[Peetwo]

Boeing in a fork'n'pickle - 

Via the Oz:

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Qantas engineers in US seeking a pickle fork fix



Qantas engineers have travelled to the US to learn how to replace a critical aircraft component after the discovery of hairline cracks in the pickle forks of three Boeing 737-800s.

The pickle forks help attach the wings of the aircraft to the fuselage and are part of the aircraft structure, which means they are not easily replaced.

Inspections ordered by the Federal Aviation Administration exposed the cracks in the Qantas aeroplanes, which the airline immediately took out of service.

Worldwide about 50 Boeing 737-800s have been found to have cracked pickle forks, or about 5 per cent of those inspected.

Boeing is continuing to work with suppliers to supply the necessary parts to customers and Qantas engineers are among those in Victorville, California, learning how to fix the problem.

A statement from Boeing said the manufacturer regretted the impact the problem was having on their 737 Next Generation customers worldwide.

“We are working around the clock to provide the support needed to return all aeroplanes to service as soon as possible,” the statement said.

Virgin Australia inspected 19 of its Boeing 737-800s, including six that were yet to reach the threshold of 22,600 landings recommended by the FAA for examination. None were found to have the hairline cracks, but CEO Paul Scurrah said they just wanted to be certain.

“On top of inspecting the aircraft we were technically required to do, there were a further six that were inspected and found to be OK,” Mr Scurrah said. “We wanted to be thorough about the risk of that being in our fleet so we made the decision to go further than what the manufacturer and regulator required us to do.”

[size=undefined]A matter of urgency: push for airlines to widen Boeing 737 crack checks[/size]



Pressure is growing on airlines to widen their inspections of Boeing 737 Next Generation aircraft after evidence a key component is cracking at a much earlier stage than expected.

Two Lion Air jets with less than 22,000 landings on the clock, have been found with hairline cracks in the pickle fork, which help attach the wings to the fuselage.

Both jets are 737-900 models, not the 737-800 aircraft operated by Qantas and Virgin Australia.

But Australian Licensed Aircraft Engineers Association secretary Steve Purvinas said the discovery highlighted why all 737NGs should be inspected as a matter of urgency.

“If it’s not a safety issue, then why is it that any aircraft found with cracks are being taken out of service?” Mr Purvinas said.

“Accidents happen due to a combination of things, and something like a cracked pickle fork and a hard landing could have serious consequences.”

He said the original directive from Boeing and the Federal Aviation Administration had recommended inspections of aircraft with over 35,000 landings which was “clearly way off the mark”.

“You’ve got cracks being found on aircraft with 15,000 fewer cycles,” said Mr Purvinas.

“Why take the chance of operating aircraft without knowing if the pickle forks are cracked or not?”

Last week Qantas completed inspections of 33 737-800s, three of which were found to have hairline cracks in the pickle forks and removed from service until repairs could be made.

Virgin Australia examined 19 of its 737-800s, all of which had greater than 18,000 landings.

No issues was found and a spokeswoman said they would follow any further directives from the Civil Aviation Safety Authority or the FAA as a matter or priority.

Qantas has sent engineers to Victorville in California to learn how to fix the pickle forks which are part of the aircraft’s structure, and intended to last for 90,000 cycles or landings.

Mr Purvinas said it was a “massive job” to replace them because many primary parts of the aircraft had to be removed in order to fit new pickle forks.

Qantas is hopeful the three 737-800s will be back in service by Christmas and has promised to minimise any impact to customers.

Indonesian carrier Lion Air reports cracks in new Boeing 737s in more bad news for Seattle-based company

Updated about 10 hours ago

[b]PHOTO:[/b] Lion Air performed the checks even though they were not yet required.

[b]RELATED STORY:[/b] Qantas grounds three jets due to cracks, lashes 'irresponsible' union
[b]RELATED STORY:[/b] 'Deficiencies' that led to deadly Lion Air crash revealed to victims' families
[b]RELATED STORY:[/b] 'She's not picking up her phone': Families of 157 aboard crashed plane gather

Indonesian carrier Lion Air has found structural cracks in two Boeing 737 NG planes that have taken fewer flights than a US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) threshold for checks, Indonesia's aviation safety regulator says.

Key points:

• Indonesian carrier Lion Air found cracks in two Boeing 737 NG planes
  
  
• The airline has an tragic recent history after everyone on board a Boeing 737 MAX was killed when it crashed in 2018
  
  
• Several other airlines, including Qantas, have experienced cracking issues near the 'pickle fork' section of the plane
  

The discovery could make it more likely the FAA will require airline operators to inspect 737 NGs with fewer than 22,600 cycles, which had not been mandated previously.

