Meetyoureulogy.
I would really like to have a dollar in my pocket for every time I've heard the 'flight forecast' dismissed or denigrated. The BoM is a little to blame for this; the +/- tolerances; constant updating of 'computer' models rather than the input of trained observers 'on site' with specialised knowledge of the 'local' matrix a factor. Like many 'seasoned' drivers (airframe) I've been caught out many times; nothing too serious; additional fuel uplifted – not required; alternates planned for – not required etc – and the flip side – when the forecast was for 'OK' and it all turned to worms. “Expect the worst, hope for the best, but always plan for “salvation” is P7's mantra. We have a high fatality count of CFIT by non instrument rate pilots; fact. The latest _HERE – it being P2's nomination for the Darwin Award (a fair call). What is becoming apparent are two associated elements; both of which could be eliminated- and for once, the blame cannot be wholly sheeted home to CASA (IMO), not all of it. Consider the Tasmanian case: a qualified, competent pilot fell into an age old trap. Why? The valley the flight ended in was on the 'windward' side of some fairly high ground; orographic uplift was forecast; the top base of the cloud the 'sucker trap' – leading down to the serious stuff lurking below. The cloud was forming below and lowering as it went 'up hill'– Met lesson 101 (maybe 102) and a known killer. Seems to me the nub of the 'problem' is one of 'translation'. Pilots dutifully study their Met syllabus; pass the exam and almost immediately forget the theory taught in favour of seeking 'legal' compliance. Weather is dynamic, hugely powerful and subject to change at short notice. Legal compliance aside; there is a need for 'applied' theory to be part of pre flight planning; that's why they teach this stuff – passing an exam is one thing – intelligently applying the knowledge gained a vital prerequisite to safe flight. Do not forget your meteorology lessons; lest it become your eulogy.
ATSB - “A personal minimums checklist aids identifying and managing flight risks such as marginal weather conditions. It is an individual pilot’s own set of rules and criteria for deciding if and under what conditions to fly or to continue flying based on your knowledge, skills and experience.”
Nearly right; and, not too bad from ATSB; but the secret is 'the doors theory'. Back door, side door, front door and fire door. Sure push on a bit; set a minimum height for the sector based on what can be seen; hit the 'decision marker' and take one of the options – push on a bit longer if you will; BUT leave the back door open and clear. Enough from me; get an IR and you will discover that the same rule, the back door and fuel to get there applies even more. Know and understand the weather pattern you are dealing with. The real point, in fact, - is to understand that with which you are dealing, no more, no less.. End of ramble...
“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”
Fighter pilots???? - I note all manner of folk up in arms about 'fighter pilots' going to China to teach. Yep, it is a little unsavoury; but the outrage smacks of hypocrisy. Uhmm; how many Chinese pilots has Australia trained in recent years? How much money has been invested in and made from that training investment (not to mention the arse about ILS) all tax payer funded and the huge flight schools feeding off the bonanza those pilots brought to flight training. Pot. Kettle black methinks.
Is it just me; or are others starting to wonder about what the government message to the 'safety' authorities is. Seriously? Put the jig-saw puzzle together and it becomes a Dorian Grey canvas. Add it up; ASA, ATSB and CASA have seriously large budgets. There are some very serious questions to be answered by them all even without touching the 20/20 inquiry. A reasonable chap could expect at least some pointed questions being asked at Estimates; not only in relation to 'spending' but on some pretty damning operational matters. Nope; not even required to attend; nary a hand brake in sight and all manner of 'oddities' (for wont of better) which the 'industry' would like to be examined shuffled off. For example Spence and the Pixies in need of a serious redirection; EB Halfwit decimating the safety of commercial flights due to penny pinching, to recover the horrendous cost of his very own white elephant droppings. This before we even dare ask the ATSB what they are smoking. Even Albo's very own fuel levy, which was supposed to be a one off has never had a glove laid on it. Sterle cry's fowl as soon as Canavan tries to get to Taws. Bad policy we can live with – for a while – but for the cost involved and the lack of common sense to be ignored while an industry slowly withers away is a horse of a very different colour. Questions will be on notice to Senator Canavan, with supporting information: bet on it. For example:-
RA Oz has a prime selling point; to wit, self declared medicals. This is a serious commercial advantage. So why is RA Oz gifted a seat at the discussion related to CASA adopting world best practice for private medical options?
