[Gobbledock]

Dipshit Darren said;

"we've got people at sea right now doing that underwater search effort. They have located missing shipwrecks from over 100 years ago, they have found oil drums on the bottom of the ocean floor, but they haven't been able to find the missing aircraft, which is obviously what we are all most interested in".

DDDD has also probably got people at Poolament House searching for his hairbrush, hair product, nose hair trimmers, mirror(s), selfie stick, nail file, chest wax......

[Peetwo]

Captain's Log 27.12.16: MH370 a cover-up or balls-up? 

In the above video the Heff, in his typical indefatigable style, calls out Beaker on the PelAir cover-up/cock-up.

So to at the start of the ATSB 19 October 2015 Supplementary Estimates, the Heff gives his appraisal of the ATSB led MH370 search:

Australian Transport Safety Bureau
[18:22]

CHAIR: I think generally you may face some questions about the MH370 stuff-up.

Senator JOHNSTON: Mr Dolan, could you very briefly tell us what we are doing as of right now?

Mr Dolan : At the moment we have two vessels with deep tow equipment in the Indian Ocean or en route to continue the search of the surface in the defined area for this event...

  It is often quoted..

"..If I had to choose between a cock-up and a conspiracy, I'd choose a cock-up every time.."

In the case of MH370 the Jury is still firmly out but "V" would appear to be favouring a conspiracy on a grand scale: 

K

The only logical explanation, is that there is most definitely something of critical international importance to hide.  All the "involved" Governments clearly know what it is, and are in complete agreement that it must remain secret. The public never will know, because all the involved governments desperately want, and perhaps even "need" it to remain forever secret.

Malaysia was lying from day one, and there was the famous "evidence that must remain sealed" statement.

After the "initial flurry" of the first two weeks, China's attitude for the past 30 plus months has been one of "studied indifference".

After Jay Carney "directed" the search to the SIO, he was quickly "shut up", and unceremoniously disposed of by the US Intelligence insiders, and the NSA classified everything the US has. The US has remained steadfastly "silent".

Australia, as the compliant and obedient lapdog, has dutifully conducted "the search that never was", AKA, "Operation Mincemeat TWO".  

Remember that the the "original" high priority area was only 60,000 square kilometres. When it was clear that the aircraft was highly unlikely to be there, and since public interest was still "high" , they had to "buy more time" for the "heat" to diminish, so we had the "magic doubling" to 120,000 square kilometres, which bought another year for the "heat" to subside.

Now, the "tripartite" governments have "decided" that "enough is enough", the heat has subsided to only "lukewarm", and it is time to end the farce, and simply "wrap it up".

It is interesting that the ATSB is now proposing just "one more small area" to search, clearly against the wishes of our dear Minister Selfie, and clearly knowing that it will not be accepted or acted upon. It can only be a forlorn attempt by the ATSB to recover some small amount of dignity for itself.

You can just hear Hoody at some news conference down the track:- "We wanted to go on, but the government(s) would not let us".

This might invoke the ire of P9, for he has not much time for JW and sees him as a parasite trying to profit off the misery of the MH370 NOK. However there are some thought provoking postings off the JW blog that look over toward the cock-up side of the fence..

First JW OBS:

As a result of the above I would suggest that:

a) Even though most recent report describes “the need to search an additional area representing approximately 25,000 km²,” the conduct of the ATSB’s search does not suggest that they earnestly believe that the plane could lie in this area. If they did, they could have searched out the highest-probability portions of this area with the time and resources at their disposal. Indeed, they could be searching it right now, as I write this. Obviously they are not.
b) The ATSB knew, in issuing the report, that Malaysia and China would not agree to search the newly suggested area, because it fails to meet the agreed-upon criteria for an extension (“credible new information… that can be used to identify the specific location of the aircraft”). Thus mooting this area would allow them to claim that there remained areas of significant probability that they had been forced to leave unsearched. This, in effect, would allow them to claim that their analysis had been correct but that they had fallen victim to bad luck.
c) The ATSB’s sophisticated mathematical analysis of the Inmarsat data, combined with debris drift analysis and other factors, allowed them to define an area of the southern Indian Ocean in which the plane could plausibly have come to rest. A long, exhaustive and expensive search has determined that it is not there.
d) The ATSB did not fall victim to bad luck. On the contrary, they have demonstrated with great robustness that the Inmarsat data is not compatible with the physical facts of the case.
e) Something is wrong with the Inmarsat data.

Then Dennis W on his own blog, reckons the problem lies in our 'expectations'

Saturday, December 24, 2016
 
Is Something Wrong with this Picture (The Search for 9M-MRO) ??

From Forward I page v of "Bayesian Methods in the Search for MH370:

Uncertainty is all pervasive—whether it relates to everyday personal choices and actions, or as background to business and policy decisions, or economic and climate predictions. In recent times, few things have attracted as much attention as the uncertainty surrounding the final whereabouts of MH370.

Yes, indeed.

A cadre (and a large cadre at that) of very qualified people have tossed their hat in the uncertainty reduction ring - the SSWG, the DSTG, CSIRO, to name a few. I will refer to this group as the SSI, Search Strategy Insiders. The SSI has representatives from Boeing, Inmarsat, and Thales. Who can claim to know more about the performance characteristics of a 777 aircraft than Boeing? Who can claim to know more about the Inmarsat system than Inmarsat? Who can claim to know more about how the AES functions than Thales?

Additionally the SSI has access to 20 previous flights of 9M-MRO. The data from these 20 previous flights includes the ACARS data, so the SSI knows exactly where the aircraft was located, the ground track of the aircraft, and the fuel consumption relative to these 20 previous flights. Data of this type has never been made available to anyone but the SSI.

From page 27 of "Bayesian Methods..." referring to the BTO calibration/validation:

The data used to construct the histogram and the empirical parameters were obtained from logs of the 20 flights of 9M-MRO prior to the accident flight.

From page 30 of "Bayesian Methods..." referring to the collection of BFO statistics:

Empirical statistics of the residual measurement noise wBFOk were determined using the previous 20 flights of 9M-MRO. Data points corresponding to when the aircraft was climbing or descending were excluded.

The SSI also has access to the radar data, not simply graphics, which has never been put in the public domain. It is fair to say that the SSI has a great deal of information that allows them to test and to refine their modeling. The rest of us have nothing but the Inmarsat logs from the accident flight, so there is no way to validate our own modeling. Still, the terminal locations derived by the SSI are consistent with the terminal locations derived by the rest of us. There is obviously no magic here.

So, what is the take-away? My early conclusion is that the ensemble of data associated with the accident flight is not sufficient to determine a terminus, and so would conclude any other person reasonably skilled in the background analytics. The data can only broadly constrain the possible terminal locations. It cannot constrain terminal locations sufficiently well to have a high degree of confidence in the results of an under water search conducted in a relatively small area.

The only things wrong are our expectations

 
Read, absorb, weep or ridicule, it is still a fascinating point of discussion and no doubt the recriminations/blame game will go on indefinitely...

However provided this is not a monumental conspiracy, none of this academia speculation and theorising will actually get us any closer to finding the final terminus of MH370...


