On the subject of "assumptions".
The "Via Medan Theory".
The entire ATSB search for MH-370 in the SIO (Southern Indian Ocean) is based on what I think may be, and probably is, a "pivotal" falsehood.
I think this "pivotal falsehood", is the presumed north west turn, slightly south of, but close to, Penang, which was first revealed to the world, in the now infamous "Lido Slide", which also showed the subsequent equally presumed Malacca Strait flight path.
This flight path has been vigorously asserted to be true by the Malaysian Government, yet they steadfastly refuse to provide the raw primary radar data to prove it, for so-called, "security" reasons. The work of Guarded Don, who has detailed the capabilities of all the other radars in the area, has proved, to me at least, that the "Lido Track" can not be true.
As I speculated in June 2014, I think that the aircraft actually turned only slightly, south west from Penang, towards Medan, not north west, up the Malacca Strait. I think the subsequent track was on Airway (L774) to waypoint Merim, and then onwards towards waypoints Uprob and possibly Isbix, but I think it actually turned south (the real FMT) around 18:30 UTC, between Milam and Uprod, in a position approximately 300 nautical miles, virtually due south, of the currently assumed FMT-zone, north of Ache. In essence, this 300 nautical miles, is "additional range" that the aircraft has available to it to fly south, that no one "in authority" anywhere, (Malaysia, Australia, USA or UK) will admit to.
My reasons for thinking this is the correct scenario are as follows.
Let us assume (as_1) that MH-370 was "in fact" in the vicinity of Penang at 17:52 utc.
Let us assume (as_2) that Malaysian Military Primary Radar DID ACTUALLY TRACK MH-370 (not some other aircraft, or signal).
Let us assume (as_3) that I am wrong, and that MH370 did actually turn north west and fly up the Malacca Strait.
The first question we have to ask is:-
If the track is "truthfull", why did no other PSR in Thailand, Indonesia or Malaysia, that the laws of physics tell us should have seen it, DID NOT SEE IT, going up the Malacca Strait ?
If the aircraft was truly there, Guarded Don's work conclusively shows that there is no credible reason why they did not see it, if they were active.
Consequently, the Malacca Strait track produced by the Malaysian Government, may be (must be) false.
Second question:
Why "might" the Malaysian Government have wanted to produced a false track ?
Consider the timeing of events.
(1) The "Lido Slides" were revealed to the world at the breifing for the Chineese next of kin at the Lido Hotel in Beijing on the 21st March 2014.
(2) This was thirteen days after MH-370 disappeared.
(3) The Malaysian Government had received the Inmarsat data at least 6 days prior to this.
(4) The Malaysian Government therefore had at least 6 days, plenty of time, to examine, and fully understand the implications of the Inmarsat data, whilst all the time, steadfasly denying the significance of it to the world.
(5) The Malaysian Government knew however, that sooner or later, the Inmarsat data would leak out, one way or another, and that independent examination of it would prove to the world, that MH-370 had gone to the SIO.
(6) The Malaysian Government also knew, from their own radar data, where MH-370 had "actually" gone, but that HAD TO REMAIN SECRET.
(7) So, the Malaysian Government had a problem. They knew where it went (over Medan), but for a host of political reasons could not say so. They needed to come up with a scenario that was compatible with the Inmarsat data, such that when that data was released, whatever the "supposed" flight path was, it would be accepted by the world as "genuine".
(8) A simple look at the map was all that was needed to devise a "suitable" and "compatible" scenario.
The requirements were:-
(a) since all other nations had denied seeing the aircraft on their radars, it could not track over another country, particularly where it was "known" that those countries had "known to be active" radars "at the "relevant times".
(b) Since there had been no reports of any sightings post 17:52 utc, any track that met the requirement to "meet" the 18:28 utc "ping" was both necessary and sufficient, provided it complied with the rquirements of (a).
© Malaysian Military Intelligence (the SECRET stuff) KNEW that:-
(i) All relevant Thai radars "were active" at the time,
(ii) All relevant Indonesian radars in southern Sumartra "were active" at the time,
(iii) All relevant Indonesian radars in the north and north-east of Sumartra "were not active" at the time.
