High 25°C - Low 14°C.
With your indulgence M'lud, I shall construe. I ask that the following report from the ATSB - HERE - be carefully read and considered before we redirect our questions to the defendants.
There now, all done, then I shall begin: there are four entrants in the race to oblivion; Inexperienced Lad; Electronic Addiction; Overconfidence and Regulatory body; all short odds entrants to run a place. In primus, it must be said that the ATSB report was, when compared to other shoddy work, a breath of fresh air and not too shabby an effort; this despite being distracted by analysis of 'electronics' to make sense of a series of events. It was a base which needed to be covered; however. At Bankstown, on the day of departure there was, freely and unstintingly available two essential pre departure considerations - to wit, the ATIS and the humble ARFOR. Both, pre the electronic wizardry, the source of pre flight knowledge for aircrew. The average November temperatures at Bankstown are high 25/ low 14. Take the mean of those and arrive at 19.5 °C. Basic (very) meteorology allows a 2°C temperature drop off per 1000 feet (give or take). So, elementary mental arithmetic would place the freezing level at approximately 10,000 feet (+/- ish). So from the humble ARFOR the next basic questions may be asked - what is the freezing level and what cloud may be expected on the climb to altitude and what type of cloud is it? Automatic precursor to any IFR flight usually 'nutted out' on the drive to the aerodrome. The ARFOR gives you that - on your phone, free of charge, long before pre flight inspection.
So much for the basics; now we must delve into the murky world of psychology; in short, what the Hell was this guy using to think with? This aircraft is NOT certified or equipped to operate in 'known icing' (advertised) conditions. This pilot had less than 500 hours total aeronautical experience. I ask you, can you imagine any operator allowing a 500 hour sprog to operate a pressurised, turbine aircraft? And yet the pilot was somehow convinced that the electronics, the GPS and the auto pilot could cover the deficiencies illuminated, so manifestly identifiable in the ATSB report; for example:-
"Additionally, the pilot stated that the forecast icing was ‘...more of a heads up than anything else’ and that ‘...you adjust accordingly as per the conditions when you’re there’, indicating an interpretation of just needing to be aware of potential icing when in cloud at a particular flight level. The pilot also interpreted the likelihood of encountering the forecast icing conditions as more probable than not but expected that an AIRMET or SIGMET for icing would be issued if those conditions were highly probable. The pilot reported having used the Windy31 program to view cloud top information before the flight, recalling that the cloud tops were at FL 140, and hence expected to be above clouds at the planned cruise altitude of FL 180."
So, very comfortable with the notion of ploughing through 4000 feet of cloud, to reach the tops ice free and toddle off at F180 without a care in the world - bollocks. Freezing level below cloud tops - moisture present - no Prist additive - no de-ice boots and some kind of weird notion that more ice than than required in a Bundy and Coke was just another day at the office in his 400 hours of experience. Read this and weep for cupidity, stupidity and arrogant reliance on 'technology' of the 'free' kind.
"The pilot reported that the decision to descend was mainly based on the passenger’s concern about the observed ice build-up. They further advised being familiar with the performance of the P210N airframe with ice accumulation from previous icing encounters that had not caused any operational problems. The pilot also stated that some of those encounters involved more severe icing than this occurrence, and that other P210N owners/pilots had reported that the aircraft could carry a substantial amount of ice without any problem."
Unbelievable - but then, consider the unholy mess made of the forced landing. Quite right M'lud I wasn't there - but then Sir, I submit that I would never have been in that position in the first place - not even when I was but an aeronautical child; my mentors would have seen to that.
There, rant nearly over except for one small, nagging, ever present skeleton at the feast. Despite the multi million dollar suite of regulation, we still have 'weather related' accident. Why does CASA not spend some of it's millions and hire some real experts to hold workshops for pilots - talking about real weather management and survival, of flight manual interpretation, of aircraft performance in the real world? This instead of just sitting back and taking the money and 'legally' supportable pot-shots at those who breach their black letter law, a.k,a the Gibberish regulations. For 'safet's' sake - of course....The hard, 'bold print' laws have never, not since the Wright brothers ever changed, not one solitary jot.