MTF...P2

[Peetwo]

Captain's Log 28.12.16: MC on MH370 7th arc phallacies - 

{P2 comment - Due ATSB/CSIRO pornographic content, Aunty Pru has censored certain parts of the following blog piece - )

Running along a similar MH370 retrospective theme, overnight Chillit added to his 7th Arc blog :

Potty Mouth
Posted on December 27, 2016 by Mike Chillit

This is a Toto (brand) Washlet and a cat named Kitt. I installed Washlets in two upstairs and one lower bathroom two years ago.

This particular Washlet model is self-cleaning. It is also a bit noisy as it sprays oxygenated water on all inner surfaces to keep everything nice and fresh and clean. In fact, noisy enough I had to get used to it. Kitt too, but Kitt still isn’t convinced there isn’t some one or some thing inside making those hisses and spits. So, for the past two years, she returns to it whenever it goes through its automated cleaning program. (The lid normally stays down.)



Fully automated, heated Toto (brand) Washlet that has baffled this little cat for two years as it cycles through its program to keep things fresh and clean.

As the Feline race is inclined to be fastidiously cautious, Kitt has never been convinced I didn’t secretly install a little man inside the device to keep tabs on her, or sneak up on her when she isn’t looking. So she has kept tabs right back, especially when it makes noises she associates with living breathing things.

What does this have to do with MH370, you ask? Nothing directly, but it reminded me the other day of the languishing tragedy deep in the South Indian Ocean where a small group of boffins and seafarers continue to return to the same small spot to look for something that was never there, and will never be there. Unlike Kitt, who at least moves around to other places in the house where other Washlets perform their duties day in and day out, would-be MH370 searchers have 4,000 km to search, but they sadly keep returning to -38.0° South, 88.5° East near the southern-most end of a strip of seafloor barely 100 km long and 50 km wide. Not once have they ventured beyond that tiny little comfort zone where something in their equally tiny and dysfunctional navigation instincts refuses to give-it-a-rest and move on. 

But the tragedy isn’t just their collective inability to adjust to the fact that their initial assumptions were hugely wrong: they have become squatters in the process. By refusing to expand the area of search interest, they have doomed efforts to find the plane and its victims in a timely manner; and they have prevented families from finding closure. The cruelness of these actions and inactions is deplorable, and causes us to ask if these autistic bureaucrats are real people with feelings and emotions? Or are they simply automatons created for the sole purpose of covering the behinds of Australia’s Intelligentsia?

It’s probably an unanswerable question. At least, it is probably a question families and tragedy-watchers must answer individually. The scientific world has been loudly guffawing at Australia’s ATSB and CSIRO for its severe learning disability. Australia meanwhile pretends it doesn’t hear. From all appearances, those in charge at CSIRO were far more interested in writing an absurd book about how they used Bayesian Statistics to find the plane, than in actually finding it. The book may have been an academic success, but the search ranks up there with using hydrogen to fill the Hindenburg, and “Brownie, you’re doing a heckuva job”.

And the graphic below is not just the face of failure in two dimensions, it is flatly pornographic and I’m told it was intended to be a pornographic comment directed at search critics, of which there are many. Hard to imagine it was not intended exactly that way. Anyone over the age of 12 or so would have had better sense than to publish anything remotely resembling a giant penis. But it is how Dr. Neil Gordon and his CSIRO colleagues decided to strike back in 2015. It has never been withdrawn. And Australia’s subservient media actually ignored it, begging the question: Who is REALLY the dick?

---

*CENSORED*  PORNOGRAPHIC CONTENT *CENSORED*

---

The most pompous example of failure ever portrayed in two dimensions. It is CSIRO’s and Dr. Neil Gordon’s “little man” inside.

At this writing, Australia insists it will give up the search entirely when the lone search vessel, Fugro Equator, completes her current assignment. Almost everyone hopes it does exactly that. It has come down to an inability to find the haystack, let alone the needle. No exact date has been provided for Australia’s sprint home, but everyone who has followed this tragedy knows Equator could have quit a year ago and not missed anything related to MH370.

This entry was posted in 7th Arc by Mike Chillit. Bookmark the permalink.

Not wanting to thread drift too much but Julie off twitter provided an excellent link to an opinion piece by Brian D. Earp aptly titled -The unbearable asymmetry of bullshit  (via Healthgate):

In this piece, Brian Earp discusses the problem of plausible-sounding bullshit in science, and describes one particularly insidious method for producing it. Because, he says, it takes so much more energy to refute bullshit than it does to create it, and because the result can be so damaging to the integrity of empirical research as well as to the policies that are based upon such research, Earp suggests that addressing this issue should be a high priority for publication ethics.

This excellent paper perhaps provides an insight to us mere mortals into how our bureaucratic scientific & research boffins could so narrowly scope the MH370 SIO deep search based on little more than interpretative data and suspect dodgy hearsay evidence.

Dennis W provides an excellent summary:

..My early conclusion is that the ensemble of data associated with the accident flight is not sufficient to determine a terminus, and so would conclude any other person reasonably skilled in the background analytics. The data can only broadly constrain the possible terminal locations. It cannot constrain terminal locations sufficiently well to have a high degree of confidence in the results of an under water search conducted in a relatively small area..

MTF...P2

[Gobbledock]

Excellent article and blog P2, thank you for posting it. And kudos to its author.

Slight thread drift however. I am intrigued by the authors shitter. Not the device that is keeping puss on his toes, but the full carpet covering on the floor in that bathroom, near the shitter and shower cubicle. At my age I need robust tiles to capture my midnight misfiring from the urine cannon. How does the author keep his carpet in pristine, non urine stained quality condition? I have assessed the risk of carpet around my shitter and it is simply too great. I wonder how the ATsB would rank such a risk? Interesting indeed.....

[Peetwo]

Captain's Log 30.12.16: HSSS archive entry 161230

From 'that man' in the Oz today writes that the AFAP (Australia's biggest pilot association) is amongst other pilot groups and aircraft accident investigators calling for the MH370 SIO search to continue..

‘Don’t abandon MH370 search’
12:00amEAN HIGGINS
Pilots and crash investigators have warned against allowing Malaysia to ‘get away’ with not continuing the MH370 hunt.

Professional pilots and air crash investigators have warned against allowing Malaysia to “get away” with not continuing the hunt for Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370, with the remaining search vessel due to complete the last sweep of the southern Indian Ocean within weeks.

They called on Australian authorities to drop their public reluctance to consider whether a “rogue pilot” hijacked his own aircraft and ditched it, saying a new search strategy should ­include that scenario and a ­revised target zone to allow for it.

The last ship to scour the 120,000sq km search zone, the Fugro Equator, is well into its second week of what is usually a four-to-five-week deployment.

It appears likely to bring to an end a fruitless $200 million hunt for the Boeing 777 that disappeared on a scheduled flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing on March 8, 2014, with 239 ­people on board.

This month a panel of international experts and the CSIRO defined a new possible area to look north of the current target zone, but the three governments funding the operation — China, Malaysia and Australia — have said it will not be resumed without new information identifying a specific location.

Since MH370 was Malaysian-registered, Malaysia has primary responsibility for the ­investigation and the decision of whether to continue the hunt.

The president of the Australian Federation of Air Pilots, David Booth, said his profession internationally had an “over­riding principle … the need to recover the wreckage to determine the cause of every accident”. “This means funding a search of all feasible areas,” he said.

