[Peetwo]

Thanks TK – solid, good sense always welcome.  A rarity when MH370 is mentioned.  I’m pleased the French are not shooting ‘from the hip’ and a dialogue like yours explains why.  Problem of course for us is being ‘bloody pilots’ the finesse of ‘investigation’ and the subtleties of complex ‘engineering’ are a mystery to most.  I dare say the wise French owls will give us detailed analysis; in one form another , just as soon as they are sure.  Nice to know that at last, no faeary tales will be spun; or, phoney ‘experts’ will be polishing and spinning.

"I’m pleased the French are not shooting ‘from the hip’ and a dialogue like yours explains why." 


Have a lot of respect for the work of the BEA. I've no doubt that their analysis will be thorough, with no stone left unturned. 


Part of the problem regarding MH370, is the "phony" experts. People over-claiming expertise & providing information that is consistently wrong. Generally speaking, it appears that people's perceptions of expertise is somewhat relative.  Come across like you're educated & know something (even if you don't possess relevant quals/expertise), & you'll likely fool many. But for those of us who work in the industry, it is often much easier to see past all the puffery & BS. 

Just sayin!

Yes excellent stuff TK & while we're at it pardon my ignorance on the 'nose rib' hole etc. I am but a simple knuckledragger.

While on the subject of 'phony' or 'wannabe' experts it is worth reflecting on a post of mine from early back in 'the search for IP' and may help to explain why members of PAIN have such concerns that the current crop of executive managers/commissioners at the ATSB are in charge of overseeing the MH370 SIO deep sea search - #post15:

While I'm raiding that UP thread I thought it worthwhile regurgitating 4 posts off page 2 that partly explains the slide of the bureau. It is for mine extremely sad that the BASI/ATSB has gone from a small, poorly resourced air safety watchdog that used to punch well above its weight and was held in high esteem throughout the aviation safety fraternity worldwide; to an insipid non-independent AAI that panders to the political/commercial interests of various DIPs to higher profile investigations, while playing submissive lapdog to the big R regulator behemoth CASA...   

   

Moving on and overnight Ben Sandilands put out another (IMO) excellent, thought provoking piece for consumption by dedicated MH370 followers - Surprise! Concrete slabs found in Maldives not from MH370

[/url]However for mine the most informative & thought provoking bit of that blog by far was (& continues to be) in the comments...  

[url=http://en.gravatar.com/site/signup/] Brock McEwen
Posted August 15, 2015 at 2:24 am |
Hi Ben – great piece, as always.

You mentioned CSIRO’s drift study, which you (correctly) describe as suggesting Réunion as a POSSIBLE first shoreline for MH370 debris. Here is my latest paper, aimed at trying to flesh out the (a priori) PROBABILITY that this would be so:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B-r3yua...sp=sharing

This means that, just like the radar non-detection of the southern leg of its flight path, the acoustic non-detection of its impact, search leadership’s inconsistency between decisions taken and what their own data supported, and the side-scan non-detection of its sunken debris, we must add non-detection of its floating debris on WA shores to the long list of coincidences proponents of the current search area must willfully ignore.



Tango
Posted August 15, 2015 at 3:03 am |
We may have to expand that to no island or continent unturned in the Malaysian unremitting search to create nonsense. (worse actually but I will leave it at that)
The other element is no one has taken a 777 with that weight and turned the engines off and seen what it does (terminal dive theory). Computers (simulators) are only as good as the input.

As they are not intended to work that way, the only way to see what a real aircraft would do is test it and then feed that info back into the algorithms.

Ergo, while I firmly believe they have the right area I also believe that any small mis-calculation in the ping data and assumptions as well as how the aircraft went down could put it far enough out of the arch that they will not find it.

No ones fault, they did their best with something that was never envisioned and its hodge podge at best.

Tango
Posted August 15, 2015 at 3:21 am |
And not to be outdone the Russian released a recording of the CIA plotting MH17 shoot down.
http://www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-f...story.html

The dictatorship beat goes on.


Ben Sandilands
Posted August 15, 2015 at 8:11 am |
malcolmbmunro,
Have made just that point about AF447 many times. It took 22 months to locate the wreckage of a jet with an impact point known to within 10 kilometres and with a fully functional ACARS system (and a tragically dysfunctional trio of pilots in the cockpit).
The wreckage did not hide itself in the comlexities of the underwater terrain. It came down on an almost level and obstacle free abyssal plain.

Brock,
I think everything we learned from AF447′s discovery explains why nothing has been found in the south Indian Ocean so far. Similarly I agree with a widely held view in Australia that the coast line of Western Australia is so empty, and so remote, and very intricate in some areas, that it may well hold the skeletons of hundreds of shipwreck victims, a few dating back centuries, and some more recently from those seeking to arrive by boat. Over 1000 people are known to have drowned unobserved attempting to sail to Australia from Indonesia this century. Not a single piece of wreckage nor personal items have been recovered from some vessels that departed from that country with over 300 people on board.

As to radar, don’t believe the claims made about the brilliance of a national made system. It has never worked as intended. If I was unkind I’d compare it to the Maginot Line in France, except that it is pointed in the right direction, but functionally blind or unreliable, or even, according to some sources, so useless it is largely unmanned and switched off.

I have my suspicions about criminal activity on MH370 but no proof. My expectation is that more identifiable debris will be found somewhere and that the sunk wreckage will indeed be found more or less within the expected area, which is a bit like saying I expect something the size of a few shipping contains with specific contents will eventually be located somewhere in Texas, or the Sahara.

The more ‘far out’ scenarios about MH370 will end up being embarrassments, like fields southern Siberia that just happen to be the same size as the breadth and length of a 777-200.

As to how or why it happened, we just don’t have the crucial details we need to come up with anything compelling.

While we are there it is well worth taking the time to read the latest paper from Brock McEwan - here is an extract from that paper:





MTF...P2