[Peetwo]

Byron Bailey calls for a Senate inquiry into MH370 -  

From off Chester's thread..

Chester's selfie tour temporarily suspended -

Canberra refuses call to reveal ‘secrets’ on missing Malaysian plane.


Ean Higgins
The Australian
12:00AM July 25, 2016

[img=0x0]http://pixel.tcog.cp1.news.com.au/track/component/author/0573acb566bb47c45e64e4c55a998aba/?esi=true&t_product=the-australian&t_template=s3/austemp-article_common/vertical/author/widget&td_bio=false[/img]
Labor has called on the federal government to reveal what it knows about the FBI’s reported evidence that Malaysia Airlines captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah ­deliberately brought down Flight MH370, contrary to Australian authorities’ decision to adopt a “ghost plane” scenario with ­unconscious pilots that produced a narrower search area.

But Infrastructure and Transport Minister Darren Chester ­refused the push, saying the matter was one for “Malaysian investigators to consider” despite the fact Australian taxpayers are contributing tens of millions of dollars to the hunt for the aircraft.

Labor transport spokesman Anthony ­Albanese yesterday told The Australian the government had a duty to the families of the victims to explain what information it had.

The new claims have rocked the ­debate of what happened to MH370 just as the governments of Australia, Malaysia and China said they would wind up the search in coming months.

GRAPHIC — The MH370 mystery

“My concern all along has been the need for clarity for the families affected by this tragedy,” Mr Albanese said. “The Australian government should be transparent about what it knows about issues related to this.”

MH370 disappeared on a flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing on March 8, 2014, with 239 passengers and crew on board.

With its transponder turned off and radio contact cut two hours into the flight, radar and satellite tracking data showed the Boeing 777 reversed course back over the Malaysia-Thai border, before heading south to the southern ­Indian Ocean.

New York magazine published an article at the weekend saying it had obtained access to a secret FBI report that showed Zaharie had used his elaborate home computer flight simulator less than a month before the aircraft vanished to conduct a simulated flight along a route closely matching that actually taken by MH370.

New York quoted the FBI document as saying in part: “Based on the Forensics Analysis conducted on the 5 HDDs ­obtained from the Flight Simulator from MH370 Pilot’s house, we found a flight path, that lead (sic) to the Southern Indian Ocean, among the numerous other flight paths charted on the Flight Simulator.”

That the FBI had succeeded in recovering the flight simulator data, and concluded Zaharie had hijacked his own aircraft, was first revealed by Australian pilot Byron Bailey writing in The Weekend Australian in January, quoting an Australian government source.

Captain Bailey and British airline pilot Simon Hardy have ­argued the search has been in the wrong area because rather than crashing down sharply after running out of fuel because the pilots were unconscious, as assumed by the Australian Transport Safety Bureau, a conscious “rogue pilot” could have glided the aircraft much further or conducted a controlled ditching under power.

When Captain Bailey revealed what he had been told about the FBI conclusion, the ATSB and the FBI refused to confirm or deny the report.

Critics such as Captain Bailey have claimed the Australian government and the ATSB have known all along, including from the secret FBI report, that Zaharie hijacked the aircraft, but went with the “ghost plane” scenario to avoid embarrassing Malaysia, which would not want a conclusion its pilot deliberately took down a jet.

The specific document New York claims to have uncovered adds weight to Captain Bailey’s original revelation, and the magazine described it as “the strongest evidence yet that Zaharie made off with the plane in a premeditated act of mass murder-suicide’’.

Reuters news agency also reported at the weekend that the project director of the underwater search, Paul Kennedy of Dutch survey group Fugro, said the rogue pilot theory might be right after all.

“You could glide it for further than our search area is, so I believe the logical conclusion will be, well, maybe, that is the other scenario,” Reuters quoted Mr Kennedy as saying.

Australia agreed to a request from Malaysia, which under international law is responsible for the investigation into the loss of the Malaysian-registered aircraft, to take charge of the underwater search, and the ATSB considered three scenarios when considering where to look.

The first was an “in-flight upset” in which the flight runs normally with regular radio communications until “an unexpected upset event such as a stall due to icing, thunderstorm, system failure etc” — a scenario easily rejected because it clearly did not fit the known facts of a flight that was not normal and incommunicado almost from the start.

The second scenario was “a glide event” involving “normal en route manoeuvring of the aircraft”, fuel exhaustion and engine failure and a “pilot- controlled glide”.

The third scenario was that of “an unresponsive crew/hypoxia event”, generally categorised by aircraft decompression leading to loss of oxygen and the aircrew passing out, no pilot intervention, and loss of control when the aircraft ran out of fuel, leading to a rapid crash.

Had it gone with the “pilot-controlled glide” event, the ATSB would have had to say it thought MH370 was hijacked by Zaharie. Instead, it went with the “unresponsive crew/hypoxia event” despite clear evidence that the first part of the flight, since it turned off course, involved very deliberate flying.

In a statement to The Australian, Mr Chester said: “Recent media reports regarding information collected from MH370 captain’s home flight simulator are a matter for the Malaysian investigators to consider.

“Everyone is entitled to an opinion and to speculate on possible scenarios but I won’t be second-guessing the experts from Australia and around the world who have had access to all of the available data.

“All end-of-flight scenarios have been considered including controlled and uncontrolled flight in determining the 120,000sq km search area.”

This was Byron Bailey's overnight contribution to the regurgitated debate:

It’s time for Senate probe into what’s known on Flight MH370

• Byron Bailey
  
• The Australian
  
• 12:00AM July 25, 2016
  

The truth has a way of coming out, even if it takes a couple of years.

The head of the Dutch company running the three ships searching for Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 now believes they have been searching in the wrong area because it is likely that a pilot was at the controls and “glided” the aircraft to a different location.

FBI data from the MH370 captain’s home computer shows he plotted a course into the southern Indian Ocean and that it was a ­deliberate planned murder/­suicide.

I was told this two years ago and was also told that the FBI had told the Australian Transport Safety Bureau all this.

Why did the ATSB then persist with the BS theory of an unres­ponsive flight crew, which did not make sense to us pilots?

For nearly two years I have been writing articles in The Daily Telegraph and The Australian pointing out the absurdity and falsities coming from the ATSB, which even had then deputy prime minister Warren Truss leaping to its defence by criticising me over what I and my airline colleagues considered a rubbish ATSB report from last December.

So idiotic and fanciful was this report that I tried it out in a B777 simulator, knowing what the ­result would be: if the crew were unresponsive, then on second-­engine flame-out due to fuel exhaustion the autopilots would disconnect and this huge aircraft would rapidly enter a terminal vertical dive hitting the sea at 1200km/h smashing into thousands of pieces some of which would have floated indefinitely. This never happened.

The ATSB favourite falsity was that all the evidence points to an unresponsive flight crew. Bollocks.

The fact that the plane turned southwest three minutes after the captain said goodnight to Kuala Lumpur air traffic control means it was under control, otherwise it would have flown itself to the programmed destination, ­Beijing. It was under control 90 minutes later when it turned south, north of Sumatra.

The other favourite falsity pushed by the ATSB in the media was that the evidence does not support a controlled ditching. Again bollocks. It is the lack of ­evidence that supports an attempted ditching in heavy seas.

How is it that a taxpayer funded government department can be so devious? To ignore the massive amount of negative opinion coming from me, with many thousands of hours in command of B777s, and later other very exper­ienced pilots who joined the chorus means the ATSB was ­either totally incompetent and too stubborn to admit it had made a mistake at the start of the whole MH370 saga, or it was a deliberate cover-up.

Perhaps it was fear of the MH370 captain being regarded like Egyptair co-pilot Gamil al-Batouti, who deliberately crashed his B767 out of New York in 1999.

Recovery and analysis by the US NTSB of the flight data ­recorder showed he held the control column forward all the way down in the terminal dive to crash into the sea. Analysis of the cockpit voice recorder showed ­religious prayers being shouted. It is commonly ­believed he martyred himself in an act of mass murder/suicide.

The Seven Network reported that the FBI said that MH370 was a murder/suicide by the captain Zaharie Shah. Did the “ friendly” Malaysian government influence our government because of liability concerns? Payout over the murder of 238 passengers could run into billions.

This whole farce of the search for MH370 has occupied nearly 2½ year, and cost Australian taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars.

What I would like to know is who made the decision, despite all the evidence to the contrary, to stay with a rubbish, unresponsive flight crew theory that has resulted in the search being conducted in the wrong area.

The ATSB should be the subject of a Senate inquiry — as should the Civil Aviation Safety Authority. Tony Abbott, Truss, former ATSB chief Martin Dolan and Transport Minister Darren Chester should be quizzed about what they knew more than two years ago from information supplied by the FBI and why it was not acted upon. The taxpayers of Australia need answers.

Byron Bailey is a former RAAF fighter pilot and trainer and was a senior captain with Emirates for 15 years, during which he flew the same model B777 as Flight MH370.

As for the FBI leak I am still holding reservations on whether it is bogus or not, it is all just a bit too convenient for mine, however this bit...

..The ATSB should be the subject of a Senate inquiry — as should the Civil Aviation Safety Authority... 

..I totally agree with in principle. However if it can be proven that Dolan & the ATSB were in possession of this information all along, then I believe that the whole festering, corrupt crew that administer, oversight and investigate aviation safety (including the Dept) should be brought before at least a judicial inquiry...

A Senate Inquiry simply does not have the horsepower and as history highlights these agencies are repeat offenders at obfuscating and/or ignoring all findings and recommendations (some 60 odd in the last 5 years) that a non-partisan, extremely diligent, well informed & aviation savvy Senate Committee has previously produced...


MTF...P2

    
Ps ..Labor transport spokesman Anthony ­Albanese yesterday told The Australian the government had a duty to the families of the victims to explain what information it had...

...“My concern all along has been the need for clarity for the families affected by this tragedy,” Mr Albanese said. “The Australian government should be transparent about what it knows about issues related to this.”...

Got to wonder where Albo thinks he is going with all this?? Especially when you consider Albo's positively stinking performance with the PelAir cover-up, where he seemingly didn't give a toss about the Australian victims involved, rather he was more interested in saving his moribund ass...

Also consider that Albo was originally responsible for hiring Dolan and McCormick, two individuals that in the last decade carry much of the responsibility for the huge pain, shame and decline that the aviation industry in Australia currently finds itself in.

[Peetwo]

MH370 - "Bus stop..do the bus stop.." -  

MH370 - 'On the buses'.

Via the Oz today:

MH370: report not for Australia to reveal says Malcolm Turnbull

In a very disturbing follow-up to today's Oz article, the 'under the bus' Conga line is rapidly expanding.. Courtesy the other Aunty's PM crew :

MH370: Australia kept Malaysia's face saving secret that pilot chief suspect
Updated 29 minutes ago Mon 25 Jul 2016, 7:00pm

Australia knew two years ago of evidence in Malaysia that the captain of the missing MH370 airliner made off with the plane. But the Government kept secret the evidence that suggested that it was a premeditated act of mass murder.

Peter Lloyd

Source: PM | Duration: 5min 6sec
Topics: air-and-space, government-and-politics, malaysia, australia
Hide transcript

MARK COLVIN: We begin tonight with the revelation that Australia knew two years ago of evidence in Malaysia that the captain of the missing MH370 airliner made off with the plane.

But the Government kept secret the evidence that suggested that it was a premeditated act of mass murder.

A senior search official has confirmed to PM that only days after the plane disappeared, there was undisclosed evidence that Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah had practiced a strangely similar flight plan weeks before, on a $25 simulator game.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull came close to confirming it during a media conference today, but insisted it was a matter for Malaysia to reveal.

PM has been told that the evidence of a computer simulated flight decided the search zone off the WA coast, but that too was kept secret from taxpayers.

In a further blow to relatives, PM has also been told that cost considerations saw Australia, Malaysia and China quietly shelve a plan to continue searching for the plane.

---

PETER LLOYD: It may not have been his intention, but today the Prime Minister's choice of words made him the first leader of an MH370 search nation to abandon the policy of denial and confirm that there is indeed police evidence that the plane's disappearance was no accident, no mystery at all to the Malaysian government.

MALCOLM TURNBULL:

---

PM has been told that it was Australia that crafted the language of the exit strategy deployed last Friday in the communique

COMMUNIQUE (voiceover): Ministers agreed that should the aircraft not be located in the current search area, and in the absence of credible new evidence leading to the identification of a specific location of the aircraft, the search would not end, but be suspended upon completion of the 120,000 square kilometre search area.

---

PM has been trying to contact the Transport Minister Darren Chester for a response for the last four days, but so far has received no response

 
The part in bold above??- Sheesh the plot thickens, this bit..

"..PM has been told that it was Australia that crafted the language of the exit strategy deployed last Friday in the communique.."

Coupled with this post from "K" - Au revoir; Muthafuccas. - there is definitely something smelly in Dodge??

Even so.

I find agreement with much of what Byron says, certainly with regard to the ‘official’ involvement.  The machinations of both governments and the ATSB are deplorable.  This further aggravated by the certain knowledge and evidence that under Dolan, the ‘official’ line could not be relied on to act in the best interests of the public.  

I believe we can agree that the aircraft was under the command and control of someone – just who (or what) that ‘someone’ is (or was) is a question which has not been satisfactorily answered. If; and it remains a big if; the Captain was the perpetrator, why not just own up to the fact?  Why continue to deepen the mystery and keep the mystery story ‘fresh’?  It defies PR logic.  The furore, headlines and media attention associated with the last two ‘suicide/murder’ events was over in a short space of time – for the public at large.  The Malaysians had a tailor made, bespoke, perfectly serviceable reason gifted to them, the first time it was mooted that the pilot had planned and executed this tragedy.  So why was it shelved for two years, before appearing as a ‘leak’ from the FBI?   Sorry; just can’t get comfy with that notion.

At a stretch, one could cosy up to the notion that this event was a ‘hi-jack’ and a deep cover story was needed so not to alarm the world at large about the ease, sophistication or threat of the event.  To protect the security and confidence of the travelling public, then, perhaps governments would go to the extraordinary lengths we have witnessed to keep the ‘facts’ secret, that would be a game worthy of the candle.  But for a ‘rogue’ pilot event, they would not throw in the amount of theatre we have seen; they’d ‘fess up and move on; game over.  Maybe ‘they’ shot the thing down to prevent a 9/11 event – who knows.  But only an event of that magnitude would merit the treatment, drama and mystery which surrounds this case.  The Egyptians seem to be managing a search and recovery without all the fuss – as did the Europeans with the GW event – so what’s so special about MH 370 that it needs such a hodge-podge of confusion, deception and window dressing?

