[Peetwo]

Update 22/04/17: CSIRO latest MH370 drift report. 

From 'that man', via the Weekend Oz:

MH370 drift modelling raises new search hopes for Malaysian airliner

• Ean Higgins
  
• The Australian
  
• 3:37PM April 21, 2017
  

CSIRO used drift modelling to pinpoint a possible new MH370 search zone.

The Australian Transport Safety Bureau has said new “drift modelling” research by the CSIRO has confirmed its view that the wreckage of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 lies in a proposed new search area of the Indian Ocean.

The announcement raises hopes that Malaysia, which under international law has responsibility for the investigation into the loss, might be persuaded to the resume the hunt for the Boeing 777 which was suspended in January.

“We are now even more confident that the aircraft is within the new search area identified and recommended in the MH370 First Principles Review,” the Australian Transport Safety Bureau said in a statement today, referring to the 25,000 sq km proposed new target zone identified by an international panel of experts in December.

The new research by the CSIRO involved releasing into the ocean off Tasmania replicas of the part of the wing called a flaperon which washed up on the French Indian Ocean island of Reunion in July 2015, which was subsequently confirmed to be from MH370.

Released at the same time were an actual flaperon from a Boeing 777 cut down to reflect the damage to that on the MH370 flaperon, and buoys like those the US had used to measure current and wind drift in the oceans over 30 years.

The objects were tracked by transmitters, and the study determined the actual flaperon was caught by the wind in a fashion different from the other objects, and moved at a different angle and speed.

The leader of the study, CSIRO scientist David Griffin, told The Australian this explained how the flaperon from MH370 could have reached Reunion and at the time it did, and confirmed a high certainty that the aircraft lies in the new proposed target zone to the north of the area covered in the original failed search.

MH370 disappeared with 239 passengers and crew on board on March 8, 2014, on a scheduled flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing, and automatic satellite tracking determined it ended up somewhere along a band in the southern Indian Ocean.

The original $200 million search of 120,000 square km of ocean led by the ATSB failed to find a trace of the aircraft.

Two independent drift modelling studies soon after the discovery of the flaperon, one by European researchers and one by scientists at the University of Western Australia, determined that the ATSB’s search zone was too far south and the aircraft more likely lay to the north.

While the ATSB is understood to be keen to search the proposed new 25,000 sq km zone, the three governments funding the hunt, Australia, Malaysia and China, agreed last year that it would not be resumed unless “credible” new evidence emerged pointing to a precise location of the aircraft.

Transport Minister Darren Chester today played down expectations the hunt might restart soon.

“I welcome the CSIRO report but it is important to note that it does not provide new evidence leading to a specific location of MH370,” Mr Chester said.

“This body of ‘drift modelling’ work, along with review of satellite imagery, forms part of the ongoing activities being undertaken by the ATSB in the search for MH370.”

“The CSIRO report has been provided to Malaysia for consideration in its ongoing investigation into the disappearance of MH370.”

Via the Oz edition of the Huffpost:

NEWS
CSIRO Report Hints At 'Most Likely' Location Of MH370 Wreckage
Australian scientists have pinpointed a new possible search zone.
21/04/2017 5:40 PM AEST | Updated 14 hours ago

Luke Cooper [/url] Associate Editor, HuffPost Australia

X

Australian scientists at the CSIRO say they have uncovered the "most likely" location of the MH370 aircraft wreckage, according to a new report released on Friday.

[url=http://www.atsb.gov.au/newsroom/news-items/2017/csiro-mh370-drift-modelling-report/]Research conducted by the CSIRO and presented in a report to the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) used ocean drift modelling and part of a Boeing 777 wing, called a flaperon, to determine the movement of the doomed Malaysia Airlines plane and pinpoint its possible location to a 25,000 sq km area north of the original search zone.

The findings support the conclusions of a First Principles Review report handed to the ATSB in November 2016, which recommended a new search area in the Indian Ocean, and provide an "added extra level of assurance" when it comes to locating the wreckage according to researchers.

Lead researcher for the report, Dr David Griffin of the CSIRO said the study using replica wing parts was conducted to test ocean movement in light of a flaperon from the actual MH370 wreckage which was found washed up on the shore of French island, La Reunion, in the Indian Ocean in July 2015.

"Testing an actual flaperon has added an extra level of assurance to the findings from our earlier drift modelling work," he said.

"We've found that an actual flaperon goes about 20 degrees to the left, and faster than the replicas, as we thought it might. The arrival of MH370's flaperon at La Reunion in July 2015 now makes perfect sense.

"We add both together in our model to simulate the drift across the ocean, then compare the results with observations of where debris was and wasn't found, in order to deduce the location of the aircraft."

While Griffin admits it remains difficult to pinpoint exactly where the wreckage may still be floating, he said the findings allow for more confidence when looking in the recommended new search area.

"We cannot be absolutely certain, but that is where all the evidence we have points us, and this new work leaves us more confident in our findings," he said.

Twitter link for David Griffin ABC video segment: ttps://twitter.com/abcnews/status/855311016946614272?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.huffingtonpost.com.au%2F2017%2F04%2F21%2Fcsiro-report-hints-at-most-likely-location-of-mh370-wreckage_a_22048939%2F

After the exhaustive search for the MH370 wreckage was officially called off in January,
Federal Minister for Infrastructure and Transport, Darren Chester responded to the CSIRO's findings on Friday saying he welcomes the report, but that "it does not provide new evidence" in the hunt for the missing plane.