Each cycle typically represents one flight, with a take-off and a landing.

The cracks are on what is known as the "pickle fork", a part that attaches the plane's fuselage, or body, to the wing structure.

An FAA spokesman said the agency had asked operators to report any cracks so it could assess whether it needed to change its inspection orders.

The Lion Air jets with cracks had fewer than 22,000 cycles and were now grounded for repairs, a spokesman for the airline said.

Lion Air performed the checks even though they were not yet required, to "ensure security and safety of the flights," he said.

Indonesia's Director-General of Civil Aviation, Polana Pramesti, said there were no plans for the country's aviation regulator to expand the inspections beyond the FAA directive.

The FAA requires immediate checks of aircraft with more than 33,000 cycles and inspections within the next 1,000 cycles for those with more than 22,600 cycles.

Boeing did not respond to an immediate request for comment. The manufacturer last week said just over 1,000 planes globally had met the threshold for inspections to date, and of those, fewer than 5 per cent had issues.

The cracks in the Lion Air planes were just the latest to be found after several airlines, including Qantas, found them on their aircraft.

Despite finding cracks in three 737 NG aircraft at the pickle fork structure, Qantas rubbished "irresponsible" calls for their fleet to be grounded.

"We would never fly an aircraft that wasn't safe," Qantas Domestic chief executive Andrew David said.

"Even where these hairline cracks are present they're not an immediate risk, which is clear from the fact the checks were not required for at least seven months."

Southwest Airlines, Brazil's Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes and Korean Air Lines are among the carriers to ground planes after discovering cracks.

Lion's recent Boeing history

Lion Air has a shocking recent history with Seattle-based Boeing, which began in October of 2018 when one of the airline's newer 737 MAX jets crashed shortly after take-off from Jakarta, killing all 189 people on board and leading to heightened scrutiny on the carrier's maintenance operations by Indonesia's safety regulator.

That crash was the first time a Boeing 737 MAX jet crashed shortly after take-off but not the last and it was followed in March 2019 by an Ethiopian airlines jet crashing, also killing everyone on board.

The result of the second incident was the Boeing 737 MAX being grounded worldwide by US presidential decree.

Indonesian aviation investigators eventually found mechanical and design issues contributed to the crash of the Lion Air jet and that incorrect assumptions on how an anti-stall device — called the Manoeuvring Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) — functioned and how pilots would react played a part.

In October, explosive text messages from a former test pilot claimed Boeing knew about the dangerous behaviour of the MCAS system and that the MCAS was "running rampant" and more powerful than the company had told the FAA.

---

And some additional media links for the latest on the 737 MAX imbroglio:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...-simulator

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/07/busin...x-faa.html

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/08/polit...index.html


MTF...P2 

[Peetwo]

737 MAX - update: 19/11/19

From WSJ, via the Oz...  

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FAA boss urges safety rethink over aircraft certification


By BENJAMIN KATZ and ANDY PASZTOR
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
12:00AM NOVEMBER 19, 2019




FAA Administrator Stephen Dickson has previously said he wants to adopt a more holistic approach to certification. Picture: Stefani Reynolds

US air-safety regulators are considering ways to alter fundamentally how they certify aircraft in the wake of Boeing’s 737 Max ­crisis, the head of the Federal Aviation Administration says.

FAA Administrator Stephen Dickson has previously said he wants to adopt a more holistic approach to certification.

In an interview in Dubai on Sunday, he gave new details about the agency’s thinking, including the possibility of the FAA being involved in the design of a new plane from the outset.

There should be more dialogue between the FAA and plane-­makers over the course of the development of a new jet, Mr Dickson said, and “human factors” — such as how rapidly airline pilots realistically are able to react in certain emergency situations — should be more of a priority in the process of designing jets.

“That probably needed to happen some time ago,” he said.

The proposals for any overhaul are still general and could change once US congress weighs in, as the FAA responds to criticism of the way it approves new aircraft and what some politicians see as its too-close relationship with the ­industry.

Mr Dickson, a former air force and commercial pilot who came to the FAA from a senior safety job at Delta Air Lines, did not provide more specifics about his plans and nor provide a target date for implementing a new system.

He has told aides he did not plan to unveil specifics until the grounded 737 Max fleet was back in the air following two fatal crashes, people familiar with his thinking said.

Still, on the sidelines of an international air show in Dubai, the FAA chief suggested a move towards greater agency input. Today’s certification system, he said, provided manufacturers with a list of rules they must meet, but the FAA was often brought in only at the end to assess the design.

