[Peetwo]

Captain's Log 15.11.16: Catching up...

Mike Chillit disappointment -

Off MC's 7th Arc blog 5 days ago:

MH370: How To Say It?
Posted on November 10, 2016 by Mike Chillit

A few weeks ago, I finally reached the point where I was willing to fund a very limited search of the Batavia / Zenith areas for MH370; on my own without help from anyone else. The advantages were that it would have been quick and simple; no one hovering over my shoulder to second-guess and distract. My effort would go straight to the area of highest probability based on an enormous amount of research and attempt to confirm a debris field. Then, my reasoning went, if that proved successful, it would be turned over to Malaysia or others to complete the task.

I had lined up a great company with decades of experience, and previous successes in that same area (HMAS Sydney). They know that ocean as well as anyone; better than most.

But it was not to be. When I set about confirming the exact coordinates of the 7th Arc, I discovered that it is not stable. The BTO ping ring data it is built on is highly variable. Even worse, Inmarsat has only given us a small “calibration” sample of BTO bias data values that were taken from the tarmac half an hour prior to the plane’s final flight. That raises the very real prospect that in-flight BTO data is not at all similar; that variability is even more disparate at altitude. And, unfortunately, neither Inmarsat nor ATSB will provide the actual BTO bias data during the flight. What are they hiding? Who knows. Hopefully there will eventually be criminal probes of several actors who have mostly impeded all efforts to conduct a competent professional search.

So it is the extraordinary variability in BTO data that tells me there is no practical way to go in with a less-than-5-million exploration. Anything that is done, if it is done correctly, will be expensive. Not as expensive as Australia reports it has been, but a lot more than $5 million. I currently estimate that the minimum search area will have to cover 19,000 square kilometers. And by the time the plane is located, the area scanned could be close to 50,000 or 60,000 square kilometers. There are ways of reducing coverage without substantially harming confidence in results, but is it a risk we want to take when we don’t really know how variable BTO data is at altitude?

In any event, even with a team of experienced and highly competent salvage experts and oceanographers, the total expense may be $50 million or more and that is not something I can do on my own. So I have reluctantly thanked those who worked with me to come up with a cost effective approach, and I have to now set this effort aside until a responsible alternative effort comes along.

I admit that I am deeply angry with Australia. From my point of view, it has mounted the most incompetent effort known to man based on the most primitive “faith” in a metric that has never been used before. There are 4,000 km of 7th Arc between Java and -40°S. All of it was equally likely when the underwater phase began in October 2014. But when the flaperon washed ashore in July 2015, its almost certain original location shifted to the greater Exmouth / Geraldton areas. That is probably where it is. That is not a street-corner prophet’s prediction. It is based on an enormous amount of data and analysis by multiple parties in multiple nations.

But instead of accepting the changing likelihood of the plane’s location, Australia has bitterly and stupidly clung to its now thoroughly disgraced “Penguinville” endpoint.
In any event, I cannot continue to beat my head against a wall in the hope Australia will finally see the light and go home. It has become little more than a squatter: camped out in the single most unlikely location on the planet, hoping everyone will go home and leave it to eventually claim, “we came, we tried, alas, it is not here”.

And so, regrettably, I am suspending my efforts to monitor the effort to find the plane.
I have vague hopes that the new President of the United States will see the importance of finding the aircraft… not just to put it to rest for tortured families… but to know once and for all if it was a terror attack, a malfunction, risky cargo, or something else.

I have previously published many maps of the proposed Phase II search area. Here is another. The parallelogram is the required search area for a single possible terminal area. A competent search will move that box along about a 600 km segment of the 7th Arc in the Batavia / Zenith areas until crews locate the debris field. They could get lucky and find it quickly, but let’s face it, the data we have to work with is beyond rustic. We should not put much faith in luck. We need to be patient and determined, and we need to continue to reassess the plane’s likely terminal location. No more primping, scrimping, or pimping.

Very disappointing for MC after all that effort
But then this AM, along with the Super moon, a chink of light came beaming across the Pacific ocean, across our Great Divide, over Uluru and down into the great depths of the IO, at around about the Zenith plateau -



Following MC's suggestion to contact him, this was his reply to my 'please explain' query:

..Still working on details myself, Pain. I did a slow burn for days after giving up. Just decided I know when we can start, it is not very expensive, let’s give it a try. The company is very reputable, and I believe if we beat the bushes a little, others will step out an join the effort. Money should not be much of a problem. And I may try to design it to accommodate a separate vessel for NOK. Not sure yet...

Hat's off to MC, he may yet not get it off the ground and on the water but damn he will give it a good shake. So Mike message from PAIN - GO YOU GOOD THING!

MTF...P2