"I welcome the CSIRO report but it is important to note that it does not provide new evidence leading to a specific location of MH370," he said in a statement.

"This body of 'drift modelling' work, along with review of satellite imagery, forms part of the ongoing activities being undertaken by the ATSB in the search for MH370.

"The CSIRO report has been provided to Malaysia for consideration in its ongoing investigation into the disappearance of MH370."

Authorities from Malaysia, Australia and China suspended the search after nearly three years of looking and Australia contributing $60 million to a $200-million-dollar underwater search effort, which was the largest in aviation history.



AFP/Getty Images Part of the MH370 wreckage that was found on the French island of La Reunion in July 2015.

MH370 vanished on March 8, 2014, with 239 people on board, sparking a massive, multi-million dollar and multi-nation search for the plane over a 120,000 sq km stretch of the Indian Ocean.

Six Australians were on board.

In July 2016, authorities warned the search would be suspended if no new results were found, which a statement in January confirmed. To date no new information has been discovered to determine the specific location of the aircraft.

Traces of the plane have been found washed up on the island country Mauritius, the French island Reunion and an island off the coast of Tanzania.

Timeline of missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370
March 8, 2014: MH370 flight departs from Kuala Lumpur, en route to Beijing, and loses contact with air traffic control
March 8,2014: A full-scale international search and rescue operation begins. Authorities target waters between Vietnam and Malaysia.
March 13, 2014: Search fails to find trace of MH370 where Chinese satellites spotted three "floating objects" in the ocean.
March 16, 2014: Malaysia calls for help from 25 countries, as search expands across 11 countries.
March 18, 2014: Australia leads new search for wreckage 3,000 kilometres south-west of Perth.
April 4, 2014: Malaysian authorities release transcript of pilot communication with the final words "all right, good night".
April 6, 2014: Black box was thought to be detected off Perth with signals detected, however signals fell silent days later. No trace of the missing plane was found.
April 30, 2014: Aerial search ends and the preliminary report is released the following day.
June 10, 2014: Search coordinator says the search could take more than two years.
October 8, 2014: Search moves south, off the Western Australian coast after Prime Minister Tony Abbott confirmed an underwater search would take place in September. Australia signed a $50 million contract to use two vessels for the search.
January 29, 2015: Malaysia announced all 239 passengers and crew are presumed dead, and MH370 declared an accident.
March 7, 2015: Malaysia's transport minister says new plan will be formulated and data will be re-examined.
July 29, 2015: Debris found on French Indian Ocean island of La Reunion.
May 10, 2016: Fragment of plane wing found is in Mauritius, and later identified as part if MH370. It is one of 33 pieces suspected to be from the missing flight.
July 22, 2016: Officials announce the search for MH370 will be called off if plane is not found by December.
January 17, 2016: Search for MH370 officially called off.

Finally from creepy Creedy (via asiacruisenews.com) a reminder of Hoody's fatal blunder with MH370:

Air Safety Investigator Rejects MH370 Staff Claims.
 


Steve Creedy -editor


19 Apr 2017
Australian Transport Safety Bureau says no warning was issued to staff.

>
A scene from the MH370 search.

Australian air safety investigators have rejected a newspaper claim  “draconian legislation’’ was invoked in a decision to refuse a freedom of information request for material on the search for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.

The Australian newspaper claimed the Australian Transport Safety Bureau had warned that employees who provided the information to the public or a court could face two years in jail.

But the ATSB said it issued no such warning.

“The Transport Safety Investigation Act 2003 (TSI Act) applies to ATSB investigations and reports, requiring investigators to protect evidence from disclosure other than in accordance with performing their functions under the Act,’’ the air safety investigator said in a statement in its “correcting the record” section.

“Consistent with international standards, the ATSB does not publish all the documents forming part of the investigation or report. This is to ensure cooperation and the future free flow of information to safety investigations.”

The newspaper has been attempting to use freedom of Information laws to get hold of the opinions international experts, including from the US and UK air crash agencies, Boeing, aerospace group Thales, and British satellite group Inmarsat, about satellite data used to track the course of the aircraft.

It says it was initially told the information could not be released because it “could cause damage to international relations of the commonwealth’’.  A subsequent review by ATSB chief commissioner Greg Hood cited the TSI Act.

The ATSB used the satellite data and other evidence to conclude the plane was most likely uncontrolled when it crashed into the sea.  This runs counter to a theory frequently run by The Australian that the flight ended in a controlled ditching.

The bureau also questioned a suggestion in the April 17 article that some officers were having second thoughts about its end-of-flight scenario.

“The ATSB is not aware of any officers who have concerns with the ATSB’s reported findings in this regard,’’ it said, noting the claim was made without any supporting evidence.

“The ATSB’s work in the search for MH370 has always been characterised by a willingness to listen to new ideas, and to apply all the known facts to lead the underwater search.

“The ATSB does not make any statement lightly, nor does it approach any issue with pre-conceived conclusions.’’

IMO this is why Hoody and the ATSB are a shot duck on anymore involvement with possible future plans to resume the MH370 SIO search. That and the fact that the CSIRO/ATSB boffins have now comprehensively confirmed that they got it wrong and ducked up the 1st $200 million search...  
MTF...P2