“The current approach is you’re answering all these questions and then it’s ‘OK FAA, here’s my final exam. Grade my paper,’ ’’ Mr Dickson said. “That’s the transactional approach. The holistic approach is more of a dialogue as you go through the process.” The FAA has been under pressure over its initial safety approval and subsequent scrutiny of the 737 Max. Boeing relied on overly optimistic assumptions about pilot behaviour both in designing some flight-control systems and vouching for their safety after the initial crash, The Wall Street Journal has previously reported.

In the dual crashes, which together killed 346 people, misfires of an automated system put the jets into nosedives despite pilot efforts to stop the descents.

The crashes triggered a global grounding of the aircraft, disrupting airline schedules and creating the biggest financial and public relations crisis for Boeing in recent memory.

Separate groups of US and international experts, including accident investigators, already have urged both the FAA and Boeing to jettison decades-old ­assumptions about likely pilot responses. They have released reports recommending switching to more realistic design principles based on actual flight tests using a broad range of pilots with varying levels of experience and training.

Boeing has vowed to learn from its mistakes, although it has previously said development and testing of the Max was the result of a lengthy, methodical process and the plane met all federal safety standards. Since the crashes, the Chicago plane-maker has moved to revamp its safety review procedures, in part by giving members of the board of directors more insight and enhanced authority over top-priority risks.

The FAA also has been subject to criticism for essentially outsourcing much of its certification responsibilities to industry engineers and other experts, who are authorised to make decisions on behalf of the regulator.

Outside experts have proposed a range of potential improvements to the FAA, including a stepped-up focus on pinpointing potentially hazardous new technologies, reducing the number of risk analyses delegated to industry and beefing up the agency’s expertise when it comes to automation.

The longstanding industry practice has grown in scope as planes become more complicated and amid limited FAA resources. Mr Dickson’s predecessor said reversing that trend might require some $10bn in extra FAA funding over a number of years — something politicians are unlikely to embrace.

Mr Dickson, though, said he didn’t think that aspect of the certification process was necessarily an issue, adding that other manufacturers were “doing a very good job of this.

“And I’m not saying Boeing doesn’t normally do a good job.”

---

MTF...P2 

[Kharon]

FWIW.I found this article on the Lion Air accident interesting. The thing is, without actually sighting the training records and some support commentary from other pilots who had actually operated with the crew, well, - you can guess the rest. There is an essential need for debate starting to build; between those 'can do' and those increasingly dependent on automated systems to manage a flight. It would be an interesting discussion; where to draw the line:  increasingly automated aircraft and the computer skills required to operate the aircraft v the need for 'hands on' skills. This takes us to simulator time v aircraft time in actual conditions. Much for the big guns to consider.
Toot - toot.

[Peetwo]

An apology on Erebus 40 years on?? - 

From RNZ, via stuff.co.nz...

---

Erebus disaster pilot's widow says apology left her in 'complete shock'

RNZ08:43, Nov 29 2019

This story was originally published on RNZ.co.nz and is republished with permission.

The widow of the pilot of the plane that crashed into Mt Erebus 40 years ago says an apology from the Government and Air New Zealand took her completely by surprise.

Maria Collins was at Government House on Thursday when Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern apologised to families for failures and wrong decisions by Air New Zealand – which was wholly owned by the Government at the time – both up to and after the disaster in which 257 people died.



On the day of the Erebus crash, Maria Collins was at home in the Auckland suburb of St Heliers.

Collins, the widow of pilot Captain Jim Collins, said she always thought there would eventually be an official apology, but did not think it would come within her lifetime.

Hearing the apology left her in "complete shock", she told RNZ's Morning Report.

READ MORE:
* A sense of 'relief' from Erebus families after Jacinda Ardern's heartfelt apology
* Apology lifts a lifelong weight for Erebus victim's daughter
* Jacinda Ardern apologises for Air New Zealand Erebus tragedy at 40th anniversary event
* In full: Prime Minster Jacinda Ardern's Erebus apology


"It did vindicate what so many hundreds of New Zealanders let alone my legal team and others who wrote books on it ... it's hard to believe, I truly was delighted and very shocked and surprised when it happened [on Thursday].



Jim Collins was the captain of Air New Zealand flight TE901 when it crashed into the slopes of Mount Erebus.

"I thought one day I'd wake up and that's what I'd love to hear. But of course, that doesn't happen in my life time and I was going to wake up and it would all be gone."

It had since become more real for her.

"I can only say I'm truly grateful for our family and for us. I can hardly speak with the emotion of what it means to us."

She said she hadn't considered any legal action.

