But - Did Murphy get it wrong?
If you look for one word with which to define an 'old saying' – a thing like 'measure twice; cut once' about 70 words will appear from which you may choose one to use. In short, they mostly represent a potted version of 'collective wisdom' based on real experience. Like the measure twice advice; must have saved millions of apprentice carpenters many a thick ear from their masters (or not as the case may be). The fool ain't rambling, but trying to bring into focus the absolute 'truths' which support the likes of 'Murphy's Law' which is an abridged version of 'Sod's Law of the ocean'. Both succinctly 'frame' the rules which govern aviation 'common sense'.
Lampplugh - “Aviation, in itself, is not inherently dangerous. But to an even greater degree than the sea, it is terribly unforgiving of any carelessness, incapacity, or neglect.”
Carelessness – Incapacity – Neglect -in how many case histories have these three villains played a role? IMO – lots of. Conversely, timidity, pedantry and fiscal motivation are on a par when 'push comes to shove' and the investigation is suitably eloquent. There are no 'rules' which adequately govern the nature of some human beings. Those self governing rules, which are hard wired through DNA and 'circumstance' they form the 'nature of the beast.'
“What for centuries raised man above the beast is not the cudgel but the irresistible power of unarmed truth.”
Just for the sake of discussion; let's call the CASA examinations 'the cudgel' – the thing which drives without options to 'study'. Why? Well there are 'things' which must be known; essential not only to the safety and survival of both ship and passengers, but to avoid damage, to avoid danger, to operate with knowledge and to ensure a safe return home at shift's end. Tedious and often boring is the study but, nevertheless, it must be done and the 'exams' must be passed at an acceptable level. Hand up all those who have not ever picked up a Met book since passing the exam; hands up all those who have asked why do we need all this crap; and hands up all those who disregard or even hold in contempt the words offered in the day's weather forecast.; or those who simply failed (gave up?) to translate the nuances from the 'coded' messages? Some (many) of the 'other' subjects are treated in this cavalier manner – who needs 'navigation' when Garmin is on the job? Who needs to understand the engine; or why 'reserves' must be carried; and hands up all those who firmly believe they were 'kissed on the arse by the gods' and therefore not only immune, but immortal?
“After all, you’re only an immortal until someone manages to kill you. After that, you were just long-lived.”
Accidents? Well they happen; the rule of unintended consequences (shit happens) much like Sod's and Murphy's law they are always – always in play. Much time, money, effort and energy is expended (particularly in aviation) in reducing the percentage chance of 'unintended consequence'. And yet, despite these efforts, occasionally the holes in Reasons famous cheese slices do line up. Investigations are made, conclusions drawn, reports presented etc. It's quite a party. The end results often helpful; sometimes even insightful; rarely ignored and mostly 'beneficial' in some way. But what of the 'intentional' deliberate act which ends with tragic (expensive) consequences?. Almost every year we see repeat performances of the same events which leave so much 'trouble' in their wake; what of those?
“All history is the history of unintended consequences.”
The classic example is the long list of VFR qualified loosing the aircraft in instrument conditions; across the world. They call it 'unintentional' which, IMHO, is Bollocks. Scud running, low level flying and 'ice' management demand a great degree of both training & skill; and, a natural ability – same with any specialized operation; like fast jet off a carrier, in the night. Tricky stuff – potentially lethal; both instances common knowledge. Would anyone allow a freshly minted PPL to crop dust; or strap 'em into a Hornet and say “off ya go – good luck”. Of course not; and yet every so often someone will push through a shaky weather forecast; forget to leave the back door open; end up in cloud as a prelude to a final sortie in a hearse? It does not make sense. Aye, we've all done it, but - done 'it' right; one either wins the bet or; pulls up at the bowser of a friendly Aero club for a calming piddle a smoke and a coffee: with a story to tell. It is a fine balance between brainless bravado and the cool, calculated cunning required to master the art of managing a flight. The solution? Well start with the mirror; start with the books; start with the accident reports; end with a serious 'plan' which provides 'gates' to a better place or an alternative route. “If it all turns to worms at 'Kickinatinalong' it will be a left turn towards Blue Haven for a break and a re-think.
“There's a fine line between heroic persistence and foolish stubbornness. Sometimes the best kind of grit is gritting our teeth and turning around”
I reckon Murphy (eta alia) got it right; hit the old nail on the head. There are millions of words written which reflect on the 'fact' that no matter how careful or brave or dopey – despite the hundreds of calculations.. Fate is indeed the Hunter; and
“The best laid schemes o' mice an' men
Gang aft a-gley.”
Right then; I know, I know, back in my box; there to plot and scheme my way out of the long list of DT generated 'chores' 'done before the visitors arrive.' Heaves a great sigh; hides the smokes and looks for boots. Exeunt stable door.