(d) Malaysian Military Intelligence (the SECRET stuff), however, DID NOT KNOW that:-
(IV) An Indonesian radar in WESTERN Sumartra "WAS ACTIVE" at the time. (Secret for now - read on)
(e) Taken together, (a) (b) © and (d parts i, ii, and iii), eliminate all areas other than the Malacca Strait.
(f) The Malacca Strait becomes the only option, iff (if, and only if) there is no "inconvenient gottya" in the Malacca Strait, and "there could have been".
Consider these factors:-
(i) Shipping in the Malacc Strait.
This waterway is one of the busiest in the world. It is a marine "choke point".
(ii) Days pass, no "CIVILIAN" sightings of any kind, visual, or radar (highly unlikely that a commercial ship navigation radar would even "detect" let alone "record" an aircraft anyway, even if it was there, so, it should be a safe bet that no one will question that), IN the Malacca Strait.
(iii) The "search" was by now in full swing in the Malacca Strait, and had found nothing.
(iv) So, the only thing that COULD, POSSIBLY, "bring the deception plan undone" (at some future time) MIGHT BE, a military ship, with a good "air seach radar system" (which effectively means frigate size or larger) that would in fact, as standard operating procedure for the military, be tracking, identifying and/or classifying all air traffic/targets, 24/7 while at sea.
The question became, was there such a ship out there that night ?
(a) If the answer (from Military Intelligence and Shipping Authorities) was NO, then no problem.
(b) If the answer was YES, the next question would be, WHOSE WAS IT ?
The danger for the Malaysian Government was that if such a ship was there, recording ALL air traffic, it would become impossible to "sell" a Malacca Strait track that "did not exist".
Most Navies would not say anything, but a "non aligned" Navy, particularly one with a "significant interest" (say if there had been a Chinese PLAN frigate in the area), "might" say:-
"During the time of MH-370's allegded transit of the nominated area, we tracked thirty seven aircraft.
We positively identified all of them.
Here is the list.
None of them were MH-370.
There were no other unidentified targets or tracks.
MH-370 was not there."
Such an outcome would have been most unfortunate for the Malaysian Government.
Fortunately for the Malaysian Government, and Unfortunately for the world, there was apparently no such capable ship out there, that could have "confirmed or denied" the Malacca Strait track, at least not one that anyone knows anything about, or if they do, no one is talking about it.
Consequently, a FORENSIC examination of all shipping, from 200 nautical miles south of a line between Penang and Medan, all the way to the northern approaches to the entrance to the Straits, on the night of 7th/8th March 2014, is required, to resolve this issue.
Now, returning to the Lido Hotel.
It was quite clear to "all and sundry" that the slide showing "the looping turn" at Igari was rubbish, yet for some reason (unfathomable to me), the one slide showing the Malacca Strait track has seemingly been accepted as "gospel", by everyone.
If the Malacca Strait slide is truthful, why did the Malaysian Government even produce the "loopy" slide at all, especially one so obviously ludicrous ?
Consider this scenario.
The malaysian Government had been "playing for time" for the two weeks leading up to the Lido Hotel NOK breifing.
(1) At the "eleventh hour" so to speak, they realised that since the "true track" they had recorded over Medan (from the Western Hill radar) obviously did meet the 18:27/28 utc arc "on time", that any doubts that may have existed that it "was" MH-370 were dispelled.
(2) Knowing that the north eastern Sumartra radars were "inactive" at the time, created a "radar black hole" in the western parts of the Malacca Straits, so, they could produce a track in the western part of the Malacca Straits that was plausible and that was sufficiently far from Thai radars that they could plausibly "ply with altitudes" to suggest that the aircraft was below the radar horizon of those radar heads, and thus invisible.
(3) So, create the track using the "true" returns, but just "rotate them in azimuth" about 70 degrees or so clockwise, and produce the graphic (in haste) and fly off to Peking/Beijing pronto.
Now, my view of all this is as follows.
The only "apparent" primary radar track data for MH-370 "west of Penang" is the Malaysian radar track from the Malaysian Western Hill Primary Radar site (5.424700°N 100.251070°E). This radar did track MH-370 all the way to just inside the west coast of Sumatra on Airway L774, and I think the "proof" is easy to see, from the now infamous "LIDO SLIDE".
Proceed as follows.
If you rotate the radial counter-clockwise down to Airway L774, you obtain the position on the airway that is 200nm from Butterworth, which is at 03.0718N 098.0028E on approximately the 226 radial.