"We're still digesting this moment. And we'll have to see whether, or if, or not at all, it's something that we haven't even considered. We're just savouring the moment of the prime minister's words."

---

MTF...P2 

[Cap'n Wannabe]

Full story here..

Fatalities reported after Bek Air flight with 95 passengers on board crashes during takeoff

A Bek Air plane with 95 passengers and five crew members on board has crashed near the city of Almaty in Kazakhstan, killing at least 12 people, authorities in the Central Asian country say.

The plane was heading for the capital, Nur-Sultan, on Friday and "lost altitude during takeoff and broke through a concrete fence" before hitting a two-storey building, Kazakhstan's Civil Aviation Committee said in a statement.

According to the Emergencies Committee, at least 12 people were killed. The government and Almaty airport said emergency services were working at the site to get survivors out.

A Reuters reporter travelling to the airport said there was thick fog in the area.

The plane belonged to Kazakh carrier Bek Air, which operates a fleet of Fokker 100 jets. The aviation committee said it was suspending all flights of that type of aircraft pending an investigation.

"Those responsible will face tough punishment in accordance with the law," Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev tweeted, expressing condolences to the victims and their families.

[Kharon]

Nasty Accident - Sage advice.

"The Ukrainian Embassy said a commission was investigating the crash and that "any statements about the causes of the accident before the decision of the commission are not official." (Washington Post).

NY Times best coverage so far. – HERE -

[P7_TOM]

Translation:

Initial report of 752 Ukrainian Airlines Flight Accident Report released
0 views | Release Time: January 23, 2010 at 9:50 pm

The preliminary report on the accident investigation of the Ukrainian plane was released by the National Aviation Accident Investigation Team.
Ali Abedzadeh, head of the National Aviation Authority, said in a statement that measures taken since the launch of the investigation so far are based on a number of key issues, including: gathering preliminary information, setting up a crisis management team in the area, dispatching rescue teams to search and rescue sites, The first steps were to get passengers information from the airline and other authorities, such as the Migration Police, identifying the accident investigator and dispatching the accident team to the scene, Imam Khomeini Airport and Mehrabad Airport.Initial notification of the accident was carried out and according to the Code of Conduct for Civil Aviation Accidents and Incidents approved by the Cabinet, 11 accident investigation teams were formed.

The head of the civil aviation agency said: flight recorders (black boxes) have been found and have been handed over to the accident investigator. Documentation and evidence of the crash site were reviewed and the remaining parts of the aircraft were collected and transported to a safe location. Black boxes containing the Flight Recorder (FDR) and the cockpit voice recorder (CVR) were found by search and rescue agents and are in the possession of the accident investigation team. Both devices were damaged by accident and fire. There is memory in both devices, but physical damage is visible on them.

Abedzadeh stated that the Accident Investigation Team, in accordance with the standards set forth in annex 13 of the Chicago Convention, invited all States recognized as beneficiaries of this document to introduce their representatives in the disaster investigation process and now designate their own specialized team. And they are in the process of sending their aircraft to Iran to carry out their duties.

Describing the flight conditions of the aircraft, he said: "The aircraft first rises to an altitude of 8,000 feet and then the aircraft's information is removed from the radar screen and the aircraft collides with the ground and collapses. No radio messages were received by the pilot regarding unusual circumstances. According to eyewitness reports (people on the ground and high-altitude flight crew who observed and reported the incident), a fire was observed and added to the range, and after the aircraft collided with the ground, an explosion caused a collision. The crash happened and the plane's trajectory indicates that the plane was initially heading westward, turning right after the problem and was on its way back to the airport at the time of the crash.

He further said: "The accident site documentation shows that the plane's first collision with the ground was in the grounds of an amusement park. Has been.

Abedzadeh continued: Initial notification was given to Ukraine as the country of registration of the aircraft, the United States as the manufacturer, Sweden and Canada as the applicant countries whose nationals were in the aircraft, and Ukraine requested to be involved in the accident review process. Has introduced a team to participate in the disaster investigation, identification and transfer of the bodies of its nationals and other duties under the circumstances of the registrant and exploiter country, whose representatives will soon arrive in the country.

He said the plane had 167 passengers and nine crew members, all of whom died in the crash. There were 146 passengers with Iranian passports, 10 with Afghan passports, 5 with Canadian passports, 4 with Swedish passports, and 2 with Ukrainian passports and 9 flight crews, all of whom were Ukrainian nationals.

The head of the Civil Aviation Authority also said: "Some passengers may have multiple nationalities and be reported in another report with another nationality." The above list relates to a passport that left the Islamic Republic of Iran. The bodies and remains of the occupants were identified and transported to forensic medicine under the supervision of judicial authorities for identification and transfer formalities.

