Of Brass Tacks, the laws of Probability and Statistics.
“There are 3 kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”
On reflection; we may (with a shudder) effectively dismiss outright lies in the 'Ministers's' latest attempt to pacify a potential politicaL 'disagreement' which may (perhaps) affect the voting: (although I would disagree with that assumption). However, it is a 'truth' that:-
“Federal Transport Minister Catherine King has told Airservices it must speed up its response to Brisbane Airport’s noise action plan, and has given the air traffic control body until November 30 to implement a key changes.”
It sounds right; probably even believed by those who are all upset by aircraft noise; they can believe that ASA was 'told'. Hell, I 'told' my Budgie to shut up the other day – made little difference. Unless there is a clear 'directive' – ordering both airport and ASA to 'make it happen'; they will simply roll off the top and continue as pleases. Oh; but there is one – No there ain't – we have a directive which “has the effect:” and etc. Take a look at the cast and crew involved in the 'Transport Reference Committee' gab fest scheduled Friday 20/07/24 – talk about taking a knife to a gun-fight. The right 'boxes' will be ticked, tea will be served and; at the end of the shift; the same result as anything, remotely to do with aviation will be allowed to slip away into the sweet bye and bye - neat, tidy and forgotten almost immediately. Same – same as any of the many other million dollar 'Senate' talkathons. Much sound and fury – signifying por nada...But don't just believe me; do the research – find one item of Senate Committee 'investigation which has been of either positive, intrinsic or of practical value to the aviation industry; or even lonesome Joe Public.
“Simply stated, it is sagacious to eschew obfuscation.”
So much for the 'deceptive' and the obfuscated; put that aside for a moment and consider the 'practical' matters aligned with 'safety'. – Just for a moment imagine yourself the Captain of a passenger aircraft; hard work to obtain that position and the Devil's own job to comply with 'company' requirements and avoid prosecution under criminal law for busting the 'rules'. Protecting both licence and livelihood is of primary concern; the fastest way to lose both is to breach the tenets imposed. For example; one of a pilot's cornerstone manuals is the 'Aircraft Flight Manual'; contained within that legally binding manual, there is a section – usually called 'Limitations'. Some of these to a layman may seem incongruous; but to an educated pilot, they are not. They are not a physical threat to 'life' ending in death' but they are the 'limits' to which the flight envelope has been tested as 'safe' for certification. Among the various 'limitations' there will be a 'cross-wind' limit and a downwind' limitation. Can the aircraft be operated outside of the 'limits' – well, yes it can; but to cross the line is entering operational 'tiger country'. Many have done it and lived to tell the tale – however; should anything untoward occur during the excursion; then insurance, licence and possibly even the company certification will all become nugatory; at that instant. While I'm banging on its probably better to drag in 'wake turbulence'. The video below is worth watching; as a prelude to defining why King's glib hand off of all responsibility to ATC and flight crew in an attempt to pacify 'voters' is (IMO) both offensive and ever so slightly silly.
Here we are lined up a Brisbane; SODPROPS are on the menu: hot and heavy is the air; a gusty sea breeze adds a crosswind component to the ambient wind; clipping in at about the 12 – 15 Knot mark – typical. As the A380 lands to the South – a 737 is rolling to the North on the downwind runway – that's' Cool say's King. Not so. The A380 pre landing vortex is at a max as it crosses the runway threshold and drifting 'down wind' towards the down wind runway; by now the 737 is in a critical speed bracket (V1 etc) the aircraft has a tailwind component and a crosswind component to manage; but wait – there's more. Just after VR the 380 low level WT reaches the ground and guess what – not only is the 737 border line 'illegal' it is now entangled in a powerful vortex. Rough ride? Oh you bet on it. Take off outside the down wind limitations is prohibited; the short answer to an excessive downwind (or even a legal one) – is NO. Even if it is within the 'limitations' allowed; the wake from the opposite direction landing aircraft, can really spoil your day. Now ATC will, as obliged to do, offer a downwind take off. A polite refusal will not offend. Statistics rate an 'event' @ 20, 000: 1 against. The laws of probability apply for number 20,001 - Sods' law states if it can happen - it will. Think about it.
I didn't attend the funeral, but I sent a nice letter saying I approved of it.
I know, I do; it's a ramble – but 'enforcing' opposite direction traffic options to placate the voters seems like an easy way to get out from 'under the blunder' – politics cannot interfere with air safety. Yes, it may not happen; but why roll the dice? There are other ways of reducing aircraft noise; perhaps some innovation instead of promoting a flawed system would assist. There are some fairly clever folk out there in ATC land – bring 'em in and sort it out. The current crew seem not only 'clue-less' but politically browbeaten. Time for a change me thinks – a great big one. Starting with sensible salaries for the 'big guns' and empowering the ATCO's – discretion without risk of prosecution perhaps.
“After all, Father, to understand their demonstration one doesn't have to be very intelligent: it's enough to have suffered.”
Aye well; that's me done with it. 'Nuff said; probably too much; but the money and the potential and the wasted opportunities to get a flagging industry up and running strongly again need to be addressed. King couldn't do it if her life depended on it – BUT there are folk who can see far and clear. Why not use them instead of the clapped out pretenders we have foisted on us – if not – then why not?
Just realised there is subtle benefit to reading through the King shifty moves and the rest of it – it creates a desperate need for fresh night air, smoke and the quiet company of mates with four legs.
“Outside of a dog, a book is man's best friend. Inside of a dog it's too dark to read.”
