Fair Call – However:-
P2 –“Note in figure 2 that there would have presumably been much scud running and even at times penetration of cloud, yet never does the pilot's manoeuvrings approach any where near uncontrolled, reckless AOB or pitch movements suggestive of a VFR pilot panicking because he has inadvertently entered IMC.”
Devils advocate right back atchya. Noted. Discuss; – the aircraft was certified for IFR. Feasible that there was a serviceable auto pilot on board and no doubt GPS. ATSB don’t think it worthwhile to mention how the aircraft was equipped. I can easily see someone at one of the ‘confidence’ benchmarks (500 hours), underestimating the inherent ‘risks’, overestimating their ability, backed up by auto flight and GPS accuracy taking a punt. Those patterns are very, very neat. There are two small clues to this being at least a start point for discussion:-
(1) “ATSB – Witnesses reported that the pilot then conducted a go around after initially touching down on runway 36, and witnesses reported then seeing the aircraft climb back into cloud.
Why? If it had been me, and I’d touched down after an approach like that (unlikely) there’d be no-way I’d go around, back into the murk. More likely I’d be behind the shed having a smoke, trying to sooth agitated nerve endings.
(2) “ATSB - The pilot then broadcast on the CTAF ‘going around for runway 24’. After another two low-level turns over the airport, in which the aircraft was captured emerging from the cloud on closed-circuit television (CCTV) at low altitude, the aircraft landed on runway 29 at about 1008.
Now he’s called for R24 and landed R29. IMO that is a clue to some sort of geographical disorientation – switched on bloke would have called the change – had he been aware of it.
Just saying…. There’s room for speculation on the approach pattern. The departure (as depicted) does appear to indicate a very small time period between what appears to be a controlled, descending left turn and the accident site. Hard to tell from the awful schematic, but; 200 feet a minute (FpM) descent rate is only 3.33 FpS. 600 FpM is 10 feet per second. 1200 FpM is 20 feet per second. So, ten seconds at 1200 FpM = 200 feet. That brings a descent angle of about 60˚+/-. Good-Oh, ATSB reckon 30˚from vertical.
ATSB – “Ground scars and evidence from the wreckage indicated that the aircraft impacted the ground nose down in an inverted attitude, approximately 30° from vertical, and that the engine was producing power at the time of impact.”
For the sake of discussion only: what if the trusty Auto Pilot gave up the ghost, in cloud? Is there enough time lapse for the pilot to not recognise an attitude change, become disoriented and loose control? You can imagine it happening – stressed pilot, believes the AP is running the show, peering out of the window, looking for breaks in weather – then the ‘Oh- crap’ moment when reality dawns – too late.
So glad ATSB didn’t bother to interrupt their hysterical investigator's ‘Air time’ to bother looking into possible causes; after all as she stated in her TV 15 moments of fame, we will be investigating Angel Flight (submission to CASA following) – and they did. I cheered when Rex Patrick pulled the Soppy, so Sympatico Hood up when he dared to blame the Senate for forcing them to look at ‘operators’ rather than flight crew – as they did in the disgraceful Pel-Air investigation. The crazy thing, which clearly demonstrates just how sycophantic ATSB under Hood has become is that they have gone after not once, but twice the wrong Fox. Pel-Air operator deserved a hammering; AF don’t. The Pel--Air pilot got flogged; all of the Mt Gambier pilot’s aberrations have become Angel Flight’s; who, by the way ain't an 'operator'.................
Hood needs to sort his carts and horses out methinks. Aye well, we shall hear what the Senate Committee think of it all in due course. Let’s hope they are not baffled by the Bullshit in another awful report; one of the many we have read lately; or not, depending whether the PR crew and Spin Doctors have finished applying the polish. A No Confidence call in the ATSB would be well justified and supported.
Toot – toot.
P2 –“Note in figure 2 that there would have presumably been much scud running and even at times penetration of cloud, yet never does the pilot's manoeuvrings approach any where near uncontrolled, reckless AOB or pitch movements suggestive of a VFR pilot panicking because he has inadvertently entered IMC.”
Devils advocate right back atchya. Noted. Discuss; – the aircraft was certified for IFR. Feasible that there was a serviceable auto pilot on board and no doubt GPS. ATSB don’t think it worthwhile to mention how the aircraft was equipped. I can easily see someone at one of the ‘confidence’ benchmarks (500 hours), underestimating the inherent ‘risks’, overestimating their ability, backed up by auto flight and GPS accuracy taking a punt. Those patterns are very, very neat. There are two small clues to this being at least a start point for discussion:-
(1) “ATSB – Witnesses reported that the pilot then conducted a go around after initially touching down on runway 36, and witnesses reported then seeing the aircraft climb back into cloud.
Why? If it had been me, and I’d touched down after an approach like that (unlikely) there’d be no-way I’d go around, back into the murk. More likely I’d be behind the shed having a smoke, trying to sooth agitated nerve endings.
(2) “ATSB - The pilot then broadcast on the CTAF ‘going around for runway 24’. After another two low-level turns over the airport, in which the aircraft was captured emerging from the cloud on closed-circuit television (CCTV) at low altitude, the aircraft landed on runway 29 at about 1008.
Now he’s called for R24 and landed R29. IMO that is a clue to some sort of geographical disorientation – switched on bloke would have called the change – had he been aware of it.
Just saying…. There’s room for speculation on the approach pattern. The departure (as depicted) does appear to indicate a very small time period between what appears to be a controlled, descending left turn and the accident site. Hard to tell from the awful schematic, but; 200 feet a minute (FpM) descent rate is only 3.33 FpS. 600 FpM is 10 feet per second. 1200 FpM is 20 feet per second. So, ten seconds at 1200 FpM = 200 feet. That brings a descent angle of about 60˚+/-. Good-Oh, ATSB reckon 30˚from vertical.
ATSB – “Ground scars and evidence from the wreckage indicated that the aircraft impacted the ground nose down in an inverted attitude, approximately 30° from vertical, and that the engine was producing power at the time of impact.”
For the sake of discussion only: what if the trusty Auto Pilot gave up the ghost, in cloud? Is there enough time lapse for the pilot to not recognise an attitude change, become disoriented and loose control? You can imagine it happening – stressed pilot, believes the AP is running the show, peering out of the window, looking for breaks in weather – then the ‘Oh- crap’ moment when reality dawns – too late.
So glad ATSB didn’t bother to interrupt their hysterical investigator's ‘Air time’ to bother looking into possible causes; after all as she stated in her TV 15 moments of fame, we will be investigating Angel Flight (submission to CASA following) – and they did. I cheered when Rex Patrick pulled the Soppy, so Sympatico Hood up when he dared to blame the Senate for forcing them to look at ‘operators’ rather than flight crew – as they did in the disgraceful Pel-Air investigation. The crazy thing, which clearly demonstrates just how sycophantic ATSB under Hood has become is that they have gone after not once, but twice the wrong Fox. Pel-Air operator deserved a hammering; AF don’t. The Pel--Air pilot got flogged; all of the Mt Gambier pilot’s aberrations have become Angel Flight’s; who, by the way ain't an 'operator'.................
Hood needs to sort his carts and horses out methinks. Aye well, we shall hear what the Senate Committee think of it all in due course. Let’s hope they are not baffled by the Bullshit in another awful report; one of the many we have read lately; or not, depending whether the PR crew and Spin Doctors have finished applying the polish. A No Confidence call in the ATSB would be well justified and supported.
Toot – toot.