, The House at Pooh Corner
“Go placidly amid the noise and the haste, and remember what peace there may be in silence. As far as possible, without surrender, be on good terms with all persons. Speak your truth quietly and clearly; and listen to others, even to the dull and the ignorant; they too have their story.” ― Max Ehrmann, Desiderata.