The "rotation" of the TRUE radial Butterworth to the FAKE radial Butterworth is 295 to 226, i.e., counter-clockwise, 69 degrees.
Just hold that thought for a moment.
The recent DSTG (formerly DSTO) report must be based on the Western Hill Primary Radar Site data, since there is (apparently) no other primary radar data available from any other site, in any country.
What is significant however, is that the DSTG specifically state, and they are very-very careful to "highlight" the fact, is that they are working with data provided by the Malaysian Government that gives:-
<quote> Latitude, Longitude and Altitude at Ten Second Intervals. </quote>.
NOTE: This is NOT the ACTUAL radar data itself.
Thus, this "data" is "uncertified" to be true.
Now, "ten second" data implies Primary Radar Antenna sweep rotation of six revolutions per minute, which is standard fare for a long range PSR system, so it is thus "credible" that Western Hill did track MH-370.
So, put simply, if the Malaysian Government has simply "rotated the true track 69 degrees clockwise" from the "turn point" south of Penang, and then produced fake lat/long points for that "rotated track" and "fed it" to a gullible world, including the DSTG, the whole search is based on a falsehood.
Is it ?
I think it is, because, I think in their haste, that they inadvertantly "gave the game away", by making a "crucial" mistake in the heading of the aircraft during "the turn".
The radar site was to the north of the aircraft, and when they "rotated the plot 69 degrees clockwise" they were a little "sloppy" and put an unintended "kink" in it.
The "kink" is the proof of the "rotation".
If you "blow up" the track plot in the DSTG report, it is clear that when the aircraft was making the "SUPPOSED" right turn south of Penang, it clearly "overshot" the "apparent" intended heading to the northwest by quite a few degrees, before, "jinking left", to settle on the Mallaca Strait track.
Aircraft navigating waypoint to waypoint do not "overshoot" headings like that.
Now, returning to the Lido Slide as a whole - the "big picture", so to speak.
The "WHITE CIRCLE" (where there are no target returns, i.e., where "the track was lost") is easily explained.
The beginning of the "white hole" is apparently at Malaysian Time 02:07:16 (18:07:16) where MH-370 "descended below the radar horizon", as if it was intending to make a "straight in" approach for an intended landing at Medan on Runway 23 (the runway is 05/23), but, I contend this was "a deliberate ruse".
The end of the "white hole" is where MH-370 "reappeared" on radar, at apparently Malaysian Time 02:13:36 (08:13:36 UTC) which is 6 minutes and 20 seconds later, which is well after passing Medan at low level, when it again "climbed" back up "through the radar horizon", back into primary radar coverage, and continued it's climb back up to FL350".
The aircraft then continued on it's merry way, along Airway L774, before passing out of Western Hill's reach, just inside the west coast of Sumatra, on track to Merim, and beyond.
Any other supporting information for this theory ?
Returning to this (from above):-
(IV) An Indonesian radar in WESTERN Sumartra "WAS ACTIVE" at the time. (Secret for now - read on)
TNI-AU Radar Unit 234 Sibolga. This radar site is on the west coast of Sumartra, at and is equiped with a Thomson TRS 2215 D type radar.
(Sibolga TNI-AU - KOSEKHANUDNAS III -- Radar Unit 234 operating a Thomson TRS 2215 D type radar )
(ref: http://www.zone-interdite.net/P/zone.php...uedit=info )
Radar Unit 234 Sibolga, North Sumatera is located in the high country about 20 miles east of the town (approximately 1°52'45.43"N 99° 1'18.15"E).
It is the radar assigned to provide coverage for western Sumatera south of the coverage provided by the Sebang radar on Pulau We Island.
Unit 234's radar coverage reaches out beyond Bandar Udara Lasikin airport on Simalur Island and overlaps with Sebang in the north.
(ref: http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums...6242366/1/ )
Publicly, the Indonesians were very careful to only state that they did not "detect" MH-370 where the Malaysian Military said it was. This, to me, was entirely truthful, since it wasn't there, but it was also clearly evasive, in that they clouded the issue as to whether they may, or may not, have detected it, anywhere else, either in real time, or afterwards, having examined the tapes.
