[ventus45]

"Confirmation Bias" is an interesting thing.

Everyone seems to "want" the Pemba Island Flap piece to be from the accident flight - but is it - really ?

The sad fact is, there is no "proof" - beyond "Reasonable Doubt" M'lud.

The ATSB says the "Italian Manufacturer" has "confirmed" it was manufactured as part of the "ship set" for Boeing B-777 "Line Number 404".

Just "by-the-way", here are a few little "tit-bits" re the "Italian Manufacturer".

"Alenia Aeronautica is sole supplier to Boeing for the 777 radome and outboard flap. The flap is the largest on any airliner and the longest composite part on the 777."
Ref: http://customers.aleniaaermacchi.it/en-U...g-777.aspx

"Boeing 777 Alenia Aeronautica is sole supplier to Boeing for the 777 radome and outboard flap. The flap is the largest on any airliner and the longest composite part on the 777."
Ref: http://www.epicos.com/EPCompanyProfileWe...x?id=21829

"In addition to being the current flap track fairing and wing tip supplier for the 777 program, Korean Air Lines, Aerospace Division, will manufacture the airplane's new wingbox extension and raked wing tips.
Each 777-300ER wing is being extended by 6.5 feet (1.98 meters), and raked wingtips are being added to improve the overall aerodynamic efficiency. The raked wingtips help reduce takeoff field length, increase climb performance and reduce fuel burn.
Major European suppliers that continue to be involved in production of the newest 777 include:
Spain -- Constructionnes Aeronauticas SA continues to produce the 777s, ailerons, flaperons and radome;
Italy -- Alenia Aerospazio continues to produces the 777s outboard flaps; and United Kingdom -- BAE SYSTEMS produces the fixed leading edges and Smiths Aerospace produces the electrical load management system and fuel quality indicating systems."
Ref: http://boeing.mediaroom.com/2002-06-11-D...-777-300ER

"(Source: Alenia Aeronautica; issued June 14, 2006)
Also involved is the Foggia plant, the only one in Europe able to produce for the first time in composite material components as long as the Boeing 777’s flaps (14 metres)."
Ref: http://www.defense-aerospace.com/article...n-21).html

Now, returning to the matter at hand.

Boeing B-777 "Line Number 404" is Boeing Manufacturer's Serial Number (MSM 28420, which is a 777-2H6ER, which first flew on the 14th May 2002, and was subsequently delivered to MAS and became 9M-MRO.





Now, having been manufactured "for" Line Number 404, and having been "Installed On" Line Number 404 in 2002, does NOT mean "it was still fitted to Line Number 404 on the 7th March 2014".


The ATSB update is here:
http://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/inve...-2014-054/"

Note as always: "This debris identification summary is released with the concurrence of the Malaysian ICAO Annex 13 Safety Investigation Team for MH370."

First Quote - ATSB

"On arrival at the ATSB, several part numbers were immediately located on the debris that confirmed the preliminary identification. This was consistent with the physical appearance, dimensions and construction of the part.

A date stamp associated with one of the part numbers indicated manufacture on 23 January 2002 (Figure 2), which was consistent with the 31 May 2002 delivery date for 9M-MRO.

All of the identification stamps had a second “OL” number, in addition to the Boeing part number, that were unique identifiers relating to part construction. The Italian part manufacturer recovered build records for the numbers located on the part and confirmed that all of the numbers related to the same serial number outboard flap that was shipped to Boeing as line number 404. Aircraft line number 404 was delivered to Malaysian Airlines and registered as 9M-MRO."

End First Quote - ATSB




Now, this is the important one.

Second Quote - ATSB

Based on the above information, the part was confirmed as originating from the aircraft registered 9M-MRO and operating as MH370.

End Second Quote - ATSB

Now, call me a cynic if you wish, but for mine (my money), that Second Quote is just "too well written, too well crafted" to swallow whole.

It is deliberately crafted to make one "assume" that it "is confirmed" that the item came from "the accident flight", but it does not actually say that at all, and more to the point, it is very carefully crafted "not to actually say that" - M'lud (your honour).

The JACC and ATSB could never risk being caught telling an outright bare faced lie, but perhaps an innocent "poorly constructed set of words - M'lud" could save them in court.

Although the manufacturer confirms it is from ship-set 404, which was fitted at the Boeing Factory to 9M-MRO, it is a (deliberately intended) stretch of logic to assume "that it was still definately fitted to 9M-MRO on the 7th March 2014".

The fact is that "ramp and tarmac rash" is a major fact of life. Many flaps, ailerons and flaperons, not to mention a host of other components, get replaced on aircraft all over the world every single day.  Those of us who spent a working lifetime in the logistics world, know that only too well, the general public does not. In other words, the conspiracy nuts think you need a missing or scrapped B-777 as a "source" for a "spare" component. You don't.  

The logistics world exists because things do get damaged, necessitating that they be changed out. Handling spare parts, both "new" and "refurbished", is what the logistician's life is all about. ENSURING the "efficacy" of those parts (you have heard of bougus parts - no ?  the FAA has ...) is the major headache of the logistician's life. The "paper trail" is key and vital. I could go on for hours, but I will not.

Then, of course, all the maintenance records for 9M-MRO were lost in that mysterious fire - weren't they. How convenient.

Then, of course, this flap was found beneath an overhang that could only be seen from a small boat, close in-shore.

Then, of course, this flap was also found with very few if any marine life encrusted. Compared to the flaperon and "Roy", how "odd".

Call me a cynic if you wish, but I have been around way too long to swallow that second quote "hook-line-and-sinker".

The reality is:  The part was "originally fitted" to 9M-MRO in 2002.  BUT - There is "absolutely no proof what-so-ever" that it remained on-wing, on "that airframe / aircraft", "continuously", up to and including 7th March 2014, but the reader is "whole-heartedly encouraged" to "assume - precisely that".  M'lud.  

(Note to the members of the jury - BOLLOCKS !!)

Now read this carefully.



Note, from the Malaysian press release above:
(1) ATSB experts "have completed" analysis.
(2) Analysis was "thorough".

So, why no "Engineering Report" ?
Surely the ATSB have "determined" whether it either "separated in flight" (flutter ?) or was on the aircraft when it hit, either "UP" (retracted) or "Down" (extended), and if so, at what position ?

Whether or not it "separated in flight" or "broke off on impact" should be easily determined by detailed examination of the broken "outboard" end of the flap structure, and in particular, the remaining piece of the flap support.

Furthermore, "if it was still on wing when it hit" the sea, the probable dynamics of that impact must have also been "determined". What was it, a high speed high angle dive, or a low angle ditch, either high speed flaps up - or low speed flaps down ?

The ATSB needs to grow some gonads here.

A lot of people died on this flight, including 6 Australians. When does a so called "accident" investigation" turn into a "criminal" investigation, of possible, even probable "unlawful death" ?

"Pandering" to the Malaysian Investigation's wishes for "vagueness", can be seen as being complicit in "hiding the facts / evidence". That could have serious repercussions in court, at some time in the future.

The ATSB must either "spit out the details", or publicly shut up, (whilst providing the "evidence" to the Federal Police) and let the Malaysians make "all" the press releases themselves.

Line Number 404.JPG Size: 137.73 KB  Downloads: 164

fig2_exemplar-part-number-and-date-stamp_debris3 (1).jpg Size: 172.66 KB  Downloads: 156

7.jpg Size: 329.45 KB  Downloads: 141