By gathering and completing the information, he said, the latest findings of the accident investigation will be formally published and publicly available.

The scheduled flight of Boeing 752 to Tehran-Kyiv Boeing 737-800 from the Ukrainian International Airlines with a UR-PSR registration mark departing from the park at 5:45 minutes and departing at 06:13 on Wednesday. 2010/8/18 Flight from Imam Khomeini Airport Runway. The above flight, under the control of the Imam Khomeini Airport Watch Tower, continued to climb, then delivered to the Mehrabad Flight Approximation Unit and was allowed to rise to 26,000 feet. After cutting off communication with the traffic control unit at 6:18 pm near Saba Shahr, Tehran province fell.

Abedzadeh at the end criticized some of the material published in the cyber space regarding the accident of the Ukrainian plane and the issue of the black boxes on the plane. Failure to send overseas flight registration boxes was a mistake taken by the reporter.

[Kharon]

There’s lots of ‘chatter’ and speculation related to the Ukrainian IA disaster out there. Trump said ‘let’s wait and see’. The NYT seems to carry a balanced story line the latest – HERE -.

[Peetwo]

Flight Safety Detectives breakdown the NTSC LionAir FL610 report - 

For those interested in  the linked podcast from the FSDs is definitely worth the time (two to three coffee/beers) to tune into, some of the revelations and real facts touched on will give you a whole new (reinforce old) perspective/OBS on the ongoing Boeing 737 MAX imbroglio...

---

January 8, 2020
The (Real) Facts of the Indonesian Report
Episode 13

The Indonesian National Transportation Safety Committee (NTSC) final report regarding the crash of Lion Air Flight 610 continues to get a lot of media attention. Moving away from soundbites, John and Greg examine the actual words and facts found in the report and call out numerous false narratives.
 
Chaos in the cockpit? The report mentions that the sound of pages being turned in the operations manual could be heard on the cockpit voice recorder.
 
Aircraft failure? The report does not support that conclusion. The report documents known maintenance issues that were not fixed more than 20 days before the crash. It also fails to dig into the pilot training program.
 
These and other facts in the report lead to conclusions other than the current focus on the aircraft as being the root cause of the crash, according to the Flight Safety Detectives.
 
They also discuss recent developments at Boeing and the impacts for airlines, employees, investors and the flying public.
 


Photo: Greg in the simulator at Boeing Headquarters in Seattle.

https://www.podbean.com/site/EpisodeDown...EA12E2CF84

---

MTF...P2 

[Kharon]

The link - HERE - takes you to an interesting analysis (opinion) of the how and why of the Ukrainian IA event. Worth the couple of minutes it takers to scan through.

[Peetwo]

Flight Safety Detectives breakdown the NTSC LionAir FL610 report - 

For those interested in  the linked podcast from the FSDs is definitely worth the time (two to three coffee/beers) to tune into, some of the revelations and real facts touched on will give you a whole new (reinforce old) perspective/OBS  on the ongoing Boeing 737 MAX imbroglio...

---

January 8, 2020
The (Real) Facts of the Indonesian Report
Episode 13

The Indonesian National Transportation Safety Committee (NTSC) final report regarding the crash of Lion Air Flight 610 continues to get a lot of media attention. Moving away from soundbites, John and Greg examine the actual words and facts found in the report and call out numerous false narratives.
 
Chaos in the cockpit? The report mentions that the sound of pages being turned in the operations manual could be heard on the cockpit voice recorder.
 
Aircraft failure? The report does not support that conclusion. The report documents known maintenance issues that were not fixed more than 20 days before the crash. It also fails to dig into the pilot training program.
 
These and other facts in the report lead to conclusions other than the current focus on the aircraft as being the root cause of the crash, according to the Flight Safety Detectives.
 
They also discuss recent developments at Boeing and the impacts for airlines, employees, investors and the flying public.
 


Photo: Greg in the simulator at Boeing Headquarters in Seattle.

https://www.podbean.com/site/EpisodeDown...EA12E2CF84

Not trying to beat the FSD boys drum here, however:

From Byron Bailey via the Oz:

In praise of automation, every pilot’s best friend

Aviation luminaries such as Captain Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger have publicly stated that a lack of manual flying skills is a major problem facing airlines. Of course former fighter pilots such as Sully would feel that way as that was what flying in a bygone era was all about.

