Over on JeffWise, Oleksandr said (at October 6, 2016 at 9:30 AM)
" I have abandoned further detailed studies and refinements of the magnetic modes because it was noted that such modes do not exist on B777."
My "copper mate's" take on that type of "closing off a "line of enquiry"" is this.
From a "detective's" point of view, it is a "dangerous assumption" to rule any "criminal methodology" out, simply on the basis of it not being "obviously" possible.
In this case, just because an autopilot "mode" does not exist on the B-777, does not mean that it was not "deliberately piloted" in "effectively" the same, or "very similar" way.
I can think of two scenarios, for "deliberate action" by a "live perpetrator", that anyone with even "basic" knowledge could use. The perpetrator does not have to be a B-777 rated pilot. Both are simple, and in keeping with KISS principles.
Scenario One = "Some chosen = Desired, "Magnetic HEADING".
Methodology: = Simply put autopilot in LNAV, and simply adjust the heading select knob every now and again, against the magnetic compass on the windscreen center post. So long as he (or she) regularly adjusts (say at ten or fifteen minute intervals) the heading select knob, to keep the magnetic compass reading what he (or she) wants, their "objective" is achieved.
Scenario Two = "Some chosen = Desired, "CELESTIAL OBJECT".
Methodology: = Simply put autopilot in LNAV, and simply adjust the heading select knob every now and again, to keep the aircraft "HEADING" straight at that chosen "Celestial Object", every ten or fifteen minutes, as above.
In either scenario, "precisely where" the aircraft ends up (in terms of Lat / Lon) may not actually matter to the perpetrator. It may have been both "sufficient" and "necessary" that the final "region" of the crash is only in a "ballpark" area, and NOT at a location that could be "deduced" or "determined" by the official investigation, or US !!
After all, there is a BIG difference between "disappearing", but using a method that could later be "worked out", and thus leading to the eventual 'finding' of the aircraft, and "vanishing", in a way that is "unsolvable", so as to ENSURE that the aircraft is never found.
I go with the later "vanishing" objective, ENSURING, that the aircraft is never found.
My theory is Scenario Two.
My "Celestial Object" of "choice", is "CANOPUS", as I have stated before.
" I have abandoned further detailed studies and refinements of the magnetic modes because it was noted that such modes do not exist on B777."
My "copper mate's" take on that type of "closing off a "line of enquiry"" is this.
From a "detective's" point of view, it is a "dangerous assumption" to rule any "criminal methodology" out, simply on the basis of it not being "obviously" possible.
In this case, just because an autopilot "mode" does not exist on the B-777, does not mean that it was not "deliberately piloted" in "effectively" the same, or "very similar" way.
I can think of two scenarios, for "deliberate action" by a "live perpetrator", that anyone with even "basic" knowledge could use. The perpetrator does not have to be a B-777 rated pilot. Both are simple, and in keeping with KISS principles.
Scenario One = "Some chosen = Desired, "Magnetic HEADING".
Methodology: = Simply put autopilot in LNAV, and simply adjust the heading select knob every now and again, against the magnetic compass on the windscreen center post. So long as he (or she) regularly adjusts (say at ten or fifteen minute intervals) the heading select knob, to keep the magnetic compass reading what he (or she) wants, their "objective" is achieved.
Scenario Two = "Some chosen = Desired, "CELESTIAL OBJECT".
Methodology: = Simply put autopilot in LNAV, and simply adjust the heading select knob every now and again, to keep the aircraft "HEADING" straight at that chosen "Celestial Object", every ten or fifteen minutes, as above.
In either scenario, "precisely where" the aircraft ends up (in terms of Lat / Lon) may not actually matter to the perpetrator. It may have been both "sufficient" and "necessary" that the final "region" of the crash is only in a "ballpark" area, and NOT at a location that could be "deduced" or "determined" by the official investigation, or US !!
After all, there is a BIG difference between "disappearing", but using a method that could later be "worked out", and thus leading to the eventual 'finding' of the aircraft, and "vanishing", in a way that is "unsolvable", so as to ENSURE that the aircraft is never found.
I go with the later "vanishing" objective, ENSURING, that the aircraft is never found.
My theory is Scenario Two.
My "Celestial Object" of "choice", is "CANOPUS", as I have stated before.