It is all too dramatic for reality – too much window dressing – too much confusion – too many conflicting facts and now, with government heavyweights steaming in to defend, obfuscate and deny deep involvement just puts the icing on a very ugly pile of faecal matter.

Let’s hope that the smooth exit strategy continues to backfire. Turnbull’s inherited poison chalice has been passed down to him through many hands which is a fact of life he cannot change – but to ask Chester to hold on to it and not spill a drop – is a fact of life he can change. Credibility needs witness to support it, the only testimony which can, hand on heart, be provided is the fact that the fat is well and truly in the fire now.  The pushing and shoving at the Blame St bus stop must be ferocious.  We shall watch with interest as the ruck develops while the bus approaches.  

Toot toot.

Update to the MH370 bus stop diplomacy: First from the ATSB 'correcting the bollocks' page, watch for the double meaning weasel words (my bold)...

...As Infrastructure and Transport Minister Darren Chester said in a statement, the simulator information shows only the possibility of planning. It does not reveal what happened on the night of its disappearance nor where the aircraft is located.

While the FBI data provides a piece of information, the best available evidence of the aircraft’s location is based on what we know from the last satellite communications with the aircraft. This is indeed the consensus of international satellite and aircraft specialists.

Mr Bailey continues to incorrectly claim that the ATSB rejects any possibility that MH370’s disappearance was the result of a person taking control of the aircraft. As the ATSB has previously stated:

For the purposes of its search, the ATSB has not needed to determine – and has made no claims – about what might have caused the disappearance of the aircraft. For search purposes, the relevant facts and analysis most closely match a scenario in which there was no pilot intervening in the latter stages of the flight. We have never stated that hypoxia (or any other factor) was the cause of this circumstance.

Mr Bailey also states that during his experience with a B777 simulator, if the crew were unresponsive, then on second-engine flame-out due to fuel exhaustion the autopilots would disconnect and the aircraft would enter a terminal dive at 1200 km/hr. In fact, extensive testing on Boeing’s (the manufacturer of the missing Boeing 777) simulator shows that after running out of fuel, the aircraft actually stays airborne for several minutes and descends at various rates in a “fugoid”(or wave-like) motion.

It is disappointing that Mr Bailey continues to make false accusations and inaccurate statements in relation to the search for MH370. To determine the search area, the ATSB has worked closely with international experts in satellite communications, aircraft systems, data modelling and accident investigation. This includes specialists from (and who draw on the broader expertise of) the following organisations:

•Air Accidents Investigation Branch (UK)
•Boeing (USA)
•Defence Science and Technology Organisation (Australia)
•Department of Civil Aviation (Malaysia)
•Inmarsat (UK)
•National Transportation Safety Board (USA)
•Thales (UK) - P2 comment - Thales sure has their sticky, multi-national fingers in a lot of pies?? Q/ Why is a multi-national company with many potential conflicts of interest (e.g Malaysian/Australian submarine contracts; Airservices Australia OneSKY contract..etc) associated with any of this?? 

The ATSB’s correction to Mr Bailey’s previous article from 18 January 2016 can be found on this page.

The ATSB has met, on a number of occasions, with the family and friends of MH370 passengers and crew, both in Australia and in Malaysia. Of further concern to the ATSB is the intense personal impact that claims such as Mr Bailey’s has on those who are suffering as a result of this tragedy. - After PelAir & many Estimate hearings since, the veracity of that statement simply beggars belief -  

Ok next in the Oz today the diplomatic duck shoving & obfuscation continues:

 PM’s hands bound on MH370 search secrets

Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 pilot Zaharie Ahmad Shah.[/url]

[url=http://www.theaustralian.com.au/author/Amanda+Hodge]
South East Asia correspondent
Jakarta
@hodgeamanda

[img=0x0]http://pixel.tcog.cp1.news.com.au/track/component/author/e77dda0d0cda6499108d6323ac86ff18/?esi=true&t_product=the-australian&t_template=s3/austemp-article_common/vertical/author/widget&td_bio=false[/img]Australia cannot legally reveal information it may know about the disappearance of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370 without the permission of the Malaysian government, aviation experts confirmed yesterday, as families of victims now suing the carrier pledged to pursue criminal ­action if it were proven the pilot deliberately crashed the plane.

However, The Australian has learned that those families who missed a March 8 deadline to launch legal action would be left with no legal recourse should the disappearance turn out to be a case of pilot suicide/homicide.

Malcolm Turnbull yesterday rejected opposition demands to reveal what he knew about the ill-fated passenger aircraft to families of the victims after New York magazine last weekend cited a leaked FBI report showing MH370 pilot Zaharie Ahmad Shah used a home flight simulator less than a month before the aircraft vanished to practise a flight across the southern Indian Ocean closely matching the route taken by MH370.

The Prime Minister said yesterday: “I’m unable to comment on (the reports) other than to say that it is a matter for the Malaysian investigators when they’re considering their final report into this tragedy. I just note that even if the simulator information does show that it is possible or very likely that the captain planned this shocking event, it does not tell us the location of the aircraft.” Australian aviation lawyer Joseph Wheeler, who represents five Malaysian families suing Malaysian airlines, told The Australian that under internat­ional aviation law, known as the Chicago Convention, the lead ­investigator in any crash is the state where the aircraft was registered, which in the case of MH370 is Malaysia.

“They’re in charge. All other countries, manufacturers and persons that assist that investigation do so by agreement with Malaysia,” he said. Veteran aviation commentator expert Geoffrey Thomas, editor of Airline Ratings.com, also confirmed the gag, saying that while Australia was responsible for the search, given the airline is believed to have gone down in its airspace, “it is a Malaysian investigation and no other party to the investigation may comment unless Malaysia agrees”.

In light of the weekend report Grace Nathan, a spokeswoman for the Malaysian next-of-kin group Voice 370, told The Australian her family and others now pursuing civil action reserved the right to switch to criminal proceedings if the pilot suicide/homicide theory turned out to be true.

• More: Was MH370 a murder-suicide?
  

But the door had closed for families who missed the March 8 deadline for legal action, and families who had accepted payout ­offers from Malaysian Airlines may no longer be covered by ­insurance, she warned.

Under the Montreal Convention on aviation accidents, claimants have two years from the date an aircraft should have arrived at its destination to make their claim for compensation against the carrier. “You can’t start something now because the limitations date has passed but the cases we already have in court can possible be amended to include new information that surfaces,” Ms Nathan said. “If it is proven to be pilot suicide then the insurance becomes void. Malaysian airlines has to pay out compensation and given they are practically bankrupt it would be more bad news. I don’t think families would get any compensation should it be pilot suicide.”

However, a spokeswoman for Malaysian Airline System Berhad said: “MAS has adequate ­insurance coverage in place to meet any legal liability that we may have in respect of those claiming as a consequence of the incident”. Any allegations of pilot suicide were “unfounded and speculative”.

The Malaysian government bailed out the loss-making carrier to the tune of $2 billion following the March 2014 disappearance of MH370, followed in July that same year by the downing of MH17 over Ukraine by surface-to-air mis­siles, killing all 298 people on board.

The Montreal Convention also sets a mandated minimum compensation payment of just under $200,000 for claimants in cases where airlines could not produce evidence to defend themselves — such as when the aircraft cannot be found.

But Mr Wheeler said even if it could be proved that the pilot did deliberately crash the plane that would not change the airline’s liability. He could not comment on its insurance policy.

Ms Nathan said she personally did not believe the crash was pilot suicide but was “prepared to ­accept I could be wrong”.

“For us it’s nothing to do with the money. It’s just the horror of it being some form of terrorism or pilot homicide/suicide is a lot worse for us to stomach than it being an accident.”

The Australian Transport Safety Bureau yesterday rejected claims made by Australian pilot Byron Bailey that Fugro, the Dutch company contracted by ATSB to conduct the underwater search, believes they are searching in the wrong place. It also said data allegedly recovered from the home simulator did not prove Captain Zaharie plotted a course to the southern Indian Ocean while piloting MH370 or intended to crash the plane, though the simulator information showed “the possibility of planning”.   

Ahh yes the old: "..we're sworn to secrecy, bound by international conventions, agreements and the independent principles of ICAO Annex 13 (& now 19)..."

Strange how Malcolm & the Murky Mandarin's minions revert to that kind of rhetoric only when it suits, because in reality Australia is that far removed from being anywhere near conforming to the ICAO Annexures (in excess of 3000 notified differences) that for a supposedly 1st world aviation nation we're a monumental disgrace (e.g. See - here - for the 10 pages of notified differences to Annex 13). Shame on you Malcolm for you now own this..



Much, much MTF...P2  

[ventus45]

Aviation is the only industry on the planet that can get away with this sort of thing.

Only the Aviation Industry has the right to allow the deaths of hundreds of people to be "written off" as an "accident", when it clearly was not.

Both the Chicago Convention and the Montreal Convention, no longer serve any useful  purpose, other than to protect the industry itself, not the public.

MH370 must be the tipping point, that gets both scrapped.



MH17 goes down, and it is a crime.
The legal system cranks up, Interpol, Federal Police, Coronial Inquests etc.

MH370 ?

Nothing.

The Criminal Investigation(s) Organisations of all countries with people on that plane have not lifted a finger, let alone shown any interest in the matter.

At best, they are derelict in their duties to those people.

At worst, they are guilty of complicity, if they either "know" what happened, or have been "told", at the highest levels, to "let it be".

Then we have PM Turbull's statement yesterday.

It can only mean one thing.

They (all involved Governments) want to "bury it".

Why ?

There is only one way to solve the "Riddle of MH370".

We have to figure out "why" all these governments "want", indeed "desperately need", to "bury it".

We have to figure out "what is the common imperative" shared by all the involved governments.

There is only one logical reason.

MH370 was not an aircraft systems accident, nor was it a pilot suicide.

MH370 was a "double hijack disaster", the result of a high stakes game of international espionage and counter espionage.

The first hijack was between Igari and Bitod, where one side took the plane to "snatch back" some people who knew "too much", and who could not be "allowed" to "reach destination".

All went according to plan - flying east - for some time.

But eventually, "the escorting minders" of "the unsuspecting snatched", realized that they had been thwarted.

They launched a "counter hijack".  

In the ensuing battle, it all went terribly wrong, for both sides, and the innocent passengers and crew, and the aircraft crashed.

The crash was not in the SIO, nor was it in the SCS, it was way east of there.

The "French held flaperon" has been locked up, under the cloak of a "Terrorist Investigation".  

Why ?  

Because it has "Pacific Ocean Barnacles", not "Indian Ocean Barnacles".

Que: "Ice Station Zebra" on the VCR.

[Peetwo]

MH370 - 'On the buses'.

MH370: report not for Australia to reveal says Malcolm Turnbull

MH370: Australia kept Malaysia's face saving secret that pilot chief suspect

Ok next in the Oz today the diplomatic duck shoving & obfuscation continues:

 PM’s hands bound on MH370 search secrets

South East Asia correspondent
Jakarta
@hodgeamanda[img=0x0]http://pixel.tcog.cp1.news.com.au/track/component/author/e77dda0d0cda6499108d6323ac86ff18/?esi=true&t_product=the-australian&t_template=s3/austemp-article_common/vertical/author/widget&td_bio=false[/img]

Ahh yes the old: "..we're sworn to secrecy, bound by international conventions, agreements and the independent principles of ICAO Annex 13 (& now 19)..."

Strange how Malcolm & the Murky Mandarin's minions revert to that kind of rhetoric only when it suits, because in reality Australia is that far removed from being anywhere near conforming to the ICAO Annexures (in excess of 3000 notified differences) that for a supposedly 1st world aviation nation we're a monumental disgrace (e.g. See - here - for the 10 pages of notified differences to Annex 13). Shame on you Malcolm for you now own this..

Latest from the MH370 'bus stop' wars. - The 'PLOT THICKENS'

 Again from Amanda Hodge , via the Oz:

Australian officials warned families of MH370 data leak from FBI

New York magazine cited a leaked FBI report which supported the idea of pilot suicide on flight MH370.

• Amanda Hodge
  
• The Australian
  
• 12:00AM July 27, 2016
  

South East Asia correspondent
Jakarta
@hodgeamanda
[img=0x0]http://pixel.tcog.cp1.news.com.au/track/component/author/e77dda0d0cda6499108d6323ac86ff18/?esi=true&t_product=the-australian&t_template=s3/austemp-article_common/vertical/author/widget&td_bio=false[/img]
The FBI has refused to reveal details of a report purportedly showing that the pilot of missing Malaysia Airlines plane MH370 tracked a similar path on a home flight simulator to that taken by the ill-fated aircraft less than a month later, and has referred all questions to Malaysian authorities.

However a spokeswoman for families of MH370 victims has told The Australian the group was warned by Australian officials from the Australian Transport Safety Bureau and the Joint Action Co-ordinating Committee last week that FBI data potentially furthering the theory of pilot suicide was to be published by New York magazine last weekend.

An FBI spokeswoman told The Australian: “The FBI did not publicly release information on the flight, therefore we cannot comment on it. I refer you to the Malaysian authorities for specific questions about the case.”

She had been asked if the FBI had passed on to the Australian Federal Police or other Australian agencies the information it extracted from Malaysia Airlines captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah’s home flight simulator.

Grace Nathan, from next-of-kin group Voice 370, said she and other families met officials from the ATSB and JACC before and after last Friday’s meeting of Australian, Malaysian and Chinese transport ministers that agreed to soon suspend the search.

“We were already told that the article was coming out by JACC and ATSB, who were here for a meeting last Friday,” said Ms Nathan, who lost her mother on the March 2014 flight, which disappeared with 239 people aboard.

“They told us that an independent group had been given the (Zaharie simulator) data by the FBI, so most of us were not surprised when the news came out.”

The New York article cited a leaked FBI report showing Zaharie had used a simulator less than a month before the aircraft’s disappearance to practise a flight across the southern Indian Ocean closely matching MH370’s route.

Ms Nathan said: “I was told by the JACC that the information was provided by the FBI. They work closely with independent groups and said FBI provided information to independent groups who decided they wanted to publish it in New York magazine.”

New York, however, says the FBI findings from the home simulator were returned to Malaysia and someone from Malaysian Police leaked them.

