[slats11]

He "must" therefore remain "in the dark" to avoid visual detection by ships or aircraft AND for him to be able to see the lights of ships, if any, because he doesn't want to ditch anywhere near one for obvious reasons.

For that and other reason, (many others), he "must" "overfly" his "intended ditch zone" in the dark, with him also "still in the dark".

He absolutely MUST remain in the dark, west of the terminator, until the last moments.

I used to think that Ventus. I think it was I who suggested this scenario and the terminator to you many months ago.

The hardest time to see any shipping (which I believe would have been a consideration) is when the sea is dark but you are in bright sunlight above. It is easier either in complete light (surface illuminated) or complete darkness (eyes adjusted to dark, and ships should have running lights on).

If you want to ditch with sunlight at the surface, you would have been in sunlight at TOD. To minimise risk of not seeing a ship, you would want the surface illuminated.

So on balance I now think likely east of the terminator - with a bit of "time" to spare in case fuel ran out early and the terminator was further east.

Your scenario suggests ditching didn't follow fuel exhaustion - which is obviously possible. The best interpretation of the last ping however is that this was due to fuel exhaustion.

All this is conjecture. Interesting. But conjecture none-the-less.

As it appears we are being prepared for an unsuccessful search, I am interested in the satellite sightings of what presumably appeared to be a cluster of debris further south and east. If it wasn't thought to be a cluster of debris, it wouldn't have been news at the time.

I am also intrigued at ATSB finally hinting at a possible controlled glide at the end. They were always fixated on the idea of an uncontrolled dive - presumably because it wasn't politically acceptable to draw attention to the inevitable implications of a controlled glide.

But now a controlled glide is at least being considered, I wonder if it ties in with these satellite sightings.