Some suggested Malaysia would be content if the aircraft were not found because it could not be determined that — as many aviation experts believe — MH370 captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah hijacked his own aircraft and flew it to the end.

“If the Malaysians try to call this off, you would have to ask the reason why; any major airline would want to find out what happened to its aircraft,” Captain Mike Keane, a former chief pilot of Britain’s largest airline, EasyJet, said.

“They are ducking litigation and embarrassment, loss of face … they have a vested interest, to my mind, not to find the aircraft.”

The Australian Transport Safety Bureau, which is directing the underwater search at the request of Malaysia, has based its strategy on the “ghost flight” and “death dive” theories that the ­pilots were incapacitated and MH370 went down fast after running out of fuel on autopilot.

“I am surprised they have not looked at the other argument that the captain has carried out some sort of controlled ditching,” Captain Keane said, saying the known facts suggest Zaharie tried to hide the aircraft through an elaborate plan including turning off the radar transponder.

MTF...P2

[ventus45]

Considering that there were 6 Australian Citizens and 1 Permanent Resident on board, it is interesting that "International Convention" can allow a Foreign Government to "consign them to the deep", when there are clear indications of "a criminal event", without so much as a peep out of 3 Australian State Police Forces, 3 Australian State Coroners, and the Federal Police.

I seem to remember the "situation" was a little different with MH-17 ?

Perhaps Julie Bishop and all the other aforementioned, would like to explain to a legal dumb(duck) like me, what the "differences" are in the "conventions" between MH-17 and MH-370.

[Gobbledock]

Of double standards and suspicious actions

Ventus said;

"Considering that there were 6 Australian Citizens and 1 Permanent Resident on board, it is interesting that "International Convention" can allow a Foreign Government to "consign them to the deep", when there are clear indications of "a criminal event", without so much as a peep out of 3 Australian State Police Forces, 3 Australian State Coroners, and the Federal Police.

Perhaps Julie Bishop and all the other aforementioned, would like to explain to a legal dumb(duck) like me, what the "differences" are in the "conventions" between MH-17 and MH-370".

Great comment Ventus.

It's also ironic how 5 Australians died when Garuda Flight 200 crashed at Yogyakarta, the Australian Government: and, the rest of the world, were all over that one: weren't they? Perhaps our Government is only concerned about what it perceives to be 'more important people', such as the  Australian diplomats who died on Garuda Fl 200? The rest of us mere citizens aren't worth pissing on, hence the lack of 'conviction and interest' on behalf of our Government?

Or; then again, this entire farce is being manipulated at the highest levels for some very important reason. As I've said before; eventually, the sea will give up more of its secrets; but, in the meantime, 'we' are held hostage to the crooked; and, corrupt Governments: the whole stinking lot of them.

Tick Tock

[Peetwo]

What now for the JIT Annex13 MH370 investigation?

All excellent OBS from "V" & the Gobbledock but what will it mean when the final Fugro ship leaves the SIO 7th Arc area?

"V" mentions international conventions and although I'm a little hazy on the maritime conventions I am a little bit more cognisant of the aviation conventions that being ICAO SARPs, in particular Annex 12 & 13.

It is my understanding that at the moment Annex 13 continues to hold the primacy of both the MH370 'search & recovery' and indeed the investigation.

To help explain here is couple of quoted posts from this thread on 20 January 2016:

“K” we got the gunfight bit right– wrong corral: maybe.

After some serious digging it seems (perhaps) the brick-bats related to the transfer from the AMSA – Search and Rescue (Annexe 12) to the Search and Recover (Annexe 13) is quite legitimate.  Whether there was; or, is some ‘friction’ between the camps remains firmly speculative.  The ICAO ‘requirements’ may have prompted the need for JACC as the AAI is not allowed to make public comment or statement.

The ATSB’s reoccurring forays into the media (Annexe 13 –{5.12}) however may be brought into question and go some way toward explaining the apparent differences between the rival camps.  Then there is the question of whether Malaysia stipulated Dolan, and only Dolan, to lead from the rear.  Indeed, it all remains passing strange, but part of the mystery appears at least to be partly, if not completely solved at very least.

It’s all fairly complicated, but it is, as it is.

In an effort to explain it is worth referring again to the abruptly ended, interactive, AMSA MH370 timeline where it stated...

"...As the search for MH370 transitions from a search and rescue operation to an investigation phase the Joint Agency Coordination Centre takes over the day to day communications..."

The JACC became operational on the 31st of March 2014 and the transition from a SAR phase (Annex 12) to an investigation phase (Annex 13) was already occurring?? This was despite the fact that the surface SAR would not cease operations for yet another month.

IMO the reason the Malaysians wanted to go to the investigation phase is that they desperately needed to wrest back control of the search & more importantly the narrative of the search, Annex 13 enabled the Malaysians to do that by being the State of registry for MH370.

However the transition from Annex 12 to 13 is dependent on (balance of probabilities) there being no survivors - hence going from SAR to 'search & recovery'.

How this decision could be justified, in the case of an aircraft disappearing without a trace, is beyond me but quite obviously legally this was somehow established?? 

It is interesting to note that in the AMSA/JRCC presentation to ICAO - MH370 SEARCH AND RESCUE RESPONSE – JRCC AUSTRALIA - under heading Search Challenges (para 2.2) at subpara q)) it states..

q) Clearly defined division of responsibilities between the search and rescue function (Annex 12) and the air accident investigation search and recovery function (Annex 13).

...which signifies that the JRCC found this 'transition' from Annex 12 to 13 as an impediment to their effective control & management of the SAR phase.

The irony of all this is that it is the Malaysians who were responsible for putting Beaker in charge of the greatest aviation mystery of all time. The question is did they do this by design or was there political/bureaucratic influence from our end??

IMO it is not possible to accept, after the Senate PelAir inquiry & numerous less than convincing Senate Estimates appearances, that either the Malaysians or the miniscule would honestly believe (unless there were ulterior motives) they had the best man for the job - or would they??

It would have been simple for Truss to appoint an acting commissioner with sole responsibility for MH370 in the interim, as the Chief Commissioner's contract was soon to expire. Instead Truss bizarrely extended the CC's contract for a further 2yrs, which coincidentally (like the SIO search) is due to expire in June 2016.

MTF...P2  

Control of narrative.

Spot on P2, nicely done (again).  Now we have the cover story and can see the machinations.  As neat and tidy a piece of legal/political jiggery-pokery as you will ever see scripted.  Totally plausible and well within the ICAO framework.

But does it satisfactorily answer the underlying questions; the big ones.  IMO no, it does not.

AMSA remain the ‘expert’ body and even if the ‘transition’ from rescue to recovery had been explained to the public, the operation would have retained ‘search’ status.  As such, had it been acknowledged that AMSA must now, technically hand over the ‘search’ operation but would remain ‘active’ in an advisory capacity; i.e. they would continue but now brief ATSB, all would have been believable and above board.  Just common sense, the man at the back of the room could understand.

