A Theory Skirting Bullshit.
Disconnects, delays, deception, and fumbles; about par for the course from ATSB these days. Gods alone know what the relatives and NoK must be going through. But, it is easily discerned; just ask anyone left behind after a fatal – the stories are all hauntingly similar. A tale of denouement delayed and obfuscated story line. Heartbreak city.
That aside; I got curious. Being familiar with the mighty P&W Wasp Junior and having a nodding acquaintance with the Beaver (many decades ago) I did some rough calculations. The engine has nine cylinders; each cylinder is connected to an exhaust 'ring' at the rear of the engine. The engine mount behind that, ahead of the firewall.
![[Image: images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcTgpG63PM-3ktecnYfi7...A&usqp=CAU]](https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcTgpG63PM-3ktecnYfi7DG0yX_LiJuq78-syA&usqp=CAU)
It is not a great distance from the pilot's boots, take a look at the pictures. Each cylinder has a 'displacement' of 985 cubic inches. The mathematics are boring; the medical data vague, but, I am not wholly convinced that one cylinder, leaking a small percentage (small crack) of gas, into an even smaller series of 'holes' in the firewall could produce – within the given time frame, enough CO to incapacitate three adults. It may well be possible; but as a racing certainty, I'd put it at long odds. As a contributing factor with complaints of headaches after the flight – OK, we can shorten the odds on that. Anyway, for what it's worth:-
ISU “ The time of exposure, the concentration of CO, the activity level of the person breathing the CO, and the person’s age, sex, and general health all affect the danger level. For instance, a concentration of 400 ppm will cause headaches in 1 to 2 hours. In 3 to 5 hours the same concentration can lead to unconsciousness and death. Physical exertion, with an accompanying increase in respiration rate, shortens the time to critical levels by 2 or 3 fold.
"The longer you inhale the gas, the worse your symptoms will be. You may lose balance, vision and memory and, eventually, you may lose consciousness. This can happen within 2 hours if there's a lot of carbon monoxide in the air".
"Your symptoms will often indicate whether you have carbon monoxide poisoning, but a blood test will confirm the amount of carboxyhaemoglobin in your blood. A level of 30% indicates severe exposure. "
"Mild carbon monoxide poisoning does not usually need hospital treatment, but it's still important that you seek medical advice."
One would not hesitate to believe a NTSB report on such a theory; but when it comes from the ATSB; the BS meter kicks in. P2 nails down the radical:-
“Where's Nat? Not sure why the Hooded Canary fronted this one given he has zip credibility in professional aviation accident investigation circles (especially in NSW) and also because the original front man for this high profile investigation was none other than Nat Nagy?
"Fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities. Truth isn't."
Disconnects, delays, deception, and fumbles; about par for the course from ATSB these days. Gods alone know what the relatives and NoK must be going through. But, it is easily discerned; just ask anyone left behind after a fatal – the stories are all hauntingly similar. A tale of denouement delayed and obfuscated story line. Heartbreak city.
That aside; I got curious. Being familiar with the mighty P&W Wasp Junior and having a nodding acquaintance with the Beaver (many decades ago) I did some rough calculations. The engine has nine cylinders; each cylinder is connected to an exhaust 'ring' at the rear of the engine. The engine mount behind that, ahead of the firewall.
It is not a great distance from the pilot's boots, take a look at the pictures. Each cylinder has a 'displacement' of 985 cubic inches. The mathematics are boring; the medical data vague, but, I am not wholly convinced that one cylinder, leaking a small percentage (small crack) of gas, into an even smaller series of 'holes' in the firewall could produce – within the given time frame, enough CO to incapacitate three adults. It may well be possible; but as a racing certainty, I'd put it at long odds. As a contributing factor with complaints of headaches after the flight – OK, we can shorten the odds on that. Anyway, for what it's worth:-
ISU “ The time of exposure, the concentration of CO, the activity level of the person breathing the CO, and the person’s age, sex, and general health all affect the danger level. For instance, a concentration of 400 ppm will cause headaches in 1 to 2 hours. In 3 to 5 hours the same concentration can lead to unconsciousness and death. Physical exertion, with an accompanying increase in respiration rate, shortens the time to critical levels by 2 or 3 fold.
"The longer you inhale the gas, the worse your symptoms will be. You may lose balance, vision and memory and, eventually, you may lose consciousness. This can happen within 2 hours if there's a lot of carbon monoxide in the air".
"Your symptoms will often indicate whether you have carbon monoxide poisoning, but a blood test will confirm the amount of carboxyhaemoglobin in your blood. A level of 30% indicates severe exposure. "
"Mild carbon monoxide poisoning does not usually need hospital treatment, but it's still important that you seek medical advice."
One would not hesitate to believe a NTSB report on such a theory; but when it comes from the ATSB; the BS meter kicks in. P2 nails down the radical:-
“Where's Nat? Not sure why the Hooded Canary fronted this one given he has zip credibility in professional aviation accident investigation circles (especially in NSW) and also because the original front man for this high profile investigation was none other than Nat Nagy?
"Fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities. Truth isn't."