[Peetwo]

Whispers, on the wind?

P2 - This was originally compiled for & during the Pel-Air inquiry so it is now somewhat post dated but the signs are that the SR decline trend has since stabilised.

It seems the release of  the polished, work-shopped version of the Pel-Air debacle even after some severe massaging has been delayed, yet again – expected mid year now.  This may have something to do with using election ‘white noise’ and distraction to float it out of sight and far away; but rumour suggests otherwise.  Seems the DIP have told ATSB to take the draft away and ‘get real’ i.e.. rejected; and, returned with some force.  This sort of thing always gets leaked and solemn promises not to mention what is contained in the draft, when respected always work.  I will say this; it’s no wonder the DIP have rejected the thing.

That’s it – MTF a racing certainty.

Toot toot.

More Beaker O&O bollocks??

"..Seems the DIP have told ATSB to take the draft away and ‘get real’ i.e.. rejected; and, returned with some force.."
 
Interesting rumour..    In an attempt to follow up - & knowing ATSBeaker don't always publicise updates to active investigations, especially those that are politically sensitive and they are providing top cover for - I dug out the re-investigation 'Update' page :   

Updated: 4 April 2016


The re-opened investigation has gathered a substantial volume of additional evidence, primarily from CASA and the aircraft operator, and has involved over 20 interviews with personnel from the operator and CASA, as well as information from the aircraft’s cockpit voice and flight data recorders. Analysis of the large volume of evidence obtained is continuing as is the development of the draft report, which is now expected to be released for review and comment by directly involved parties around the middle of the year. That analysis is focusing on:

• pre-flight planning and fuel management procedures and practices
  
• in-flight fuel management and related decision-making procedures and practices
  
• fatigue management procedures and practices
  
• flight crew check and training
  
• the operator’s oversight of its flight operations activities
  
• provision of weather and other flight information to flight crews
  
• cabin safety and survival factors
  
• regulatory oversight of activities such as those listed above
  

From that it can be seen that once again the ATSB has discretely (no fanfare) side-stepped notifying the general public and industry on the latest O&O of (re)-investigation AO-2009-072. Well no surprises there, hopefully this further delay update (& the circumstances for the latest delay) has been passed onto (as promised by Dolan) the Senators??

Although it could be that the DIPs (in this case CASA & the operator) have called for wholesale amendment to the DRAFT FR, the above would seem to put the first part of the rumour to bed. 

{P2 OBs - Reading between the lines it would appear that the lid has well & truly been lifted and now the rats are no doubt scurrying to find a bolt hole while the true, scurrilous, unadulterated version rears its ugly head}  

The other part of the rumour could well be true - i.e waiting it out till the cover of the election campaign & the transition to the new parliament. The timing would also (if a DD election) coincide with CC Dolan finally leaving the building, perfect opportunity to come clean. You know fresh start, new chapter, change of philosophy, cultural change and all that 'key word' spin & bulldust...

Personally I don't think so, all of the above will happen regardless of the PelAir re-investigation final report outcome. No I think this delay is more to do with the uncovering of much, much more disturbing revelations that even a dedicated Senate Committee were not able to uncover...

This was the last stated scoping by the ATSB in their 25 May 2015 update (in bold):

Updated: 25 May 2015


The previous update on 24 April 2015 outlined the results of a recent underwater survey of the aircraft’s wreckage. Based on this survey, the ATSB is currently assessing options for the task of recovering the recorders.

Other investigation activities to date have included:

• Reviewing documentation from the original ATSB investigation and the Senate Inquiry conducted by the Senate Rural and Regional Affairs and Transport References Committee in 2012-2013.
  
• Reviewing documentation from investigations into the accident conducted by the Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA) and the operator.
  
• Reviewing documentation from the operator, including flight records for several Westwind aircraft, check and training records for several flight crew, duty times and rosters, occurrence and hazard reports, audit reports, and safety committee meeting records.  
  
• Interviewing 14 personnel from the operator, including management, check and training pilots and line pilots.
  
• Comparing the operator’s policies and procedures and other requirements with its operational practices, particularly in areas such as flight planning, fuel management, fatigue management, and emergency procedures.
  
• Comparing the results from three bio-mathematical models of fatigue when applied to a series of the operator’s duty periods, and examining the suitability of the FAID model and related guidance material when applied to the operator’s air ambulance operations.
  
• Reviewing documentation from the air traffic services’ providers in Fiji and New Zealand about their policies and procedures for the provision of flight information, and how these were applied during the accident flight.
  
• Reviewing CASA’s surveillance files and related documentation for the operator.
  
• Reviewing documentation and interviewing personnel from the air ambulance contracting company.
  
  

During the Senate Inquiry associated with the original ATSB investigation, significant concerns were raised by some of the aircraft’s occupants about the serviceability and design of the life jackets used by three of the occupants. The re-opened investigation established that the life jackets had been retained by the Norfolk Island Police Force since the accident. The ATSB has now taken possession of the life jackets, and they will be examined after consultation with relevant parties. The life jackets were required to be serviced every 5 years, and all three jackets had been serviced within the 5-year period prior to the accident.

As well as continuing with the above activities, the next phase of the investigation will involve:

• Interviewing several personnel from CASA.
  
  
• Comparing the operator’s policies, procedures and practices with other air ambulance operators.
  
  
• Examining the reliability of weather forecasting at Norfolk Island.
  

 
& also on discovery that the CVR/FDR recordings were not corrupted and therefore useable, it was stated in the 19 October 2015 update:

The previous update on 25 May 2015 outlined the nature of the other investigation activities being undertaken by the re-opened investigation. These activities are close to being completed. In addition, the re-opened investigation has conducted interviews with both flight crew and both medical crew from the accident flight.

The investigation team are now in the process of analysing the available information and they have commenced the preparation of a draft report. Given the delay in recovering the recorders and the amount of information that has been collected and analysed, it is expected that a draft report will be released to directly involved parties for comment in early 2016.

If you think about it the potential ramifications of the latest (04 April) update, could lead to far more than yet another overdue & obfuscated ATSB (re)-investigation. I'm thinking on the implications for withholding evidence from a parliamentary inquiry...  


MTF...P2