But it’s not done that way, is it.  ‘Snap’ and AMSA is set adrift, to be replaced by ATSB. Placing Dolan in charge was a calculated gamble.  Few, in Australia, even less in Malaysia would have heard of the Pel-Air accident, let alone the ‘inquiry’ or the results of the Senate deliberations, or the shellacking Dolan and ATSB received as a result.  So, to the world and it’s wife, Dolan was a ‘clean-skin’ wearing the mantle of the Australian reputation as a world class aviation nation.  The fact that Dolan (ATSB) and McCormick (CASA) had done more to damage that reputation than any other pair had done gets lost in the rhetoric.

Why the Truss advisors failed to recommend and promote someone like Folley to the front of house remains a mystery.  Dolan was ‘on the nose’.  P7 reckons that had they by-passed Dolan it would be seen as an admission of government fault in the Pel-Air debacle.  There were two choices; fire Dolan and wear the recriminations or; roll the dice, extend his contract and give him a plum job.  Makes sense to me.  Mrdak could not have two of his agencies publicly tainted, like it or not, there was a repair job to be done.  

Little doubt remains that Malaysia desperately wanted control of the narrative and the flexible, cooperative beyond all reason methodology best suited their purpose.  

Politically and legally it has been a ‘win-win’ situation.  The safety blanket deployed for Dolan’s soft landing, under his golden parachute.  Time will tell whether it has been of benefit to those who wait daily for news of loved ones; or, those of us who wonder WTF has happened, why it happened and ‘who-dunnit’.

Neat, tidy and Oh so legal; the exemplar; defining the art of jiggery-pokery and mass embuggerance.

Selah.

Ok so coming back to my original question - in line with 'international conventions', by rights this should mean the Malaysian JIT Annex 13 investigation can continue. Supposedly the investigation has been in some sort of holding pattern, so now the investigation formalities can be completed and the JIT can move to drafting a final report for DIP (directly interested parties) review.

The review process could be lengthy considering the numerous and influential parties involved and the vagaries of what is effectively an incomplete and inconclusive investigation...

However given most DIPs have representatives involved in either (or both) the SSWG and the JIT it is highly probable there has been much discussion already on the final make up and conclusions of a final report, based on not finding MH370. 

My best guess for the FR would be within 6 months. However as has been shown throughout the whole Malaysian MH370 (cock-up/cover-up) debacle, this is a very tentative best guess and I will not be surprised if there is another twist in the tale...


MTF...P2

[Peetwo]

Captain's Log 01.01.17: HSSS archive entry 170101

References:

From 'that man' in the Oz today writes that the AFAP (Australia's biggest pilot association) is amongst other pilot groups and aircraft accident investigators calling for the MH370 SIO search to continue..

‘Don’t abandon MH370 search’
12:00amEAN HIGGINS
Pilots and crash investigators have warned against allowing Malaysia to ‘get away’ with not continuing the MH370 hunt.

What now for the JIT Annex13 MH370 investigation?

All excellent OBS from "V" & the Gobbledock but what will it mean when the final Fugro ship leaves the SIO 7th Arc area?

"V" mentions international conventions and although I'm a little hazy on the maritime conventions I am a little bit more cognisant of the aviation conventions that being ICAO SARPs, in particular Annex 12 & 13.

It is my understanding that at the moment Annex 13 continues to hold the primacy of both the MH370 'search & recovery' and indeed the investigation...

...Ok so coming back to my original question - in line with 'international conventions', by rights this should mean the Malaysian JIT Annex 13 investigation can continue. Supposedly the investigation has been in some sort of holding pattern, so now the investigation formalities can be completed and the JIT can move to drafting a final report for DIP (directly interested parties) review.

The review process could be lengthy considering the numerous and influential parties involved and the vagaries of what is effectively an incomplete and inconclusive investigation...

However given most DIPs have representatives involved in either (or both) the SSWG and the JIT it is highly probable there has been much discussion already on the final make up and conclusions of a final report, based on not finding MH370. 

My best guess for the FR would be within 6 months. However as has been shown throughout the whole Malaysian MH370 (cock-up/cover-up) debacle, this is a very tentative best guess and I will not be surprised if there is another twist in the tale...

MH370 & what now speculation rife?

A few further entries to the great MH370 what now debate: On the 1st SBG for 2017 EIC P9 speculates that it is all over bar the shouting...

"..By the end of this year, 370 will be a dim, distant memory to the majority – “Oh, was that the one disappeared all those years ago - more tea Vicar?– did they ever find it?.."

And in comments off the Higgins last Friday piece, general consensus runs along the same vein that we gave it a shot, time to move on:

Richard

I would have thought this accident could be pinned on a member of the flight crew without finding the cockpit voice recorder, which might, only might, indicate who was at the controls. It may have been turned off as well. Finding any other wreckage won't show who is at the controls and what they where thinking. I think we've given it a good go, spent enough, it time to say it's the end.

Although I find the comment from Andrew of why they stuck with searching that one little box a bit bizarre and bereft of all rational reasoning or intelligent thought:

Andrew

Perhaps Mike Keane needs to be reminded that the ATSB did consider the argument of a controlled glide/ditching. That analysis resulted in a search area so vast that it could not be properly searched with the available resources. They stuck with the unresponsive crew theory because the available evidence indicated it was (and still is) a distinct possibility and because it also yielded a search area that could actually be managed. What were they supposed to do, sit back and do nothing?

Imagine for a minute if AMSA was to scope their SAR operations down to one small box because: "..Oh we don't have the available resources for anymore than that.."

However back to ToRs and I personally feel that there is bugger all chance that committed MH370 followers and truth seekers will easily let the slimy bureaucrats and pollywaffles slink off to their Latte wankfests or 5 star taxpayer funded lunches, without so much as a brouhaha...

Besides the speculation and private search effort rumours continues, this time with another insightful but more generalised article from Barbara Peterson off the excellent publication Popular Mechanics... :

2016 Was the Year of the Unsolved Plane Crash
Several incidents, including MH370, remain troublingly unresolved.


   
By Barbara Peterson
Dec 29, 2016
 
By Barbara Peterson
Dec 29, 2016
[/url]
As 2016 winds to a close, a last gasp gets under way. In a faraway corner of the Southern Hemisphere the deep-sea search vessel Fugro Equator begins what will likely be the last journey in an apparently fruitless $200 million quest to find the wreckage of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370.

No one really expects this foray to find the remains of the missing Boeing 777, which disappeared nearly three years ago. In fact, a recent review by experts concluded investigators may have been [url=http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2016/12/20/mh370-wrong-search-area/]searching in the wrong place all along. When the voyage ends in early January, the three nations backing the search— Malaysia, China and Australia—have signaled they'll pull the plug on the entire mission unless new evidence surfaces.

That decision has enraged not only the families of the 239 people aboard MH370 but also aviation professionals, who argue that leaving a high-profile disaster unsolved is itself a threat to aviation safety. The president of the Australian Federation of Air Pilots, David Booth, cited the importance of recovering the wreckage of every single plane crash to determine the cause, and said the global aviation industry should rally to "fund a search of all feasible areas."

It's easy to see why flying pros are so concerned. MH370 may be the most famous unsolved mystery of the past few years, but it's for from the only major aviation accident that hasn't been resolved, at least to the satisfaction of safety experts.