Examples:
(1) “Indonesian Defense Minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro has asserted that the military radar placed in Sabang, Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam — Indonesia’s westernmost point — did not detect missing flight MH370 or any other foreign aircraft crossing Indonesian airspace."
Source: 19 March 2014 article in the Jakarta Post.
(ref: http://jeffwise.net/2014/11/18/mh370-and...nt-page-1/ )
Assertion is True or False.
If True.
Conclusion: MH-370 did not "swing around" Ache.
Inference: MH-370 went elsewhere.
(2) As the language that the Indonesians used, the Jakarta post paraphrased it as “did not detect the missing MH370 in the area where the Malaysian military suggested as being the plane’s last detected position around Penang waters.”
Source: 19 March 2014 article in the Jakarta Post.
(ref: http://jeffwise.net/2014/11/18/mh370-and...nt-page-1/ )
Assertion is True or False.
If True.
Conclusion: MH-370 did not "swing around" Ache.
Inference: MH-370 went elsewhere.
(3) I remember, that in the early weeks after MH-370 disappeared, there was a report (which I can not find now unfortunately) of an Indonesian General (perhaps a Police General ?) saying quite emphatically, that they "knew" where MH-370 went, and I seem to remember that he was quickly silenced.
Conclusion:
(1) If Indonesian statements are true, then MH-370 clearly did not go up the Malacca Strait and around the northern tip of Ache Sumartra.
(2) If that is true, the only way MH-370 could meet the 18:27/28 utc arc was to fly ACROSS Sumartra.
(3) If (3 above) is true, ie, he "did know", then obviously the source of his "knowledge" was Radar Unit 234.
Consequences:
(1) If the aircraft did track via Medan, with an FMT at 18:31 utc, at 1.588 N 95.595 E, it adds about 300 nautical track miles to the southern flight path.
(2) The flight path thus crosses the equator at 95 east, true heading 197.75 degrees, and proceeds at an average 480 knots ground speed, for 2,720 nautical miles, arriving at a 7th arc intercept, coincident with the 00:30:00 utc terminator, at 41.661 South 79.646 East, in twilight, only 11 minutes prior to official dawn, at 00:19 utc.
Many assumptions granted, but "Food for Thought" none the less.
V45
The "Via Medan Theory".
The entire ATSB search for MH-370 in the SIO (Southern Indian Ocean) is based on what I think may be, and probably is, a "pivotal" falsehood.
I think this "pivotal falsehood", is the presumed north west turn, slightly south of, but close to, Penang, which was first revealed to the world, in the now infamous "Lido Slide", which also showed the subsequent equally presumed Malacca Strait flight path.
This flight path has been vigorously asserted to be true by the Malaysian Government, yet they steadfastly refuse to provide the raw primary radar data to prove it, for so-called, "security" reasons. The work of Guarded Don, who has detailed the capabilities of all the other radars in the area, has proved, to me at least, that the "Lido Track" can not be true.
As I speculated in June 2014, I think that the aircraft actually turned only slightly, south west from Penang, towards Medan, not north west, up the Malacca Strait. I think the subsequent track was on Airway (L774) to waypoint Merim, and then onwards towards waypoints Uprob and possibly Isbix, but I think it actually turned south (the real FMT) around 18:30 UTC, between Milam and Uprod, in a position approximately 300 nautical miles, virtually due south, of the currently assumed FMT-zone, north of Ache. In essence, this 300 nautical miles, is "additional range" that the aircraft has available to it to fly south, that no one "in authority" anywhere, (Malaysia, Australia, USA or UK) will admit to.
My reasons for thinking this is the correct scenario are as follows.
Let us assume (as_1) that MH-370 was "in fact" in the vicinity of Penang at 17:52 utc.
Let us assume (as_2) that Malaysian Military Primary Radar DID ACTUALLY TRACK MH-370 (not some other aircraft, or signal).
Let us assume (as_3) that I am wrong, and that MH370 did actually turn north west and fly up the Malacca Strait.
The first question we have to ask is:-
If the track is "truthfull", why did no other PSR in Thailand, Indonesia or Malaysia, that the laws of physics tell us should have seen it, DID NOT SEE IT, going up the Malacca Strait ?
If the aircraft was truly there, Guarded Don's work conclusively shows that there is no credible reason why they did not see it, if they were active.