Why has ASA laid off so many on line controllers that TIBA is becoming a noted feature of airspace where commercial passenger flights operate?
Two men died in a rare 'mid-air' collision recently. ATSB declined to investigate; and RA Oz claim they can't afford to investigate. What if that had been two commercial aircraft in TIBA airspace? Why is the ATSB not investigating with a view to preventing any possibility of a recurrence; no matter the aircraft involved? That's two mid-air collisions recently; only seems reasonable to seek answers. Seems passing strange that our Wee bearded Popinjay has time to get his visage in the papers; can waste god's know how much on routine 'bird strikes' and other such mundane matters; but a mid-air – is only worth a press release – from Godley; who would not know a 'safety' matter if it jumped up and bit him on the arse. This 'Captain Kangaroo' needs to go....Now would be good.
“But nothing in India is identifiable, the mere asking of a question causes it to disappear and merge into something else.”
Before the 'modern' era; doors were made by men, not machines. It takes a long while and a great degree of skill to 'make' a door, flat, square and twist free. This week was great fun; repair and re-hang some really wonderful solid wood doors. I actually tried to price and then find timber to match; the price these days astronomical and not easily available. No matter we managed; I say we because of the size and weight of these doors, it took two of us to lift the things; the hinges massive in comparison, the slot headed screws a serious challenge. Anyway, job done but not much of a welcome home; dogs hacked off having to stay home; but the cat was bloody furious; not even DT can manage such a cold shoulder. Oh, and it has decided it likes Ale; put a pint down on the bench top and have to fight for it. I ask you; I put a little in a saucer for her – Nope; only the foam on the top of a fresh pint will do; payback I reckon; cat's eh? Who'd have 'em...
Selah.
I would really like to have a dollar in my pocket for every time I've heard the 'flight forecast' dismissed or denigrated. The BoM is a little to blame for this; the +/- tolerances; constant updating of 'computer' models rather than the input of trained observers 'on site' with specialised knowledge of the 'local' matrix a factor. Like many 'seasoned' drivers (airframe) I've been caught out many times; nothing too serious; additional fuel uplifted – not required; alternates planned for – not required etc – and the flip side – when the forecast was for 'OK' and it all turned to worms. “Expect the worst, hope for the best, but always plan for “salvation” is P7's mantra. We have a high fatality count of CFIT by non instrument rate pilots; fact. The latest _HERE – it being P2's nomination for the Darwin Award (a fair call). What is becoming apparent are two associated elements; both of which could be eliminated- and for once, the blame cannot be wholly sheeted home to CASA (IMO), not all of it. Consider the Tasmanian case: a qualified, competent pilot fell into an age old trap. Why? The valley the flight ended in was on the 'windward' side of some fairly high ground; orographic uplift was forecast; the top base of the cloud the 'sucker trap' – leading down to the serious stuff lurking below. The cloud was forming below and lowering as it went 'up hill'– Met lesson 101 (maybe 102) and a known killer. Seems to me the nub of the 'problem' is one of 'translation'. Pilots dutifully study their Met syllabus; pass the exam and almost immediately forget the theory taught in favour of seeking 'legal' compliance. Weather is dynamic, hugely powerful and subject to change at short notice. Legal compliance aside; there is a need for 'applied' theory to be part of pre flight planning; that's why they teach this stuff – passing an exam is one thing – intelligently applying the knowledge gained a vital prerequisite to safe flight. Do not forget your meteorology lessons; lest it become your eulogy.
ATSB - “A personal minimums checklist aids identifying and managing flight risks such as marginal weather conditions. It is an individual pilot’s own set of rules and criteria for deciding if and under what conditions to fly or to continue flying based on your knowledge, skills and experience.”