The ATSB in a statement this week acknowledged the FBI data but said it showed “only the possibility of planning. It does not reveal what happened on the night of its disappearance, nor where the aircraft is landed”.

New Zealand-based physicist Duncan Steel, from the so-called Independent Group of investigators into MH370’s disappearance which argues the search has been in the wrong area, denied any of his members had received FBI data or leaked it onwards.

He told The Australian in an email exchange that the Independent Group had no input into the story, nor had it seen the leaked information. “So far as I am aware, the information was given to the writer of the story in NY magazine by a third party in absolute confidence. I am not at liberty to identify the third party (not a Malaysian, nor anybody living in Malaysia or the USA) who originally obtained the leaked information,” Mr Steel wrote.

In a later email, he said information from Captain Zaharie’s home simulator was “quite likely irrelevant and cannot be taken to be evidence of any actual intent to fly such a path” given the route positions were consistent with one terminating at an airfield in Antarctica’s McMurdo Sound.

“It is easy to imagine that an experienced airline captain, bored with flying to the same old places, might like to consider more exotic destinations,” he wrote.

Ms Nathan said she too was sceptical about the theory of pilot suicide. “I keep my mind open and still think anything is possible and if there is merit to (the theory) and it is supported by evidence we need to be open to that.

“Right now it is just another conspiracy theory in a long line of them. But it still throws you for a loop. An accident is one thing but to find out it might have been a homicide or suicide is another.”

The way this latest argy, bargy, shameful and invective rhetoric is going, I may have to start a chronological list of who said what - i.e. a 'he said, she said' shit-list - because I am starting to see a pattern of potential dots & dashes that desperately need to be joined.

As an example taking the Ms Nathan statement from the above Oz article:

“We were already told that the article was coming out by JACC and ATSB, who were here for a meeting last Friday,” said Ms Nathan, who lost her mother on the March 2014 flight, which disappeared with 239 people aboard.


“They told us that an independent group had been given the (Zaharie simulator) data by the FBI, so most of us were not surprised when the news came out.”

Which kind of gels with this quote from the latest ATSB 'Correcting the Bollocks' weasel words:

The ATSB has met, on a number of occasions, with the family and friends of MH370 passengers and crew, both in Australia and in Malaysia. Of further concern to the ATSB is the intense personal impact that claims such as Mr Bailey’s has on those who are suffering as a result of this tragedy.

 
However you would have thought there would have been mention of the JACC/ATSB meeting with the NOK, in the 'correcting the bollocks' statement. That information from Ms Nathan also makes the 'intense personal impact' on the NOK of Bailey's Monday OP piece, quite frankly, and absolute joke because they had already received a head's up that the story was going to break...  This perhaps highlights why is very unwise for a supposedly fully independent Annex 13 State AAI to be partaking in quid, pro, quo rhetoric with a devoted webpage like the ATSB 'correcting the bollocks' page. I don't believe the NTSB or the Canadian TSB see the need for such a page, so why do we??
The following is a couple of PAIN member comments on this latest farcical charade with the MH370 tragedy:

ventus45:[/url]Personally, I think the only way that this can ever be solved, is if the relatives of the 6 Australian Passengers demand that the States Involved, hold Coronial Inquests, which "force" the responsible officers of the Commonwealth Agencies involved, and both the Ministers and the 2 Prime Ministers involved, to give evidence "under oath", and if they lie, or refuse to do so, for "Annex 13", or "National Security" reasons, that they be imprisoned, until after the wreckage is found, in other words, for life.

The fact that our government has decided to condone what is clearly the murder of 6 citizens is beyond the pail.

Canberra has become a stinking cesspool.

The bullshit must stop, regardless of who gets "embarrassed".

&..

[url=http://auntypru.com/forum/-Less-Noise-and-More-Signal?pid=4789#pid4789]BugsyM: So this wild goose chase search into the SIO wasn't just based on the Inmarsat data....they have been withholding information that was supposedly on Shah's flight Sim. He probably had 100's of paths and landing strips on that thing, but because they don't want this plane found, they will use that one flight path that supposedly goes to the SIO and say he did it. What a crock of shit!!!

The whole cock-up has been a cover up from the start, in order to keep what really happened a secret, which was most likely a true hijacking or an accident to do with illegal cargo (ie: the lithium batteries over the limit).

The people making money off this tragedy should hang their heads in shame, its disgusting and wrong. Lying and falsifying documents to prove your theory is just wrong.

If Malaysia had this info and let the public speculate and create conspiracy theories that only helped confuse the world, its exactly what they want to the world to do.

Yes I am starting to think this whole stinking cesspool of lies & deceit definitely needs to go before at least a Senate Inquiry, I can think of a dozen or more very concerned & intelligent international MH370 followers who would be more than happy to make submissions and maybe even appear to give evidence to such an Inquiry...


MTF...P2  

[Peetwo]

Why Australia needs an MH370 inquiry    

"..Yes I am starting to think this whole stinking cesspool of lies & deceit definitely needs to go before at least a Senate Inquiry, I can think of a dozen or more very concerned & intelligent international MH370 followers who would be more than happy to make submissions and maybe even appear to give evidence to such an Inquiry.."

Part I: Cock-ups, cover-ups, lies, deceptions & disinformation

In today's weekend Oz 'that man' Higgins is back with a very comprehensive article that summarises quite succinctly where we are at with the tragic, diabolical, shambolic, shameful ( ) ATSB led MH370 SIO search:   

What lies beneath: Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 search a sham?

The Australian
12:00AM July 30, 2016

Ean Higgins
[/url]
Reporter
[url=https://plus.google.com/116716661262546957732]https://plus.google.com/116716661262546957732
@EanHiggins
[img=0x0]http://pixel.tcog.cp1.news.com.au/track/component/author/0573acb566bb47c45e64e4c55a998aba/?esi=true&t_product=the-australian&t_template=s3/austemp-article_common/vertical/author/widget&td_bio=false[/img]
For the past two years, Paul Kennedy has led the most expensive, logistically difficult and publicly scrutinised underwater search to solve the holy grail of aviation mysteries, the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.

As the Perth-based project director of the Dutch Fugro survey group team whose vessels are still scouring the southern Indian Ocean for the Boeing 777, Kennedy is the man from the point of view of the Australian Transport Safety Bureau, which is orchestrating the search and employing Fugro.

In March last year, the ATSB media unit promoted a propaganda video, now on YouTube, featuring Kennedy, who answered some soft questions from an interviewer. The remoteness of the search zone and the wild seas meant the challenge was tough, Kennedy said in the video.

“We’re more than seven days’ sail from the nearest civilisation, which is Western Australia, so that’s an awful long way if things go wrong,” he added. “It’s rough where we are, it’s terribly rough, so you don’t sleep particularly well, so fatigue is one of our biggest issues offshore.” But Kennedy also stressed the sophistication of the search effort.

“The deep tow on board the vessel is called ‘Dragon’. It’s got three forms of sensors on board. The way I like to make an analogy, it’s got ears, it can listen, that’s the acoustic sensors on board; it’s got eyes, that’s the cameras; and it’s got a nose, it’s got a sniffer, it can sniff jet fuel. The acid test: people say, will you find it? The answer is: if it’s in the area we’re searching, we will find it.”

GRAPHIC: MH370 timeline

It was derring-do, Boy’s Own stuff, just the message the ATSB spin doctors wanted to get out there to suggest Australian taxpayers’ money was in the best hands for the search for the aircraft wreckage and its precious black box flight data and cockpit voice recorders.
That’s why when Reuters last week reported that the ATSB’s pin-up boy Kennedy had told the newsagency he now thought the whole premise of the $180 million search had been wrong from the start, the story went around the world, and all hell broke loose. The way Reuters reported it, Kennedy had decided that the ATSB had erred in determining the search area based on its “ghost plane” type scenario in which the aircraft spirals down fairly quickly after running out of fuel, with unconscious or dead pilots disabled by oxygen deprivation.

Rather, Kennedy said he now believed the “rogue pilot” theory, in which a fully conscious pilot glided the aircraft down to the sea, was probably right after all.

“If it’s not there, it means it’s somewhere else,” Kennedy told Reuters. “If it was manned it could glide for a long way. You could glide it for further than our search area is, so I believe the logical conclusion will be, well, maybe that is the other scenario.”

Reuters wrote this meant Kennedy thought his searchers “have been scouring the wrong patch of ocean for two years”.

As a case of biting the hand that feeds, it doesn’t get better than this.

For about 18 months the ATSB has fought a running battle against Australian airline pilot Byron Bailey and other pilots and aviation experts who have promoted the theory that MH370 captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah hijacked his own aircraft and flew it right to the end in a deliberate effort to disappear the plane.

The ATSB has consistently described the controlled glide scenario as “very unlikely” and stuck to its preferred “unresponsive crew/hypoxia” type of end-of-flight model, in which some unforeseen event such as loss of oxygen through decompression leaves the pilots dead at the controls and the aircraft running on autopilot until fuel exhaustion.

The ATSB and former transport minister Warren Truss repeatedly rubbished Bailey, who wrote about MH370 first in The Daily Telegraph and then The Australian. So now the ATSB’s $180m action man, Kennedy, seemed to be siding with its arch-enemy, Bailey, in supporting the rogue pilot end of flight theory.

Fugro went into full PR damage control mode to try to mitigate the distinct impression that Kennedy had implied that the people running the ATSB — Fugro’s lucrative client — were idiots.

“Fugro wishes to make it very clear that we believe the search area to have been well defined based on all of the available scientific data. In short, we have been thoroughly looking in the most probable place — and that is the right place to search,” Fugro said in a statement. The statement did not, however, claim Reuters actually misquoted Kennedy.

But that was to be only the start of the ATSB’s credibility problems, and Bailey’s triumph, in recent days. Bailey, who consistently describes himself not as a journalist but a humble fly boy, flies corporate jets and before that made his living captaining aircraft such as the 777. He therefore knows a bit about practical aviation and broke one of the biggest scoops in the MH370 saga.

Writing in The Weekend Australian in January, Bailey said he had been told relatively early on by an Australian government source that “the FBI had recovered from Zaharie’s home computer deleted information showing flight plan waypoints”.

“Here, I assumed, was the smoking gun. To fly to the southern Indian Ocean, which has no airway leading from north of Sumatra to the south, the pilot would need to define flight plan waypoints via latitude and longitude for insertion in the flight management computer.

“When nothing about this emerged from ATSB I rang my source. He confirmed what he had told me and left me with the impression that the FBI were of the opinion that Zaharie was responsible for the crash.”

The significance of Bailey’s claim was huge. It suggested the FBI had secretly found Zaharie planned, then rehearsed on his home computer flight simulator, a specific and complex flight to what is absolutely the middle of nowhere in the southern Indian Ocean.

When The Weekend Australian asked the ATSB at that time in January if this sensational and crucial claim was correct, ATSB spokesman Daniel O’Malley dodged the question.

“The ATSB cannot comment on the accuracy of an alleged conversation … the ATSB is not responsible for the investigation of the accident; that … belongs to the Malaysian government,” O’Malley said in an email dated January 8.

Last week the ATSB’s efforts to marginalise Bailey, and steer around his claim that the FBI had found the critical flight simulator data and Australian investigators knew about it, were blown out of the water.

New York magazine revealed it had obtained a secret Malaysian police report on the findings of the FBI analysis of the hard disk drives on Zaharie’s flight simulation computer, which showed waypoints for a simulated flight that was eerily similar to the zigzag route MH370 actually took on March 8, 2014, when it reversed course on a scheduled flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing.

The simulated flight, conducted only a month before MH370’s disappearance, like the actual flight deviated west back over Malaysia, over the Andaman Sea, then took a sharp turn south before ending in the southern Indian Ocean.

New York quoted one excerpt from the report that showed investigators regarded the find as significant: “Based on the Forensics Analysis conducted on the 5 HDDs obtained from the Flight Simulator from MH370 Pilot’s house, we found a flight path, that lead (sic) to the Southern Indian Ocean, among the numerous other flight paths charted on the Flight Simulator.”

Between Kennedy’s suggestion that the pilot hijack theory was right, and the confirmation of the FBI discovery of the simulated flight, Bailey claimed he had been vindicated and that the ATSB and Truss had been hiding the truth for two years while sledging him.

“How is it that a taxpayer-funded government department can be so devious?” Bailey asked in The Australian this week. During the past week Bailey has been one of the most sought-after talents on television and radio.

Stung by all this, the ATSB renewed its fierce personal attack on Bailey in a statement on its website this week, saying it was concerned about “the intense personal impact that claims such as Mr Bailey’s has on those who are suf­fering as a result of this tragedy”.

But, interestingly, the ATSB for the first time tacitly admitted the story about the FBI findings was true, though it downplayed its significance, saying: “The simulator information shows only the possibility of planning. It does not reveal what happened on the night of its disappearance nor where the aircraft is located.”

While the ATSB media unit was keen to disseminate this “correcting the record” bulletin, its spokesman Tim Dawson failed to answer questions from Inquirer put to the organisation this week.

The man who replaced Truss as transport minister, Darren Chester, this week refused a call from Labor’s transport spokesman Anthony Albanese to come clean on what the Australian government really knew about the evidence indicating that Zaharie hijacked his own aircraft, as did Malcolm Turnbull, with both men saying this was up to Malaysia. The 777 was Malaysian-registered, which under international law makes Malaysia the lead investigator.

A Malaysian government agency has produced reams of interim technical reports, but none that makes any definitive statement of what happened or, revealingly, any mention of the FBI report.

The question that just about everyone — from aviation experts and the families of the victims to millions of interested bystanders around the world gripped by the addictive mystery — wants the answer to is this: why have Australia and Malaysia tried to suppress this evidence all along?

Why do the two governments seem to have done their best to avoid providing credence to the scenario that increasingly is viewed by the majority of informed opinion as being by far the likeliest: that, for whatever reason, Zaharie planned and executed a mass murder-suicide?

Aviation experts such as John Cox, an American airline pilot turned air safety consultant who has worked on many major air crash investigations, says all the evidence has always pointed towards a deliberate act by the pilot. He says the FBI find on the flight simulation, while not conclusive, adds to that conclusion.

Radar contact was broken 39 minutes into the flight and the plane’s radar transponder turned off, the route appeared to be deliberately flown to try to confuse or evade Thai, Malaysian and Indonesian radar, and there is no evidence of mechanical failure or a fire since no distress called was received and the aircraft flew on apparently smoothly for many hours after the final turn. Hijack by a passenger does not work well as a scenario because there was no claim of responsibility.

