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Hoody moves away from Beaker's BASR -

At the Estimates extra session on Tuesday and at the triple-A convention, Hoody revealed the new philosophy of the ATSB being a data driven, sharing, caring, predictive transport safety watchdog..

Via AA online:

ATSB seeks to be more data driven

November 23, 2016 By australianaviation.com.au

Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) chief commissioner Greg Hood says the greater use of data to identify trends will be a big focus in the…

“My goal is to utilise data to such an extent that we continue evolving from being a reactive organisation, to a proactive organisation and ultimately to being a predictive organisation.”

   
Not sure if Hoody will be able to pull it off, as there is some firmly entrenched 'Beaker school' employees whose self-interest & survival would favour keeping the current status quo. Much like the CASA situation, the cultural shift required to move from a non-independent top-cover agency to the Hoody 'wished' for model will require some serious culling - good luck with that Hoody...

Within the Hoodlum RAAA speech he used the example of the Mildura fog duck-up in regards to the > 15yr identified safety issue on unforecasted/unpredicted wx phenomena causing a safety occurrence:

..One area of study currently underway that reflected the ATSB’s push to, in Hood’s words “interrogate the data more aggressively”, concerned weather forecasts and observations.

The ATSB study was looking at how the reliability of weather forecasts affected the ability of flight crews to conduct a safe landing.

There have been a number of “unforecast weather episodes” relating to flights into major Australian ports that have led to unforeseen diversions, holding and “in some cases landing below the published minima” in recent times, Hood said.

“By understanding the relationships between weather reliability and aircraft operations, we will be able to essentially predict higher risk time periods and locations and drive down the probability of an accident occurring,” Hood said.

“Our research is seeking to understand how the reliability of weather forecast affects the ability of the flight crew to conduct a safe landing.

“Compared to Europe and North America, weather in Australia is pretty good and the likelihood of an accident happening because of weather conditions unsuitable for landing is much lower but in making it even lower, the probability of a major accident happening reduces considerably.”

 
The following is I believe a reference to Dave W's research currently underway:

Finally some Reason in the ATSB nuthouse
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Now with all that in mind I was intrigued to find a very much related ATSB news item released today that almost (but not quite - ) mentions the Mildura cock-up and PelAir cover-up in the context of an ATSB Officer's soon to be conducted research paper:

Ground-breaking aviation research to reduce unforecast weather risks

ATSB senior research analyst Dave Wilson is working on a research investigation that will raise awareness of potential weather-related risks among pilots and also examine the effectiveness of rules that have been in place for more than 30 years.



Weather planning rules in Australia are unique compared to countries in Europe and North America. Because weather in Australia is generally good, risks are very low. But when weather is unsuitable for landing, these differences can have a real world effect on aircraft operations. It is these effects that Dave’s research aims to quantify.

A number of unforecast weather episodes relating to flights into major Australian airports have led to unforeseen diversions, holding and, in some cases, landing below published safe limits. Dave’s research is seeking to understand how the reliability of weather forecasts affects the ability of flight crew to conduct safe landings.

“I want to help decrease the likelihood of pilots being exposed to unexpected and unsuitable conditions for landing,” Dave said. “The likelihood of an accident happening because of conditions unsuitable for landing is low. But in making it even lower, the probability of a major accident happening reduces considerably.

“Initially I’m looking at Mildura and Adelaide airports. At Mildura, 99 per cent of the time, the weather is suitable to land a large aircraft. But based on the data I’ve looked at, there is still a remote possibility you may have an unreliable forecast. With the volume of air traffic, this could affect up to four aircraft per year.

“If you look at Adelaide, the chances of a single flight crew being exposed to an unreliable forecast are lower. However, when you take into account fluctuations in weather reliability, and the aircraft traffic arrival patterns (around 50,000 per year), the potential to result in a catastrophic accident increases. That’s what we want to avoid.

“If you’re in the air and you get to the point of last safe diversion—where you’ll be committed to landing at the planned destination—if the current forecast predicts marginal conditions, questions are raised as to whether continuing to the planned destination or diverting to an alternate destination should be required. This scenario has been a particular focus of this research.”

Dave has a vested interest in his research. Several actually. He’s a pilot who first flew solo when he was a 15-year-old student at Caringbah High in Sydney—well before he could legally drive. The opportunity of subsidised flying with the Australian Air Force Cadets was too good to knock back. He has since flown aerobatics out of Bankstown Airport but has undertaken little flying over past two years while pursuing this research.

Dave also has degrees in Aeronautical Engineering and Physics from Sydney University. It was there he attended a guest lecture by Pierre Blais from the Directorate of Defence Aviation and Air Force Safety (DDAAFS), which set him on a path to the ATSB.

“It was then that I thought investigating aviation safety would provide the ultimate career path for me. I find it both meaningful and challenging,” Dave said.

The research was initially going to secure Dave a Master’s degree. But he is now upping the ante and aiming to pursue a Doctorate. A stumbling block is finding reviewers with sufficient expertise in a related field. When you’re breaking new ground, this is often the case.

After first working at the Department of Infrastructure as a vehicle compliance engineer, Dave came to the ATSB to embrace his love of aircraft, engineering and how things work. Now with six years under his belt, Dave is also considering his future. “I’m happy as long as I’m being challenged,” he said. “But after this research is completed, I wouldn’t mind also undertaking a broader range of transport safety investigations.”

Research on Adelaide and Mildura aerodromes is expected to be published by the end of 2016. Progressive reports for each major aerodrome in Australia and four of our remote island aerodromes (Norfolk, Cocos, Christmas and Lord Howe) will be progressively released over the next year or two.
 



Last update 18 October 2016 

    
No direct criticism of Dave here, however I find it deeply disturbing that it has taken 16+ years with an identified (normalised deficiency) safety issue that has been causal to a number of min fuel occurrences & accidents, and we are just now exploring the regulatory  and BOM contributory factors that are part of the causal chain to these incidents and accidents...

It will be interesting to see how Hoody goes about implementing this major paradigm shift within the ATSB, because IMO there is a lot more at stake here than the fluffy words that Hood is currently espousing and if he is not successful it could be the death knell of the ATSB as we know it -

Finally I find it fascinating that Hoody's goal for the ATSB being a more data driven 'proactive..and ultimately predictive' transport safety watchdog, very closely matches the aims, philosophy and purpose for implementing a SSP under ICAO Annex 19 -  
 
MTF...P2
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