The October 2015 explosion of a Metrojet A321 bound for St. Petersburg over the Sinai Peninsula was deemed to be an act of terrorism after an ISIS group took credit. But more than a year later, many questions persist about how, or even if, a bomb was smuggled past security onto a civilian airliner—and if it was an inside job, as some reports have suggested. The jet carried 224 people, mostly from Russia. That country's aviation investigators quickly descended on the scene and concluded from the evidence that an act of sabotage had brought down the plane. Egyptian officials, meanwhile, at first dismissed the bomb theory as an attempt to damage their already faltering tourism business.

The crash of Egyptair Flight 804 in the Mediterranean last May has also resulted in a spate of contradictory statements and accusations. Although Egyptian investigators recently said that traces of explosives were found on some of the 66 victims, whose bodies were retrieved from the bottom of the sea, the causes remain a mystery. Because the flight originated in Paris, the insinuation that a bomb got through French security has roiled relations between the countries. French investigators have accused the Egyptians of skewing the evidence to pin blame on another country.

"The motives of some of those involved (in the probes) can leave you speechless," said John Goglia, a safety consultant and former member of the National Transportation Safety Board. "Most Western countries have laws designed to keep politics out of air crash investigations. But that is not the case in much of the rest of the world."

While the NTSB is not a party to any of these open investigations, a source at the agency did acknowledge that the political interference in these matters is a troubling trend, especially at a time when air crash fatalities are at an all-time low. "We don't often have a lot of major investigations involving Western-built aircraft," he said.

As for MH370, Goglia said that even though the official government funding for the search has run out, that doesn't mean the quest for answers is over.

"The search will continue," he said, "but it will be a privately run," most likely with Boeing taking the lead. "It'll be smaller and more focused, but that's probably better." He noted the similarity to the 1987 crash of a South African Airways 747, also in the southern Indian Ocean. The plane was eventually recovered after years of searching from depths of 16,000 feet.

    
Hmmm....interesting


I dare say much MTF..P2

[Gobbledock]

Interesting point made below;

"The motives of some of those involved (in the probes) can leave you speechless," said John Goglia, a safety consultant and former member of the National Transportation Safety Board. "Most Western countries have laws designed to keep politics out of air crash investigations. But that is not the case in much of the rest of the world."

While the NTSB is not a party to any of these open investigations, a source at the agency did acknowledge that the political interference in these matters is a troubling trend, especially at a time when air crash fatalities are at an all-time low. "We don't often have a lot of major investigations involving Western-built aircraft," he said.

I couldn't agree more about the 'political interference' statement. That has been the root cause of many ATsB issues over the past decades. 'Independent bureau' my hairy ass. And obviously the NTSB would face similar pressure. And for those doubtful about political interference you only need to look at how Julian ASSange and the Ecuadorian Embassy were hobbled by Uncle Sam to see an example of how a Government can interfere and meddle in business they should keep out of.

Tick Tock indeed P2

[Kharon]

On the toss of a coin.

The Peterson article above makes for ‘interesting’ reading, the Gogla words add credibility and balance. All food for thought; and, IMO takes the reader away from the endless speculation on the obvious – who, why, when, where questions and brings us back to the questions of who does know what happened.

That is a coin which could be spun – two choices, no options – Heads or Tails?

Heads – the complete and utter ignorance of ‘the government’ which led to a massive, all out, situation and narrative control frenzy, to cover the simple fact that their system lost track of the aircraft. That the system is so lax an aircraft can ‘disappear’, no one has a clue where it went and the entire system is incapable of ‘tracking’ or relocating the aircraft, which for several hours is wandering across airways at unknown altitudes, speeds and direction: gone ‘dark’ and rogue in international airspace. An ATC system with that amount of holes in the cheese would bring a very prompt governmental response and would explain the outrageous degree of political interference. You would not want a potential enemy state knowing that it is possible to slip through a defence net as easily as a large passenger jet could; now would you.

Tails – the absolute full knowledge of who, what, why and where. Something (pick your favourite) happened – this ‘something’ was; let's say, potentially disastrous in one way or another. So horrendous that the fall out from public knowledge would be unmanageable. That scenario would again cover the reasons for the degree of ‘political’ involvement, secrecy, conflicted narrative and the general muddying of waters.

So, spin the coin, make your call – cock-up or conspiracy, its your bet. But remember, old father time trumps all; and, whoever was running the show has now had lots of help from the old man to bury the bodies, shred the paperwork, cover the tracks and convince the public that it is now considered ‘mission impossible’ to discover the wreck.  Just consider, for one moment the search area selected – of all the places on this planet, it just so happens to be one of the deepest, darkest, most inaccessible, remote places – within the realms of tolerable ‘fuel’ logic.




Aye; ‘tis but the whimsy and speculation of an idle mind, with little else to wonder about other than seeking the elusive second coffee.

Toot toot.

[Peetwo]

On the toss of a coin.

The Peterson article above makes for ‘interesting’ reading, the Gogla words add credibility and balance. All food for thought; and, IMO takes the reader away from the endless speculation on the obvious – who, why, when, where questions and brings us back to the questions of who does know what happened.

That is a coin which could be spun – two choices, no options – Heads or Tails?

Heads – the complete and utter ignorance of ‘the government’ which led to a massive, all out, situation and narrative control frenzy, to cover the simple fact that their system lost track of the aircraft. That the system is so lax an aircraft can ‘disappear’, no one has a clue where it went and the entire system is incapable of ‘tracking’ or relocating the aircraft, which for several hours is wandering across airways at unknown altitudes, speeds and direction: gone ‘dark’ and rogue in international airspace. An ATC system with that amount of holes in the cheese would bring a very prompt governmental response and would explain the outrageous degree of political interference. You would not want a potential enemy state knowing that it is possible to slip through a defence net as easily as a large passenger jet could; now would you.

Tails – the absolute full knowledge of who, what, why and where. Something (pick your favourite) happened – this ‘something’ was; let's say, potentially disastrous in one way or another. So horrendous that the fall out from public knowledge would be unmanageable. That scenario would again cover the reasons for the degree of ‘political’ involvement, secrecy, conflicted narrative and the general muddying of waters.

So, spin the coin, make your call – cock-up or conspiracy, its your bet. But remember, old father time trumps all; and, whoever was running the show has now had lots of help from the old man to bury the bodies, shred the paperwork, cover the tracks and convince the public that it is now considered ‘mission impossible’ to discover the wreck.  Just consider, for one moment the search area selected – of all the places on this planet, it just so happens to be one of the deepest, darkest, most inaccessible, remote places – within the realms of tolerable ‘fuel’ logic.




Aye; ‘tis but the whimsy and speculation of an idle mind, with little else to wonder about other than seeking the elusive second coffee.

Toot toot.

P2 follow up - From that man Higgins today in the Oz:

Boeing could ‘take over’ hunt
12:00amEAN HIGGINS
A veteran aviation expert said Boeing could take up the search for Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370.

A veteran aviation expert said US aircraft manufacturing giant Boeing could take up the search for Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 after Australia, China and Malaysia call it off in coming weeks.

John Goglia, an aviation safety consultant, professor of aviation and former member of the US ­National Transportation Safety Board, said that with national governments — particularly Malaysia — showing little interest in carrying on an underwater survey operation that has cost $200 million so far, he expected the private sector to step in.

“The search will continue, but it will be privately run,” Mr Goglia told Popular Mechanics.

