[P7_TOM]

I would call the Ulich hypotheses a 'more probable' start point; and although there is little to dissuade that the mathematics Hardy presents are nice; there are some questions which still beg answers.  We have endless hours of 'cruise conversation' where questions are posed and answers sought; for instance:-

What if the autopilot was in Heading mode rather than Nav? we don't know, do we.  The Jetstream, ITCZ and even temperature inversions, all present at the time COULD have affected the flight path in HDG mode.  But; just as there is no definitive, empirical evidence of start point; and Ulrich is one of the best unproven guesstimates, it's all still a bit like the Monty Python, Life of Brian scenes where the crowd argue "it's the gourd" that's a sign from God, the rest believe it is "the Sandal".

In all the millions of words written and spoken about MH 370 there is piece provided by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPAI) – HERE – which provides much to ponder.

....Improving strategic relations with Indonesia is likely to remain Australia’s most important security objective in Southeast Asia, for obvious reasons. However, Jakarta’s abrupt, prolonged freeze on security cooperation, in retaliation for the Snowden revelations, has brought home the vicissitudes in the bilateral relationship—and the dangers of overloading the Indonesian basket when it comes to Australia’s defence engagement in Southeast Asia. By contrast, the FPDA has continued to accumulate quiet achievements. If Canberra doesn’t share quite the same perceptions of Indonesia as its Southeast Asian partners, its difficulties with Jakarta over the past year nonetheless underscore the value of FPDA dependability—and the risks of over-reliance upon a single partner within the region.

However, the "bit" that grabbed my attention was buried within the following paragraph:- my bold.

.....Unlike the echidna, the FPDA has at least adjusted its gait to move with the times, re-badging IADS from integrated air defence to area defence as far back as 2001. Exercise and interoperability themes have since been broadened from conventional defence to HADR and maritime security. FPDA was not publicly invoked during the search for MH 370, but the disaster has focused an operational spotlight on the need for integrated air surveillance and SAR coordination across Southeast Asia and beyond.

The apparent failure to track the airliner - as it passed north of Butterworth - was not IADS’ finest hour. But the continuing multinational search operation has unquestionably benefited from the institutionalised trust built up between Malaysia and its fellow FPDA members.

It is only six words – six; but it leads to many other possible scenarios of final destination, depending on whether this is a misprint, Freudian slip, red herring or the truth slipping in, unoticed?  (a) how far North of Butterworth was the 'aircraft'; and, (b) in which direction was it shaping track.  It throws more fuel onto the speculation fire, particularly as there are no answers available; well, none that I can find – anyone?.  

Back to the Ulich proposition; if you want to hit a particular number on a dart board, first you must know where the number is.  To find it you must know where the dartboard is, on which wall it hangs, in which building it resides, where that building is and how to get there.  If you do not know where you are when you set out – how are you to place your dart in that elusive number on the dartboard.  In short there must be a seriously deep analysis of the known flight path from just before IGARI; without every single piece of ALL available information forthcoming; you may as well put a map of the world up, throw a dart at it and say – X marks the spot – dig here.  Oh we did that, did we?

Aye well, I'll stick with "K's ET for a little while yet, at least until we get some hard data from ground investigation.  If it's not in space and not in the water then the answers are on the ground.  

Maybe we could 'water-board' Dolan; he knows SFA, but it would be such jolly good fun.... ....