Repeat after me: “No good deed goes unpunished”. Spence and the Minister know that. There is no kudos in reform. Gratitude (Of the industry) is the shortest lived human emotion. There is not a hope in hell that meaningful change of any import to the industry as a whole is going to happen…..yet.
Of course there is going to be the impression of change; I seem to recall a lot of noise about “business transformation” and “electronic service delivery” and suchlike jargon and I can confirm as a former purveyor of such very expensive malarkey that it won’t change what matters most: the power relationship between the industry and the regulator. It is ironic that CASA, an institution that exists to purportedly manage risk, has destroyed the aviation industry by increasing the risks of any and all industry participants to impossible levels.
Let’s be clear. Risk is what it’s all about. Risk is the regulators raison d’être. It’s stated objective is public safety - minimizing risk to the general public. However it has chosen to achieve this by maximising risk to every industry participant! Let’s be clear about those risks, they are laid out in detail in Government review after review; there is the risk of alleged capricious closure and destruction of any aviation related business (example APTA), there is the risk of the alleged capricious destruction of aviation related careers (Butson/Polaire, Quadrio, Dominic James, Glen Buckley and a host of others), and there is the risk of becoming a felon, and all that it entails, from arbitrary capricious prosecution for a harmless mistake, which applies to every single person who has the temerity to lay hands on an aeroplane, any aeroplane, for any reason. A smart regulator would first try and quantify risk, minimize it, then apportion the remainder. CASA deliberately won’t take this approach, instead it’s actions work to increase risk - which ultimately will lead to its own demise………but not yet.
Let me tell you what happens next. Under the weight of impossibly complex, meaningless, pointless, arbitrary, vindictive, costly and contradictory regulation, capriciously applied, parts of the industry start looking for “workarounds” that allow it to survive. These will often take the form of officially sanctioned “exemptions” or more ominously, private understandings between industry participants and individuals. Eventually “presents” will be expected and given. The sheer complexity of the regulations leaves too much room for interpretation - enabling this trade. Declining technical skills on all sides ensure that real risks aren’t perceived let alone managed.
A portion of the industry will attempt to flout regulation by various devices. Another portion will ignore them. The skills, training and experience levels within industry and regulator will decline because of perceived criminal sanctions for error as well as better remuneration elsewhere - for example, I know a helicopter pilot who now works as a mine safety manager. The outcome from this is that nobody cares what the regulations say, still less tries to apply them. It’s all too hard. Strategy now deteriorates to simply not being caught. Intelligent individuals looking for a flying career or recreation perceive what’s happening and become professional dog groomers or take up golf. Intending aviation investors decide dog grooming salons are a more lucrative than flight training, charter or aviation maintenance businesses. Intending recreational flyers join golf clubs instead. Owners of corporate class aircraft migrate them to the American FAA register to escape what has become a rotten third world system. Airlines do the same.
The ATSB, who might have sounded the alarm, fails to intervene having surrendered its independence years ago. The situation deteriorates until a series of high profile accidents and ICAO, FAA or public enquiry reveals the mess to the Australian public. The ritual cries of “who coulda known?” are made, administrators are sacked and reform occurs. Pip Spence is left holding the bag if she has not yet moved on to a Departmental Secretary position. There will be no real “reform” until the general public perceive the system to be irretrievably broken and that ain’t going to happen any time soon.
The consulting mantra applies; “If it ain’t broken, don’t fix it”, “If you want to fix it, first break it, then fix it”.
It is already broken, the public just don’t know it yet.
Of course there is going to be the impression of change; I seem to recall a lot of noise about “business transformation” and “electronic service delivery” and suchlike jargon and I can confirm as a former purveyor of such very expensive malarkey that it won’t change what matters most: the power relationship between the industry and the regulator. It is ironic that CASA, an institution that exists to purportedly manage risk, has destroyed the aviation industry by increasing the risks of any and all industry participants to impossible levels.
Let’s be clear. Risk is what it’s all about. Risk is the regulators raison d’être. It’s stated objective is public safety - minimizing risk to the general public. However it has chosen to achieve this by maximising risk to every industry participant! Let’s be clear about those risks, they are laid out in detail in Government review after review; there is the risk of alleged capricious closure and destruction of any aviation related business (example APTA), there is the risk of the alleged capricious destruction of aviation related careers (Butson/Polaire, Quadrio, Dominic James, Glen Buckley and a host of others), and there is the risk of becoming a felon, and all that it entails, from arbitrary capricious prosecution for a harmless mistake, which applies to every single person who has the temerity to lay hands on an aeroplane, any aeroplane, for any reason. A smart regulator would first try and quantify risk, minimize it, then apportion the remainder. CASA deliberately won’t take this approach, instead it’s actions work to increase risk - which ultimately will lead to its own demise………but not yet.
Let me tell you what happens next. Under the weight of impossibly complex, meaningless, pointless, arbitrary, vindictive, costly and contradictory regulation, capriciously applied, parts of the industry start looking for “workarounds” that allow it to survive. These will often take the form of officially sanctioned “exemptions” or more ominously, private understandings between industry participants and individuals. Eventually “presents” will be expected and given. The sheer complexity of the regulations leaves too much room for interpretation - enabling this trade. Declining technical skills on all sides ensure that real risks aren’t perceived let alone managed.
A portion of the industry will attempt to flout regulation by various devices. Another portion will ignore them. The skills, training and experience levels within industry and regulator will decline because of perceived criminal sanctions for error as well as better remuneration elsewhere - for example, I know a helicopter pilot who now works as a mine safety manager. The outcome from this is that nobody cares what the regulations say, still less tries to apply them. It’s all too hard. Strategy now deteriorates to simply not being caught. Intelligent individuals looking for a flying career or recreation perceive what’s happening and become professional dog groomers or take up golf. Intending aviation investors decide dog grooming salons are a more lucrative than flight training, charter or aviation maintenance businesses. Intending recreational flyers join golf clubs instead. Owners of corporate class aircraft migrate them to the American FAA register to escape what has become a rotten third world system. Airlines do the same.
The ATSB, who might have sounded the alarm, fails to intervene having surrendered its independence years ago. The situation deteriorates until a series of high profile accidents and ICAO, FAA or public enquiry reveals the mess to the Australian public. The ritual cries of “who coulda known?” are made, administrators are sacked and reform occurs. Pip Spence is left holding the bag if she has not yet moved on to a Departmental Secretary position. There will be no real “reform” until the general public perceive the system to be irretrievably broken and that ain’t going to happen any time soon.
The consulting mantra applies; “If it ain’t broken, don’t fix it”, “If you want to fix it, first break it, then fix it”.
It is already broken, the public just don’t know it yet.