“It’ll be smaller and more focused, but that’s probably better,” he told the US publication.

The Australian-led search for the Boeing 777 in the southern ­Indian Ocean is due to finish this month, with the remaining vessel operated by the Dutch Fugro ­marine survey group on its final sweep of the last corner of the 120,000sq km target zone.

In a report last month, the Australian Transport Safety Bureau, in conjunction with a panel of international experts and the CSIRO, identified a new, smaller search area further north as the next logical area to look.

But the three governments have agreed the search will not be resumed without a precise new lead.

“As agreed with the governments of Malaysia and China, if the aircraft is not found in the current search area, the search will be suspended subject to credible new evidence leading to a specific location,” Transport Minister Darren Chester told The Australian.

As the manufacturer of the Boeing 777, an aircraft model in service around the world, aviation experts have observed it would be in Boeing’s interest to establish whether MH370 went down on March 8, 2014, with 239 people on board as a result of a mechanical problem or human intervention.

However, an international air crash investigator said the choice for Boeing of whether to fund a continued search for MH370 would be a tricky one in terms of legal liability.

“I would be surprised if they made that commitment in this case unless they had some buy-in from their insurance company,” the investigator said.

A Boeing spokesman declined to comment yesterday.

[Peetwo]

The true Goglia take on MH370 -

Talk about Chinese whispers, by Creepy via Airlineratings:

US safety veteran backs call for MH370 search to be extended.


Steve Creedy - editor
04 Jan 2017
Former air accident investigator believes the plane will eventually be found.

Experts will not give up on MH370.

A respected US air safety consultant and former accident investigator has backed calls for the search for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 to be extended to a new 25,000 sq. km area identified by experts as a potential crash site for the Boeing 777.

The new 25,000 sq. km site was identified by a high-powered meeting of international experts in Canberra last year with the help of new data from ocean drift studies.

The meeting concluded that the new area should be searched but the transport ministers of Australia and Malaysia indicated it did not satisfy conditions that there should be credible new evidence leading the identification of a specific location for the March, 2014 crash.

One ship, the Fugro Equator, remains in the search area and is equipped with an autonomous underwater vehicle.

Asked if the Australian, Chinese and Malaysian governments should fund the ship to extend the search to the new potential crash site, former National Transportation Safety Bureau investigator and air safety expert John Goglia said: “I think they should.’’

 But even if the search is not extended, Goglia believes aviation experts will continue to chip away at the mystery until the wreckage is eventually found.

The air safety expert said the media, including AirlineRatings, misconstrued previous comments about the involvement of manufacturer Boeing and he had never claimed the aerospace giant was expected to take over the search.

Instead, he was saying that personnel from parties such as Boeing, satellite company Inmarsat and the Australian Transport Safety Bureau would continue to search for an answer.

 “The search will end but the work will not end,’’ Goglia told AirlineRatings in an interview.

 “That’s where they lost it. I said the work will continue. Boeing will continue the work just like we did on USAir 427.’’

The investigation of the fatal crash of USAir 427 near the Pennsylvanian city of Pittsburgh in 1994 still ranks as the NTSB’s longest running investigation.  It took investigators almost five years to conclude that a malfunction of a rudder component could be triggered by a rare combination of variables that included microscopic rubber particles in hydraulic fluid, the temperature of the fluid and the outside temperature.

Goglia, who played a key role in this and other high-profile NTSB probes,  said about two years into the investigation the bureau hit “brick walls everywhere’’.

“So we don’t have it, ‘’ he said. “We don’t have any answer and the investigation was put not on hold but on the back burner on low temperature.’’

At that stage, Goglia said, the probe had been scaled down to a full-time NTSB person supported by other bureau personnel as well from parties such as the pilots’ and machinists’ unions and Boeing.

“There was a team of people that would be anywhere from five or six to 12 or 14 that just worked on this for the next three years,’’ he said “About two and a half years into it, they started to hit pay dirt.’’

He believes a similar process will occur with MH370.

“I believe it will be found,’’ he said “Not tomorrow, not next month but I believe it will be found.’’

The investigator agreed there was also a possibility that a private individual or company would take up the search for MH370.

In 2015, Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen found the wreck of the long-lost World War II Japanese super battleship Musashi near the Philippines.  The philanthropist spent eight years searching for the Musashi which was sunk in the Battle for Leyte Gulf on October 24, 1944.

Other privately funded expeditions have found the Titanic, German battleship Bismarck and the pride of the Royal Navy the HMS Hood.

As to what happened to the ill-fated flight and its 239 passengers and crew,  Goglia believes it involved human intervention because of the way the plane changed course and is not convinced by theories there was an on-board fire.

“I am firmly convinced it was a human being who did it,’’ he said. “I’m not convinced it was the flight crew but it was a human being that was on that airplane that made that airplane do what it did.’’

Goglia said the other scenarios involved mechanical failures which were not reported by the crew.

“If you have a fire on board, they get time to call and report,’’ he said “If you have fire downstairs, go down and look and see where all the boxes are for the …  eight different ways to communicate. They’re not close together.

“So there was always a way for the message to get out. Why didn’t it get out if there was a mechanical failure?’’

- See more at: http://www.airlineratings.com//news/996/...5L3ZZ.dpuf

 
MTF...P2

[Peetwo]

Captain's Log 10.01.17: Rosenker the realist -

Via the Daily Telegraph... :

Hope of finding missing flight MH370 all but gone
[img=0x0]http://pixel.tcog.cp1.news.com.au/track/component/article/38fc2ca8e58c11cecb5d76a0ce093a5a?esi=true&t_template=s3/chronicle-tg_tlc_storyheader/index&t_product=DailyTelegraph&td_device=desktop[/img]Joshua Dowling, News Corp Australia Network
January 8, 2017 10:00pm
[img=0x0]http://pixel.tcog.cp1.news.com.au/track/component/article/38fc2ca8e58c11cecb5d76a0ce093a5a?esi=true&t_template=s3/chronicle-tg_tlc_storymeta/index&t_product=DailyTelegraph&td_device=desktop[/img]
US air safety expert and former National Transport Safety Bureau chairman Mark Rosenker says we won’t find Malaysia Airlines MH370, which went missing over the Indian Ocean more than 1000 days ago.

National Transport Safety Bureau chairman Mark Rosenker says we won’t find Malaysia Airlines MH370, which went missing over the Indian Ocean more than 1000 days ago.

Mr Rosenker, a former US Airforce Reserve Major General and the head of the NTSB from 2006 to 2009, said finding the aircraft, and what happened to the 239 passengers and crew on the fateful flight on 8 March 2014, would now be next to impossible given the vast search area and the time lost looking in the wrong place.

“I am always an optimist but there comes a point, particularly if the aircraft is where they now believe it could be, I don’t know if we’re going to be able to get to it. I’ve never seen anything like this,” Mr Rosenker told News Corp Australia at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, where he presented a report on autonomous cars.

Flight officer Rayan Gharazeddine scans the water in 2014 in the southern Indian Ocean off Australia during a search for the missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370. Picture: AP/Rob Griffith

“Working in water is very challenging for the investigative bodies but I believed, early on, we would probably be able to find it based on the reports that were coming from the investigative bodies, the search and recovery people, the belief that we had found the pings (intermittent communication between satellites and the aircraft).”

