[Peetwo]

Lone wolf MH370 Muppet at it again??

By Ben Sandilands, courtesy Plane Talking:

Full MH370 search will likely end early July

Ben Sandilands | Mar 01, 2016 8:09AM |


A possible debris trail which will be rescanned

The chief commissioner of the ATSB, Martin Dolan, has just extended the likely end of the full search of the south Indian Ocean priority zone for MH370 to early July.

This compares to late May to early June in previous guidance from the search managers.
Appearing on ABC News 24, Mr Dolan said he was confident that the search would however end sooner with the finding of the wreckage of the Malaysia Airlines 777-200ER which disappeared on 8 March 2014 with at least 239 people on board on its way from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing.

The flight was at 35,000 feet over the Gulf of Thailand when its identifying air traffic control transponder ceased operating.

Less than 35,000 square kilometres of the 120,000 square kilometres believed to be the most likely area in which the jet came down remain to be searched in detail by sonar scanning devices.

However the final stages of the search effort include repeat scanning of sea floor terrain that may have been too deep or too complex to be satisfactorily examined by the initial equipment used in the priority area SW of Perth.

These final examinations of areas of doubt is being assisted by the use of a very high definition synthetic aperture towed sonar scanner on board a large Chinese rescue vessel that joined the ATSB managed search late last month.

Mr Dolan said that should no sunk wreckage be found the search will cease because it would have to be concluded that there was no possibility (or probability) of finding MH370.

He reaffirmed the assumption being made by the search advisers and managers that there was no-one at the controls of MH370 at the end of the flight.

However he said “there is a possibility that there was someone at the controls” until the very final stages of the flight.  He didn’t rule out the possibility that control was exercised to some extent right to the very end.

This is a nuanced shift away from the previous position of the ATSB that MH370 flew without pilot input for most if not all of its flight after it turned south from a westerly or northwesterly course off the coast of southern Thailand when last seen as a non transponder identified radar return on Malaysian military radar.

Why might this be important? The analysis the ATSB is relying upon from ‘pings’ generated by a server on board MH370 and picked up by an Inmarsat communications satellite supports a total loss of control during the very final moments of the flight, when they implied that the jet spiralled downwards to impact with the ocean after all fuel on board had been exhausted.

However that analysis doesn’t preclude pilot control of MH370 prior to the fuel running out, even though the declared assumption until this morning’s TV interview was that for most of the flight southwards this was a ‘ghost’ flight with no-one exercising any flight control inputs.

That earlier assumption did not come with a firm, provable, starting point for the southward journey, nor did it declare a point along the southward flight where any pilot input ended.

This isn’t grounds for criticising that lack of precision. Without being sighted or tracked after it was last seen off Thailand, and with apparently unbroken radio silence from its cockpit, there was nothing that would have allowed the search assumptions for MH370 to be that precise.

This lack of knowledge as to what exactly MH370 did between being last seen by military radar and beginning its southerly trajectory means the definition of the priority search area in the south Indian Ocean is beset by major critical uncertainties.

 
Again I find it 'passing strange' that there is no 'official' recognition on either the ATSB or JACC official media webpages, again remembering that the JACC primary role is for the - to & from - dissemination of MH370 SIO search on behalf of the Australian government & it's agencies to all MH370 DIPs:

The JACC is the coordination point for whole-of-Australian Government information, messaging and stakeholder engagement, including keeping the families of those onboard and the general public informed of the progress of the search.

The JACC continues working closely with the Government of Malaysia, which under international law has overall responsibility for the search.

  
I even checked the Minister's webpage to see if he maybe sanctioned these latest developments being announced (apparently unofficially) by the ATSB CC. - see HERE - but nothing, zilch, zip, zero.

Which doesn't surprise me because back on the 18-19 Feb the Minister had sought a detailed briefing on MH370: 

 Weekend Oz:

Newly appointed Transport Minister Darren Chester has sought a “detailed briefing” on the search for Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 following the admission by Australian Transport Safety Bureau chief commissioner Marti­n Dolan that the “rogue pilot” theory he had rejected could be correct after all...
 
...A spokeswoman told The Weekend Australian the new minister “has sought detailed briefing from officials leading the search for MH370”.

But the spokeswoman cautioned: “The governments of ­Malaysia, China and Australia have agreed that in the absence of credible new information that there will be no further expansion of the search area.”

Whether to instruct Mr Dolan to draw up a new search plan, with a costing, could be one of the earliest decisions facing Mr Chester...

And then in the 27-28th Weekend Oz, it would seem that Mr Chester had received this briefing:

..The search for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 plane is likely to end in June, dashing hopes the so-called rogue pilot theory will be investigated and leaving the mystery of the flight and its 239 passengers unsolved.


Federal Transport Minister Darren Chester said that almost two years since the Boeing 777’s disappearance, the search for its remains was unlikely to continue once the target area was completed mid-year.



“It’s tragic for the families involved that it’s taking so long and it’s a difficult process and I’ve got nothing but empathy and sympathy for the families who are waiting for an outcome,” he said yesterday.



“In the absence of any further credible evidence, that will be the end of the search process.”



Mr Chester said it was unlikely the 120,000sq km search area in the southern Indian Ocean, which is being scoured by the Australian Transport Safety Bureau, would be expanded.



The ATSB is searching the area on the premise the aircraft crashed after hours on auto­pilot, and “no control inputs” were recorded at the end of the flight...

    
And now the ATSB CC seems to be (again) contradicting his Minister less than 3 days later??
Either that or there is a significant announcement pending with "further credible evidence" meaning the search will go on...
MTF..P2