"Captain A. G. Lamplugh, a British pilot from the early days of aviation once famously said “Aviation in itself is not inherently dangerous. But to an even greater degree than the sea, it is terribly unforgiving of any carelessness, incapacity or neglect.” Space flight is less forgiving still."
Yes, yes; a ramble to be sure (to be sure) but count the straws children, a heavy load indeed.
Just a couple of points left to ruminate over - AOPA's latest broadcast; until Morgan learns that a fellah like Mackenzie has forgotten more than he'll ever know and let him lead the audience to a natural conclusion. AOPA are under performing and loosing potential supporters. Enough said. - Item last - seems Hitch has finally grasped the big problem and even dared to weigh in (a little) on the side of industry knowing more about what they do than CASA does. A worm turning? I wonder. Time will tell.
That is it; Oh, there's a lot more, but until we see a real change within CASA and runs on the scoreboard; I, for one ain't going to be expecting intelligence, honesty, transparency or even a genuine internal will for CASA to be more than they are. They have a huge PR problem; and, until the faith and trust they have wilfully destroyed, not only at home, but abroad is properly restored, they will remain, despite soft, fluffy, snivelling letters from the DAS, remain an international pariah. Unheeded, and held in international contempt. The worlds leading aviation bodies won't say this, not openly - but, Oh boy, do they think it.
Aye well; its not what one could describe as 'cold' here and it is raining; always welcome in Australia, even when it floods the place; but the land knows what to do with the water and uses it well - has done for millennia. I very carefully unpicked the joints on that lovely old table, the quality of the joints almost precluded repair without damage; and, the fellahin who made it had built in his own 'wrinkles' to preclude the chance of separation. I did manage to unbutton one and, despite a couple of (badly) failed attempts to make a similar joint eventually managed to replicate his artistry; even managed to match the timber (man on a galloping horse wouldn't spot the difference). It would be a fine thing to have an Ale or two with the maker of this table; now that is a thing I would enjoy. No matter, the cat has elected to stay in the stable; the dogs are just waiting for the word; and so, once again, hat and jacket required.
“Then the storm broke, and the dragons danced.”
Selah.-.
With your indulgence M'lud, I shall construe. I ask that the following report from the ATSB - HERE - be carefully read and considered before we redirect our questions to the defendants.
There now, all done, then I shall begin: there are four entrants in the race to oblivion; Inexperienced Lad; Electronic Addiction; Overconfidence and Regulatory body; all short odds entrants to run a place. In primus, it must be said that the ATSB report was, when compared to other shoddy work, a breath of fresh air and not too shabby an effort; this despite being distracted by analysis of 'electronics' to make sense of a series of events. It was a base which needed to be covered; however. At Bankstown, on the day of departure there was, freely and unstintingly available two essential pre departure considerations - to wit, the ATIS and the humble ARFOR. Both, pre the electronic wizardry, the source of pre flight knowledge for aircrew. The average November temperatures at Bankstown are high 25/ low 14. Take the mean of those and arrive at 19.5 °C. Basic (very) meteorology allows a 2°C temperature drop off per 1000 feet (give or take). So, elementary mental arithmetic would place the freezing level at approximately 10,000 feet (+/- ish). So from the humble ARFOR the next basic questions may be asked - what is the freezing level and what cloud may be expected on the climb to altitude and what type of cloud is it? Automatic precursor to any IFR flight usually 'nutted out' on the drive to the aerodrome. The ARFOR gives you that - on your phone, free of charge, long before pre flight inspection.
So much for the basics; now we must delve into the murky world of psychology; in short, what the Hell was this guy using to think with? This aircraft is NOT certified or equipped to operate in 'known icing' (advertised) conditions. This pilot had less than 500 hours total aeronautical experience. I ask you, can you imagine any operator allowing a 500 hour sprog to operate a pressurised, turbine aircraft? And yet the pilot was somehow convinced that the electronics, the GPS and the auto pilot could cover the deficiencies illuminated, so manifestly identifiable in the ATSB report; for example:-
"Additionally, the pilot stated that the forecast icing was ‘...more of a heads up than anything else’ and that ‘...you adjust accordingly as per the conditions when you’re there’, indicating an interpretation of just needing to be aware of potential icing when in cloud at a particular flight level. The pilot also interpreted the likelihood of encountering the forecast icing conditions as more probable than not but expected that an AIRMET or SIGMET for icing would be issued if those conditions were highly probable. The pilot reported having used the Windy31 program to view cloud top information before the flight, recalling that the cloud tops were at FL 140, and hence expected to be above clouds at the planned cruise altitude of FL 180."
