Yeah - But....
There is a great big 'but' hanging over Wombat's quandry - a perennial, global question that aircrew (of any stamp) must answer.
The answers as varied as the those who must respond; from the 'duck it - I'll go' to the 'no flying, not today' - and pretty much every variation in between. There is also a thing called command prerogative. There is also a long list of questions which must be settled in the mind of the PIC before committing aviation. Mostly, these are (or should be) settled long before pre departure preparation; mostly. But lets stick to weather flying for non commercial operations for now.
There's our mate Wombat - looking at two weather forecasts - two 'opinions' if you like; one says good to go, the other says not so good. Who's opinion is the most important? The answer is neither - the only one that really matters, legally, operationally and 'in the safety case' is the pilot's. Go or don't go that is the final question. The battle should commence long before scheduled departure - preferably the night before at the latest. Just checking the TV weather forecast every night is not a bad habit - even a daily visit to the BoM site is a good practice - it provides a picture of the weather patterns - how the weather is acting, how the prevailing winds are changing and creating this or that event, where and importantly, which way the pattern is moving and the weather it is generating; an overview if you like. The BoM site is a valuable tool - the general area and TAF forecasts a good place to start forming an opinion. Don't forget - you can always request and receive a route forecast.
Wombat's daily double indicates that perhaps today is not the best day to go flying. This also begs a list of questions - do I need to go now? The worst case is (IMO) the scenario where three of four have decided to visit - say an airshow for the weekend as an example. Fixed times, bookings etc, in short a schedule. Trying to meet this pre planned, anticipated schedule can be an important factor in decision making; it must not be allowed to become 'the' factor. The age old adage "if you've time to spare, travel by air" applies to VFR operations more than any other.
And so, on a dodgy forecast the flight departs - but only to the first pre selected gate - here a decision must be made; continue or knock off. Between gate 1 and gate 2 more decisions - do we turn Left at Albuquerque and book into a pub, turn right and avoid the weather, stop at Kickinatinalong for fuel and a burger and wait? But gate 2 slides by, the weather has held - so on we go - alas, the forecast lousy weather is ahead of us - how lousy is it? what's to hit? can I step around the worst? how much motion lotion can I spare before I scamper back to a friendly paddock? It is no bloody use at all to be making these decisions 'on the fly' - this is a battle action plan decided before the baggage was loaded. And even then, as von Moltke said -
'no plan of operations can with any certainty reach beyond the first encounter with the enemy.’
Treat every journey as a battle; consider the both the big and small things which can spoil your day; it becomes a habit after a while - a flight plan is a great starting point, but not an iron clad contract. Sure 99.9 times in every hundred all is well; but never (not ever) forget about Murphy - every-man's copilot; and, 70% of the time, the weather don't always comply with the BoM forecast; not to the sentence and often not even to the letter. Guile, cunning and knowledge are the hand tools of the thinking pilot.
Aye, 'tis but a thumbnail dipped in tar - a note, scribbled to mate during second coffee, but even so, a place to start thinking about the oldest enemies of flight.
Toot - toot...
There is a great big 'but' hanging over Wombat's quandry - a perennial, global question that aircrew (of any stamp) must answer.
The answers as varied as the those who must respond; from the 'duck it - I'll go' to the 'no flying, not today' - and pretty much every variation in between. There is also a thing called command prerogative. There is also a long list of questions which must be settled in the mind of the PIC before committing aviation. Mostly, these are (or should be) settled long before pre departure preparation; mostly. But lets stick to weather flying for non commercial operations for now.
There's our mate Wombat - looking at two weather forecasts - two 'opinions' if you like; one says good to go, the other says not so good. Who's opinion is the most important? The answer is neither - the only one that really matters, legally, operationally and 'in the safety case' is the pilot's. Go or don't go that is the final question. The battle should commence long before scheduled departure - preferably the night before at the latest. Just checking the TV weather forecast every night is not a bad habit - even a daily visit to the BoM site is a good practice - it provides a picture of the weather patterns - how the weather is acting, how the prevailing winds are changing and creating this or that event, where and importantly, which way the pattern is moving and the weather it is generating; an overview if you like. The BoM site is a valuable tool - the general area and TAF forecasts a good place to start forming an opinion. Don't forget - you can always request and receive a route forecast.
Wombat's daily double indicates that perhaps today is not the best day to go flying. This also begs a list of questions - do I need to go now? The worst case is (IMO) the scenario where three of four have decided to visit - say an airshow for the weekend as an example. Fixed times, bookings etc, in short a schedule. Trying to meet this pre planned, anticipated schedule can be an important factor in decision making; it must not be allowed to become 'the' factor. The age old adage "if you've time to spare, travel by air" applies to VFR operations more than any other.
And so, on a dodgy forecast the flight departs - but only to the first pre selected gate - here a decision must be made; continue or knock off. Between gate 1 and gate 2 more decisions - do we turn Left at Albuquerque and book into a pub, turn right and avoid the weather, stop at Kickinatinalong for fuel and a burger and wait? But gate 2 slides by, the weather has held - so on we go - alas, the forecast lousy weather is ahead of us - how lousy is it? what's to hit? can I step around the worst? how much motion lotion can I spare before I scamper back to a friendly paddock? It is no bloody use at all to be making these decisions 'on the fly' - this is a battle action plan decided before the baggage was loaded. And even then, as von Moltke said -
'no plan of operations can with any certainty reach beyond the first encounter with the enemy.’
Treat every journey as a battle; consider the both the big and small things which can spoil your day; it becomes a habit after a while - a flight plan is a great starting point, but not an iron clad contract. Sure 99.9 times in every hundred all is well; but never (not ever) forget about Murphy - every-man's copilot; and, 70% of the time, the weather don't always comply with the BoM forecast; not to the sentence and often not even to the letter. Guile, cunning and knowledge are the hand tools of the thinking pilot.
Aye, 'tis but a thumbnail dipped in tar - a note, scribbled to mate during second coffee, but even so, a place to start thinking about the oldest enemies of flight.
Toot - toot...