Cox believes it is imperative the FBI report and any other related material be publicly released.

“I believe in transparency in investigations,” Cox tells Inquirer. “If there is evidence, then it should be shared when it is proven and verified.”

There are several reasons Malaysia would not want a conclusion that one of its nationals committed such a heinous crime. One is obvious: it’s not a good look good for the Malaysian government or its majority state-owned flag carrier.

There are precedents for governments to try to resist such findings. In 1999 EgyptAir Flight 990 went down over the Atlantic en route from the US to Cairo, killing 217 people. The US National Transportation Safety Board concluded that, after the captain left the cockpit, first officer Gameel al-Batouti pushed the stick all the way forward to nosedive the aircraft into the ocean, with the repeated incantation, “I rely on God” in Arabic.

The Egyptian Air Agency put the crash down to mechanical failure of the elevator control system, but the NTSB said that could not explain the crash.

It would be particularly embarrassing to the Malaysian government if Zaharie brought down MH370 as a political statement. Zaharie was a supporter and, it is thought, distant relative of Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim.

According to some reports, he attended a court hearing the day before the flight when Anwar’s acquittal on sodomy charges was overturned in what is widely seen as a politically inspired trial.

A second reason relates to compensation claims from the families of those who died — excluding Zaharie, 238 murder victims in such a scenario. While the position is not crystal clear, some informed observers say that if Zaharie were proved to have deliberately taken down MH370, it would nullify Malaysia Airlines’ insurance, and also expose the airline to a whole new and higher level of potential lawsuits based on criminal liability.

A spokeswoman for Malaysian Airlines says: “MAS has adequate insurance coverage in place to meet any legal liability that we may have in respect of those claiming as a consequence of the incident.” The spokeswoman describes allegations of pilot suicide as “unfounded and speculative”.

Australia is, at Malaysia’s request, leading the underwater search and is putting up $60m towards it, when only a handful of victims were Australian citizens.

As Frankfurt-based British aerospace engineer Richard Godfrey puts it to Inquirer, one would have thought the Australian government would feel obliged to reveal what inside knowledge it had about what happened to MH370, since that impinged on where to search.

“In the light of the fact that the Australian people and the taxpayer have spent so much on the search, I think they should get some value for their Australian dollars,” says Godfrey.

Godfrey is a member of an international association of scientists, aviation experts and engineers known as the Independent Group, which continues to review the scientific evidence surrounding MH370.

The fact the ATSB, Chester and Turnbull won’t say what they know, Godfrey suggests, “points to the Australian government not wanting to upset the Malaysian government”.

The timing of Kennedy’s comments and the FBI revelations comes at a crossroads in the MH370 saga. Late last week, Chester and his Malaysian and Chinese counterparts met for an MH370 summit in Malaysia, and confirmed the stance that the three governments have maintained for months: once the sweep of the current 120,000sq km search area is complete in coming months — and less than 10,000sq km remain now — the two Fugro ships and a Chinese vessel will pack up and head for home.

In his statement on the decision, Chester says: “In the absence of credible new evidence to assist in identifying the specific location of the aircraft, a further search is not currently viable.”

Critics including Bailey and Godfrey say there is plenty of credible evidence already in the ATSB’s hands to indicate alternative locations of where to search — not new, but suppressed or inconvenient.

The final route MH370 took on its long leg south is, experts including Godfrey who has worked on satellite tracking technology agree, quite well established along what is known as the “seventh arc” of automatic electronic “handshakes” or “pings” exchanged between transmitters in the aircraft’s engines and a satellite.

The issues are just where the aircraft ran out of fuel along that route, and whether it then went down in an uncontrolled fashion, or was glided much farther by Zaharie.

Even if the controlled glide scenario were adopted, the current search area would, in fact, be an early part of where to look, as Fugro eagerly but correctly pointed out in its statement following Kennedy’s bombshell remarks.

But it would dictate a search band that was three times wider and longer because Zaharie could have glided the aircraft up to 100 nautical miles off, or farther along, the seventh arc.

The ATSB and Godfrey say a glide is not indicated by the satellite data, which can track flight path and vertical movement. In this case, they say, they show a very sharp end descent — an uncontrolled crash.

“The satellite data shows a dive in excess of 15,000 feet per minute, but accelerating,” says Godfrey, who independently has reviewed the satellite tracking material.

However, Godfrey and his Independent Group colleagues believe it would be productive, once the search of the current target zone is complete, to start a new search farther north along the seventh arc.

That suggestion is based, Godfrey says, on the fact while the hourly satellite handshakes show a consistent final leg south, the gaps between the earlier pings mean investigators cannot tell when the pilot began that final leg.

The turn might have been later and farther northwest than assumed by the ATSB, meaning MH370 would have run out of fuel earlier and farther north along the seventh arc.

Coincidentally, this week a team of researchers in Italy published a paper in the journal of the European Geosciences Union using the location of confirmed debris from MH370 to determine where the airliner might have crashed.

It also suggests that could be farther north.

Combing the difficult and deep waters of the southern Indian Ocean is an expensive exercise. The mathematics are pretty straightforward: trebling the search area, for example, would treble the cost.

But as Cox and Godfrey point out, collectively the government agencies of the world have never given up on trying to find lost airliners, whatever the cost.

The broader negative implications for aviation, they say, are just too great if the reason an aircraft goes down is not finally determined.

“The public will no longer enjoy flying, and the aviation industry will dive,” Godfrey warns.
“It’s important to find out: is Boeing at fault? It’s important to find out if this was a suicide pilot again.”

A wise, somewhat eccentric man who avidly follows all the latest developments & shenanigans coming out of the ATSB led MH370 SIO deep sea search, disagrees with my (& many others) premise that after the latest leaked FBI files and subsequent revelations/implications, that now should be the time to call for at least a Senate Inquiry into this whole stinking mess. Rather this gentleman believes we should continue to exhaust all avenues, follow up all leads, go back and review all the facts to narrow down the highest probable area to find MH370 and continue the search until the main wreckage of MH370 is found.

On a personal level I totally agree with him and in an ideal, totally transparent and honest world there would for be no need for a consensus, we would continue the search indefinitely until MH370, the black boxes and the dark secrets within were all revealed.

Unfortunately however we do not live in an ideal world that is devoid of geopolitics and the self-interests, secret agreements of individual nations that are signatories to United Nations ICAO convention. Nowhere is this argy, bargy world of geopolitics more prevalent than with the tragic mystery of MH370.

IMO the leaked FBI Captain Z files revelation is just more of the same tactics of MH370 lies, deception, disinformation and distraction. I am also very suspect on the 'suspension' of the search statement that came out of the tri-partite meeting. Although this is a good PR exercise for the tri-parties, IMO it is also a very clever way, through the international (ICAO & IMO) conventions, to keep control of both the narrative and future search attempts (private and/or other directly interested parties/governments) anywhere near the 7th arc or indeed the SIO.

Therefore I would argue that the inevitable Australian inquisition (Parliamentary, Judicial or RC) should not be delayed while the bureaucratic powers to be obfuscate, procrastinate and attack anyone who dares to question the 'agreed' MH370 script. No the time is now. 

Finally for the sake of debate and to perhaps reinforce my call for an MH370 inquiry, here is a couple of excellent quoted comments from the Higgins article - i.e. food for thought:

Dean

6 hours ago


I cannot understand why the Australian media has been so complicit in this outrage against the victims, their families and the Australian taxpayer. What is now established as certain fact is that the ATSB has had in their possession for a very long time facts that completely undermine the basis for their search area. No coherent explanation has ever been given why this information was ignored and actively suppressed. Explanations that have been given were essentially false denials embroidered with ad hominem slurs against anybody who dared to question their secretive judgment. The only satisfactory outcome now possible, for the peace of mind of the Australian taxpayers at least, is the removal of very large chunks of the ATSB management, if not the closure of the entire department and establishment of a new body with very different standards and responsibilities, and most importantly new personnel not connected with this investigation.

---

Andrew

1 hour ago


It looks like the ATSB came up with a viable theory and followed the leads.  The problem arises when exculpatory evidence began to seriously test their theory - but they'd become too invested in the original hypothesis.  Too many senior people backing a theory - and backed themselves into a corner.  Rather than consider the alternate they attacked those advocating the alternate.  This (exculpatory evidence changing the course of an investigation) frequently happens in criminal investigation - but the ATSB are not criminal investigators.  You'll note that the very interesting piece of evidence - to wit- the flight path on the simulator was discovered by the FBI (criminal investigators) while the ATSB and others are focusing on the physical evidence - satellite data - drift analysis etc.  Essentially they need to seriously consider this as a  murder investigation - stop looking at the metaphorical gun (the aircraft) and start looking more closely at the person who pulled the trigger.  Whatever happened - this dismissal of viable alternate theories - especially where there is evidence to support those alternates - is very poor investigative form.

Richard
1 hour ago

I think the evidence that it was a sham is very convincing, which leaves the question of why, and what does the Australian government know that it refuses to disclose?
At the end of the day an awful ot of lives were lost and many people have suffered terribly, some will continue to suffer for decades, and inconvenient truths should not remain hidden.

---

Botswana O'Hooligan

17 minutes ago

Simple logic would dictate the maximum size of the area where the wreckage should be so one takes the maximum altitude the aeroplane may have been at and where they thought it would run out of fuel, draw a circle based the best lift/drag ratio, add in a projected wind effect, and you come up with a circle of about 240,000 square kilometres in area, maybe a bit more, maybe a bit less, and that's the area to be searched. In case the ATSB theory is correct and the aeroplane went straight in, you start either a creeping line ahead search or an expanding square search from the most likely spot where the final glide started. Anybody with SAR experience can figure that out and one suspects that the ATSB know it too unless they are incompetent, but why didn't they use it?

 



MTF...P2

[Peetwo]

Why Australia needs an MH370 inquiry    

"..Yes I am starting to think this whole stinking cesspool of lies & deceit definitely needs to go before at least a Senate Inquiry, I can think of a dozen or more very concerned & intelligent international MH370 followers who would be more than happy to make submissions and maybe even appear to give evidence to such an Inquiry.."

Dean

6 hours ago


I cannot understand why the Australian media has been so complicit in this outrage against the victims, their families and the Australian taxpayer. What is now established as certain fact is that the ATSB has had in their possession for a very long time facts that completely undermine the basis for their search area. No coherent explanation has ever been given why this information was ignored and actively suppressed. Explanations that have been given were essentially false denials embroidered with ad hominem slurs against anybody who dared to question their secretive judgment. The only satisfactory outcome now possible, for the peace of mind of the Australian taxpayers at least, is the removal of very large chunks of the ATSB management, if not the closure of the entire department and establishment of a new body with very different standards and responsibilities, and most importantly new personnel not connected with this investigation.

---

Andrew

1 hour ago


It looks like the ATSB came up with a viable theory and followed the leads.  The problem arises when exculpatory evidence began to seriously test their theory - but they'd become too invested in the original hypothesis.  Too many senior people backing a theory - and backed themselves into a corner.  Rather than consider the alternate they attacked those advocating the alternate.  This (exculpatory evidence changing the course of an investigation) frequently happens in criminal investigation - but the ATSB are not criminal investigators.  You'll note that the very interesting piece of evidence - to wit- the flight path on the simulator was discovered by the FBI (criminal investigators) while the ATSB and others are focusing on the physical evidence - satellite data - drift analysis etc.  Essentially they need to seriously consider this as a  murder investigation - stop looking at the metaphorical gun (the aircraft) and start looking more closely at the person who pulled the trigger.  Whatever happened - this dismissal of viable alternate theories - especially where there is evidence to support those alternates - is very poor investigative form.

Richard
1 hour ago

I think the evidence that it was a sham is very convincing, which leaves the question of why, and what does the Australian government know that it refuses to disclose?
At the end of the day an awful ot of lives were lost and many people have suffered terribly, some will continue to suffer for decades, and inconvenient truths should not remain hidden.

---

Botswana O'Hooligan

17 minutes ago

Simple logic would dictate the maximum size of the area where the wreckage should be so one takes the maximum altitude the aeroplane may have been at and where they thought it would run out of fuel, draw a circle based the best lift/drag ratio, add in a projected wind effect, and you come up with a circle of about 240,000 square kilometres in area, maybe a bit more, maybe a bit less, and that's the area to be searched. In case the ATSB theory is correct and the aeroplane went straight in, you start either a creeping line ahead search or an expanding square search from the most likely spot where the final glide started. Anybody with SAR experience can figure that out and one suspects that the ATSB know it too unless they are incompetent, but why didn't they use it?

Part II - 60Min, Oz expose & AFAP 2 bobs worth.

MH370: 60 minutes & the Oz today - PartII

MH370 under control of pilot when it crashed: search co-ordinator

P2 - The OZ article/blog above has had more than than 100 comments so far, in amongst the many less informed comments I found this excellent post from Alexander (Sandy) with yet another PAIN plug (CF is in the mail Sandy ) :  

Alexander
19 hours ago

As many of us from the aviation industry have been saying for a number of years our 'independent' aviation oversight bodies leave much to be desired. It is truly disgraceful that the facts have been obscured for reasons we can only guess at. Perhaps questions of insurance liability, follow the money type concerns. Perhaps deference to the Malaysian's state owned airline and its reputation. Overtones of Malaysian politics may be involved.
Evidence appears to point to controlled flight, certainly from what we know this seems to be a more plausible scenario.

What's known of the flight path never looked like a random, out of control meandering because auto pilots don't meander. But what do I know? Having had a long career in General Aviation, I do know that the independent Commonwealth corporations, the Civil Aviation Safety Authority, the Australian Transport Safety Bureau and Air Services Australia have wasted millions of industry and taxpayer moneys in more ways than one. They are failed models of governance.

CASA has half killed General Aviation with an unworkable and ever changing rules, criminal and strict liability provisions plus huge fees for permissions. ASA huge expense and riddled with union controlled procedures which are dangerously behind the times.

Plenty of instances where good luck has narrowly averted tragic outcomes, Qantas and Virgin landing in fog at Mildura with little more than fumes in the tanks. Qantas Boeing south of Canberra below lowest safe altitude. Plenty more search the PAIN website.

Then the one directly involved spending umpteen millions in the search: ATSB, well used to covering and putting spin on issues that might point to the fallibility of CASA or ASA, must be greatly embarrassed by this revelation of material evidence in the MH 370 search which puts a big question mark over where the search has been conducted.