Consequently, the Malacca Strait track produced by the Malaysian Government, may be (must be) false.
Second question:
Why "might" the Malaysian Government have wanted to produced a false track ?
Consider the timeing of events.
(1) The "Lido Slides" were revealed to the world at the breifing for the Chineese next of kin at the Lido Hotel in Beijing on the 21st March 2014.
(2) This was thirteen days after MH-370 disappeared.
(3) The Malaysian Government had received the Inmarsat data at least 6 days prior to this.
(4) The Malaysian Government therefore had at least 6 days, plenty of time, to examine, and fully understand the implications of the Inmarsat data, whilst all the time, steadfasly denying the significance of it to the world.
(5) The Malaysian Government knew however, that sooner or later, the Inmarsat data would leak out, one way or another, and that independent examination of it would prove to the world, that MH-370 had gone to the SIO.
(6) The Malaysian Government also knew, from their own radar data, where MH-370 had "actually" gone, but that HAD TO REMAIN SECRET.
(7) So, the Malaysian Government had a problem. They knew where it went (over Medan), but for a host of political reasons could not say so. They needed to come up with a scenario that was compatible with the Inmarsat data, such that when that data was released, whatever the "supposed" flight path was, it would be accepted by the world as "genuine".
(8) A simple look at the map was all that was needed to devise a "suitable" and "compatible" scenario.
The requirements were:-
(a) since all other nations had denied seeing the aircraft on their radars, it could not track over another country, particularly where it was "known" that those countries had "known to be active" radars "at the "relevant times".
(b) Since there had been no reports of any sightings post 17:52 utc, any track that met the requirement to "meet" the 18:28 utc "ping" was both necessary and sufficient, provided it complied with the rquirements of (a).
© Malaysian Military Intelligence (the SECRET stuff) KNEW that:-
(i) All relevant Thai radars "were active" at the time,
(ii) All relevant Indonesian radars in southern Sumartra "were active" at the time,
(iii) All relevant Indonesian radars in the north and north-east of Sumartra "were not active" at the time.
(d) Malaysian Military Intelligence (the SECRET stuff), however, DID NOT KNOW that:-
(IV) An Indonesian radar in WESTERN Sumartra "WAS ACTIVE" at the time. (Secret for now - read on)
(e) Taken together, (a) (b) © and (d parts i, ii, and iii), eliminate all areas other than the Malacca Strait.
(f) The Malacca Strait becomes the only option, iff (if, and only if) there is no "inconvenient gottya" in the Malacca Strait, and "there could have been".
Consider these factors:-
(i) Shipping in the Malacc Strait.
This waterway is one of the busiest in the world. It is a marine "choke point".
(ii) Days pass, no "CIVILIAN" sightings of any kind, visual, or radar (highly unlikely that a commercial ship navigation radar would even "detect" let alone "record" an aircraft anyway, even if it was there, so, it should be a safe bet that no one will question that), IN the Malacca Strait.
(iii) The "search" was by now in full swing in the Malacca Strait, and had found nothing.
(iv) So, the only thing that COULD, POSSIBLY, "bring the deception plan undone" (at some future time) MIGHT BE, a military ship, with a good "air seach radar system" (which effectively means frigate size or larger) that would in fact, as standard operating procedure for the military, be tracking, identifying and/or classifying all air traffic/targets, 24/7 while at sea.
The question became, was there such a ship out there that night ?
(a) If the answer (from Military Intelligence and Shipping Authorities) was NO, then no problem.
(b) If the answer was YES, the next question would be, WHOSE WAS IT ?
The danger for the Malaysian Government was that if such a ship was there, recording ALL air traffic, it would become impossible to "sell" a Malacca Strait track that "did not exist".
Most Navies would not say anything, but a "non aligned" Navy, particularly one with a "significant interest" (say if there had been a Chinese PLAN frigate in the area), "might" say:-
"During the time of MH-370's allegded transit of the nominated area, we tracked thirty seven aircraft.
We positively identified all of them.
Here is the list.
None of them were MH-370.
There were no other unidentified targets or tracks.
MH-370 was not there."
Such an outcome would have been most unfortunate for the Malaysian Government.
Fortunately for the Malaysian Government, and Unfortunately for the world, there was apparently no such capable ship out there, that could have "confirmed or denied" the Malacca Strait track, at least not one that anyone knows anything about, or if they do, no one is talking about it.
