Final Waypoint Theory
Simply put, the main points are:-
I am convinced that:
(a) It was not an accident - but a meticulously planned and perfectly executed "vanishing".
(b) Since the ATSB has never validated the calibration of the 6th and 7th arcs by making measurements "at sea" for dawn ionespheric conditions, that they are suspect. I think they should be closer to 3F-1 nadir as shown - due to L band ray path bending and delay effects - which combined - mean that the BTO's for the 6th and 7th arcs (00:11z and 00:19z) are more than they actually were, thus, the "range" is shorter.
c) The Mission Plan ( deduced ) was to ditch just after local dawn.
(d) Since the plan required ditching at/post dawn, it was necessary to "pre-calculate" a "flight plan" that allowed for:-
(i) the position of the solar terminator at 00:00 zulu, and for "one tenth hour increments" to account for possible time delays at departure, enroute, and or engine failure, which could increase "endurance" at low altitude at slower speeds.
(ii) a range of latitudes commensurate with probable maximum range and a lesser maximum endurance range.
(iii) to account for all of the above for a range of possible flight dates.
(iv) this required a fool proof navigation plan to the SIO, ready to go - at a moments notice - which must ensure that:-
(iv-1) the track flown from the equatorial crossing point (must be 95E) is "parallel" to the advancing dawn sunline - i.e. solar terminator.
(iv-2) this requires a "simple to remember" destination way-point that is "day of the year specific".
I will not bore you with all the calculations and specifics, since the attached image shows the basics.
I am convinced the final way-point used was 69 south 69 east.
I have plotted two "zones" for the search, the more southern based on the ATSB Arcs, and the other, based on my shorter arcs.
I hope Richard Cole does not mind, but see below to show terminator and 69s 69e track.
Richard_Cole_chart_with_added_00z_terminator_and_track_00_95e_to_69s_69e .jpg Size: 113.78 KB Downloads: 20
Simply put, the main points are:-
I am convinced that:
(a) It was not an accident - but a meticulously planned and perfectly executed "vanishing".
(b) Since the ATSB has never validated the calibration of the 6th and 7th arcs by making measurements "at sea" for dawn ionespheric conditions, that they are suspect. I think they should be closer to 3F-1 nadir as shown - due to L band ray path bending and delay effects - which combined - mean that the BTO's for the 6th and 7th arcs (00:11z and 00:19z) are more than they actually were, thus, the "range" is shorter.
c) The Mission Plan ( deduced ) was to ditch just after local dawn.
(d) Since the plan required ditching at/post dawn, it was necessary to "pre-calculate" a "flight plan" that allowed for:-
(i) the position of the solar terminator at 00:00 zulu, and for "one tenth hour increments" to account for possible time delays at departure, enroute, and or engine failure, which could increase "endurance" at low altitude at slower speeds.
(ii) a range of latitudes commensurate with probable maximum range and a lesser maximum endurance range.
(iii) to account for all of the above for a range of possible flight dates.
(iv) this required a fool proof navigation plan to the SIO, ready to go - at a moments notice - which must ensure that:-
(iv-1) the track flown from the equatorial crossing point (must be 95E) is "parallel" to the advancing dawn sunline - i.e. solar terminator.
(iv-2) this requires a "simple to remember" destination way-point that is "day of the year specific".
I will not bore you with all the calculations and specifics, since the attached image shows the basics.
I am convinced the final way-point used was 69 south 69 east.
I have plotted two "zones" for the search, the more southern based on the ATSB Arcs, and the other, based on my shorter arcs.
I hope Richard Cole does not mind, but see below to show terminator and 69s 69e track.
Richard_Cole_chart_with_added_00z_terminator_and_track_00_95e_to_69s_69e .jpg Size: 113.78 KB Downloads: 20