[Peetwo]

Captain's Log 20.02.17: HSSS archive entry 170220.

Victor on Godfrey & Hampton. -  

Link references:

Godfrey - The Probable End Point of MH370
Holland - The Use of Burst Frequency Offsets in the Search for MH370

More Analyses of MH370 Data
by Victor Iannello Posted: Thursday, 2/16/2017

Predicted location of debris in July 2015 from a crash site of 30S latitude along 7th arc.

...In the past week, there were two serious technical papers released that discuss evidence surrounding MH370 and with implications on where it may have crashed along the 7th arc.  The two papers demonstrate that there is still significant disagreement about how to interpret some critical technical data...

Chillit on Godfrey - 

Godfrey:: Probable MH370 Endpoint?

Posted on February 20, 2017 by Mike Chillit

A copy of Richard Godfrey’s recent paper on the possible location of MH370’s fuselage is reprinted below. I have endeavored to make it verbatim, but I cannot assure that because the source document is not publicly published in the usual sense, and is therefore subject to modification without notice.

It is helpful to have this perspective from Mr. Godfrey. It caught my eye largely because it makes no mention of NOAA’s recent drift study that appears to place the likely location of the fuselage much farther north. It is unfortunate that there has been so little effort to link and build upon prior efforts, largely by authors who refuse to cite the work of others.

In any event, there are serious issues with Mr. Godfrey’s analysis that need to be addressed in some manner:

1. Drift simulation based on incorrect drift dynamics is almost certainly incorrect;
   
2. MH370’s flaperon was FOUND 508 days after March 8, 2014; it is NOT KNOWN how long the flaperon was in Mauritius / Reunion waters before it was reported to police;
   
3. The actual average drift time from the Final Arc to Madagascar is only 227 days, less than half of the drift time estimated by Mr. Godfrey;
   
4. The last two drift charts depict drift patterns that do not exist immediately north of the Circumpolar Current;
   
5. Mr. Godfrey’s paper should be considered an interesting beginning; not a final work product.
   

The following Excel excerpt identifies 14 NOAA satellite-tracked drifters that physically crossed the FINAL ARC at the identified location, and ended their respective drift paths at the indicated GPS (~50°E longitude). Anyone anywhere in the world with access to a computer can pull the drift records on these buoys and check the accuracy of that information.

Efforts that characterize drift time as something larger than about 227 days all tend to use a “Horseshoes and Hand Grenades” approach to measuring drift time. For example, they all use hypothetical catchment boxes or “plots” to identify drifters that may have no relevance to the study. And in that way, they grossly overestimate drift time. [USDA pioneered the use of “Plots” decades ago and, in the process, Fisher Statistics evolved.
But USDA’s plot construct did not float or move around. The concept is not entirely applicable to sea surface drift models. NOAA’s recent efforts have the same problem.]


Excel Excerpt 1 of 1

Mr. Godfrey’s full article begins below.

P2 - Excerpt of Godfrey conclusion:

Conclusion

The drift analysis appears to support a probable end point of MH370 around 30°S near the 7th Arc. This fits with a late final major turn south at 19:36 UTC and a flight at the normal cruise speed of 0.84 Mach until fuel exhaustion. There is a good fit to the satellite data and a good fit to a great circle path toward Wilkins Runway (YWKS) as the final waypoint.

The drift analysis also explains the reason why MH370 floating debris originating around 30°S near the 7th Arc could end up in Reunion and South Africa with barnacles via tracks that pass through sea water between 19°C and 25°C and end up in Madagascar, Mozambique and Tanzania without barnacles via tracks that pass through sea water above 25°C.

On 19th August 2014 07:37 Barry Carlson of the Independent Group posted on the ATSB Blog: “Strange as it may seem, the ATSB assessment for the Priority Bathymetric Survey is centred exactly where the GC track to YWKS crosses the 7th arc. If YWKS has never featured in your considerations, then I assume it would now be a further confidence booster in validating the work done to date.”

Martin Dolan, Chief Commissioner responded on 20th August 2014 09:13: “Thank you, Barry, for your insight. You will be pleased to hear that the search strategy group did consider YWKS as a possible waypoint. The location of the search area however, is based on the analysis of the satellite communications data.”

 Off Beaker's blog - which strangely still exists on the ATSB website... -  here is the full text of the exchange between Carlson & Beaker:

Barry Carlson said...

Some time ago, I came to the conclusion that 9M-MRO had turned to the north prior to the 1839 BFO resulting from an unanswered incoming phone call. The aircraft tracked toward waypoint IGREX then west into the Chennai FIR before turning south and passing near to or over Car Nicobar (VOCX) and arriving on the 1941 arc about 90NM to the south.

I reasoned that from about that point, the Wilkins Runway, Antarctica (YWKS) waypoint had been entered into the FMC, and the LNAV provided the Great Circle track.
http://countjustonce.com/mh370/mh370-map-1.html
( P2 - Changed link:http://mh370.countjustonce.com/)

Strange as it may seem, the ATSB assessment for the Priority Bathymetric Survey is centered exactly where the GC track to YWKS crosses the 7th arc. If YWKS has never featured in your considerations, then I assume it would now be a further confidence booster in validating the work done to date.
August 19, 2014 07:37

Martin Dolan, Chief Commissioner (author) said...

Thank you, Barry, for your insight. You will be pleased to hear that the search strategy group did consider YWKS as a possible waypoint. The location of the search area however, is based on the analysis of the satellite communications data.
August 20, 2014 09:13

MTF...P2