02-18-2016, 10:09 AM
Venus, it depends on whether you think the goal was:
a) to ditch right at dawn
b) to ditch as far south as possible at or fairly soon after dawn.
I think b) is more likely.
For option b), a late departure is not really a problem - you will just arrive a bit later after dawn.
The bigger problem is less than expected range / endurance. You definitely don't want to run out of fuel before dawn (west of the terminator). So you allow a bit of room for error and plan to be a bit east of the terminator at the time you expect to be out of fuel.
The easiest option may be to fly parallel to the terminator - a more southerly course than you propose.
That does suggest in the general vicinity of Simon Hardy, and also closer to the debris cluster seen by different satellites relatively soon after the loss.
a) to ditch right at dawn
b) to ditch as far south as possible at or fairly soon after dawn.
I think b) is more likely.
For option b), a late departure is not really a problem - you will just arrive a bit later after dawn.
The bigger problem is less than expected range / endurance. You definitely don't want to run out of fuel before dawn (west of the terminator). So you allow a bit of room for error and plan to be a bit east of the terminator at the time you expect to be out of fuel.
The easiest option may be to fly parallel to the terminator - a more southerly course than you propose.
That does suggest in the general vicinity of Simon Hardy, and also closer to the debris cluster seen by different satellites relatively soon after the loss.