Playing the odds.
Trains are famous, the world over for ‘On Time Performance’ and people love it, old Mussolini made a political career out it. But consider the advantages a train system has; no conflicting traffic; weather not a big problem, dedicated line to destination and, barring accident or breakdown, apart from the human element, trains should run like clockwork.
The common or garden Omnibus service has other problems to contend with; traffic for starters, the weather, road conditions and people fumbling and stumbling on and off. At 0600 o’clock in any city your ‘bus’ will, like as not, be on time and may even meet it’s schedule and arrive on time. After about 0730 – all bets are off, mayhem rules.
Such is the reality of mass ‘public transport’. Delays and frustration are routine; but you never see a bus driver racing to meet a schedule, they drive carefully, make up what time they may in the prevailing conditions and have no worries about returning to the depot ‘late’. They have no curfew to concern them, no great advertisement PR pressure to meet OTP; the bus was late – so what: they did the best they could, with what they had, safely, calmly and without pressure from artificial demands to be ‘on time’.
An airline is, essentially public transport with ‘complications’. Many, if not most of those ‘complications’ are based against this mystical thing dubbed ‘safety’. There are many, many more things which can lead an aircraft to tragedy, than those faced by the 0610 bus to town. Legally, technically and operationally, despatching an aircraft is not a simple as sending a bus or train on it’s journey. In short: it takes more ‘time’ to achieve a departure. The public would be staggered if they knew the amount of variables which must be managed, before they even board the aircraft. The complicated spells which must be cast before hand and the conjuring must be properly managed before the doors close.
So time becomes ‘precious’; for all the wrong reasons. Management demand ‘OTP’ and reasons are demanded when this best estimate is not achieved. Deflecting the reason for ‘delay’ has been an art form practiced by aircrew since Pontius. This is wrong; OTP is not a ‘screaming’ need; if it is to become one, then, schedules must become ‘realistic’. Turn around times extended to suit the anticipated, sensible ‘worst case’. The ‘cake eaters’ want the aircraft in the air as often as possible, as full as possible and on time, every time. Much subtle and not so subtle pressure is brought to bear on those who must meet the expectations and demands of ‘management’. This produces a ‘rush’ culture.
Good skippers are immune to this urgent pressure; a quick look at the holding point or a listen to the ATC ground frequency will provide a clear picture of how long it will be before becoming airborne; so, with checks complete, there is time to relax, watch and wait for the ‘paper-work’ to turn up. Now the crew maybe relaxed enough; but behind the scenes there is turmoil; rush, rush rush, push, shove and clatter. This is ‘Murphy’s playground and he revels in it.
This OTP pony-pooh, combined with curfew, mixed in with ATC delays, added to poor flying conditions, added to, stressed, fatigued ground and aircrew; slowly stirred into ATC fatigue issues is a recipe for disaster; a pointless, tragic, disaster which need not have occurred had the ‘pressure’ to keep a nonsensical schedule not been hyped up to an essential priority.
When you’ve time to spare, travel by air. Gut busting and rushing about have caused more accidents than being ten minutes behind ‘schedule’ ever did; and Murphy has always ruled supreme. Slow down, calm down and schedule realistically, before someone get hurt.
Aye well; if I’m late tonight the 2200 hrs bus will probably be running late, i.e. on time in real time, (traffic) so no worries. Toot - toot.
Trains are famous, the world over for ‘On Time Performance’ and people love it, old Mussolini made a political career out it. But consider the advantages a train system has; no conflicting traffic; weather not a big problem, dedicated line to destination and, barring accident or breakdown, apart from the human element, trains should run like clockwork.
The common or garden Omnibus service has other problems to contend with; traffic for starters, the weather, road conditions and people fumbling and stumbling on and off. At 0600 o’clock in any city your ‘bus’ will, like as not, be on time and may even meet it’s schedule and arrive on time. After about 0730 – all bets are off, mayhem rules.
Such is the reality of mass ‘public transport’. Delays and frustration are routine; but you never see a bus driver racing to meet a schedule, they drive carefully, make up what time they may in the prevailing conditions and have no worries about returning to the depot ‘late’. They have no curfew to concern them, no great advertisement PR pressure to meet OTP; the bus was late – so what: they did the best they could, with what they had, safely, calmly and without pressure from artificial demands to be ‘on time’.
An airline is, essentially public transport with ‘complications’. Many, if not most of those ‘complications’ are based against this mystical thing dubbed ‘safety’. There are many, many more things which can lead an aircraft to tragedy, than those faced by the 0610 bus to town. Legally, technically and operationally, despatching an aircraft is not a simple as sending a bus or train on it’s journey. In short: it takes more ‘time’ to achieve a departure. The public would be staggered if they knew the amount of variables which must be managed, before they even board the aircraft. The complicated spells which must be cast before hand and the conjuring must be properly managed before the doors close.
So time becomes ‘precious’; for all the wrong reasons. Management demand ‘OTP’ and reasons are demanded when this best estimate is not achieved. Deflecting the reason for ‘delay’ has been an art form practiced by aircrew since Pontius. This is wrong; OTP is not a ‘screaming’ need; if it is to become one, then, schedules must become ‘realistic’. Turn around times extended to suit the anticipated, sensible ‘worst case’. The ‘cake eaters’ want the aircraft in the air as often as possible, as full as possible and on time, every time. Much subtle and not so subtle pressure is brought to bear on those who must meet the expectations and demands of ‘management’. This produces a ‘rush’ culture.
Good skippers are immune to this urgent pressure; a quick look at the holding point or a listen to the ATC ground frequency will provide a clear picture of how long it will be before becoming airborne; so, with checks complete, there is time to relax, watch and wait for the ‘paper-work’ to turn up. Now the crew maybe relaxed enough; but behind the scenes there is turmoil; rush, rush rush, push, shove and clatter. This is ‘Murphy’s playground and he revels in it.
This OTP pony-pooh, combined with curfew, mixed in with ATC delays, added to poor flying conditions, added to, stressed, fatigued ground and aircrew; slowly stirred into ATC fatigue issues is a recipe for disaster; a pointless, tragic, disaster which need not have occurred had the ‘pressure’ to keep a nonsensical schedule not been hyped up to an essential priority.
When you’ve time to spare, travel by air. Gut busting and rushing about have caused more accidents than being ten minutes behind ‘schedule’ ever did; and Murphy has always ruled supreme. Slow down, calm down and schedule realistically, before someone get hurt.
Aye well; if I’m late tonight the 2200 hrs bus will probably be running late, i.e. on time in real time, (traffic) so no worries. Toot - toot.