Couldn't have put it better myself Sandy...

Quote from the above Ross Coulthart article:

..But as recently as Friday ATSB commissioner Greg Hood reiterated the view of the search team that satellite data from the Boeing 777 jet suggested it was plunging at almost 400km/h just before it crashed into the sea with 239 passengers and crew...

And quote from Greg Hood West Oz/Airline Rating/Yahoo7 article last Friday:

..Australia’s crash investigator has revealed that data indicates MH370 could have been plunging at almost 400km/h just before it smashed into the sea with 239 passengers and crew.

In his first interview as chief commissioner of the Australian Transport Safety Bureau, Greg Hood told The West Australian the automated satellite link with the Boeing 777 showed its descent increased dramatically from about 1200m a minute to up to 6700m a minute... 

...After reviewing all the available DSTG/ATSB information off the ATSB MH370 reports page - see HERE - nowhere is it stated that ROD and/or G/S (stated as 400km/h) was calculated off the aircraft transmitted satellite data. Which means this is either new information or information that the ATSB, SSWG and the Annex 13 JIT investigators have previously not made public.  

  Also courtesy the Oz today the Feds weigh into the MH370 SIO search debate...

Don’t end MH370 search, says pilots’ chief
The Australian
12:00AM August 2, 2016
[img=0x0]http://pixel.tcog.cp1.news.com.au/track/component/author/0573acb566bb47c45e64e4c55a998aba/?esi=true&t_product=the-australian&t_template=s3/austemp-article_common/vertical/author/widget&td_bio=false[/img]
The largest union of pilots has called on the federal government to continue the search for Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 based on new evidence that a “rogue pilot” took it down, rather than give up in order to cut costs and avoid ­embarrassing Malaysia.

“The idea that they are not going to search for the airplane to finality is a serious precedent in all aviation,” David Booth, the president of the Australian Federation of Air Pilots, told The Australian.

“This is critical to me as an ­aviator … the airplane’s missing, we need to find the airplane.
“Presumably the government doesn’t want to put ­another $200 million into a search, as well as embarrass the Malaysians.”

The intervention of Captain Booth, a senior serving airline ­pilot, marks the first foray by the federation, which represents more than 4500 airline and commercial ­pilots, into the vexatious debate over the search for MH370 since stunning new evidence on the circumstances of its disappearance came to light.

It will add pressure on the government to reconsider the decision, made in conjunction with Malaysia and China, to abandon the search for the Boeing 777 once the present target area of 120,000sq km is covered in coming months.

More: Enough of the spurious theories

It will also add weight to the call from Labor’s Anthony Albanese for Transport Minister ­Darren Chester to come clean on what the government knows about new evidence that captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah hijacked his own aircraft on March 8, 2014, on a scheduled flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing and flew it and 238 passengers and crew to their deaths in the southern Indian Ocean. Late last month evidence suppressed by the Malaysian government and the Australian Transport Safety Bureau confirmed that, as first revealed by pilot Byron Bailey writing in The Weekend Australian in January, the FBI had recovered deleted data on Zaharie’s home flight simulator computer.

It found that less than a month before the flight Zaharie had plotted a course for a route similar to that taken by MH370, backtracking over the Malaysia-Thai border then over the Andaman Sea, ­before a sharp turn and a long track south to the southern Indian Ocean.

After first refusing to acknowledge it knew about the FBI findings, the ATSB last week downplayed their significance when revealed by New York magazine, saying the simulation did not necessarily show Zaharie had planned such a flight.

But Captain Booth said such a flight path, zigzagging and ending in the middle of a remote part of ocean, could only be a suicide route. “What’s a pilot doing that for, just for fun?” he asked.

He said the pilots’ federation had decided to take a stand after new claims at the weekend that analysis of a wing control surface, known as a flaperon, found on the French Indian Ocean territory of Reunion, and confirmed to be part of MH370, showed it had been in a lowered position.

Aviation analysts have said if the flap were lowered, which can be done only by human action in the cockpit and would normally happen when preparing to land, it would be concrete evidence the aircraft had been piloted right to the end in a controlled ditch.

The ATSB has rejected the controlled ditch or glide theory as “very unlikely”, saying its analysis of satellite tracking data suggests MH370 went down steeply after running out of fuel, and the government agency has consistently tried to avoid giving credence to the “rogue pilot” theory as a whole.

Rather, the ATSB has adopted an end-of-flight type of scenario of “unresponsive crew/hypoxia”, consistent with the pilots being unconscious or dead due to ­decompression and loss of oxygen — an option which means it does not have to say Zaharie hijacked his own aircraft, which would ­disturb Malaysia.

That preferred scenario of the ATSB, which is organising the $180m search which involves $60m of Australian taxpayer money, has dictated a much narrower search area than if it had gone with the rogue pilot end-of-flight theory, since Zaharie could have glided the aircraft or flown it to a ditching under power for a much longer distance than if an unpiloted MH370 had crashed after fuel exhaustion.

Captain Booth said the new ­evidence supporting the controlled glide or powered ditching theory should propel the government to continue the search in an area consistent with that scenario.

“Obviously you can’t spend limitless amounts of money to that end, but where there are reasonable theories pointing to where the aircraft could be, they should be pursued,” Captain Booth said.

ATSB spokesman Tim Dawson and a spokeswoman for Mr Chester refused to answer questions from The Australian, ­including whether the government had information on whether the claimed findings about the ­flaperon being lowered were correct.

“There is an enormous amount of data which has been collected in the search for MH370 and the Australian government has ­already given an undertaking that it will be provided as open source information when possible,’’ Mr Chester said.

“I am confident in the ATSB’s expert analysis and remain hopeful the aircraft will be located in the 120,000sq km highest priority search area.”

OH Chester..Chester better hope your ventriloquist puppeteer comes up with some new lines ASAP - TICK TOCK indeed...


MTF...P2  

[Kharon]

From the sublime back to the ridiculous.

When 370 was reported missing and Australia went in to bat – I thought Bully.  AMSA and the Orion’s quickly on the job; amongst the worlds finest, in – out, get the job done, home in time for tea.  Then of course the ‘thick plottened’ and it became a complex matter, accompanied by the usual media confusion and speculation; it happens, such is life.  No matter a thousand theories were generated, gods alone know how many ‘expert’ talking heads were paid for their dubious services and the party rolled on, and on, and on.  All was ‘routine’ until Dolan pushed his way to the front of the clamour.  This will end in tears, for certain sure, thought I; tears of operational anguish, of practical incompetence and of political fallout flavour.

How could anyone put Dolan ‘in charge’?  The wretched man was up to his fetlocks in the Pel-Air debacle, subject of Senate censure and despised by the aviation community as the man who was too shiftless to raise a tiny ‘black-box’ from less than ten fathoms, in a known (buoyed) location, from clear, sheltered water. A dishonourable discharge should have been issued, not an all expenses paid trip to KL.  Even some of the more ambivalent PAIN associates raised an eyebrow or two when Dolan stepped up to the crease – as opening batsman.  To paraphrase the BRB “WTD is the government thinking, this cannot possibly end well”.  Not unless a willing scapegoat was required; one to run with hares and hunt with the hounds. If that was the prime objective then indeed the government did select the right man, with a proven track record of pliant ‘cooperation’.  

It seems all the chickens have come home to roost; what with Hoody telling the world that there is ‘reliable’ data and his #1 go-to man appearing on ‘telly’ acknowledging that the much touted ATSB ‘theory’ could possibly be wrong; so, what else can turn into government embarrassing worms? Well there’s Albo for starters – that’s right, he finally has done something for aviation – even if his motivation was a Wong way of scoring political points. It matters not: for points are points to Albo; hypocrisy is not a concept he grasps too well and he will push. Well within his rights to demand WTD results have been achieved, considering the money spent on what looks very much like a flawed, misdirected search – under his appointed ‘guru’ of Air Transport Safety.  The irony will be lost on Albo as he gets his licks in.  At least now ‘matters aeronautical’ have become ‘political’.

Which leaves us where? A large incoming rotten egg for the government to deal with (tick) a political bun-fight (tick) the derision of every accident investigating authority (tick) the increased lack of faith in and belief of the ATSB as a viable, credible body (tick) a massive bill (tick) and no bloody aircraft (tick).  There are a few more boxes there which could be ticked; but what the hell.  I bet old Vlad is laughing his socks off while stroking his still unruffled ‘shirt front’ eh? Tony ?.

Aye well, at least for the next little while we can still drink the water in our little third world backwater; meanwhile, the Malaysian mission dances it’s way out of town, drinking the bubbly we, the tax payers, provided.  Terrific.  We can blow another small fortune on yet another inquiry into a predetermined outcome.  Great job; Oh well done Australia and thank you Beaker.

I knew I should have turned left at Albuquerque; heigh ho.

Toot toot.

[Peetwo]

MH370 - Chester says: "Nothing to see here, move along!"

Via NewsCorp:

No inquiry needed into MH370 search, says Minister responsible Darren Chester
Robyn Ironside News Corp Australia Network

EXCLUSIVE

THERE is unlikely to be any inquiry into the MH370 plane search when it is completed later this year, even if nothing is found.

Federal Transport and Infrastructure Minister Darren Chester said he had no intention of requesting an inquiry examining how the $180 million search was carried out — despite international criticism of the expertise and equipment of contracted company Fugro.


Australia’s Darren Chester shakes hands with his Malaysian and Chinese counterparts after announcing the suspension of the MH370 search when the current area is complete. Picture: AFP / Mohd RasfanSource:AFP

Mr Chester said he shared families’ desire for answers in relation to the baffling disappearance of the Malaysia Airlines’ flight and its 239 passengers and crew on March 8, 2014.

And he was confident the search had been “conducted with the highest standards of Australian Public Service governance and probity”.

“There has been full transparency throughout the search process,” Minister Chester said.

“In addition to the evidence provided by senior ATSB staff responsible for the search at regular Senate Committee hearings, there have been regular audits conducted by independent auditors throughout the course of the program.”


The ATSB has provided regular updates on the MH370 search and debris such as this wing flap found in Tanzania. Picture: AFP / ATSBSource:AFP

Among the search critics have been former French Naval Officer Paul-Henry Nargeolet who was hired to help find Air France flight 447 in the Atlantic Ocean.

He said Fugro did not have the experience for such a specialised search, and Australian taxpayers should be “mad” to see their money spent like that.

US firm Williamson and Associates also raised concerns 100 per cent sea floor coverage was not being achieved by Fugro’s sonar equipment. The company was among those that unsuccessfully bid to carry out the MH370 search.

Mr Chester said all the sonar data gathered in the course of the 120,000 square kilometre search would be publicly released by the Australian Transport Safety Bureau.


Search crews have endured horrific conditions and waves of up to 24-metres in the Southern Indian Ocean. Picture: ATSBSource:Supplied

A “comprehensive report” on all aspects of the search would also be made public when the operation ended in late December.

“This is in addition to the search area definition and debris analysis reports which have been released periodically throughout the search,” said Mr Chester.

ATSB Chief Commissioner Greg Hood said he was prepared to front a Senate Inquiry into the MH370 search, should one be held.

“We have nothing to hide and have kept families completely informed about every development, every step of the way,” said Commissioner Hood.

Last week, the ATSB revealed it was planning the next phase of the search based on revised drift modelling using replica flaperons in the Southern Indian Ocean.

It is hoped the modelling may provide the evidence needed to continue the search beyond the current priority zone.

Minister Chester said at this stage the plan was to suspend the search “pending any further credible evidence leading to the specific location of MH370”.

So Dazzling Dazza reckons he can circumvent an MH370 inquiry on his hearsay? Hmm...Hoody & co maybe telling Chester everything is above board but if Sterlo, Wacka & Zeno smell a rat, well I don't think they will be going off DDD's say so on whether to call an inquiry or not...

In the meantime for ease of reference for the good Senators, here is the latest from MH370 DOI archives, which includes a rapidly growing list of QON for the upcoming Senate Estimates in October...

Latest instalment to the DOI archives -

Courtesy Mike Chillit, who you will see has been very busy...   

The Drift Buoy Clock
Posted on August 25, 2016 by Mike Chillit — Leave a reply

I have endeavored to identify drifters that behaved in a manner similar to the debris we now have in the hope of harnessing that information to more precisely determine where the debris may have originated.

I have identified 17 drifters out of a total of 194 that washed up on land somewhere in the south Indian Ocean basin. That is about all we know about MH370 debris at this point: it went in the water on March 7, 2014 and washed up thousands of kilometers to the west about 15 months later. None of those dates are very precise because neither Malaysia nor Australia has made any effort at all to locate debris on beaches across the south Indian Ocean. We are fortunate; families are fortunate, that people like Blaine Gibson took it upon themselves to search a few beaches within their private means, and found important parts of the aircraft.

So, we know when that debris went into the water, but we don’t know exactly where it washed up on various islands or shores that have so far been scoured (a small percentage of those that need to be examined).

The flaperon that washed up on Reunion Island is probably the best estimate of the time required to get there from wherever it originated. We know the flaperon was physically retrieved and taken into custody on July 29, 2015. There were suggestions at the time that it had been tossing in the surf as far back as late May, but we have no confirmation of that. The rocky, steep shores of Reunion Island certainly make it credible to believe the flaperon predated the July 29 date, but by how much we can only guess. I typically place it there a month before it was taken into custody, June 2015. We are not doing precision work, we are trying to come up with reasonable estimates to enhance our search for the plane.

Using June 2015 means I believe it took the flaperon about 15 months to make the journey from wherever it started (March 2014 to June 2015). And we have both anecdotal and hard evidence of a small pleasure boat being blown from the Exmouth area to the Comoros Island area in 13 months shortly before that. A possible difference is that the boat may have had more exposure to wind than the flaperon. We just don’t know.

France concluded the flaperon drifted partially above the water line due to peculiarities with its specific gravity and buoyancy. Given that information, it is entirely plausible that the flaperon may have indeed been in the surf up to 3 months longer, but I will still use 15 months for my estimate to begin examining the issue.

So the next question that comes up, since we have drifter data that allows us to be fairly specific about drift times during the same time period is: just how long does it take to drift from various places in the east Indian Ocean to reach Reunion Island?

This answer is not as difficult as it may seem. I started with 1,903 NOAA drifters deployed all over the south Indian Ocean between 1979 and this past March. There were well over half a million time, date, and location records associated with those drifters, allowing me to get a robust estimate of drift time.