However, the horse has bolted. The modern airline paradigm is about automation. Engagement of autopilot is mandated by most airlines straight after takeoff. Ninety per cent of the flight is done before engine start by programming the FMCs (flight management computers). Typical airliners like the Boeing 777 have three interlinked FMCs controlling three autopilots. Only one of each is necessary for flying the aircraft automatically, so the redundancy makes for a very safe operation.

En route the pilot workload is very low.

Approaching destination, the pilots just insert the arrival clearance received from air traffic control and enter into “the box” runway in use, wind and temperature. The automation will then fly the descent, approach and landing, controlling speed in the process by the auto-throttles.

The pilot has the option of taking over manually when fully established on short final and landing the aircraft. Australia, being somewhat backward aviation-wise, means that manual landings are the norm, due to lower quality airfield ILS (instrument landing systems).

Even engine failures are best handled by the automation as TAC (thrust asymmetry compensation) means the correct amount of rudder will be automatically inserted to keep the aircraft flying straight.

People will immediately throw in “well what about the two Boeing 737 MAX crashes?” As I found out when I visited Seattle last month and flew Boeing’s B737 Max simulator, the story is somewhat different. Mainstream media does not let facts get in the way of a good story.

I flew the whole Lion Air crash scenario, which was not difficult to handle, and then an ILS approach to a landing with the stick shaker going and using manual trim. This crash was the result of an unserviceable aircraft with a known fault being allowed to continue in service without rectification and the pilots not being informed of the problem.

The Ethiopian crash was different. The captain handled the runaway trim (manoeuvring characteristics automation system) correctly but then did not reduce engine thrust, which stayed at takeoff power N1 94.1 per cent, until the crash at very high speed six minutes after takeoff. Having very inexperienced copilots did not help in either incident.

Boeing has mandated that pilots do a full simulator-type rating on the B737 Max, which previously was just a “differences” course from previous B737 NGs. This is a good move as it will, if the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) does proper oversight, compel third-level airlines to do proper simulator training of its pilots.

The biggest problem by far is not lack of manual flying skills but lack of pilot training in managing the automation. Chuck Yeagers are not necessary in the modern airline world. Cerebral, computer-savvy pilots are.

Pilot error statistically accounts for nearly 95 per cent of aircraft accidents. Pilot error is actually caused by misjudgment. Automation, if properly managed, is not capable of a human error misjudgment.

Airline flying has never been so safe and statistically it is much safer than riding in a car.

MTF...P2 

[Peetwo]

Flight Safety Detectives breakdown the NTSC LionAir FL610 report - Episode 14 & 15

Lion Air Accident Report Analysis

ABOUT THIS EPISODE



Episode 14 Greg and John do a moment by moment analysis of the events leading up to the crash of Lion Air Flight 610. They share their takeaways following months of dissecting the Indonesian National Transportation Safety Committee (NTSC) final report regarding the crash. They put the facts in context – facts listed in the report as well as details that are missing. The MCAS system that is widely blamed for the crash was activated for only 10 seconds of the first 6 minutes of the 11:37 flight. The report shows that the pilot was controlling the plane. The Flight Safety Detectives find:

• The airplane was not airworthy for days prior to the crash
  
• Maintenance was not done properly
  
• Flight crew stresses: the captain was sick and the first officer was called in ahead of his regular schedule
  
• At takeoff, aircraft control warnings were triggered that are not analyzed for impact on the sequence of events
  
• Flight crew did not follow procedures
  
• Quality of the pilot training program is not examined
  

John and Greg bring in insights from other crashes to provide an unmatched analysis of this tragedy.

Link: https://www.listennotes.com/podcasts/fli...Ix6uy1Zoq/#

---

Fly the Way You Train, Train the Way You Fly

ABOUT THIS EPISODE



Episode 15 They have dissected the more than 300 pages of the Indonesian National Transportation Safety Committee (NTSC) final report on Lion Air Flight 610 and John and Greg reach a very different conclusion. The Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) was not the root cause, flight crew deficiencies are more likely the root cause. Once again, John and Greg stick to the facts presented in the report. They find that those facts are twisted in the report analysis as well as media coverage. This leads to misplaced blame on the MCAS system and, worse, missed opportunities to improve aviation safety. Calling the conclusion that MCAS was the cause a “leap of logic,” John and Greg instead look at documented issues with crew training and the direct parallels those issues have to what happened in the cockpit that fateful day.

Link: https://www.listennotes.com/podcasts/fli...BfrV8RIqx/#

MTF...P2 

[Peetwo]

Via Reuters:

---

Recording shows Iran knew immediately it had shot down plane: Zelenskiy

KIEV/DUBAI (Reuters) - A leaked audio recording of an Iranian pilot talking to the control tower in Tehran shows that Iran knew immediately it had shot down a Ukrainian airliner last month, despite denying it for days, Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy said.