Nearly right; and, not too bad from ATSB; but the secret is 'the doors theory'. Back door, side door, front door and fire door. Sure push on a bit; set a minimum height for the sector based on what can be seen; hit the 'decision marker' and take one of the options – push on a bit longer if you will; BUT leave the back door open and clear. Enough from me; get an IR and you will discover that the same rule, the back door and fuel to get there applies even more. Know and understand the weather pattern you are dealing with. The real point, in fact, - is to understand that with which you are dealing, no more, no less.. End of ramble...
“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”
Fighter pilots???? - I note all manner of folk up in arms about 'fighter pilots' going to China to teach. Yep, it is a little unsavoury; but the outrage smacks of hypocrisy. Uhmm; how many Chinese pilots has Australia trained in recent years? How much money has been invested in and made from that training investment (not to mention the arse about ILS) all tax payer funded and the huge flight schools feeding off the bonanza those pilots brought to flight training. Pot. Kettle black methinks.
Is it just me; or are others starting to wonder about what the government message to the 'safety' authorities is. Seriously? Put the jig-saw puzzle together and it becomes a Dorian Grey canvas. Add it up; ASA, ATSB and CASA have seriously large budgets. There are some very serious questions to be answered by them all even without touching the 20/20 inquiry. A reasonable chap could expect at least some pointed questions being asked at Estimates; not only in relation to 'spending' but on some pretty damning operational matters. Nope; not even required to attend; nary a hand brake in sight and all manner of 'oddities' (for wont of better) which the 'industry' would like to be examined shuffled off. For example Spence and the Pixies in need of a serious redirection; EB Halfwit decimating the safety of commercial flights due to penny pinching, to recover the horrendous cost of his very own white elephant droppings. This before we even dare ask the ATSB what they are smoking. Even Albo's very own fuel levy, which was supposed to be a one off has never had a glove laid on it. Sterle cry's fowl as soon as Canavan tries to get to Taws. Bad policy we can live with – for a while – but for the cost involved and the lack of common sense to be ignored while an industry slowly withers away is a horse of a very different colour. Questions will be on notice to Senator Canavan, with supporting information: bet on it. For example:-
RA Oz has a prime selling point; to wit, self declared medicals. This is a serious commercial advantage. So why is RA Oz gifted a seat at the discussion related to CASA adopting world best practice for private medical options?
Why has ASA laid off so many on line controllers that TIBA is becoming a noted feature of airspace where commercial passenger flights operate?
Two men died in a rare 'mid-air' collision recently. ATSB declined to investigate; and RA Oz claim they can't afford to investigate. What if that had been two commercial aircraft in TIBA airspace? Why is the ATSB not investigating with a view to preventing any possibility of a recurrence; no matter the aircraft involved? That's two mid-air collisions recently; only seems reasonable to seek answers. Seems passing strange that our Wee bearded Popinjay has time to get his visage in the papers; can waste god's know how much on routine 'bird strikes' and other such mundane matters; but a mid-air – is only worth a press release – from Godley; who would not know a 'safety' matter if it jumped up and bit him on the arse. This 'Captain Kangaroo' needs to go....Now would be good.
“But nothing in India is identifiable, the mere asking of a question causes it to disappear and merge into something else.”
Before the 'modern' era; doors were made by men, not machines. It takes a long while and a great degree of skill to 'make' a door, flat, square and twist free. This week was great fun; repair and re-hang some really wonderful solid wood doors. I actually tried to price and then find timber to match; the price these days astronomical and not easily available. No matter we managed; I say we because of the size and weight of these doors, it took two of us to lift the things; the hinges massive in comparison, the slot headed screws a serious challenge. Anyway, job done but not much of a welcome home; dogs hacked off having to stay home; but the cat was bloody furious; not even DT can manage such a cold shoulder. Oh, and it has decided it likes Ale; put a pint down on the bench top and have to fight for it. I ask you; I put a little in a saucer for her – Nope; only the foam on the top of a fresh pint will do; payback I reckon; cat's eh? Who'd have 'em...
Selah.