However, Mr Rosenker said, the aircraft crash investigation world was “ultimately really disappointed … when found that they weren’t what we thought they were”.

When asked if the limited co-operation from Malaysian authorities in the early stages of the search was a critical setback, Mr Rosenker said: “In the beginning it was horrific. I can’t think of a worse textbook study on how not to do a co-operative effort with a global accident situation, it was terrible. But I think they’ve learned from it and as a result they are much better today than they were 1000 days ago”.

Did the Malaysian authorities allow national pride to get in the way of the search effort in the initial stages?

“I’m not sure it was pride as much as it was recognition and competence,” said Mr Rosenker. “They didn’t understand the implications of what had happened here and what would be necessary to do a co-operative search and rescue and recovery effort.”

When asked if he had a theory on whether MH370 was brought down due to an act of terror or a catastrophic malfunction, Mr Rosenker said: “I have no idea. There are hundreds of things that could have happened from terrorism to an anomaly on board the aircraft. And terrorism meaning the pilot, or somebody else doing something.”

Mr Rosenker said he was still keeping an open mind about the cause of the crash, despite the countless theories.

A Royal Australian Air Force AP-3C Orion from 92 Wing, conducts a low level fly by before dropping stores to HMAS Toowoomba, during Operation SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN in search for the missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370. Picture: Supplied

“There are hundreds of potential causes for what happened. Each is valuable, each is as equitable as the other,” he said.

Mr Rosenker said that authorities did “incredible computer modelling” to mirror the Inmarsat satellite attempts to do a “handshake” with the aircraft, but the false readings led searchers to the wrong area.

“The point they believed it was in — the area that in fact had been marked off — they came to the conclusion they have been looking in the wrong place,” he said.

Mr Rosenker estimates more than $200 million has been spent on the search so far.

“The expense is incredible. We’re talking about $200 million in search, perhaps more. The important thing is to understand what happened (to the aircraft) so we can prevent it from happening again.”

Since retiring from the NTSB, Mr Rosenker has overseen a study into the rollout of autonomous vehicle technology, and is also on the board of directors for a Canadian company called FLYHT, which specialises in supplying real time tracking of aircraft to the airline industry.

So does this mean the ATSB led and Malaysian manipulated & obfuscated endgame for MH370 has been ultimately successful -

MTF...P2

[Curtis]

@all

nihonmama`s last release of the leaked RMP report -
https://twitter.com/nihonmama/status/817846606821101568
with appendix contains on pages 127 to 130 a graphical time line of communications including the ping times.


It is very (!) stunning to see there are different ping times mentioned than known in public - these pings times are in Mal. time at 02.11 am, 03.11 am,... and so forth until 08.11 am and the last at 08.19 am.
That are 8 pings (labeled as "1st", "2nd", "3rd" up to "7th" for the 08.11 am ping, and the 08.19 am is marked with "Last ping".
So 1 more ping than we know. No re logon at 02.25 am. And no pings ending on 41 minutes to the hour. And the satcom calls from MAS ops apparently were NOT resetting the timer for the interrogation.


Is there anybody who has a logical explanation for this? IMO grotesque.

[Kharon]

I'd like to help / learn. I’ve an open mind on most things. My email is published: mikechillit@hushmail.com. Thanks

Curtis Mike Chillit is available on 'Twitter' and will try to help solve your puzzle; there is also a MC 7th arc blog which is worth reading - and he has provided an email address above. Mike's on the side of the angels, so hunt him down. We too would like to see an answer.

Cheers

[Curtis]

@Kharon
Although i am too old to look like an angel, and too young to fly as one, i will write to Mr. Chillit.
Thank You.

[Peetwo]

Captain's Log 13.01.17 -

More on RMP files & French 'Envoyé special' program.

For those interested here are some more leaked RMP files, links courtesy of Julie N:

8. Sim Data https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxovjdGbD3OHT0k4dkpTb3gxQjYzYjJJUFpUU3g0WTlXR0g4/view … Sim Analysis https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxovjdGbD3OHYmJZbzFhS0s5WE1RWHpHdjh0NDBFcE9RTW9F/view … Preliminary computer examination https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxovjdGbD3OHMzQtOHN5Q0VjcHBaVUd5UWQxOHR1b3dieVdr/view 

---

[/url]9. Download 4: zip file (227 pgs) contains info from multiple appendices. From pg 199 also includes SIM DATA https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxovjdGbD3OHc1hBRFVfdXA2N2c/view 

---

10. Download 5: RMP Folder 4 — Communications and Multi Media https://drive.google.com/open?id=0BxovjdGbD3OHc2ppUkU4Yko3bzA 

---

11. Download 6: RMP Folder 5: Aircraft Record and DCA Radar Data https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxovjdGbD3OHZUJSdUtQd0ZQM2JQb2ZwZkFnX21WZHBHMjNz/view 

---

12. Download 7: RMP Folder 6: ATC, audio transcript, speaker recognition analysis, ACARS, SITA, Inmarsat & RR [url=https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxovjdGbD3OHOHE5UkhFYjVjV2xNQUpaOHUtQ1pDQ2V4a0VZ/view]https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxovjdG...4a0VZ/view 

Which brings me to a recent tweet (OBS) from Julie on the broadcast overnight in France of the 'Envoyé special' program on MH370: 

ALL: Based on tonight's #EnvoyeSpecial, it's also clear that the RMP files leaked to me are MISSING (at least) 3 folders: 3, 7 and 8. #MH370

And this was a summary of the program provided by Oceankoto...

{P2 comment - I will attempt to keep up with what more revelations/developments come out of the French program and the RMP leaked files } 

To follow up on my 'Rosenker the realist' post, while trolling the JW blog I noted a couple of posts from a 'David' that pretty much (IMO) nails down the true 'elephant' or 'blue whale' in the SIO - see HERE - that for some reason the MSM (until recently with the Oz) have conveniently or negligently overlooked...

The elephant:

However they are not the elephant. Were there was a pilot at the end he could have pushed his nose down sharply (if BFO are to be satisfied) then glided beyond search areas past, proposed, or otherwise might be. He could have extended fuel consumption on the way by step climbing. He could have been responsible for both logs-on.

While there is no evidence there was a pilot there is none ruling it out either. Therein I regret to say is a stopper to finding a ‘specific location’ in which there can be confidence.

And the question that was left IMO too late to ask:

After the ATSB decided, necessarily, to make this assumption, for the search area to be practicable, the effect of that on search success probability went unremarked, at least publicly.

Without evidence either way the possibility of there being a pilot was around 50/50. Had it been assumed there had been one the search area would have been multiplied (glide distance say 100 miles) and the prospects of finding the wreckage in the search area settled on would have been less than halved. A 50% chance of there being a pilot still lowers the 90% a good deal and to that should be added the like effect of other assumptions (eg route weightings and simplifications).

The outcome is that had the funders been aware of the much lower search probability they might not have approved the search, that is unless politics overrode. In either case the next-of-kin and public were misled, presumably inadvertently.

   
This is the clanger...

"..So as to your above remark, as things stand there is little prospect of either the three countries or any benefactor standing up and swallowing the cost unless that elephant can be shot..."

