[Peetwo]

Latest paper from Bobby Ulich, made public 16 November 2015, titled - Identification of MH370 Route, By Analysis of Final Major Turns (Addendum #5 ):

1 Introduction


This paper presents the most recent results of my MH370 flight route modeling. The goals of this work are as follows:

1. to build and exercise an integrating-path "Final Major Turns" (FMT) Model with 1-second time resolution,

2. to compensate the measured satellite Burst Frequency Offset (BFO) data for channel-dependent frequency biases, and obtain a "calibrated" BFO (CBFO) data set for direct comparison with FMT model predictions,

3. to use this new FMT Model and this calibrated BFO data set to explain, if possible, the unexpected CBFO values in the "Log-on / Log-off Acknowledge" messages,

4. to evaluate what constraints are placed on the FMT path by the satellite Burst Timing Offset (BTO) and calibrated BFO data, including the "Log-on / Log-off Acknowledge" CBFO at 18:25:34 UTC,

5. to determine, if possible, how many turns and altitude changes were made between 18:22 and 19:41 UTC,

6. to determine the True Air Speed (TAS) and Mach number and, if possible, what speed control mode was in use,

7. to build a 1-minute time resolution speed control model from the moment of the initial diversion from the planned route until fuel exhaustion, integrating air temperature and wind data to achieve high accuracy,

8. to use this speed control model to estimate time-variable fuel on board, aircraft weight, Mach number, TAS, air miles traveled, endurance, and range (in terms of Equivalent Still Air Distance, or ESAD),

9. to integrate the high-time-resolution FMT model and the speed control model with my existing Route Optimizer so that an optimum candidate route could be fit simultaneously using all three models,

10. to exercise this multi-component "MH370 Model" so that it generates a route consistent with all calibrated BFO and BTO data and with the Boeing B777-200ER fuel consumption tables, using assumed air speed and lateral navigation (LNAV) auto-pilot modes,

11. to identify, If possible, one or more FMT routes that are consistent with all the satellite data, including the "Log-on / Log-off Acknowledge" CBFO,

12. to determine the most likely southbound route, including its intersections at the 6th and 7th handshake arcs that can establish a new search area, if one is needed,

13. to interpret, if possible, the final two CBFO measurements at 00:19 UTC with respect to turn and descent rates, and

14. to establish, if possible, a justification for establishing a meaningful search width limit at the 7th arc.

 
&...conclusions/findings?

2 Major Findings

Here is a summary of my major findings:

1. A single route has been found that is consistent with all the satellite data, including the previously unexplained CBFOs from the "Log-on / Log-off Acknowledge" messages at 18:25:34 and 00:19:37.

2. The speed control mode was Long Range Cruise (or ECON speed mode with a Cost Index mimicking LRC).

3. Waypoints were used to establish the FMT course changes.

4. Turns were made at 1.59 degrees per second (at a bank angle of 35 degrees).

5. Climbs were made at 2,000 fpm.


6. Shortly after the initial diversion near IGARI, a climb was made from FL350 to FL360 for the initial return to Malaysia.

7. There were three turns and a second climb during the FMT period from 18:22 to 18:48.

8. Turn #1 was a turn-around to the left for a planned (second) return to Malaysia.

9. During Turn #1, a second climb was begun to FL410.

10. At the completion of Turn #1, a second turn-around (Turn #2) was initiated in order to reach SANOB.

11. At SANOB, Turn #3 was made to the left for WITN (Maimun Saleh Airport).

12. No descent was made for a landing attempt.

13. After WITN was passed, the LNAV continued the course in True Track Hold mode at 191.9 degrees.

14. No further turns or climbs were made.

15. The 18:40 unanswered satellite phone call occurred about four minutes after the WITN flyover.

16. The air speed was extremely steady, varying from the nominal Long Range Cruise profile by < 1 knot RMS from 17:22 to 00:11.

17. The endurance and range calculations are fully consistent with this route. There was sufficient fuel to fly it.

18. The satellite BTO and CBFO data are fully consistent with this route.

19. The identified route intersects the 7th handshake arc at 39.61 S, 85.10 E.

20. The current ATSB search area does not include the location I have identified.

21. The current search area was apparently defined by the ATSB using two assumptions about the "final turn" that now appear to be incorrect.

22. More southerly points along the 7th arc are proved to be feasible from a maximum range perspective because the “final turn” occurred from a location farther South and the altitude was higher than was assumed.

In 'summary' page 40:

In summary, Figure 19 shows my predicted location overlaid on the ATSB Figure 5. Clearly it lies within the ATSB’s “constrained autopilot dynamics” probability distribution, although it is outside their “MRC Boundary.” As I explained previously, I believe the true range limit is significantly farther south and includes my predicted location.

Figure 20 shows my predicted location relative to the most recent ATSB “Indicative Search Area.” It is interesting to note that the ATSB has already extended their search area to the southwest along the 7th arc several times, just not far enough (yet) to reach my predicted location. A modest further extension to about 84.6 E would include a sufficient region around my predicted location to insure success if my calculations are correct.

Reserving comment - MTF P2