So, very comfortable with the notion of ploughing through 4000 feet of cloud, to reach the tops ice free and toddle off at F180 without a care in the world - bollocks. Freezing level below cloud tops - moisture present - no Prist additive - no de-ice boots and some kind of weird notion that more ice than than required in a Bundy and Coke was just another day at the office in his 400 hours of experience. Read this and weep for cupidity, stupidity and arrogant reliance on 'technology' of the 'free' kind.
"The pilot reported that the decision to descend was mainly based on the passenger’s concern about the observed ice build-up. They further advised being familiar with the performance of the P210N airframe with ice accumulation from previous icing encounters that had not caused any operational problems. The pilot also stated that some of those encounters involved more severe icing than this occurrence, and that other P210N owners/pilots had reported that the aircraft could carry a substantial amount of ice without any problem."
Unbelievable - but then, consider the unholy mess made of the forced landing. Quite right M'lud I wasn't there - but then Sir, I submit that I would never have been in that position in the first place - not even when I was but an aeronautical child; my mentors would have seen to that.
There, rant nearly over except for one small, nagging, ever present skeleton at the feast. Despite the multi million dollar suite of regulation, we still have 'weather related' accident. Why does CASA not spend some of it's millions and hire some real experts to hold workshops for pilots - talking about real weather management and survival, of flight manual interpretation, of aircraft performance in the real world? This instead of just sitting back and taking the money and 'legally' supportable pot-shots at those who breach their black letter law, a.k,a the Gibberish regulations. For 'safet's' sake - of course....The hard, 'bold print' laws have never, not since the Wright brothers ever changed, not one solitary jot.
"Captain A. G. Lamplugh, a British pilot from the early days of aviation once famously said “Aviation in itself is not inherently dangerous. But to an even greater degree than the sea, it is terribly unforgiving of any carelessness, incapacity or neglect.” Space flight is less forgiving still."
Yes, yes; a ramble to be sure (to be sure) but count the straws children, a heavy load indeed.
Just a couple of points left to ruminate over - AOPA's latest broadcast; until Morgan learns that a fellah like Mackenzie has forgotten more than he'll ever know and let him lead the audience to a natural conclusion. AOPA are under performing and loosing potential supporters. Enough said. - Item last - seems Hitch has finally grasped the big problem and even dared to weigh in (a little) on the side of industry knowing more about what they do than CASA does. A worm turning? I wonder. Time will tell.
That is it; Oh, there's a lot more, but until we see a real change within CASA and runs on the scoreboard; I, for one ain't going to be expecting intelligence, honesty, transparency or even a genuine internal will for CASA to be more than they are. They have a huge PR problem; and, until the faith and trust they have wilfully destroyed, not only at home, but abroad is properly restored, they will remain, despite soft, fluffy, snivelling letters from the DAS, remain an international pariah. Unheeded, and held in international contempt. The worlds leading aviation bodies won't say this, not openly - but, Oh boy, do they think it.
Aye well; its not what one could describe as 'cold' here and it is raining; always welcome in Australia, even when it floods the place; but the land knows what to do with the water and uses it well - has done for millennia. I very carefully unpicked the joints on that lovely old table, the quality of the joints almost precluded repair without damage; and, the fellahin who made it had built in his own 'wrinkles' to preclude the chance of separation. I did manage to unbutton one and, despite a couple of (badly) failed attempts to make a similar joint eventually managed to replicate his artistry; even managed to match the timber (man on a galloping horse wouldn't spot the difference). It would be a fine thing to have an Ale or two with the maker of this table; now that is a thing I would enjoy. No matter, the cat has elected to stay in the stable; the dogs are just waiting for the word; and so, once again, hat and jacket required.
“Then the storm broke, and the dragons danced.”
Selah.-.