#SBG 5/12/21: The worst hand? – 7 and 2 – off suite.

Ref: CASA promises self-declared medical reform?? – Let’s do the timewarp again!! & GA Inquiry witnesses rating – From Gold Star (chocfrog) to WOFTAM??  & https://auntypru.com/wp-content/uploads/…sion-1.pdf & https://www.youtube.com/user/004wercras/…shelf_id=0 

The worst hand? – 7 and 2 – off suite. – AP forum version

Not too many card games can be won with 7 and 2 ‘off suite’; not too many at all. Mostly; you would simply fold and lose only the ante – the odds against are roughly equal to surviving a round of Russian roulette; the first time, few turn up for a rematch. Of course, there’s always Roulette; but with two zero’s on the wheel and a working knowledge of basic mathematics; if the first ‘spin’ don’t lead you to a second; it is definitely time to find a quiet bar and congenial company. “Click” the fool is off on a tangent.

But am I? As the BRB ‘Bookie’ – my job is to work out the ‘odds’ – mathematically – of a ‘thing’ actually winning (fascinating maths). Say Thorny thinks part XYZ of Part 61 has every chance of being ‘modified’ to reflect operational sanity. Or P2 reckons ABC will happen before the election is called. Then; I must set to work and arrange a ‘Tote’ board; other BRB and IOS members may bet their Choc Frogs on the outcome.

Bear with me here, an example is needed; Part 119 will suffice equally as well as 61 or even medicals – it makes no differ. Pick your favourite ‘Regulation’ wait until the cards land and you will see a 7 and a two off suite hand. History is against you, the statistics are, definitely against you: lady luck is in the other room and Murphy is sat next to you. A stacked deck; a confection, a litany of time wasted and foregone conclusion. You cannot; consistently beat a ‘dud’ hand.  History, boys and girls – history and the facts are a’gin ya. Fact. Take Part 119 as example of how you cannot beat the book. The invitation is made to attend and participate; “consultation” – Ye Gods a chance to ‘debate’ a regulation – make suggestions – put forward a point of view – perhaps even make CASA hear the call. I will take all your Choc frogs on that one simple bet. You put heart, mind, time, effort and operational expertise; all of it, into a logical argument; spend hours talking, dollars travelling etc. Yet the ‘odds’ are against you; you have just taken a safety pin to a gun fight. One may rant and rave and be very clever after the event on social media; raise the roof in the Pub; no doubt good for the soul – but will it change the cold hard facts of mathematics or history or the way CASA ‘do business? NO; it will not. The short answer is ‘fold’ – boycott – don’t play.

---

“What, wouldst thou have a serpent sting thee twice? “― William Shakespeare, The Merchant of Venice

---

As both history and fact clearly and unequivocally have defined, on multiple occasions, that CASA have indeed ‘consulted’ and then gone on their merry way to do exactly as pleased ’em best – having developed ‘ways and means’ from the very people they allowed to sit at the table to side step any and all objection. This quite apart from having expert opinion gifted for free by the willing chumps who sat down in good faith. Shame on this industry.

---

Ref: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/ge…8b8ea1e9b9

“The expression fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me has its origins in the 1600s. The idea is found in a book written by Anthony Weldon in 1651, The Court and Character of King James: “The Italians having a Proverb, ‘He that deceives me once, its his fault; but if twice, its my fault.”

---

Then; there is the matter of Ms Pip Spence to consider. I have (for my sins) sat through one BRB and one off IOS this week – (won the darts by the by). The numbers speak louder and better than I ever could produce in mangled prose. In the beginning there was ‘mild’ surprise at the appointment- however; bet against that was the, now proven, somewhat whimsical belief, that the PM&C and the DoIT had seen the carnage CASA created and put a ‘supported wedge’ into the mix to bring restraint and sanity back to aviation management and regulation. I took bets on it being fact. Once again, the ‘Bookie’ cleaned up. It was never going to happen. Spence is, and will remain, nothing more than a ‘stop-gap’ – a circuit breaker; good for one pop before being replaced. In six months all we have had is three (or is it four) of the silliest, soppy, dibble letters ever spouted by a ‘DAS’ and we have, over the years, seen some ‘doozy’s’. She looks, talks and acts like a sheep in the headlights – no idea. That we could forgive. But the gross insult to industry intelligence, expertise and knowledge will – forever – be a shame to this government.

---

Ref: https://auntypru.com/wp-content/uploads/…tion-2.pdf & https://auntypru.com/wp-content/uploads/…ndum-1.pdf

Ref: https://www.kingston.vic.gov.au/Communit…ort-Safety

“Social media gives legions of idiots the right to speak when they once only spoke at a bar after a glass of wine, without harming the community … but now they have the same right to speak as a Nobel Prize winner. It’s the invasion of the idiots”― Umberto Eco

---

Few, if any in this industry are stupid. even fewer have a child like belief that a bipartisan parliament cares about the fate of a once vibrant, flourishing industry now being decimated by the world’s worst law and building on the space needed to work, operate and KEEP PASSENGERS SAFE, by not hitting the obscene concrete monstrosities parked in escape routes and on Commonwealth land reserved for the development and growth of aviation enterprise. That is what the ACT expected – ain’t it? A prospering industry on Commonwealth property – serving this nation. Spence looks, sounds and writes like a Chook – recently hit in the head with a shovel. The election cometh – lots work in aviation – want their vote? Then; get off your bipartisan arse and do something. Waive Angel Flight restrictions; reinstate Buckley; bring in Class 2 medicals for all; do what you like; but, for pities sake –  bring in a DAS with a clue as to exactly – which end the smoke comes out of.

---

“Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.” ― Mark Twain

---

No matter – all knocked off for Christmas; well paid, well protected – off on a well earned break; nary a thought spared for the poor child facing a first NT wet season in a 30 y.o. airframe – not scared of the weather, of terrain – but of what may have been missed in law which could land said aeronautical child in gaol. It is not only a bloody mess and a buggers muddle, it is attracting some serious international condemnation. Is ICAO watching? You bet it is ….SP = Even Money.

But far removed from the duplicity of government agencies, the dissolute powers, the mad dreams of CASA and the fear inherent in politicians; I have a question to which I have sought an answer for many years. In my workshop, I ‘finish’ pieces made with all manner of ‘stuff’ – Shellac; wax, French polish, varnish, stain, even rotten Estapol – hardly ever get my paws dirty, let alone sticky – but bloody paint! What is it with this stuff? “Can you please paint it Pink?” begs the small faerie princess, owner of a small, recently made dresser. I now have one dog with pink ears; pink cat footprints across some fairly expensive Mahogany, pink daubs on both #5 and #4½ bench planes, pink elbows, multiple pink fingers and I also had a ‘Wee- wee’ – so:: no prizes for guessing what else. Aye well – I’m late – hot tongue and cold shoulder await; but first – there’s a breeze from the river; a siren song, summer warming the orchard, no boots, jacket or hat required. Away beasts – moonlight and the river’s song shall soothe and charm the cares of these tawdry thoughts away.

How sweet the moonlight sleeps upon this bank!

Here will we sit and let the sounds of music

Creep in our ears: soft stillness and the night

Become the touches of sweet harmony.

Sit, Jessica. Look how the floor of heaven

Is thick inlaid with patines of bright gold:

– Lorenzo, Act V, Scene 1
― William Shakespeare, The Merchant of Venice

Selah .-.