[airlandseaman]

ATSB has been fully aware from the very start that MH370 could have been flown by a live human up to ~80 NM beyond the 7th arc, which lies at the center of the defined search area. In fact, if someone was alive and at the controls during the final 15 minutes, that person could have flown in any direction after crossing the 7th arc.

ATSB has also known that it makes sense to search the highest probability end points first. What little evidence we have is more (I would say much more) consistent with an end point within 20-30 nm of the 7th arc. That evidence includes two BFO observations, the first at 00:19:29 indicating a decent rate of ~4800 ft/min, and the second at 00:19:37 indicating a descent rate of ~14,800 ft/min. These are facts. The observations were real, and the analysis is real. Some experts were initially unsure if these BFO observations were accurate because they were so different from the pattern of BFO observations up to the 6th arc, all of which indicated relatively level flight at a TAS ~480 kts. But by June 2014, Victor Iannello and later others had discovered that the AES does not compensate for vertical Doppler. The AES compensates for ~95% of the horizontal Doppler, leaving only a weak residual signal indicating radial horizontal speed to/from the I3F1 spacecraft. But the vertical Doppler is uncompensated, making the BFO observations very strong signals proportional to vertical speed. That is why the two final BFO observations were so different from the pattern up to 00:11. They are very high signal to noise ratio signals indicating high vertical descent rates. The bottom line is, even if these BFO observations include some error, the magnitude of the signal indicates a very high rate of speed even if the error was 100 Hz, or 20X what the max error was for all the other BFO observations. There is just no way one can ignore or dismiss this evidence as “noise”.

It is also known that in many other cases involving uncontrolled post fuel exhaustion flight, (and other upsets) the flights ended with descent rates as high as 30,000 ft/min. (See ATSBs first report: “MH370 Definition of Sea Floor Wide Area Search”, Appendix C for many historical examples). Thus, it is not surprising that we have BFO observations consistent with a high rate of descent at the 7th arc.

Moreover, on November 2, 2014, I spent 4 hours in a UAL B777-200 simulator conducting experiments to learn how the B777 responds to the loss of all engine derived electrical power. Those tests confirmed what Boeing tests, reported by ATSB, indicated. Following fuel exhaustion, the autopilot disengages, the plane starts turning to the left or right within seconds, the bank angle steepens, the TAS accelerates to near Mach 1, the vertical speed increases to >10,000 ft/min and impact is quick. You can watch a short segment of one experiment here: https://goo.gl/QW5Mw0 These experiments do not prove MH370 was a “ghost flight”, but they do prove that the BFO observations are consistent with a ghost flight ending.

Finally, we have the Flapperon evidence. On July 30, 2015 I published my first of several Flapperon related reports noting that the publically available photographic evidence indicated that the Flapperon probably separated from the wing in flight, due to excess speed induced flutter. In December 2015, Thomas Kenyon published an extensive analysis that supported the same conclusion. https://goo.gl/6AG5Ud Thus, the Flapperon and BFO observations, and the simulator experiments all point to a high speed descent ending close to the 7th arc.

Of course, the evidence and analysis cannot be said to be conclusive. It is possible, but unlikely, that there is some unknown bizarre explanation for all these facts, and a live human flew the plane 80 nm past the 7th arc. But there is not a single piece of evidence supporting that theory. So, where do you look first?