Hook, line and possibly sinker.
I, for one was never in favour of being drawn into a pissing competition with CASA over ‘numbers’ and statistics. But, the offered bait was taken, so now we must watch the contest.
FWIW – the AOPA graphs are ‘interesting’. One of the immediate questions raised is why has CASA not reduced their numbers or budgets to reflect the decline? I will however go along with the P1 comment: to do a proper analysis, the ‘decline’ needs to be broken down further, to close off the obvious escape routes. Analysis also needs to be ‘nice’, accurate to the ninth degree or; it will be argued to hell and back again; without progress. The analysis needs to show, for example, the increase in RAAus and SAA numbers, the increased demand from airlines and the natural attrition rates; which should be proportionate to actual pilot numbers, including those with ‘lapsed’ medicals.
For example, way back in history Qantas stood down about 200 cadets and juniors; they all went onto the GA account, a huge spike; gradually most eventually returned to Qantas and GA numbers reflected those changes, but slowly as small groups returned to Q . Then, the series of recessions Australia has had also played havoc with the numbers, trending up when it’s a good period, down when the economy is buggered. Flying school numbers (excluding OS students) are a good measure of how good the economy is; flying lessons are costly and when the baby needs new shoes, ‘luxury’ programs are shelved.
Then we must consider the decline of operators and corresponding lack of employment opportunities that presents. There are many, I mean a lot of potential operators who cannot build an investment case. Then there are those who simply cannot see the distance and cost involved in starting up a new operation; the costs are horrendous, the impediments many and the returns scarcely justify the ‘investment’. Then there is all the palaver of actually keeping the AOC intact and the cost/risk associated. This is directly attributable to CASA, no one else. Look at the over-seas job market and opportunities, there you see the marked difference. If Australia was not so ducking unique half the GA pilots would be OS, flying decent aircraft on not too bad wages; I digress.
Another possible cause for the decline is the lack of well paid work and job security in GA. I know several who, due to marriage, or impending children; or, just plain could not find a job that was worth having simply returned to their profession to make ends meet; there are many who work on ‘casual’ basis; flying only for pleasure, to top up the weekly stipend and to stay ‘current’.
Ben’s effort must be applauded and the contribution is valuable; but is it enough to persuade CASA to back off and get real? He is one man challenging a government backed army of professional carpet baggers and snake oil salesmen. CASA is a well oiled machine, finely tuned to ensure absolute protection from all and any attack. Like all machines it is mindless and can be adjusted to suit operating conditions. If that protection even looks like faltering there is always the consult, delay, divide and conquer standby, which has seen off many stern challenges.
If we are to be sucked into a ‘numbers’ argument, it will be a long, drawn out battle with no guarantee of success. Use the figures to support the outcry but don’t rely on them. The regulator needs to be reformed, root and branch. Forsyth and TAAAF policy enforced by the Senate is as good a weapon as we are ever likely to get and, a united industry could, with just a little more effort, get the brakes on the runaway juggernaut and turn it around. Good graphs, sure they are, good effort, absolutely; but are they, stand alone, enough?
No discussion, no negotiation, no quarter or compromise are the only things which will save the industry now. Tell CASA to bugger off and mean it. Reform the regulator, the rest will recover as a matter of course, by natural means. We all know where the problems lay, it is unity and courage which is missing. Industry needs to stop pissing about trying to humour and appease this monstrous impediment to progress. Enough – actually, more than enough.
Toot (sigh) toot.
I, for one was never in favour of being drawn into a pissing competition with CASA over ‘numbers’ and statistics. But, the offered bait was taken, so now we must watch the contest.
FWIW – the AOPA graphs are ‘interesting’. One of the immediate questions raised is why has CASA not reduced their numbers or budgets to reflect the decline? I will however go along with the P1 comment: to do a proper analysis, the ‘decline’ needs to be broken down further, to close off the obvious escape routes. Analysis also needs to be ‘nice’, accurate to the ninth degree or; it will be argued to hell and back again; without progress. The analysis needs to show, for example, the increase in RAAus and SAA numbers, the increased demand from airlines and the natural attrition rates; which should be proportionate to actual pilot numbers, including those with ‘lapsed’ medicals.
For example, way back in history Qantas stood down about 200 cadets and juniors; they all went onto the GA account, a huge spike; gradually most eventually returned to Qantas and GA numbers reflected those changes, but slowly as small groups returned to Q . Then, the series of recessions Australia has had also played havoc with the numbers, trending up when it’s a good period, down when the economy is buggered. Flying school numbers (excluding OS students) are a good measure of how good the economy is; flying lessons are costly and when the baby needs new shoes, ‘luxury’ programs are shelved.
Then we must consider the decline of operators and corresponding lack of employment opportunities that presents. There are many, I mean a lot of potential operators who cannot build an investment case. Then there are those who simply cannot see the distance and cost involved in starting up a new operation; the costs are horrendous, the impediments many and the returns scarcely justify the ‘investment’. Then there is all the palaver of actually keeping the AOC intact and the cost/risk associated. This is directly attributable to CASA, no one else. Look at the over-seas job market and opportunities, there you see the marked difference. If Australia was not so ducking unique half the GA pilots would be OS, flying decent aircraft on not too bad wages; I digress.
Another possible cause for the decline is the lack of well paid work and job security in GA. I know several who, due to marriage, or impending children; or, just plain could not find a job that was worth having simply returned to their profession to make ends meet; there are many who work on ‘casual’ basis; flying only for pleasure, to top up the weekly stipend and to stay ‘current’.
Ben’s effort must be applauded and the contribution is valuable; but is it enough to persuade CASA to back off and get real? He is one man challenging a government backed army of professional carpet baggers and snake oil salesmen. CASA is a well oiled machine, finely tuned to ensure absolute protection from all and any attack. Like all machines it is mindless and can be adjusted to suit operating conditions. If that protection even looks like faltering there is always the consult, delay, divide and conquer standby, which has seen off many stern challenges.
If we are to be sucked into a ‘numbers’ argument, it will be a long, drawn out battle with no guarantee of success. Use the figures to support the outcry but don’t rely on them. The regulator needs to be reformed, root and branch. Forsyth and TAAAF policy enforced by the Senate is as good a weapon as we are ever likely to get and, a united industry could, with just a little more effort, get the brakes on the runaway juggernaut and turn it around. Good graphs, sure they are, good effort, absolutely; but are they, stand alone, enough?
No discussion, no negotiation, no quarter or compromise are the only things which will save the industry now. Tell CASA to bugger off and mean it. Reform the regulator, the rest will recover as a matter of course, by natural means. We all know where the problems lay, it is unity and courage which is missing. Industry needs to stop pissing about trying to humour and appease this monstrous impediment to progress. Enough – actually, more than enough.
Toot (sigh) toot.