Consequently, a FORENSIC examination of all shipping, from 200 nautical miles south of a line between Penang and Medan, all the way to the northern approaches to the entrance to the Straits, on the night of 7th/8th March 2014, is required, to resolve this issue.
Now, returning to the Lido Hotel.
It was quite clear to "all and sundry" that the slide showing "the looping turn" at Igari was rubbish, yet for some reason (unfathomable to me), the one slide showing the Malacca Strait track has seemingly been accepted as "gospel", by everyone.
If the Malacca Strait slide is truthful, why did the Malaysian Government even produce the "loopy" slide at all, especially one so obviously ludicrous ?
Consider this scenario.
The malaysian Government had been "playing for time" for the two weeks leading up to the Lido Hotel NOK breifing.
(1) At the "eleventh hour" so to speak, they realised that since the "true track" they had recorded over Medan (from the Western Hill radar) obviously did meet the 18:27/28 utc arc "on time", that any doubts that may have existed that it "was" MH-370 were dispelled.
(2) Knowing that the north eastern Sumartra radars were "inactive" at the time, created a "radar black hole" in the western parts of the Malacca Straits, so, they could produce a track in the western part of the Malacca Straits that was plausible and that was sufficiently far from Thai radars that they could plausibly "ply with altitudes" to suggest that the aircraft was below the radar horizon of those radar heads, and thus invisible.
(3) So, create the track using the "true" returns, but just "rotate them in azimuth" about 70 degrees or so clockwise, and produce the graphic (in haste) and fly off to Peking/Beijing pronto.
Now, my view of all this is as follows.
The only "apparent" primary radar track data for MH-370 "west of Penang" is the Malaysian radar track from the Malaysian Western Hill Primary Radar site (5.424700°N 100.251070°E). This radar did track MH-370 all the way to just inside the west coast of Sumatra on Airway L774, and I think the "proof" is easy to see, from the now infamous "LIDO SLIDE".
Proceed as follows.
If you rotate the radial counter-clockwise down to Airway L774, you obtain the position on the airway that is 200nm from Butterworth, which is at 03.0718N 098.0028E on approximately the 226 radial.
The "rotation" of the TRUE radial Butterworth to the FAKE radial Butterworth is 295 to 226, i.e., counter-clockwise, 69 degrees.
Just hold that thought for a moment.
The recent DSTG (formerly DSTO) report must be based on the Western Hill Primary Radar Site data, since there is (apparently) no other primary radar data available from any other site, in any country.
What is significant however, is that the DSTG specifically state, and they are very-very careful to "highlight" the fact, is that they are working with data provided by the Malaysian Government that gives:-
<quote> Latitude, Longitude and Altitude at Ten Second Intervals. </quote>.
NOTE: This is NOT the ACTUAL radar data itself.
Thus, this "data" is "uncertified" to be true.
Now, "ten second" data implies Primary Radar Antenna sweep rotation of six revolutions per minute, which is standard fare for a long range PSR system, so it is thus "credible" that Western Hill did track MH-370.
So, put simply, if the Malaysian Government has simply "rotated the true track 69 degrees clockwise" from the "turn point" south of Penang, and then produced fake lat/long points for that "rotated track" and "fed it" to a gullible world, including the DSTG, the whole search is based on a falsehood.
Is it ?
I think it is, because, I think in their haste, that they inadvertantly "gave the game away", by making a "crucial" mistake in the heading of the aircraft during "the turn".
The radar site was to the north of the aircraft, and when they "rotated the plot 69 degrees clockwise" they were a little "sloppy" and put an unintended "kink" in it.
The "kink" is the proof of the "rotation".
If you "blow up" the track plot in the DSTG report, it is clear that when the aircraft was making the "SUPPOSED" right turn south of Penang, it clearly "overshot" the "apparent" intended heading to the northwest by quite a few degrees, before, "jinking left", to settle on the Mallaca Strait track.
Aircraft navigating waypoint to waypoint do not "overshoot" headings like that.
Now, returning to the Lido Slide as a whole - the "big picture", so to speak.
The "WHITE CIRCLE" (where there are no target returns, i.e., where "the track was lost") is easily explained.
