[ventus45]

Now, just this morning, "S25" sent a new e-mail, as follows:

Ventus45

I have five documents to send, however, I will have to do it in three installments because they add up to over 12 Megabytes. In fact one graphics is over six Megabytes which I am hoping will be OK.

I hope you do not mind my sharing with you some thought provoking material for you to wake up to.

The first attachment are extracts from the 26 June 2014 ATSB Report “MH370 – Definition of Underwater Search Areas”.  
http://www.mediafire.com/download/dk6a11...tracts.pdf

The PDF extracts are pages 25 to 29 and page 42 of that report.  As depicted in the extracted pages starting from locations on the 1941 BTO arc, using various search assumptions, the paths with the highest correlation for Analyses A, B, and C all center on 97.5 degrees East Longitude.  Figure 27, which is based on BFOs with 5 Hz tolerance and fixed frequency bias, also centers on 97.5E.  Consequently, the priority (Orange) search area depicted in Figure 37 uses a similar 97.5E centroid.  However, when the ATSB Strategic Search Working Group was repeatedly  asked what happened during the period from 18:25 to 19:41 no one had a logical answer.  That is why 19:41 was selected as the initial analysis starting point.



Consequently, when the 8 October 2014 “MH370 Flight Path Update” was released it contained the following Summary:

“Following the release of the June report,  MH370 – Definition of Underwater Search Areas, further refinement of the satellite communications (SATCOM) data and analysis has been ongoing.  A combination of a better understanding of the ground initiated telephone call messages and a refined SATCOM system model both indicate that an area further south on the 7th arc search should be prioritized.  Although of reasonably high confidence, and relatively large, this area does not contain all the possible derived paths.  This area is intended to be the focus of activities for the initial deployment of the underwater search assets.

Additionally, work is continuing with ongoing examination and analysis of the SATCOM data and end-of-flight scenarios or simulations which may affect the dimensions or flight path probabilities within the search area.  The ongoing refinement may result in changes to search asset deployment.”

Such was born the FINAL MAJOR TURN (FMT) and all of its consequences.  The Independent Group did not help matters by their incessant championing of the FMT and the “Ghost Flight”.

A further  statement in the report is as follows:  “This update presents recent results from analysis of SATCOM data and information from unanswered ground-to-air telephone call 17 minutes after the last radar information.  The update provides a key input to the ATSB’s planning and direction of current underwater search activities to locate MH370 in the Southern Indian Ocean.  This update should be read in conjunction with the June report.”

During 2014 a very good analyst named YAP, Fook Fah, an Assistant Professor at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, did some outstanding work and produced what I still consider to be the best BTO/BFO calculator, which I still use to verify my own methodology results.  I think he became disillusioned with all of the illogical theories posted on the Duncan Steel site and after that the Jeffrey Wise blog.

http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/mffyap/web/index.htm

http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/mffyap/web/research.htm

http://www.ntu.edu.sg/Pages/home.aspx

The only other publication subsequent to 2014 by Professor YAP, that I am aware of, was on the Duncan Steel website on 14 April 2016.  The document is titled “Consideration of a Controlled Ditch Scenario for MH370”.  It is a good read even though it pertains to the current ATSB search area.

http://www.duncansteel.com/archives/date/2016/04

I am attaching Version 1 of Professor YAP’s calculator which he released on 9 August 2014.  
http://www.mediafire.com/download/w9uizq...g2014.xlsx
He created a path from 18:25 to 19:41 which used true courses and ground speeds that were improbable.  However, his 19:41 position on the BTO arc was quite good.  From the 19:41 point he used small true course changes along with a constant 457.5 knot ground speed to navigate southeast down to the 7th arc at 00:19:00.  His position at the 7th arc was -31.4467S, 96.9044E.  Remarkably, this position is only about 4 nautical miles from the position I arrived at on my Yellow Route in March 2015 (-31.381, 96.917)!!!  What is surprising is that we each approached the problem using entirely different methodologies and techniques.

The final set of attachments are intriguing.  
One is of the ATSB’s 27 October 2014 Progressive Bathymetric Survey Map.  
https://www.atsb.gov.au/media/5168463/Pr...ct2014.jpg
The second attachment is the ATSB’s 29 October 2014 Progressive Bathymetric Survey Map.  
https://www.atsb.gov.au/media/5169605/pr...ct2014.jpg

You will notice in the 27 October 2014 map that there is the start of a cutout near the Broken Ridge Trench.  However, in the 29 October 2014 map the cutout is fully shown with a surveyed block extending southeast of the cutout.  I asked the SSWG if this surveyed block was real or just an artifact.  I never did get an answer.  

Now here is the interesting part that is presented in the final attachment.  



The Yellow Route 7th arc terminal point (black square) was the initial point used to extend the track 85 nautical mile to represent a terminal glide from 26,000 feet.  The surface wind was from the south (184/15) so the aircraft would have travelled nearly due south to take advantage of the 15 knot surface headwind in the ditching maneuver.  The headwind slows the groundspeed of the aircraft by a near equal amount.  There is also a ground effect which allows  a further slowing down by creating a cushion of air which delays a stall.  Impact is equal to mass times velocity, therefore, every foot-per-second that can be reduced in the collision does matter.  Notice that the 85 nautical glide point (black dot) plots inside the offset block.  

Is it a coincidence or for real??  

If the offset is real then it begs the question ‘what were they surveying in the trench??’.  The Trench is 17,000 feet deep at that point!!

Warm Regards,
S25


Added by V45:
And why was there an additional "east west scan" between October and December 2014?

Glide Point-Annotated.jpg Size: 255.66 KB  Downloads: 198

S25-additional-scan.jpg Size: 380.76 KB  Downloads: 184