IMO there is strong evidence to suggest that certain DIPs to this smelly investigation & search effort, have no intention of that rogue elephant being identified let alone 'shot'...

Why? David either very cleverly or naively points out why:

Were the ATSB search report to reflect on this, and bearing in mind the prospects of there having been a pilot now remain much the same, there might well be grounds to abandon the search for wreckage rather than suspend it on the grounds the prospects are unlikely to improve enough, clearing the way for a final report by Malaysia.

Naturally any unexpected development could lead to reopening of the investigation. There is precedent for this.

Definitely MTF on this and the vagaries of ICAO signatory States potentially interfering/compromising the integrity and independence of an Annex 13 sanctioned international AAI...

MTF...P2

Ps Hmm...wonder if the ATSB TSI Act still applies with the MH370 Annex 13 JIT investigation?

24 Offence to hinder etc. an investigation

(1) A person is guilty of an offence if:

(a) the person engages in conduct; and

(b) the person is reckless as to whether the conduct will

adversely affect an investigation:

(i) that is being conducted at that time; or

(ii) that could be conducted at a later time into an

immediately reportable matter; and

© the conduct has the result of adversely affecting such an

investigation (whether or not the investigation had

commenced at the time of the conduct); and

(d) the conduct is not authorised by the Executive Director.

Maximum penalty: Imprisonment for 6 months.

[Curtis]

@all

nihonmama`s last release of the leaked RMP report -
https://twitter.com/nihonmama/status/817846606821101568
with appendix contains on pages 127 to 130 a graphical time line of communications including the ping times.


It is very (!)  stunning to see there are different ping times mentioned  than known in public - these pings times are in Mal. time at 02.11 am, 03.11 am,... and so forth until 08.11 am and the last at 08.19 am.
That are 8 pings (labeled as "1st", "2nd", "3rd" up to "7th" for the 08.11 am ping, and the 08.19 am is marked with "Last ping".
So 1 more ping than we know. No re logon at 02.25 am. And no pings ending on 41 minutes to the hour. And the satcom calls from MAS ops apparently were NOT resetting the timer for the interrogation.


Is there anybody who has a logical explanation for this? IMO grotesque.

Coming back to this:
MChillit and me were not able to find a reasonable explanation for this "anomaly".  Either a not easy to fathom mishap by the police or a monstrous contradiction to the data log. OTOH in the leaked RMP report the known data log from Fact.Info is also part of it, with the then known pings times.
Unless more becomes known i think we are dealing with a mishap by the police. Bad enough. And not helpful.
Maybe the "missing" folders (3,7,8 - see nihonmama twitter TL) can shed some light on this.

Have a good one, You all.
C.

[Peetwo]

Captain's Log 17.01.17: ATSB search all over bar the shouting -

Here is the official version courtesy of DDDD_MNFI Chester's miniscule webpage..  :

MH370 Tripartite Joint Communiqué

---

Media Release
DC013/2017
17 January 2017
Joint release with:
The Hon Dato' Sri Liow Tiong Lai
Malaysian Minister of Transport
The Hon Mr Li Xiaopeng
People's Republic of China Minister of Transport

---

Today the last search vessel has left the underwater search area. Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 has not been located in the 120,000 square-kilometre underwater search area in the southern Indian Ocean.

Despite every effort using the best science available, cutting edge technology, as well as modelling and advice from highly skilled professionals who are the best in their field, unfortunately, the search has not been able to locate the aircraft.

Accordingly, the underwater search for MH370 has been suspended.

The decision to suspend the underwater search has not been taken lightly nor without sadness. It is consistent with decisions made by our three countries in the July 2016 Ministerial Tripartite meeting in Putrajaya Malaysia.

Whilst combined scientific studies have continued to refine areas of probability, to date no new information has been discovered to determine the specific location of the aircraft.
We have been overwhelmed by the commitment and dedication shown by the hundreds of people involved in the search, which has been an unprecedented challenge. Their tireless work has continued to improve our knowledge of the search area and has been critical in our efforts to locate the aircraft. We would like to reiterate our utmost appreciation to the many nations that have provided expertise and assistance since the early days of this unfortunate tragedy.

Today's announcement is significant for our three countries, but more importantly for the family and friends of those on board the aircraft. We again take this opportunity to honour the memory of those who have lost their lives and acknowledge the enormous loss felt by their loved ones.

We remain hopeful that new information will come to light and that at some point in the future the aircraft will be located.

And a media report courtesy of the ABC:

MH370: Search for missing Malaysia Airlines plane suspended
By political reporter Henry Belot
Tue 17 Jan 2017, 6:00pm


Photo: The Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777, carrying 239 people, disappeared in March 2014. (Wikimedia: Ercan Karakas, file photo)

The search for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 has been suspended, with authorities unable to locate the aircraft in the Indian Ocean.

The passenger plane carrying 239 passengers and crew, including six Australians, disappeared on March 8, 2014 while travelling between Kuala Lumpur and Beijing.
Its disappearance is one of the greatest mysteries in aviation history, with authorities unsuccessfully searching 120,000 square kilometres of the ocean floor.

In a joint statement, the Australian, Malaysian and Chinese governments said the decision to abandon the search was not taken lightly, or without sadness.

"Despite every effort using the best science available, cutting-edge technology, as well as modelling and advice from highly skilled professionals who are the best in their field, unfortunately, the search has not been able to locate the aircraft," the statement said.

"Whilst combined scientific studies have continued to refine areas of probability, to date no new information has been discovered to determine the specific location of the aircraft."

In July last year authorities warned the hunt would be suspended if the latest search did not yield any results.

The three Government representatives said they had been overwhelmed by the commitment and dedication of those involved in the search.

"Their tireless work has continued to improve our knowledge of the search area and has been critical in our efforts to locate the aircraft," the statement said.


Photo: Search crews have been trawling the Indian Ocean for the missing Boeing 777. (Supplied: ATSB, photo by Mel Proudlock)

"We would like to reiterate our utmost appreciation to the many nations that have provided expertise and assistance since the early days of this unfortunate tragedy."
Earlier this month, Malaysian Transport Minister Liow Tiong Lai rejected calls for relatives of passengers on board the MH370 to extend the search.

Australian authorities also rejected calls to extend the search, claiming there was a lack of credible evidence.

A total of 33 pieces of wreckage suspected to be from the plane have been found, including parts of wings and a tail, on the shores of Mauritius, the French Indian Ocean island of Reunion, Mozambique, Tanzania and South Africa.

The three representatives, including Australian Transport Minister Darren Chester, said the announcement was an important development for the families of passengers and crew.

"We again take this opportunity to honour the memory of those who have lost their lives and acknowledge the enormous loss felt by their loved ones," they said.

"We remain hopeful that new information will come to light and that at some point in the future the aircraft will be located."

In December, an Australian Government report found authorities had likely been looking in the wrong section of ocean.

"There is a high degree of confidence that the previously identified underwater area searched to date does not contain the missing aircraft," the Australian Transport Safety Bureau report said.

At the time, Mr Chester said he was still hopeful authorities would find the plane in the search area.

A report released by the ATSB a month earlier found it was unlikely the Boeing 777 was in a controlled descent when it crashed into the ocean.

Sad day for NOK, the extended families and former friends of the 239 lost souls of MH370, our thoughts are with you...P2