On a wing and a prayer..
P2 - “Wonder what the ferry operator's EPs are for a capsized Emerald class vessel with 300 odd POB in the Sydney harbour heads..
I took a very quick look at the RFFS services available on Sydney Harbour; although being hampered by a lack of insight and operational experience, it seems as though the services are there, in good order and competent. The 'training' in safety for crew seems to be well managed and documented, particularly the AMSA input. So, it seems that in an emergency situation there is an adequate supply of assistance, rescue and recovery available from folk who know what they are about. On the other hand, I have done my share of sailing and been involved with the chaos when a boat has been 'in trouble' in big seas and know how very quickly it can go from risky to downright dangerous.
Pilots and cabin crew know and understand the difficulties associated with being fully clothed (boots and all), in the water and attempting to load a fully clothed passenger onto a life raft. Part of the deal, every year – we call 'em 'the wet drills'. Tough stuff, and not everyone is a 'strong' swimmer or calm in an emergency. Think shocked, panicked, fully clothed passengers and a capsized boat. (Shudder).
Now, for the 'ifs and buts'. Numbers first – what are the chances of a high wind, high seas day on the harbour? Of those days how many would pose a serious risk to a ferry plodding along to Manly? We don't really know; but we can rely on the Masters to know. Same as pilots? Do they have the same final say? The same latitude in decision making? Are they allowed to exercise that right, without fear or retribution?
What are the mathematical chances of systems failure at a critical moment? In an aircraft highly unlikely; particularly unlikely in any of the 'flight control' systems or in the structural integrity of the aircraft. These are made as robust as possible, rigorously tested, and where possible backed up. I've always thought it is a good thing that passengers cannot 'see' the air in motion; if you think the sea can get get wild and scary; don't even think about the dynamics of moving air.
The point is a simple one: when the structural integrity of a vessel is suspect; when the steering system is proven unreliable; when the element in which the vessel is required to operate is beyond the design capability – would you operate it? Aircraft get a hammering – on occasion – does the crew need to worry about structural integrity – no, not if the limitations are observed; does the crew need to be concerned that the control system may or may not work at a critical juncture, no, provided the limitations are observed. Why, well the testing and certification standards allow for 'worst' case' reliability demonstrated and a percentage over the top of that.
A ferry carrying hundreds of people, multiple times a day on a mill pond can have the odd failure and no one need get overly concerned. But when it become thousands of people a day, across a body of water which can and does get 'rough' in vessels which are beginning to show signs of 'structural' weakness, revealing 'light weight' construction, combined with multiple 'control' problems; then perhaps it is time to reduce the percentage chances of a serious event to a sensible number.
Backing the wrong horse in a race may cost you your shirt; backing the wrong vehicle in any form of public transport would cost an election; a fortune in payouts and everlasting infamy for every death arising from the event (can't claim 'accident' - no way!). There is no 'bullet proof' escape clause; not when the problems are identified; reporting has been downgraded (tick and flick) and certainly not for those who should be out there ensuring that the ferries are as safe as skill, technology and money can make them. Not even those deep within the sheltered halls of government quangos can avoid being haunted; should the worst happen. Expect the worst; hope for the best; always a good notion. Just saying - denial , deflection, spin and obfuscation can only get you so far when the chips (ships) are down...
Toot – toot...
P2 - “Wonder what the ferry operator's EPs are for a capsized Emerald class vessel with 300 odd POB in the Sydney harbour heads..
I took a very quick look at the RFFS services available on Sydney Harbour; although being hampered by a lack of insight and operational experience, it seems as though the services are there, in good order and competent. The 'training' in safety for crew seems to be well managed and documented, particularly the AMSA input. So, it seems that in an emergency situation there is an adequate supply of assistance, rescue and recovery available from folk who know what they are about. On the other hand, I have done my share of sailing and been involved with the chaos when a boat has been 'in trouble' in big seas and know how very quickly it can go from risky to downright dangerous.
Pilots and cabin crew know and understand the difficulties associated with being fully clothed (boots and all), in the water and attempting to load a fully clothed passenger onto a life raft. Part of the deal, every year – we call 'em 'the wet drills'. Tough stuff, and not everyone is a 'strong' swimmer or calm in an emergency. Think shocked, panicked, fully clothed passengers and a capsized boat. (Shudder).
Now, for the 'ifs and buts'. Numbers first – what are the chances of a high wind, high seas day on the harbour? Of those days how many would pose a serious risk to a ferry plodding along to Manly? We don't really know; but we can rely on the Masters to know. Same as pilots? Do they have the same final say? The same latitude in decision making? Are they allowed to exercise that right, without fear or retribution?
What are the mathematical chances of systems failure at a critical moment? In an aircraft highly unlikely; particularly unlikely in any of the 'flight control' systems or in the structural integrity of the aircraft. These are made as robust as possible, rigorously tested, and where possible backed up. I've always thought it is a good thing that passengers cannot 'see' the air in motion; if you think the sea can get get wild and scary; don't even think about the dynamics of moving air.
The point is a simple one: when the structural integrity of a vessel is suspect; when the steering system is proven unreliable; when the element in which the vessel is required to operate is beyond the design capability – would you operate it? Aircraft get a hammering – on occasion – does the crew need to worry about structural integrity – no, not if the limitations are observed; does the crew need to be concerned that the control system may or may not work at a critical juncture, no, provided the limitations are observed. Why, well the testing and certification standards allow for 'worst' case' reliability demonstrated and a percentage over the top of that.
A ferry carrying hundreds of people, multiple times a day on a mill pond can have the odd failure and no one need get overly concerned. But when it become thousands of people a day, across a body of water which can and does get 'rough' in vessels which are beginning to show signs of 'structural' weakness, revealing 'light weight' construction, combined with multiple 'control' problems; then perhaps it is time to reduce the percentage chances of a serious event to a sensible number.
Backing the wrong horse in a race may cost you your shirt; backing the wrong vehicle in any form of public transport would cost an election; a fortune in payouts and everlasting infamy for every death arising from the event (can't claim 'accident' - no way!). There is no 'bullet proof' escape clause; not when the problems are identified; reporting has been downgraded (tick and flick) and certainly not for those who should be out there ensuring that the ferries are as safe as skill, technology and money can make them. Not even those deep within the sheltered halls of government quangos can avoid being haunted; should the worst happen. Expect the worst; hope for the best; always a good notion. Just saying - denial , deflection, spin and obfuscation can only get you so far when the chips (ships) are down...
Toot – toot...