The beginning of the "white hole" is apparently at Malaysian Time 02:07:16 (18:07:16) where MH-370 "descended below the radar horizon", as if it was intending to make a "straight in" approach for an intended landing at Medan on Runway 23 (the runway is 05/23), but, I contend this was "a deliberate ruse".
The end of the "white hole" is where MH-370 "reappeared" on radar, at apparently Malaysian Time 02:13:36 (08:13:36 UTC) which is 6 minutes and 20 seconds later, which is well after passing Medan at low level, when it again "climbed" back up "through the radar horizon", back into primary radar coverage, and continued it's climb back up to FL350".
The aircraft then continued on it's merry way, along Airway L774, before passing out of Western Hill's reach, just inside the west coast of Sumatra, on track to Merim, and beyond.
Any other supporting information for this theory ?
Returning to this (from above):-
(IV) An Indonesian radar in WESTERN Sumartra "WAS ACTIVE" at the time. (Secret for now - read on)
TNI-AU Radar Unit 234 Sibolga. This radar site is on the west coast of Sumartra, at and is equiped with a Thomson TRS 2215 D type radar.
(Sibolga TNI-AU - KOSEKHANUDNAS III -- Radar Unit 234 operating a Thomson TRS 2215 D type radar )
(ref: http://www.zone-interdite.net/P/zone.php...uedit=info )
Radar Unit 234 Sibolga, North Sumatera is located in the high country about 20 miles east of the town (approximately 1°52'45.43"N 99° 1'18.15"E).
It is the radar assigned to provide coverage for western Sumatera south of the coverage provided by the Sebang radar on Pulau We Island.
Unit 234's radar coverage reaches out beyond Bandar Udara Lasikin airport on Simalur Island and overlaps with Sebang in the north.
(ref: http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums...6242366/1/ )
Publicly, the Indonesians were very careful to only state that they did not "detect" MH-370 where the Malaysian Military said it was. This, to me, was entirely truthful, since it wasn't there, but it was also clearly evasive, in that they clouded the issue as to whether they may, or may not, have detected it, anywhere else, either in real time, or afterwards, having examined the tapes.
Examples:
(1) “Indonesian Defense Minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro has asserted that the military radar placed in Sabang, Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam — Indonesia’s westernmost point — did not detect missing flight MH370 or any other foreign aircraft crossing Indonesian airspace."
Source: 19 March 2014 article in the Jakarta Post.
(ref: http://jeffwise.net/2014/11/18/mh370-and...nt-page-1/ )
Assertion is True or False.
If True.
Conclusion: MH-370 did not "swing around" Ache.
Inference: MH-370 went elsewhere.
(2) As the language that the Indonesians used, the Jakarta post paraphrased it as “did not detect the missing MH370 in the area where the Malaysian military suggested as being the plane’s last detected position around Penang waters.”
Source: 19 March 2014 article in the Jakarta Post.
(ref: http://jeffwise.net/2014/11/18/mh370-and...nt-page-1/ )
Assertion is True or False.
If True.
Conclusion: MH-370 did not "swing around" Ache.
Inference: MH-370 went elsewhere.
(3) I remember, that in the early weeks after MH-370 disappeared, there was a report (which I can not find now unfortunately) of an Indonesian General (perhaps a Police General ?) saying quite emphatically, that they "knew" where MH-370 went, and I seem to remember that he was quickly silenced.
Conclusion:
(1) If Indonesian statements are true, then MH-370 clearly did not go up the Malacca Strait and around the northern tip of Ache Sumartra.
(2) If that is true, the only way MH-370 could meet the 18:27/28 utc arc was to fly ACROSS Sumartra.
(3) If (3 above) is true, ie, he "did know", then obviously the source of his "knowledge" was Radar Unit 234.
Consequences:
(1) If the aircraft did track via Medan, with an FMT at 18:31 utc, at 1.588 N 95.595 E, it adds about 300 nautical track miles to the southern flight path.
(2) The flight path thus crosses the equator at 95 east, true heading 197.75 degrees, and proceeds at an average 480 knots ground speed, for 2,720 nautical miles, arriving at a 7th arc intercept, coincident with the 00:30:00 utc terminator, at 41.661 South 79.646 East, in twilight, only 11 minutes prior to official dawn, at 00:19 utc.
Many assumptions granted, but "Food for Thought" none the less.
V45