There is more than one way to estimate drift time, by the way. NOAA’s interpolated data sets include an estimate of drift calculated in centimeters per second, cm/s. That is a useful metric, but also misleading if not used carefully. For example, using that NOAA drift metric results in a drift estimate of 32 km per day, or more, on average. That would be fine if that was what we were interested in knowing. But that isn’t what we need. That metric includes a lot of meandering travel that does not in any way help us solve something like the flaperon drift problem. We want to know the time it takes to get from point A to point B.

A better metric for this particular inquiry is, How far did the buoy drift per day relative to its final destination? When we approach it that way, we need the starting and ending GPS for each drifter, and the number of days in the interval. That turns out to be 12 km per day for this batch of 1,903 buoys. However, within the mix is a range of between less than one km per day to more than 122 km per day. So, I elected to use the median value, which is 8 km per day, 240 km per month. Hand grenades and horseshoes perhaps, but a start.

With that information, I created range rings around Reunion Island. Each ring was 720 km from the next, which is the distance it appears drift will move toward its final destination every 3 months. The following chart shows how that looks.



Drifter #60658110 traveled 4,906 km. If it had ended up at Reunion Island instead, it would have traveled a straight-line distance of 4,451 km. It is important to know that the flaperon appears to have been an “outlier”. That is, only one of the drifters NOAA has released since early 2014 have even come close to Reunion Island, and it was clearly an outlier (drifter #133652). Storms and passing vessels can make strange things happen.
Referring to the chart above again, the fifth ring out approaches Cocos Islands, but still ~4 months away. The difference for that drifter was Cyclone Jack right out of the gate.

We don’t have to focus on the Cocos Island area to use the chart. The same 5th ring intersects the Seventh Arc in the heart of the search area. But what I have to do to the chart yet is add a variable scale. Nothing drifts to Reunion Island from the search area. But some of it drifts north toward Java Island and then west. It takes a long longer.

While I have been unable to find anything relevant to MH370 that drifts from the Perth Australia area to the Mascarene Island area (much less 20+ drifters or pieces of aircraft debris), this is hardly an exact science. It is a crude tool to be sure, and we have to try to use it within its limitations.

I will continue to work on this, but it helps confirm my suspicions that a far more likely place to refocus the search is a bit northeast of Cocos Islands. It isn’t just the debris we have now found that tells us that. It is also the debris that has never appeared anywhere else. Had it come down east of Cocos Island, parts of it would have certainly washed up on that Island, and probably on northwestern Australian beaches, long before now.

Next from over on the AA&MH370 thread we have Ventus putting some serious QON for Senator NX & Co to put to Hoody & Foley at next Estimates...

A few thoughts, from an old head, for Nick-Z and associates.

The Drifteron Project obviously did not just magically "pop-up" the other day.

It had to have been conceived, reviewed, approved, and funded.
All of which takes time, lots of time.
It must have had a significant "gestation period", many months, perhaps well more than twelve of them.

The initial concept proposal was germinated in someone's head.
Whose I wonder, where and when ?
Was he or she in the ATSB, DSTG, CSIRO, ANU, Geo Sciences Aus, or elsewhere ?

Who reviewed the proposal for technical merit and / or feasibility ?

Who approved the project, where and when ?

Who funded the project ?   Defence, ATSB, AMSA, CSIRO, other ?
Which "vote" did it come out of, under Finance Reg (forty something - it has been so long, was it 42) ?

Then the drifterons had to be actually designed and constructed.

Who actually designed them, where and when ?
What were the design requirements and performance parameters ?
What were the acceptance standards ?
Who determined them ?

Who actually built them, where and when ?
Who inspected, tested, and accepted them ?

When were they actually delivered to ATSB Stores, and by whom ?

What is the intended deployment time frame, location(s) and ongoing operational concept ?

How will they be deployed, by ship or by air-drop ? (Presumably by ship)

Who will deploy the Drifterons and mated GDB's ?  
Defence ?  Navy or RAAF ?
CSIRO ?  Their own vessel, or by a "dedicated contractor", or by multiple "vessels of opportunity" ?
ATSB ? (as per CSIRO).
Other ?

Who will track, and recover, and redeploy, both the GDB's and Drifterons ?

Who will get the tracking data, and what will they do with it ?
Will the data be made public in real time ?
Will it be "free to cyberspace" ?

I "really" do want to know.

     
MTF..P2  

[Gobbledock]

A great selection of questions by Ventus. Sadly the ATsB and Murky, well practised in obsfucation and herring throwing, would 'take those questions on notice' and make sure they are not fully answered for 2 years.

Just a tad different to when CAsA audits you and gives you 30 days to reply otherwise they will shut you down.....different rules for some.

[Peetwo]

From the sublime back to the ridiculous.

When 370 was reported missing and Australia went in to bat – I thought Bully.  AMSA and the Orion’s quickly on the job; amongst the worlds finest, in – out, get the job done, home in time for tea.  Then of course the ‘thick plottened’ and it became a complex matter, accompanied by the usual media confusion and speculation; it happens, such is life.  No matter a thousand theories were generated, gods alone know how many ‘expert’ talking heads were paid for their dubious services and the party rolled on, and on, and on.  All was ‘routine’ until Dolan pushed his way to the front of the clamour.  This will end in tears, for certain sure, thought I; tears of operational anguish, of practical incompetence and of political fallout flavour.

How could anyone put Dolan ‘in charge’?  The wretched man was up to his fetlocks in the Pel-Air debacle, subject of Senate censure and despised by the aviation community as the man who was too shiftless to raise a tiny ‘black-box’ from less than ten fathoms, in a known (buoyed) location, from clear, sheltered water. A dishonourable discharge should have been issued, not an all expenses paid trip to KL.  Even some of the more ambivalent PAIN associates raised an eyebrow or two when Dolan stepped up to the crease – as opening batsman.  To paraphrase the BRB “WTD is the government thinking, this cannot possibly end well”.  Not unless a willing scapegoat was required; one to run with hares and hunt with the hounds. If that was the prime objective then indeed the government did select the right man, with a proven track record of pliant ‘cooperation’.  

It seems all the chickens have come home to roost; what with Hoody telling the world that there is ‘reliable’ data and his #1 go-to man appearing on ‘telly’ acknowledging that the much touted ATSB ‘theory’ could possibly be wrong; so, what else can turn into government embarrassing worms? Well there’s Albo for starters – that’s right, he finally has done something for aviation – even if his motivation was a Wong way of scoring political points. It matters not: for points are points to Albo; hypocrisy is not a concept he grasps too well and he will push. Well within his rights to demand WTD results have been achieved, considering the money spent on what looks very much like a flawed, misdirected search – under his appointed ‘guru’ of Air Transport Safety.  The irony will be lost on Albo as he gets his licks in.  At least now ‘matters aeronautical’ have become ‘political’.

Which leaves us where? A large incoming rotten egg for the government to deal with (tick) a political bun-fight (tick) the derision of every accident investigating authority (tick) the increased lack of faith in and belief of the ATSB as a viable, credible body (tick) a massive bill (tick) and no bloody aircraft (tick).  There are a few more boxes there which could be ticked; but what the hell.  I bet old Vlad is laughing his socks off while stroking his still unruffled ‘shirt front’ eh? Tony ?.

Aye well, at least for the next little while we can still drink the water in our little third world backwater; meanwhile, the Malaysian mission dances it’s way out of town, drinking the bubbly we, the tax payers, provided.  Terrific.  We can blow another small fortune on yet another inquiry into a predetermined outcome.  Great job; Oh well done Australia and thank you Beaker.

I knew I should have turned left at Albuquerque; heigh ho.

Toot toot.

Yet more instalments to the DOI archives -

Ventus nails it -

..So, I think that what they need to do, starting as soon as possible (do not wait until March 2017), is this:-

1. Since we only have 5 drifterons (note to ATSB - you really do need a couple of dozen at least) seed them as 5 sets of "mated pairs", i.e. (a drifteron and a Global Drifter Buoy) together, as stated above, on the arc, at intervals of 5 degrees of latitude, ie, at 20, 25, 30, 35 and 40 degrees south, and track them for a month.
2. During the month, the drifteron will obviously diverge from it's "spouse" GDB.
3. At the end of 30 days, "Let the drifteron drift", and go and grab it's spouse GDB, and bring it back to it's mated drifteron, and drop it in beside it again.
4. Repeat the process every month.
5. Over "x" months, we will get an actual drift track for each of the drifterons themselves, plus, hopefully, they will also be able to build up a reasonable idea of how to calibrate the existing database of GDB's.

That will give us (assuming they start in October 2016), 5 months of data to work with up to March 2017.

By that stage, the drift models of GDB's should have been calibrated well enough to have a pretty good idea of where the "actual flaperon" entered the water.

Therefore, in March 2017, drop all 5 pairs in a 5 star pattern centered on that point, with a radius of 60 nautical miles, and "observe".

Okay now read the following courtesy of the Oz yesterday and again especially the part in bold... :

Replicas of debris to track MH370


Replicas of the MH370 flaperon that was found at Reunion Island in the Indian Ocean.

• ..The search team has constructed several replica flaperons, fitted with transmitters, which will be set adrift alongside free-floating buoys. Scientists will plot courses and speed of both.The first of these tests will be carried out off Tasmania. CSIRO scientists will then add to the new information to known drift patterns of the buoys.They believe that will give a better idea of where the real ­flaperon began its journey in the seconds after MH370 hit the water...

From Ken Staubin who has painstakingly compiled a reverse drift model for each individual piece of - suspected &/or confirmed - MH370 debris found so far: The Location of MH370 - A Reverse Drift Study Based On Debris Found

Next from Mike Chillit:

Where SIO Drift REALLY Goes

Posted on August 28, 2016 by Mike Chillit — Leave a reply

Meanwhile in our little patch? - Chillit perfectly sums up the current embarrassing status quo..

"..There have also been a handful of drift studies out of Australia’s CSIRO, ATSB, and one of its minor colleges in the Perth Area. I consider each of the Australian studies shameful examples of in-house bias. They all insist the current search is in the “right” place. Not one of them is credible. They were undertaken for the sole purpose of justifying Australia’s bull-headed determination to search a part of the ocean the plane could not possibly be. No one is going to feel sorry for Australia’s insistence on going it alone. It should be incredibly embarrassed and never allowed to forget the damage it has done to genuine interests in finding the plane in a timely manner..."

   
Isn't it amazing how much one bald headed, beard on/beard off Muppet has tarnished our international standing as a fellow signatory state to ICAO...

TICK...TOCK Dazzling Dazza, TICK...TOCK indeed!


MTF...P2

Ps In the lead up to Supp Estimates slated for October I was perusing the Senate Orders page - see HERE - for the 2015 calendar year.  I then referenced the ATSB spreadsheet:

Australian Transport Safety Bureau: 2015 Calendar Year - Download

 
I then referred to any tender/expense related to the MH370 SIO search. For which there was three entries - Fugro Survey PTY LTD; Phoenix International Holdings Inc; and Minter Ellison (Law Firm). These three entities invoiced the ATSB in the year 2015 for a staggering combined total of $136,707,597 Australian dollars. I can just imagine Beakers eye balls bulging when all of those dollars were going in & out of the ATSB coffers...

[Kharon]

Run rabbit.

One could, I expect, if pushed, frame the current state of ‘matters aeronautical’ in diplomatic, politically correct double speak. One could even soft pedal the statements and dress them in motley. Or; you could simply tell it as it is.  It is fucked; well and truly rooted; you could say the same thing in anyone of a hundred different languages; for example :-

Foutre; Gefickt; scopata; Salta gamisou; выебанная;maris aljins; Fok jou!; Loop naai; Arraioa!;Carajo etc.

But, in the end (pun intended) it all amounts to the same, basic statement, made in the vernacular.  

P2 (legend) posted a great blog piece today – HERE – is a fair old read; but, a worthwhile one.  It points in only one direction; get us a DAS who has runs on the board, understands ‘the system’ and can actually put things to rights.  There is no way known industry is going to be ‘graped’ again; the last little episode has revealed all the deep seated resistance and reluctance to change. There is no intention, whatsoever, within CASA to part with their untrammelled power or overblown budgetary requirements.  

So they have to go – it is that simple; and it seems, from the P2 Blog piece that the industry, including the ‘heavy weights’ have had a gut full of this 30 year pantomime and game of charades.

Enough – Un duck it minister – or be forever tarred with the same brush.

Toot, bollocks, toot, bollocks, toot toot, toot.  Toot Bollocks, toot bollocks toot toot toot.  (Works fine with ‘Run Rabbit run, run, run. run).

MTF? - Betcha boots there is.

[Gobbledock]

The suggestion;

"get us a DAS who has runs on the board, understands ‘the system’ and can actually put things to rights".

Good in theory, but it is obviously not what 'they' want. The hiring of all these RAAF and test pilots is proof of that. The stonewalling is done at higher levels. If the government wanted to fix/change/repair CAsA it would have, could have and should have by now, well and truly. They've had 30 years to do so.

No, we are all being played boys, it's been that way for a long time now, and it's not going to change anytime soon. It's a game called 'aviation blackjack'. The Government is the 'house' and it holds all the cards. The game is rigged, it has been from day one. Sure they let the IOS win a hand every now and then, but that's only perfunctory. It's a courtesy herring just to keep you off their scent. The house always wins. I repeat, always wins..

Now Mr Ferryman, if you have a couple of spare dollars may I suggest you place it all on number 666.....and let's play. Come in spinner.....

[Kharon]

OK. Rolls up sleeves – bugger dancing around the Daisy’s.

Over it. Gee Whiz – GD: we always have; and, hopefully will always, will get the ‘punters’ home, in one piece.  Quite often – on time – occasionally, even ‘legal’ (if such a masterpiece is possible).  We do it, day in, day out; around the clock, without any assistance from the big ‘R’ regulator. In fact, we do it despite the ‘regulator’. Quite often in breach of the regulators ‘safety’ rules.

There’s hardly one of us who is ‘without sin’.  It is a fact of life that no matter how hard you try – there is always a ‘breach’ which can, and will, if it pleases, be translated into a heinous crime of strict liability, criminal negligence.  A knot over the crosswind limit on finals; Go around: no?  Well, your career can, if it pleases, hang on such a slim margin; strict liability and all.  A single, 0.1 hour in a log book (instrument) error can, will; and has been the basis for a ‘fraud’ charge; vigorously prosecuted. Then, after that it can and does get ‘legally’ interesting, if you can pay the freight.