Selah -.-
If you look for one word with which to define an 'old saying' – a thing like 'measure twice; cut once' about 70 words will appear from which you may choose one to use. In short, they mostly represent a potted version of 'collective wisdom' based on real experience. Like the measure twice advice; must have saved millions of apprentice carpenters many a thick ear from their masters (or not as the case may be). The fool ain't rambling, but trying to bring into focus the absolute 'truths' which support the likes of 'Murphy's Law' which is an abridged version of 'Sod's Law of the ocean'. Both succinctly 'frame' the rules which govern aviation 'common sense'.
Lampplugh - “Aviation, in itself, is not inherently dangerous. But to an even greater degree than the sea, it is terribly unforgiving of any carelessness, incapacity, or neglect.”
Carelessness – Incapacity – Neglect -in how many case histories have these three villains played a role? IMO – lots of. Conversely, timidity, pedantry and fiscal motivation are on a par when 'push comes to shove' and the investigation is suitably eloquent. There are no 'rules' which adequately govern the nature of some human beings. Those self governing rules, which are hard wired through DNA and 'circumstance' they form the 'nature of the beast.'
“What for centuries raised man above the beast is not the cudgel but the irresistible power of unarmed truth.”
Just for the sake of discussion; let's call the CASA examinations 'the cudgel' – the thing which drives without options to 'study'. Why? Well there are 'things' which must be known; essential not only to the safety and survival of both ship and passengers, but to avoid damage, to avoid danger, to operate with knowledge and to ensure a safe return home at shift's end. Tedious and often boring is the study but, nevertheless, it must be done and the 'exams' must be passed at an acceptable level. Hand up all those who have not ever picked up a Met book since passing the exam; hands up all those who have asked why do we need all this crap; and hands up all those who disregard or even hold in contempt the words offered in the day's weather forecast.; or those who simply failed (gave up?) to translate the nuances from the 'coded' messages? Some (many) of the 'other' subjects are treated in this cavalier manner – who needs 'navigation' when Garmin is on the job? Who needs to understand the engine; or why 'reserves' must be carried; and hands up all those who firmly believe they were 'kissed on the arse by the gods' and therefore not only immune, but immortal?
“After all, you’re only an immortal until someone manages to kill you. After that, you were just long-lived.”
Accidents? Well they happen; the rule of unintended consequences (shit happens) much like Sod's and Murphy's law they are always – always in play. Much time, money, effort and energy is expended (particularly in aviation) in reducing the percentage chance of 'unintended consequence'. And yet, despite these efforts, occasionally the holes in Reasons famous cheese slices do line up. Investigations are made, conclusions drawn, reports presented etc. It's quite a party. The end results often helpful; sometimes even insightful; rarely ignored and mostly 'beneficial' in some way. But what of the 'intentional' deliberate act which ends with tragic (expensive) consequences?. Almost every year we see repeat performances of the same events which leave so much 'trouble' in their wake; what of those?
“All history is the history of unintended consequences.”
The classic example is the long list of VFR qualified loosing the aircraft in instrument conditions; across the world. They call it 'unintentional' which, IMHO, is Bollocks. Scud running, low level flying and 'ice' management demand a great degree of both training & skill; and, a natural ability – same with any specialized operation; like fast jet off a carrier, in the night. Tricky stuff – potentially lethal; both instances common knowledge. Would anyone allow a freshly minted PPL to crop dust; or strap 'em into a Hornet and say “off ya go – good luck”. Of course not; and yet every so often someone will push through a shaky weather forecast; forget to leave the back door open; end up in cloud as a prelude to a final sortie in a hearse? It does not make sense. Aye, we've all done it, but - done 'it' right; one either wins the bet or; pulls up at the bowser of a friendly Aero club for a calming piddle a smoke and a coffee: with a story to tell. It is a fine balance between brainless bravado and the cool, calculated cunning required to master the art of managing a flight. The solution? Well start with the mirror; start with the books; start with the accident reports; end with a serious 'plan' which provides 'gates' to a better place or an alternative route. “If it all turns to worms at 'Kickinatinalong' it will be a left turn towards Blue Haven for a break and a re-think.
“There's a fine line between heroic persistence and foolish stubbornness. Sometimes the best kind of grit is gritting our teeth and turning around”
I reckon Murphy (eta alia) got it right; hit the old nail on the head. There are millions of words written which reflect on the 'fact' that no matter how careful or brave or dopey – despite the hundreds of calculations.. Fate is indeed the Hunter; and
“The best laid schemes o' mice an' men
Gang aft a-gley.”
Right then; I know, I know, back in my box; there to plot and scheme my way out of the long list of DT generated 'chores' 'done before the visitors arrive.' Heaves a great sigh; hides the smokes and looks for boots. Exeunt stable door.
Selah -.-