But - Can we blame the weather man?
Or, is it us these days who are simply not weather aware?
Way back in time, as part of the DoE scheme (award) Fell walking morphed into rock climbing, which progressed (quite naturally) to mountains. We nearly always had access to a sailing dingy and as time went by, the odd motorcycle excursion was in order - saved heaps on train fare to the foreigners mountains - QED. It became a religion of a sort to watch the weather patterns: we knew all the sea (fishing) areas mentioned in the BBC broadcasts to 'those at sea' and got to be quite good at avoiding getting trapped up a cliff face or out in the dingy when the weather was liquid, lousy and Brass monkeys. Just lucky I guess. This self education spoon fed the hunger and interest in the science and mystique of aviation weather analysis. This was aided and abetted by the 'Met Man' in the briefing office; who, no matter where you pulled up, was always willing to expand, explain and assist with what to reasonably expect in flight and at destination. Fascinating.
I don't know if today's computer generated forecasts are any better or worse than the 'old' style - the percentage 'chance' based on recorded data is mathematically probably accurate; but it lacks the 'penetration' of a Met officer who mentions "keep an eye on the temperature down there; gets below 16c then these things will change - ". It made us all very 'aware' that things could, and often did not go quite to script. To pay 'attention' and to not worry too much about being 'legal' but operationally able and to make informed decisions against 'their' experience; rather than our own limited, small experience version.
There was another element which should be mentioned - the instructing pilots. Nav 1 - head down, flat out juggling the plan, map, prayer wheel, pencil and pen and aircraft (which refused to stay on height and heading when needed) - (and smiling - a lot) came the question - 'what if' and a weather scenario was sketched - "what ya gonna do"? Struggle for answer and blurt out half baked response (off heading already) "Ah yes" says this worthy - "but if that happens the route you have nominated will be worse than than this; because" - explanation followed. Nav 2 - forewarned, chat with the Met man - alternate plan formulated, noted on the back of the plan - ready to go. "That's more like it' says my worthy - "but what about XYX". Still on height and heading the discussion continued - just long enough for me to miss a reporting point. And so it went on - Such are the trials and tribulation of the neophyte. In later years, those discussions with Met man and instructor kept me not only out of harms way (mostly) but built an 'active' defence mechanism which served very well indeed, for the most part.
Don't us aged folk take a while to get to the point - but, that's why we are now aged, hoping booze and bad living don't carry us off. But, say you fly the same routes day in day out; after a while, you get to know the wrinkles; when there will be traffic; when there's a wind change which is the best approach and best shot at getting in; how to weigh your knowledge of local conditions against the soulless Met report; when to push, when to cry off; routine for line flying. Nevertheless; anything with which you are not 'familiar' is just like driving in a strange city for the first time, even with the navigation system helping - you are still a little 'at sea' until the local traps and tricks are known. Same - same with random cross country flying - you simply don't know what you don't know. Grabbing a quick downloaded forecast and then just hoping for the best, without expecting the worst is a fools errand. Remember; always; Murphy is no mans friend.
Yus, my boy; I will have another. Cheers and thank you.....
Or, is it us these days who are simply not weather aware?
Way back in time, as part of the DoE scheme (award) Fell walking morphed into rock climbing, which progressed (quite naturally) to mountains. We nearly always had access to a sailing dingy and as time went by, the odd motorcycle excursion was in order - saved heaps on train fare to the foreigners mountains - QED. It became a religion of a sort to watch the weather patterns: we knew all the sea (fishing) areas mentioned in the BBC broadcasts to 'those at sea' and got to be quite good at avoiding getting trapped up a cliff face or out in the dingy when the weather was liquid, lousy and Brass monkeys. Just lucky I guess. This self education spoon fed the hunger and interest in the science and mystique of aviation weather analysis. This was aided and abetted by the 'Met Man' in the briefing office; who, no matter where you pulled up, was always willing to expand, explain and assist with what to reasonably expect in flight and at destination. Fascinating.
I don't know if today's computer generated forecasts are any better or worse than the 'old' style - the percentage 'chance' based on recorded data is mathematically probably accurate; but it lacks the 'penetration' of a Met officer who mentions "keep an eye on the temperature down there; gets below 16c then these things will change - ". It made us all very 'aware' that things could, and often did not go quite to script. To pay 'attention' and to not worry too much about being 'legal' but operationally able and to make informed decisions against 'their' experience; rather than our own limited, small experience version.
There was another element which should be mentioned - the instructing pilots. Nav 1 - head down, flat out juggling the plan, map, prayer wheel, pencil and pen and aircraft (which refused to stay on height and heading when needed) - (and smiling - a lot) came the question - 'what if' and a weather scenario was sketched - "what ya gonna do"? Struggle for answer and blurt out half baked response (off heading already) "Ah yes" says this worthy - "but if that happens the route you have nominated will be worse than than this; because" - explanation followed. Nav 2 - forewarned, chat with the Met man - alternate plan formulated, noted on the back of the plan - ready to go. "That's more like it' says my worthy - "but what about XYX". Still on height and heading the discussion continued - just long enough for me to miss a reporting point. And so it went on - Such are the trials and tribulation of the neophyte. In later years, those discussions with Met man and instructor kept me not only out of harms way (mostly) but built an 'active' defence mechanism which served very well indeed, for the most part.
Don't us aged folk take a while to get to the point - but, that's why we are now aged, hoping booze and bad living don't carry us off. But, say you fly the same routes day in day out; after a while, you get to know the wrinkles; when there will be traffic; when there's a wind change which is the best approach and best shot at getting in; how to weigh your knowledge of local conditions against the soulless Met report; when to push, when to cry off; routine for line flying. Nevertheless; anything with which you are not 'familiar' is just like driving in a strange city for the first time, even with the navigation system helping - you are still a little 'at sea' until the local traps and tricks are known. Same - same with random cross country flying - you simply don't know what you don't know. Grabbing a quick downloaded forecast and then just hoping for the best, without expecting the worst is a fools errand. Remember; always; Murphy is no mans friend.
Yus, my boy; I will have another. Cheers and thank you.....