If, and it often does, please the ‘official’ to tell you that “there is a lot of shit heading your way” as an opening statement to a routine audit; or, that the FAA version (verbatim) of how to teach Vmca recovery is a recipe for a death dive ‘roll over’; then, no kidding. ‘you have problems’ – big ones..  But wait: there’s more – only a stall recovery, with the SAS system ‘inop’ will satisfy the CASA requirement for a FO type rating, this, despite the manufactures written statement saying, categorically, ‘Not even  approach' to stall without SAS’. –This not withstanding CAO requirements , that ‘stall’ training and testing was not even required, for FO.  

Then, we come to the deceit and lies section.  Oh yes children, it exists.  For instance – Inutile Lad decides that, despite the sworn evidence of a half dozen, impeccable witnesses, – that you were ‘pissed’ on arrival for a ‘CASA supervised’ check flight.  Mind you; the facilities, for conducting an ‘on the spot’, on site, CASA approved DUI check, by CASA approved, independent, impartial people are blatantly ignored.  Then, many, many hours later, having established that the ‘suspect’ was miles from base; raise a complaint, eight hours after the ‘suspicion’.  This, despite having been happy in that the original supposition of ‘drunkenness’ was kosher, and then, allowed the ‘test’ and flight test (that’s airborne) to go ahead. All of this carried out under a totally illegal protocol – outside of the CASA approved CT system – with a ‘pilot’ supposedly half pissed, to be allowed to fly. This gets even better.  IL (to his 'mates'), then waits another six hours before reporting to ‘the manager’ and then, gets his new best ‘mate’ to sign a sworn statement. A statement to the effect that he too (the mate), witnessed all this; despite not being anywhere remotely near the airport, let alone ‘on-site’, during the hours in question, on the day.  (This is, BTW, fully supported by documents, freely and quickly  supplied, under the FoI Act).

The WTF shout gets better and bigger from there on.  That pilot/victim has now been unemployed and, essentially unemployable now for five years now, courtesy of Inutile Lad and ‘his’ boss.  Better than 15,000 multi command – under IFR – jet, turbine, piston, international, heavy and light; ATO, Chief pilot, operator, AOC holder (<5700 etc.) Why?

Well may you wonder.  But I’ll tell you anyway – 51 first time passes of an IR in a straight line, 130 base checks, 12 new type ratings, over 100 ‘route checks’; dozens of CT checks, including those done by CASA ‘experts’.  And yet one, just one, solitary FOI, now claiming to be ‘under orders’, decides, without any proof, whatsoever, that this experienced, good stick and rudder man, broadly experienced CP, top training, good check pilot, is suddenly, a drunken incompetent.  Go figure.

The rest is history. This is a short, cleaned up, version of the real underbelly: the reality of what, despite the twaddle, industry is daily staring down and very much a’feared of.   Yet IL, to this day prospers – WTF?

Aye well. One day, soon I hope, I will be released to tell the whole, no holds barred, of this sad, sorry tale.  But it is not my story to tell, not yet.  But soon Inutile Lad, soon.  You do have my solemn word on that.  Mike Smith will be the first to hear of it; that, you can take to the bank of your choice.  Sure, you can run, but you cannot hide – not forever.   Tick tock.

Selah.

[Gobbledock]

Of rolled up sleeves, embuggerance and free tickets on the Styx houseboat

Kharon, thank you for your honest and forthright post. Not an easy account to put to paper. 3 cheers to you good sir and may you, and the poor sod who received the described pineapple, go in peace.

Folks, Kharon's example is truly disturbing to say the least. However, and I'm sure he won't mind me adding, this is one of many many examples of CAsA shennanigans that most avid readers would believe almost impossible to have occurred. If you are one of those who thought that, then you better think again. This is a prime example of CAsA embuggerance. Thorny also has many a tale to be told. Just ask Stan, Quadrio, Butson, the sweet Karen Casey or the dignified Shane Urquhart and you will understand the machinations of the Big 'R' Recked'u'later.

A government sanctioned, disgustingly behaved department that has been gifted a 'get of jail free pass' to do "what it wants, to whom it wants, when it wants, as it wants". If ever a royal commission into malfeasance, bullying and misuse of power was ever to be launched then Fort Fumble is number one on the list. But there has been calls for years and each time those calls are shot down in flames. You're damn right the Government don't want the lid lifted on their public servants.

TICK TOCK Malcolm, Barnaby and the Selfie taking ponce.

[Kharon]

Like Topsy – it grew and grew.

P2 – “wonder what the total cost will end up being for the PelAir cover-up investigation” etc.

I wonder at the apathy of the tax payer and the incredible lack of press attention to this huge, waste of funds. A totally outrageous waste; a waste that need never have been; had the ATSB simply done their job properly.

There was an incident and ATSB attended, ATSB did the investigation, ATSB located the wreck, buoyed it and had the carcass ready to lift the short 10 fathoms to the surface and retrieve the ‘black-boxes’. Routine, straight forward and a necessary impost, acceptable to all. Then came the word to leave the aircraft ‘in-situ’, black-boxes and all.

Well, since then, that decision has cost not only credibility of the ATSB , exposed CASA faults and left a strong odour of incompetence and possibly corruption, but it has cost a small fortune to achieve.

Lets write off the cost of the original investigation – that’s a furry muff outlay. – we may also treat the cost of the initial report in the same manner. Then we need to examine the peripheral costs.  The CASA ‘parallel’ investigation was not strictly required – not until ATSB had drawn their conclusions, up front this was a ‘straight forward’ incident; or it would have been, had CASA not gotten their knackers in the blender with ‘soft’ audit, easy forgiveness of transgressions and a very suspect change of chief pilot.  So, the cost of the CASA arse covering must be added to the total and it is significant; the man hours alone expended in drafting the reports ‘attached’ to the investigation and the hours spent at ‘audit’ add up to an impressive total, this without the ‘associated’ additional costs of the exercise.

Next we must consider the cost of the Senate Committee (SSC) inquiry; I can’t imagine how much, in total, that event expended. In a good cause, absolutely necessary and completely ungrudged.  Non the less, it was a significant, but unnecessary spend; money saved if ATSB had simply done their work properly, first time about.  

The resulting ASRR could be added to the bill. It’s a reasonable addition, if there was no Senate inquiry, then the good Rev. Forsyth could have been at golf, untroubled. We must not forget to include the significant cost of the ‘administration’ required to support the ASRR.

Next item on the invoice – Canadian TSB report, another spin off cost stemming from the SSC inquiry; once again the total cost – all up, would be significant.

Item next: the PelAir report needs to be done for a second time.  So we can, safely, double the cost for the initial investigation; there now being two of them. Insult to injury, the $AU 500,000 and change cost for retrieval of the CVR.

There are clever folk who could forensically (for a fee) detail the total cost of this debacle. This completely unnecessary, embarrassing, expensive fiasco.  There are not too many would could estimate the cost in human terms; the cost of a government safety investigator and a safety watchdog acting in concert, attempting to brush an event under the mat, then trying to justify that action; then, most heinous of all, getting caught doing it.

I’ve no idea what the total fiscal cost of this shoddy, seedy little drama is.  I could not even begin to quantify the international humiliation or the suspicion surrounding the MH 370 search due to Australia’s tarnished reputation.  All I can say is that it is repugnant to any right minded aviation professional; it is disgusting that Dolan walks away without even a hint of apology and it is a national disgrace that ‘government’ allowed it all to happen, without censure, explanation or apology.

Toot toot.

[Peetwo]

Gold Senator Sterle, pure GOLD!  - The voice of a real man.

Slight thread drift but it is still relevant when contemplating the sheer, unadulterated, incredulity, that such tales of aberration invoke in a nanny state society that have vital industries over-regulated, sometimes to within an inch of extinction by an all encompassing, micro-managing bureaucracies.

So for the record here is Sterle's passionately delivered adjournment speech off Hansard:

Senator STERLE (Western Australia) (19:29): I only have 10 minutes, but I could go on all night about this incident. I saw on Twitter, probably three or four weeks ago, a picture of a truck jackknifed on a major highway in Sydney. The exact date was 5 February 2016. It was a semitrailer—so, Mr Acting Deputy President Gallacher, you know exactly what I am talking about—

Senator Nash: So do I.

Senator STERLE: And you, Senator Nash—fantastic. How many tonnes was it? Got ya! It was a 42½-tonne semitrailer—a bogie drive tri-axle trailer. I have great respect for Senator Nash because she understands the issue of road safety and the importance of our drivers being fully trained in handling these monsters running up and down our highways. I say 'monsters' with affection, because they are what I played with for many, many years of my life...

...Clients of Scott's Transport or any other transport company who are using these people: I am coming for you. And I am not saying it lightly. I am wound up like a clock. I am not going to sit back when there is a responsibility, as a legislator in this country, to have that side of parliament doing everything it can to tear down our Road Safety Remuneration Tribunal. The beautiful thing about this is that the coalition senators that I spoke to on my committee are 100 per cent behind me.

God help us! You can find a truck driver in this country with one phone call. (Time expired)

    
And here is the Sterle speech in pictures, unfortunately there is a lag between the audio & the video that suggests a glitch off the Parlview webpage :

IMO whatever kool-aid Senator Sterle is drinking, someone needs to distribute it, preferably via IV, to every member of Parliament - bucket of chocfrogs for Sterlo

Sterlo & the RRAT committee getting up a head of steam - "..I am coming for you. And I am not saying it lightly. I am wound up like a clock..." 

In what has to be regarded as ominous signs, yesterday in Parliament Sterlo delivered a short but direct adjournment speech which IMO indicates that he and the committee are hunting for bear in this the 45th Parliament... :

Senator STERLE (Western Australia) (19:25): I want to talk about some fine work that is being conducted on the Rural and Regional Affairs and Transport Committee. Before I do, there is something that Australians really have to understand about what is going on in this nation. Through our road safety inquiry, we have uncovered the exploitation of foreign workers, predominantly Indians, through a corrupting of the visa system. What has come out—and it is on the Hansard record—is that there are scumbags in this fine country that are bringing Indians into Australia on student visas and then the students are being employed as truck drivers. I am not having a go at Indians. Let me just get this clear. Everyone is welcome in this nation. What I am having a go at is exploitation, through the visa system—and God only knows what they are being paid, at the expense of Australian jobs. This is where I have a real problem—

Senator Williams interjecting—

Senator STERLE: and Senator Williams has been working very closely with me on this. We will continue to delve into this disgusting behaviour that is being conducted in this nation.
The Department of Immigration and Border Protection are well aware of it, because they are the ones that gave us the information. We finally sucked it out of the department, in a hearing, what the hell visa these drivers were on. This was the B-double. I made a mistake. I just saw a tweet and I thought it was a semi. It was a B-double. So to all those passionate truckies out there that cannot wait—good old truckies!—to tell me I got the wrong configuration: well done, boys. Yeah, I get it. Now put the effort into your fingers and start dobbing in these so-and-sos for exploiting these people. That would be a far better use of your energy.

These students were employed with Scott's transport. I do not know what they do during the week. Maybe they are studying medicine. Maybe they are doing some fantastic work to become great citizens and help out kids with cancer. Maybe they are studying nuclear medicine. I do not know. But on that side of the chamber do they seriously believe that those of us who have a trucking background, who actually are passionate about Australian jobs and Australian apprenticeships, believe that these students on Friday night pack up their schoolbooks, put them into a case or put them into the locker at uni, then jump into a B-double and do a two-up operation between Brisbane and Sydney and back? Pull the other leg—seriously.

I am going to read some excerpts from correspondence I had on behalf of the Queensland government Department of Transport and Main Roads. They were fantastic. They had taken information from us. We said that we had a real problem. We found out there is an RTO in Tweed Heads—and I will give you the name of the RTO. I am not going to rush, because I am going to come back into this chamber every week and do a speech on this and keep everyone updated with what is going on. There is a twisted, bent, corrupt RTO in Tweed Heads who was bringing the Indian students from Queensland into New South Wales. They were doing their training there. He was assessing them, then he was ticking off and saying that they were fit to drive, and then they were going back to Queensland. The Queensland government—thank goodness for the Queensland government—issued 113 'show causes' to these 113 people who came through this corrupt provider of heavy vehicle transport licensing: 'Why should you have a licence?'

The result of that was that 60 licence holders have had their heavy vehicle licence downgraded to a car licence. Six have passed the Q-SAFE class heavy rigid practical driving test, demonstrating their competency to hold a class HR licence, and 47 have been granted an extension of time to undergo further testing. Mr Acting Deputy President Marshall, I know your commitment to young Australian workers through your previous life and how you were successful in gaining an apprenticeship and became a tradesman. If this were happening in plumbing or electrics or house building—and it might be for all I know—there would be an absolute uproar. Why is there not an absolute uproar from that side of the chamber that Indian truck drivers are being brought into this nation, corruptly trained in Queensland and given licences and then going out on the roads and being exploited?

God only knows how dangerous these blokes can be. So what I am asking on the website—my Facebook page that I have started, where we have had 216,000 people contacted, 37,000 views and 1,012 shares—is: dob them in. I will be proud to stand up here and dob in, and relay your words of, every corrupt employer of transport, or user of transport, that is exploiting Indian drivers and exploiting the visa system.

Senator Williams: And trainers.

Senator STERLE: Senator Williams and I will continue the good work. We have only just started scratching the surface. This is going to be fun.

 

In other news from the Senate, apparently a resolution/motion was passed in the 1st sitting week that all outstanding QON from previous Estimates (i.e. from 44th Parliament) will be answered and passed into the respective committees by COB today.

It will be interesting to see if Murky and his motley crew manage to meet this deadline; or will he once again thumb his nose at the good Senators...    

On another bit of RRAT committee news, I note that Senator (Bazza) O'Sullivan has been selected to fill the very big shoes of the Heff, as Chair (Legislative) & Deputy Chair (Reference). If his questioning of CASA on the Jabiru embuggerance was anything to go by, I don't think the good Senator will broker much bureaucratic bollocks or Hoodoo Voodoo weasel words...    

Much..much..MTF - P2

Ps Having developed a recent interest in the Joint Parliamentary committee for treaties - see HERE &..

...I was pleased to note that the membership in this parliament of JSCOT also included Senator Sterle.

I also noted with interest certain lapsed inquiries from the 44th Parliament were carried across and reinitiated for inquiry - see top 2 & No. 6 HERE.

Pps Due to the very relevant content the No.6 reinitiated inquiry will be taken as being actively monitored by PAIN and all previous records, submissions, Hansard etc. plus any updates will appear on the AMROBA thread...

