[Peetwo]

"...The ATSB may have fallen into the trap of asking the kind of plod that seem to bubble to the top as experts. That’s assuming that they asked a real 777 pilot..."

That to me seems to be the strange disconnect with all this, the so called experts being referred to by the ATSB appear to be faceless men & women - why?? Who are they and what practical and/or operational experience do they have?? Do they have the bona fides of PAIN's very own #P777?? Or in the ATC world that of a Paul Howard, who I see has put out yet another excellent, common sense look at the bollocks revolving around the presumed starting point for MH370's turn towards the SIO - A unifying theory. MH370 - that even a layman could manage to get their head around...

Occam’s razor is a good method of problem solving until human factors muddy the waters. They’ve always been at the back of my mind but I’ve tried not to let them interfere with what I thought was a matter of factual problem solving.


The problem from the beginning has been the inconsistent information from Malaysia and by looking at what I consider to be realistic human factors, can now see what might have happened. Prepare to be bored because I don’t have a sexy conspiracy theory involving gold, remote hijacking or naughty Russian involvement. {Pure gold Paul, excellent stuff.. }

   
Paul even seems to have captured some of the Heff's colourful language in trying to review the bollocks that the Malaysians are expecting us to swallow.. :

PelAir & Beyond: A: “cover-up or a balls-up”..?

I’ve been swinging between cover-up and cock-up and have now decided that it’s both. Malaysian military have been trying to cover their initial ineptitude by making subsequent claims in a state of panic. I suspect their radar was inadequately analyzed, known traffic not eliminated and a false trace led us up the Malacca Straits. Rivalry and blame between civil and military could easily have prevented the co-operation required for exchange of information.

 
For Paul's efforts to sort the wheat from the chaff or the facts from the bollocks, I think a coupla choccy frogs are in order....

MTF...P2
 

P9 quote: "..Amongst the screaming, shouting, chest beating, hair pulling and bitch slapping; the calm, measured, professional voices of common sense and logic can be clearly heard.  Paul Howard's amongst them.   Bravo that man.."  

Courtesy of Paul Howard's blog.. A unifying theory. MH370 ..is reproduced here.. :

...Previous Interim Report radar analysis;

http://www.paulhowardplays.com/blog/mh37...d-they-see

  I’ve been asked what my thoughts were and replied that I reserved judgment until I’d had an in depth look at the contrail theory. It was an important piece of work and not to be dismissed out of hand. Had a northern contrail been visible, it would have given the precise turn into the SIO and further refinement of BTO/BFO and fuel burn. 

By reading the discussions of infrared satellite contrail detection, I’ve now ruled that out and returned to the information I already have. What I haven’t ruled out is the southern distrail and suspect that information has already been considered by the JIT.


Occam’s razor is a good method of problem solving until human factors muddy the waters. They’ve always been at the back of my mind but I’ve tried not to let them interfere with what I thought was a matter of factual problem solving.

The problem from the beginning has been the inconsistent information from Malaysia and by looking at what I consider to be realistic human factors, can now see what might have happened. Prepare to be bored because I don’t have a sexy conspiracy theory involving gold, remote hijacking or naughty Russian involvement.


Following the timeline of what we’ve been told has given me a picture and by introducing human factors it becomes clear to me what may have happened.

Societies are divided into factions and so are organizations. An air traffic control organization is divided between civil and military and there are rivalries between those elements. Airspace division is contentious between the users and resolved by periodic conference but political power games can still continue.

The time of day this occurred is the most important human factor. There has been an outcry about the KLATCC supervisor being asleep. He was supposed to be, that’s his job ! He is required to make strategic decisions and at night there are few. Operational staff make tactical decisions and the real mistake is that the operational staff didn’t wake him up. The first suspicion of a missing aeroplane should have got him out of bed, that’s what he’s paid for.

There’s been much discussion about why interceptors weren’t launched. The simple fact is, they lied. HH specified that all radar was from recordings and that was confirmed in the single paragraph from the Preliminary Report. You can’t intercept what you don’t see and recordings couldn’t have been replayed until many hours later. That alone proves Malaysian military have lied and once that happens it’s difficult to believe anything they claim. If it crossed Malaysia, military PSR should have seen it in real time, they didn’t.

I’ve been swinging between cover-up and cock-up and have now decided that it’s both. Malaysian military have been trying to cover their initial ineptitude by making subsequent claims in a state of panic. I suspect their radar was inadequately analyzed, known traffic not eliminated and a false trace led us up the Malacca Straits. Rivalry and blame between civil and military could easily have prevented the co-operation required for exchange of information. 

Then the JIT arrived and together with Inmarsat convinced Malaysia to focus on the SIO. I think the JIT initially believed the radar story until they did their own analysis and at that point the SIO search was moved. Diplomatically the JIT can’t publicly announce what they know without embarrassing Malaysia even further and that’s apart from the normal confidential investigation process. 

We need to consider the surrounding countries and wonder why they didn’t see anything on radar. It’s perfectly simple, they didn’t see anything for the same reason Malaysia didn’t. Thailand and Indonesia are not going to admit that their military are also incompetent. Indonesia categorically denied seeing it on radar and having made that statement, it becomes diplomatically impossible for the JIT to suggest MH370 entered their airspace.

Let’s have another look at this image from the Interim Report. They’ve given us very specific information from Kota Bharu PSR but the image also shows a track outside that range. The plot seems to give the complete track and the scale indicates that anything at Pulau Perak should have been there, it’s not.

I’m now of the opinion that this could be the complete radar track and the true last Military PSR contact was 6nm south of Penang at 1752.35 UTC. The heights given at Kota Bharu seem genuine because they are calculable from the PSR overhead. PSR’s have a known “dead zone” in their overheads and if they had sufficient trace could estimate from the gap in the trace.

By comparing the images, I believe the track I suggested across Sumatra last June, is close to what actually happened. I also suspect that the JIT know but can’t disclose for reasons already mentioned.

I don’t intend to go further with satellite calculations because considering the debate about the 1825 and 1841 pings, I think the track I’ve shown might prove to be the best fit but I’m not the best qualified to make that judgement.

 It has to be assumed that the JIT know what they’re doing and the continuing search shows that they’re certain it’s in the SIO.  I’ve now done my bit and it’s up to others to consider how it fits BTO/BFO. 

I’ve tripped and stumbled while examining this event and in trying to remain open-minded have even tried on a tin foil hat for size. I’m grateful to a real air investigator for grounding me sufficiently to accept realistic probabilities rather than unrealistic possibilities.

It’s a unifying theory linking radar to satellite and needs further testing but I’d put good money on it being more reliable than Diego Garcia, Maldives, Bay of Bengal, Kazakhstan and a “touch and go” from Banda Aceh. 

JACC continue to search the SIO and I wish them luck in their most difficult endeavour. 
(Although a peek in the SCS wouldn’t hurt in case something fell off !) 

MTF...P2