[Peetwo]

..Being a sceptical ex-public-servant myself (left in June 2000) I suspect that the draft is just another "Whitewash Mk-2", which was deliberately drafted as such, in the "full knowledge and expectation", that one or more of the DIP(s) would "reject"...

..So, I wonder, - which (one or more) of the various "DIP(s)" have "rejected", and "why" ?

The "who(s)", might be more telling of the "hidden reasons", than the most probabe and "obvious" public why(s)...

..I reckon V45 has nailed it – for the normal, run of the mill, routine delay and obfuscation we expect for every ‘incident’.  PC and ‘sensitivity’ levels are always high and of course the CASA legend must not be tarnished, nor the predetermined outcome be challenged.  This is the ATSB raison d'être under the Beyond all Reason system.

Even so – P2 (IMO) creeps close to the deeper reasons; but not for ‘withholding’.  Turn it around. We know the Senators hold some pretty damning information and have a pretty fair idea of the real why’s and wherefores.  Beaker ain’t got a lot of latitude and no matter how ‘narrow’ a focus the report takes, the Senate ‘evidence’ must be acknowledged, dealt with and be visible in the report; or else, take it away and do it again - properly. Repeat as often as needed... 

...IMO a slight correction is needed there: [much] more disturbing revelations that even a dedicated Senate Committee were able to uncover  - but lacked enough empirical evidence to make it stick.  This is being used to keep Beaker and Co. honest, force probity into the set piece. If you take the V45 argument + P2 logic there are many reasons to delay the report until the golden parachutes are fully deployed and the fur lined jock straps have been hand crafted to ensure maximum protection and comfort...

From a horse's mouth -

Ok I can accept the "V" & "K" speculative hypotheticals on what the last (April 04) ATSB update to the PelAir cover-up re-investigation actually means. Given the historical evidence that we already have in the lead up to the last election, this is the most obvious synopsis to make:

Ventus - In any case, the delay will now clearly push the "time-line to the right", in accordance with the plan, i.e. beyond:-

(a-i) the current Parliament (essential)

(a-ii) the current SENATORS (crucial objective for the Chief Commissioner)

(a-iii) the current Minister

(b) the Election,

(c-i) the end of the MH-370 sarch, ("most crucial" objective for the Chief Commissioner, for he can then "retire"),

(c-ii) the departure (retirement, rather than dismissal) of the present Chief Commissioner.

 
However I have it from a reliable source (in other words a DIP) that there has not been any sign of a DRAFT report passed on for DIP review, as per the TSI Act:

26 Draft reports


(1) The ATSB may provide a draft report, on a confidential basis, to

any person whom the ATSB considers appropriate, for the purpose

of:

(a) allowing the person to make submissions to the ATSB about

the draft report; or


(b) giving the person advance notice of the likely form of the

published report.

    
In fact there has been no update or even contact since the DIPs were re-interviewed some two months ago. Not sure what that all means in the grand scheme of things but it does confirm the veracity of this statement in their latest update...

"..The re-opened investigation has gathered a substantial volume of additional evidence, primarily from CASA and the aircraft operator, and has involved over 20 interviews with personnel from the operator and CASA, as well as information from the aircraft’s cockpit voice and flight data recorders. Analysis of the large volume of evidence obtained is continuing as is the development of the draft report, which is now expected to be released for review and comment by directly involved parties around the middle of the year..." 

Who knows whether or not this 'statement of intent' is designed to coincide with the election & consequently Ventus (a) & (b) assumptions ..

 "..The usual reasons for doing so being either to :-

(a) "pass the bowl of poo" to your unfortunate departmental replacement, or

(b) "pass the bowl of poo" to the next minister, or indeed "government".."

However what I will say is that from past statements from Dolan & Co in Estimates, I get the feeling that they wanted this embarrassing re-investigation well and truly done & dusted by now.

19/10/15 Supplementary Estimates:

Senator FAWCETT: Mr Dolan, I saw on your website today that you have issued an update to the reopening of the investigation into the Pel-Air accident.


Mr Dolan : Yes.


Senator FAWCETT: Could you give the committee, in this forum, a brief on the status of that reopened investigation.


Mr Dolan : At this stage the update related to the contract that I said I signed last week.

The information-gathering stage of the reopened investigation is essentially complete, and so the work is now going through to assess all the additional information that has been acquired to draw conclusions so that a draft report can be prepared before Christmas.  

28/05/15 Budget Estimates:

Senator XENOPHON: I think ATSB has stated that it would like to complete the reopened Pel-Air investigation before Christmas. Is that still a likely time frame?

Mr Dolan : Yes. If there are significant delays in the recovery of the recorders, that might put a delay into it, but our aim still is to complete it before Christmas.

MTF...P2