Selah...
“There are 3 kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”
On reflection; we may (with a shudder) effectively dismiss outright lies in the 'Ministers's' latest attempt to pacify a potential politicaL 'disagreement' which may (perhaps) affect the voting: (although I would disagree with that assumption). However, it is a 'truth' that:-
“Federal Transport Minister Catherine King has told Airservices it must speed up its response to Brisbane Airport’s noise action plan, and has given the air traffic control body until November 30 to implement a key changes.”
It sounds right; probably even believed by those who are all upset by aircraft noise; they can believe that ASA was 'told'. Hell, I 'told' my Budgie to shut up the other day – made little difference. Unless there is a clear 'directive' – ordering both airport and ASA to 'make it happen'; they will simply roll off the top and continue as pleases. Oh; but there is one – No there ain't – we have a directive which “has the effect:” and etc. Take a look at the cast and crew involved in the 'Transport Reference Committee' gab fest scheduled Friday 20/07/24 – talk about taking a knife to a gun-fight. The right 'boxes' will be ticked, tea will be served and; at the end of the shift; the same result as anything, remotely to do with aviation will be allowed to slip away into the sweet bye and bye - neat, tidy and forgotten almost immediately. Same – same as any of the many other million dollar 'Senate' talkathons. Much sound and fury – signifying por nada...But don't just believe me; do the research – find one item of Senate Committee 'investigation which has been of either positive, intrinsic or of practical value to the aviation industry; or even lonesome Joe Public.
“Simply stated, it is sagacious to eschew obfuscation.”
So much for the 'deceptive' and the obfuscated; put that aside for a moment and consider the 'practical' matters aligned with 'safety'. – Just for a moment imagine yourself the Captain of a passenger aircraft; hard work to obtain that position and the Devil's own job to comply with 'company' requirements and avoid prosecution under criminal law for busting the 'rules'. Protecting both licence and livelihood is of primary concern; the fastest way to lose both is to breach the tenets imposed. For example; one of a pilot's cornerstone manuals is the 'Aircraft Flight Manual'; contained within that legally binding manual, there is a section – usually called 'Limitations'. Some of these to a layman may seem incongruous; but to an educated pilot, they are not. They are not a physical threat to 'life' ending in death' but they are the 'limits' to which the flight envelope has been tested as 'safe' for certification. Among the various 'limitations' there will be a 'cross-wind' limit and a downwind' limitation. Can the aircraft be operated outside of the 'limits' – well, yes it can; but to cross the line is entering operational 'tiger country'. Many have done it and lived to tell the tale – however; should anything untoward occur during the excursion; then insurance, licence and possibly even the company certification will all become nugatory; at that instant. While I'm banging on its probably better to drag in 'wake turbulence'. The video below is worth watching; as a prelude to defining why King's glib hand off of all responsibility to ATC and flight crew in an attempt to pacify 'voters' is (IMO) both offensive and ever so slightly silly.
Here we are lined up a Brisbane; SODPROPS are on the menu: hot and heavy is the air; a gusty sea breeze adds a crosswind component to the ambient wind; clipping in at about the 12 – 15 Knot mark – typical. As the A380 lands to the South – a 737 is rolling to the North on the downwind runway – that's' Cool say's King. Not so. The A380 pre landing vortex is at a max as it crosses the runway threshold and drifting 'down wind' towards the down wind runway; by now the 737 is in a critical speed bracket (V1 etc) the aircraft has a tailwind component and a crosswind component to manage; but wait – there's more. Just after VR the 380 low level WT reaches the ground and guess what – not only is the 737 border line 'illegal' it is now entangled in a powerful vortex. Rough ride? Oh you bet on it. Take off outside the down wind limitations is prohibited; the short answer to an excessive downwind (or even a legal one) – is NO. Even if it is within the 'limitations' allowed; the wake from the opposite direction landing aircraft, can really spoil your day. Now ATC will, as obliged to do, offer a downwind take off. A polite refusal will not offend. Statistics rate an 'event' @ 20, 000: 1 against. The laws of probability apply for number 20,001 - Sods' law states if it can happen - it will. Think about it.
I didn't attend the funeral, but I sent a nice letter saying I approved of it.
I know, I do; it's a ramble – but 'enforcing' opposite direction traffic options to placate the voters seems like an easy way to get out from 'under the blunder' – politics cannot interfere with air safety. Yes, it may not happen; but why roll the dice? There are other ways of reducing aircraft noise; perhaps some innovation instead of promoting a flawed system would assist. There are some fairly clever folk out there in ATC land – bring 'em in and sort it out. The current crew seem not only 'clue-less' but politically browbeaten. Time for a change me thinks – a great big one. Starting with sensible salaries for the 'big guns' and empowering the ATCO's – discretion without risk of prosecution perhaps.
“After all, Father, to understand their demonstration one doesn't have to be very intelligent: it's enough to have suffered.”
Aye well; that's me done with it. 'Nuff said; probably too much; but the money and the potential and the wasted opportunities to get a flagging industry up and running strongly again need to be addressed. King couldn't do it if her life depended on it – BUT there are folk who can see far and clear. Why not use them instead of the clapped out pretenders we have foisted on us – if not – then why not?
Just realised there is subtle benefit to reading through the King shifty moves and the rest of it – it creates a desperate need for fresh night air, smoke and the quiet company of mates with four legs.
“Outside of a dog, a book is man's best friend. Inside of a dog it's too dark to read.”
Selah...