On the recording, played on a Ukrainian television station late on Sunday, the pilot of another plane can be heard saying he saw “the light of a missile” in the sky before Ukrainian International Airways flight 752 crashed in an explosion.

Tehran blamed the Ukrainian authorities for leaking what it described as confidential evidence, and said it would no longer share material with Ukraine from the investigation into the crash.

All 176 people aboard the flight were killed when the plane crashed shortly after takeoff en route from Tehran to Kiev on Jan. 8.

The leaked audio “proves that the Iranian side knew from the start that our plane had been hit by a missile,” Zelenskiy said in a television interview.

“He says that ‘it seems to me that a missile is flying’, he says it in both Persian and English, everything is fixed there,” Zelenskiy said.

After denying blame for three days, Iran acknowledged shooting the plane down, saying it had done so by mistake while under high alert, hours after it had fired at U.S. targets in retaliation for a U.S. strike that killed an Iranian general.

Iran has said it worked as quickly as possible to determine what happened to the plane. The Iranian commander who first acknowledged the plane had been shot down said he informed the authorities on the day of the crash.

Iran has faced pressure from Ukraine and other countries whose citizens were on board the flight to send evidence abroad for international investigations.

The Iranian official in charge of accident investigations at Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization called it a “strange move” by Ukraine to release the confidential recording.

“This action by the Ukrainians led to us not sharing any more evidence with them,” the official, Hassan Rezaifar said, according to the semi-official Mehr news agency.

In the recording, a pilot for Aseman, an Iranian airline, can be heard radioing the control tower that he has seen what he believes is a missile.

“Is this an active area? There’s lights like a missile. Is there anything?” the pilot says.



FILE PHOTO: General view of the debris of the Ukraine International Airlines, flight PS752, Boeing 737-800 plane that crashed after take-off from Iran's Imam Khomeini airport, on the outskirts of Tehran, Iran January 8, 2020 is seen in this screen grab obtained from a social media video via REUTERS

“Nothing has been reported to us. What’s the light like?” the controller replies. The pilot says: “It’s the light of a missile.”

The control tower can be heard trying and failing to raise the Ukrainian airliner on the radio. The pilot of the Iranian plane then says he has seen “an explosion. In a very big way, we saw it. I really don’t know what it was.”

Ukraine International Airways said in a statement the recording provided “yet more proof that the UIA airplane was shot down with a missile, and there were no restrictions or warnings from dispatchers of any risk to flights of civilian aircraft in the vicinity of the airport.”

Rezaifar, the Iranian aviation official, said in the Mehr report that the Ukraine investigation team, as well as all other foreigners involved in the investigation, have left Iran.

---

MTF...P2 

[Peetwo]

C&C III: Homendy Final Media brief.

Note Homendy clearly outlines the next steps in the investigation process, including:- the release of the prelim report in 10 days (14 days from accident to release); the expected/approximate time frame for the investigation - 12 to 18 months; the fact that victims families have been fully briefed on what will be released in the media briefing; and from about 06:00 minutes she highlights that at anytime a serious safety issue has been identified will be accompanied by an immediate issuance of Safety Recommendations to the directly effected parties. Homendy then (from about 07:20) has a serious crack at the FAA about theirfailing to act on past safety recommendations related to both turbine powered rotorcraft certified for 6 or more pax and operating under part 91, 135 (ie mandatory installment of TAWS and CVR/FDR). 

(Note: It is also worth reading some of the 150 odd comments so far to get a sense of the respect both the public and industry has for the NTSB).

B&B adds his 2 bob's worth on Kobe Bryant smash and instrument flying - 

Via the Oz today:

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Instrument training a lifesaver for pilots



Last month was a sad time aviation wise what with the tragic loss of the C-130 firebomber tanker and her American crew, possibly from structural fatigue of the wing main spar.

The equally tragic helicopter crash involving basketball superstar Kobe Bryant was a very different kind of accident.

This helicopter was not certified for flight under IFR (instrument flight rules) conditions and the pilot was cleared by air traffic control to operate under SVFR (special visibility flight rules) where the visibility requirement is reduced from the normal three miles to one mile but the pilot must still remain clear of cloud (fog is just cloud in ground contact).

It appears the pilot may have inadvertently entered fog as he turned back, being unable to continue to the destination. ATC and flighttracker suggest that the helicopter suddenly descended in a turn and crashed at a high speed of 164 knots, above the maximum speed of 155 knots for a Sikorsky S76 helicopter.