[Kharon]

Estimates season.

There are folk who await the Christmas season with bated breath, while visions of sugar plums dance in their heads. There are those who await hunting season, eagerly spending on the paraphernalia and latest outfit, gun oil and ‘don’t shoot me’ stickers for their silly arses. I hear there are folk who loose sleep waiting for the latest fashion designs to be released; they are friends with those who will kill and maim to get tickets to an opening night.  Bismillah; manifold and wondrous are the workings of the gods.  But for PAIN; it’s the Estimates hearings. Pitch forks being sharpened, stakes being pointed, sacks of feathers along with barrels of tar; you can’t buy a straight rail at Bunnings; there’s been a run.  

The stars of the show have been training during the winter months and in the warm-up sessions have been showing the benefits of that hard work.  Fawcett is in dynamic form, lethal as ever, well informed, well briefed, precise, cool and eloquent.  Sterle in the warm up bouts has been impressive, as always, but there is an extra something in the tank this season; a little more ‘Oomph’.  O’Sullivan standing four square and more than capable of filling the Heffernan place; unflappable, another lethal weapon. Xenophon, back in harness and with some added horsepower to boot, a consummate politician and a honest campaigner.  Who could ask for more, not the IOS.  The roll call of honour of those who did aviation proud last season is long and the reappearance of the perennial favourites is looked forward to.

There will be some ‘grudge matches’ as well as local Derby’s; many old scores to settle and lots and lots of probing questions. Many of the opposition teams will be hoping (praying) that time has mellowed the anger of this first class Senate crew, which would be a mistake. It is always a mistake to underestimate the opposition; particularly when they are already pissed off, before the obfuscation defence kicks in and the ‘take it on notice’ escape is used.  There will be some awkward moments; as a couple of departmental windbags discovered this week. This Senate crew ain’t taking prisoners; not taking funny cheques or buying any snake oil.

It is not everyman’s indaba, but those with an interest in the well being and future of the aviation industry need to get a season ticket, best seats and be there to support the best hope aviation has had in many a long, weary decade.

The Hansard team and the boys and girls behind the scenes will be doing their usual splendid job, so replays and ‘interesting’ passages of play will be available as soon as practical.  Check list: beer, munchies, and special throwing popcorn which will not damage your monitor; (GD buys in bulk) and the bucket; don’t forget the bucket, essential equipment.

Toot toot; and, a high probability of more to follow.  (Cheers Kelpie).

[Gobbledock]

Tick tock goes the Senators wound-up clock

One positive to come from the Senators recent 'warm up matches' is this; at least we know that the new CAsA DAs won't be the CEO of Scott's Transport!!!

Regarding the upcoming upcoming senate series I have;
- purchased a new comfy Jason recliner (no, it's not a metaphor for Electric Blue, however his tubby double chin would make for a comfy seat and his back would make a nice footrest if I could ever get Houstoblame's giant feet off it)
- bought a new plasma wall screen (love watching on the big screen the frowns swelling on Sterles face as the legend launches into top gear),
- I just had a B-double from Scott's Transport deliver 30 tonne of the beloved 'special' popcorn (not an Indian driver either, so all good)
- serviced the Houseboats engines in case of emergency call outs (fingers crossed, yes please).

As Senator Sterle said; "I am coming for you, and I am wound up like a clock"!

So, without delay I say to the good Senators; ding ding (or toot toot) let's get ready to rummmmmmmble

[Peetwo]

A first for Murky & his motley crew -

I believe that in the history of M&M's tenure as the secretary of the DoIRD, that the Estimates QON have never been answered on or prior to the due date. Well surprise, surprise we have a first with the Estimates AQON being on time and on budget...

Department of Infrastructure and Regional Development

Index of Questions on Notice: (PDF 111KB)

In the 44th Parliament, the committee set 17 June 2016 as the date by which answers to questions on notice from the Budget Estimates 2016-17 hearing were to be returned.

Following the dissolution of both Houses of Parliament with effect from 9.00am on 9 May 2016 for the federal election, unanswered questions on notice lapsed.

Following the opening of the 45th Parliament, on 31 August 2016, the Senate agreed that answers be provided by 14 September 2016 to all legislation committees relating to all questions taken on notice by the committees’ predecessor committees with respect to the 2015-16 additional estimates and the 2016-17 budget estimates, and which remained unanswered at the beginning of the new Parliament.

QoN Number
Division/Agency
View File
Date Received

1-3
Corporate Services Division
PDF 36KB
14/09/2016

4, 7-18
Infrastructure Investment Division
PDF 134KB
14/09/2016

19
Infrastructure Australia
PDF 11KB
14/09/2016

20
Aviation and Airports Division
PDF 11KB
14/09/2016

21-23
Civil Aviation Safety Authority
PDF 26KB
14/09/2016

24
Airservices Australia
PDF 12.9MB
14/09/2016

25
Local Government and Territories Division
PDF 12KB
14/09/2016

26
Surface Transport Policy Division
PDF 15KB
14/09/2016

 
Although in retrospect, with only 26 QON it was not much of a challenge really...


MTF...P2

[Peetwo]

The PelAir ghosts & ghouls past, revisited?-   

In a somewhat pre-emptive move and for obvious Reasons, I have decided to drag the new PAIN public enemy No.1 Dr (Hoodoo Voodoo) Walker across to the Senate thread...

So over to you Senators...

Ghost who walks & talks beyond Reason -  

Hiatus; after the storm.

I quite enjoy a full head of steam, most refreshing, but I do however like to know the root cause. When I got the whole story from Kaz; the blue touch paper started to fizz; certainly the Walker insulting, demeaning behaviour and unbelievable ‘attitude’ created the spark, but I was surprised at the level of fury it generated. Time to think it through; so I did.  Ala P2, I put on the research hat, fired up the trusty box, grabbed a fresh ale and went back to the very beginning.  From Seaview to Lockhart through to Pel-Air; Mildura, Albury, Melbourne etc.  The midnight oil bill took a beating, I finally understood the radicals, but not the Walker trigger. A second ale helped sooth the curiosity bump and the little light came on. The Pel-Air review, the itch I couldn’t scratch.

Totally and completely unnecessary. The Senators (bless) allowed a second chance; with which I have no quarrel; they could hardly take an axe to the entire structure of aviation administration, much as they may like to. So, as an act of grace and forbearance, a second chance was gifted. A chance for both the ATSB and CASA of redemption, an escape from the pit.  Furry muff, I can, as a practical man accept that. What I cannot accept is that both agencies have continued, despite a very close shave, to thumb their collective noses at government and industry alike. That attitude clearly reflected in the Walker diatribe against Karen Casey. In a few short moments, he revealed the true attitude of the agency he represents.  Karen, like industry, is an irritant and may be treated with open contempt. There is not a hint of ‘humble-pie’ or apology, not a scrap of remorse, not a glimmer of real change to be seen. In short, despite Pel-Air there is no hope of a real attitude change, in fact quite the reverse. They are coming out swinging, not in a mans way, but with snide, smug, self satisfied work round’s, of which they are ‘proud’.

The concerns PAIN raised in supplementary comments, provided to the SSC on the re-investigation of the Pel-Air incident are proving to be founded in reality. Walker’s attitude indicative of fact.

FWIW – the Supplementary comments are available from the AP library – HERE -.

P7 is correct. A weasel worded apology will not serve, the under pinning structure is deeply flawed and an attitude change is necessary. Anything else is simply window dressing, designed to keep the ministerial arse out the public sling.  Warning – that will not be allowed to happen; not a second time.

Toot – toot.

Surprise - Another bloody useless minister.

No point in waiting for the inevitable results of the Chester ministry; none at all.  The man simply will not allow the problems to be aired and examined; the useless sod will not even ‘talk about’ the latest, in a long string of gross insult offered to Karen Casey. He won’t interact with industry, being content to sit back and let the agencies do their thing and rumble along in the same direction, with the same mind-set and piss poor attitude.

He should be demanding that ATSB issue a written, public apology to Karen;insist the revised Pel-Air report be released, he could also get things moving on the reform front; but does he? Does he hell. We must all wait patiently until the weasel word smiths have finished massaging the latest ‘workshopped’ masterpiece which will, in the fullness of time achieve SFA.  No matter; the ministerial Muppet will have moved on by the time nothing in the form of reform has been achieved, without even getting his highly polished boots muddy.

Well, he joins a long list now of Do Nuthin’s.  It is not a very salubrious list, but he will be in good company, as he stands proudly in the large pension cashing queue; so, no wukkers. Life is good; Bravo.

To put the PAIN supplementary comments in context the following is an archived AP blog post which featured a Hitch article from Oz Flying:

Norfolk ditching Round 2

• Posted by admin
  
• on February 8, 2015
  
• • Accidents and Inquiry
  
• • Edit
  

08Feb



ATSB to feel PAIN over Pel-Air Investigation
19 Jan 2015
 
A confidential group known as the Professional Aviators Investigative Network (PAIN) has raised concerns over the ATSB review of the Pel-Air ditching report.

Late last year, the ATSB agreed to review the report into the 2009 ditching of a Pel-Air aeromedical flight at Norfolk Island, after a Canadian review highlighted anomalies with the investigation report.

In a submission to the Senate Standing Committee on Rural and Regional Affairs and Transport (RRAT) written in December, the group has criticised the ATSB’s decision to use one of their own people to lead the review.

“… the ATSB [has] elected to utilise Dr Michael Walker of the ATSB to lead the investigation,” the PAIN submission points out. “We believe that to be effective, any investigation should be conducted independently and not involve ATSB, the commissioners or staff if only to preclude any suspicion of ‘internal’ influence or external bias being raised.”

PAIN is also concerned that the terms of reference announced by General Manager Aviation Safety Investigations Ian Sangston do not go far enough.

“The terms of reference cited by Mr Sangston are narrow and only mention the ‘report’ itself. Whilst the industry acknowledges that the report was substandard, there is little doubt that the investigators conducted their work with integrity and within the prescribed guidelines. Indeed, the early stages of the ATSB report were exemplary and clearly directed toward serious safety recommendations being made.

“We believe little will gained by utilising scarce resources re-investigating the original ATSB investigative ‘reports’.”

Instead, PAIN points the finger of blame for the original Pel-Air investigation report squarely at the both CASA and the ATSB and hints at deeper issues.

“Our greatest concern is that a deliberate, calculated manipulation of the national aviation safety system was attempted. It is not a ‘one off’ aberration. We firmly believe that the subsequent actions of both the Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA) and the ATSB were proven, by the AAI [RRAT inquiry] committee, to grossly pervert the conclusions of the ATSB investigation to suit a clearly predetermined outcome, thus denying industry valuable, safety related knowledge and information.

“It is the process by which these subsequent events occurred which demands an independent investigation conducted  transparently in public. We believe the Senate Committee is the right reporting and oversight platform for that investigation. The committee Senators are well briefed, informed and have a firm, current understanding of what transpired during the events subsequent to the Pel-Air aircraft ditching off Norfolk Island.

“Further, the Estimates committee is very clearly ‘awake’ to the machinations of the various aviation oversight bodies and will not easily be misled or confounded by ‘technical’ issues.

“We submit that any other form of investigation will not withstand the scrutiny of industry experts; as the initial premise is fatally flawed.”

PAIN describes itself as “a loosely organised, informal, confidential network which has formed and expanded over a number of years. There are approximately 1000 associates of the network; many participants, in one form or another may be properly considered expert witnesses.”

Its stated aims are to conduct independent investigations to provide aviators with a defence against “unfair, unreasonable or incorrect” made by CASA and its flight and airworthiness inspectors.

The members of PAIN remain largely anonymous to the general public, although it is known the group gave evidence to the original RRAT inquiry into the Pel-Air ditching.

Totally wanting to rub salt into the wounds of the numties in the miniscule's office and at the ATSB (including Sangston, Walsh and the invisible Manning), with a big "WE TOLD YOU SO", here is the executive summary in full from the PAIN sup comments that was originally addressed to the Senate RRAT committee, after the ATSB announced the re-opening of the VH-NGA, Norfolk Island ditching accident investigation nearly 2 years ago:  

Executive summary.

1) The purpose of this report is to draw to the attention of the Aviation Accident

Investigation (AAI) Senate Committee members, who participated in the Pel-Air

inquiry several matters of grave concern raised from within the PAIN network.

2) In short, we are certain that the committee is very aware that the Australian

Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) has grudgingly condescended to re-open the

investigation into the 'report' of that incident. The following are of concern:-

a) That the ATSB have elected to utilise Dr. Michael Walker of the ATSB to lead the

investigation. We believe that to be effective, any investigation should be

conducted independently and not involve ATSB, the commissioners or staff if only to

preclude any suspicion of 'internal' influence or external bias being raised.

b) The terms of reference cited by Mr. Sangston are narrow and only mention the

'report' itself. Whilst the industry acknowledges that the report was substandard,

there is little doubt that the investigators conducted their work with integrity and

within the prescribed guidelines. Indeed, the early stages of the ATSB report were

exemplary and clearly directed toward serious safety recommendations being made.

We believe little will gained by utilising scarce resources re-investigating the original

ATSB investigative 'reports'.

3) Our greatest concern is that a deliberate, calculated manipulation of the national

aviation safety system was attempted. It is not a 'one off' aberration. We firmly

believe that the subsequent actions of both the Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA)

and the ATSB were proven, by the AAI committee, to grossly pervert the conclusions

of the ATSB investigation to suit a clearly predetermined outcome, thus denying

industry valuable, safety related knowledge and information.

4) It is the process by which these subsequent events occurred which demands an

independent investigation conducted transparently in public. We believe the Senate

Committee is the right reporting and oversight platform for that investigation. The

committee Senators are well briefed, informed and have a firm, current understanding

of what transpired during the events subsequent to the Pel-Air aircraft ditching off

Norfolk Island. Further, the Estimates committee is very clearly 'awake' to the

machinations of the various aviation oversight bodies and will not easily be misled or

confounded by 'technical' issues.

5) We submit that any other form of investigation will not withstand the scrutiny of

industry experts; as the initial premise is fatally flawed. The potential for further

disingenuous obfuscation is obvious. This will, ultimately, be detrimental, not only to

the travelling public and industry, but to the government which allowed one authority

to investigate it's own wrong doings, but avoided investigating those agencies and

their officers, which aided and abetted the travesty, which was the Pel-Air accident

investigation became.

    
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