It has long been known that it is very dangerous for a non-instrument-rated pilot to enter cloud as loss of control due to spatial disorientation will result fairly quickly.

The human inner ear cannot detect roll rates below a certain threshold so when an undetected slight roll develops, the nose will drop slightly causing a speed increase. The pilot, thinking the wings are level, pulls back on the controls which only tightens the turn ending up in loss of control in a death spiral.

Even experienced instrument-rated pilots can experience the “leans” (spatial disorientation) which only training can overcome.

This is particularly vulnerable on takeoff due to the acceleration affecting the function of the inner ear which can give false physical symptoms to the pilot who must only believe what his eyes are processing from his AI (attitude instrument).

In 2004, an Egyptian Boeing 737 took off from Sharm el-Sheikh Airport and crashed a couple of minutes later into the sea. The flight data recorder revealed the captain was losing a battle with a severe case of the leans and the cockpit voice recorder had urgent calls from the co-pilot of “bank” and “speed”.

A Mirage fighter pilot colleague of mine was lost after a formation takeoff on a dark starless night out over the sea with no horizon. Concentrating visually on the left wingtip of the formation lights of his element lead it was during the turn reversal roll through 80 degrees from 40 degree right bank to left bank at 450 knots and 1000 feet that he was heard to say “bugging out”. His inner ear would have been giving serious false sensations from the quick afterburner takeoff to 450 knots and tied in with the rolling motion meant when he broke formation he had only seconds to transition from heads up looking out to instrument flying.

The most important step in becoming a professional pilot is to get instrument rated through proper training.

Your life could depend on it.

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MTF...P2 

[Kharon]

As the epidemic of poor training slowly wends it's weary way into global recognition: - HERE -

And wait - there's more - HERE !

MTF - you bet.

[P7_TOM]

A nasty accident in Manila – Straitstimes – report. A sensible post on the UP from FDR – HERE cribbed as food for thought.

Nice to see brain engaged before opening gob.

[Peetwo]

Scary but stunning video footage of Aeroflot Flight SU1492 accident in Moscow last year -   

Via the Aerotime team...

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Russian authorities release Aeroflot Flight SU1492 video

Russian authorities released a video of the tragic Aeroflot Flight SU1492 crash-landing on May 5, 2019, showing the Superjet 100 aircraft landing in flames and the evacuation effort.

The video was uploaded to social media by the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation (IC) on April 15, 2020. The authority was investigated, and has now finished, the criminal case against the captain of Aeroflot Flight SU1492.

Evdokimov, a former military pilot, had a total of 6,800 flight hours, including 1,570 hours as a pilot of the Russian jet and 1,428 hours as the captain.

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MTF...P2 

[Kharon]

Jan 30, 2019, in Canada.

Beechcraft B200 accident. Well worth a read through.  -  HERE

Please note, today's date April 30, 2020. Not too shabby a turn around time for a very good, professional, valuable report. Nicely done Canada.

[Peetwo]

UP thread with Centaurus summary - 

Canadian accident King Air-200 loses both AH's in IMC and crashes

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https://www.tsb.gc.ca/eng/rapports-r.../a19w0015.html


This accident report on a King Air 200 is from Transport Safety Board Canada.

The copilots AH was u/s after engine start. Normally the MEL would preclude flight. The captain assumed the copilots AH could eventually come good with time and elected to continue with the flight. The first officer was unhappy about the captain's decision. After takeoff it was obvious the F/O's AH was inoperative and he again told the captain who reassured the F/O the AH would come good eventually. In fact the AH was unserviceable.

During en route cruise in IMC the captains AH also failed. The autopilot disconnected. The captain attempted to fly on partial panel in IMC.but soon became disorientated

The aircraft went into a steep spiral dive and broke clear of IMC at 2000 ft agl. The captain was unable to recover in time and the aircraft crashed at 400 knots.

MTF...P2

[Peetwo]

Prelim report PIA flight #PK8303 - 

Via Aviation Safety Net on Twitter: https://twitter.com/AviationSafety/statu...0648976385

AAIB Pakistan today released the preliminary report into the #PK8303 accident at Karachi. FDR data shows the undercarriage was selected down at  10.5 NM from the runway and selected up again at about 5 NM from the runway during the first approach. 

Plus:

The aircraft touched down with the undercarriage up and the engines scraping along the runway.

And:

The preliminary report on #PK8303 by AAIB Pakistan can be found at: https://www.caapakistan.com.pk/Upload/SI...IB-431.pdf

[url=https://www.caapakistan.com.pk/Upload/SIBReports/AAIB-431.pdf][/url]
MTF,,,P2