With your indulgence – a ramble.
One of the more serious considerations attending the B200 fatal accident at Essendon (Melbourne) this week is the flavour of response to the ‘fall out’ that may be expected from the government. Major fatal accidents have, in the past, resulted in an ‘inquiry’ of some sort. Advance, Lockhart, Monarch, Seaview etc. There is a fairly substantial list which supports the notion that there may well be an ‘inquiry’ into this latest event. History shows that despite the millions spent and the huge volumes of ‘reports’ very little has changed – except the departments concerned learned how to cover up, abrogate and obfuscate; even developed it into an art form. But enough of that, if the Norfolk/Pel-Air ongoing fiasco can’t convince you that despite the sound, fury and expense, little will change, then there is little to be gained from my ramblings. There is an urgent need for an inquiry – right now. This accident brings together almost every major item of grave concern the industry has.
Airport land being subsumed and building encroaching to the very limits of ‘safe’ areas; built up to the maximum tolerances allowed by ‘law’ is a serious matter. Take a look at the photograph of Archerfield (Brisbane satellite) aerodrome; the built up areas may well be ‘legal’ to the letter of the limitations; but I for one would be reluctant to take a ‘class’ aircraft there, particularly at night in bad conditions; the loom of the lighting alone can and does play tricks on low cloud and rain; even worse for take off. A take off procedure does not end at the runway end; in fact those few precious seconds, after becoming airborne, are the most critical time. Watch any crew taking off into the ‘murk’; the relaxation is tangible once the aircraft is climbing away, cleaned up and the obstacles have been cleared; before that, they are paying very close attention. Why? Take another look at the Essendon story. Ten foot – three meters, is a big number margin when the aircraft is ‘low and slow’ and has a ‘problem’. Would ‘time and space’ have saved this aircraft? We don’t know, but it is a fact that the aircraft hit a building very close to the runway; 100 meters @ 180 KpH is not a big distance for an aircraft to travel – work out the time taken, it is not very long at all.
Of course much will depend on the ATSB report and findings; but, on past performance – Pel-Air and Mildura for example, (to mention the ones the public are dimly aware of) have been neither satisfactory or effective nor even timely, let alone of any value in preventing a repeat. There are many serious incidents still awaiting anything more than a ‘lip service’ acknowledgement from ATSB. It is a very long list and some of it damn scary; the Virgin ATR; the Mildura close call etc. Now we must wait for what seems to be the normal time period of two to three years for a report; even then, looking back at the most recent efforts, most will agree the wait was in vain.
Then we must consider the CASA role in the accident. Not the surface shine on the mudguard, but the accumulated crud underneath. Any inquiry mounted must be made aware of and made to understand the ‘true’ depth of CASA involvement; right down to the fine detail of the influence and pressure brought to bear on operators to do it the CASA way – or no way. This despite the muttering of protesting ‘experts’. Many hold the opinion that until CASA is completely reformed, from top to toe; maintaining the peripheral agencies is merely theatre; naught but a magicians pantomime, staged to baffle politicians and bamboozle the public.
Last; but by no means least, although excluded from the Essendon crash, are the mandarins who allow these aberrations to continue. Those who provide top cover and influence to ‘protect’ not only the minister and the public from epiphany; but generate the smoke, manufacture the snake oil and keep the mirrors very highly polished.
So, will there eventually be an inquiry into this accident? It’s a fair bet and the odds are easily determined. It is a much tougher challenge to sort out the odds for that inquiry ever producing a ‘satisfactory’ outcome; but it will be a long odds bet, be assured of that.
Aye well, ‘tis but a speculative ramble; not sure why I bothered really; it’s not as though we haven’t seen it all before. The smoke and flames, burning bodies, ground services swinging into dynamic action; the ‘media’ going nuts, politicians looking sombre, early speculation, the endless TV repeats and ‘expert’ commentary, followed by the ATSB scratching about in the rubble trying to piece it all together, CASA ducking out of the back door at a rate of knots; then - not much more. Time ticks by, the often risible report is finally produced; the politicians bang on; a report is tabled; and, just like that –reboot - it’s all good again. Nothing has changed – not even the chance of this happening all over again in a shopping mall near you.
End of ramble; opinion expressed, my two bob, spent as pleased me best. Now, the old stable awaits me; a place where there are dogs, a work bench, a rack of sharp tools and a part finished high chair for a new soul entering this world. It is a fine place, balm for heart, hands and mind.
Selah.
One of the more serious considerations attending the B200 fatal accident at Essendon (Melbourne) this week is the flavour of response to the ‘fall out’ that may be expected from the government. Major fatal accidents have, in the past, resulted in an ‘inquiry’ of some sort. Advance, Lockhart, Monarch, Seaview etc. There is a fairly substantial list which supports the notion that there may well be an ‘inquiry’ into this latest event. History shows that despite the millions spent and the huge volumes of ‘reports’ very little has changed – except the departments concerned learned how to cover up, abrogate and obfuscate; even developed it into an art form. But enough of that, if the Norfolk/Pel-Air ongoing fiasco can’t convince you that despite the sound, fury and expense, little will change, then there is little to be gained from my ramblings. There is an urgent need for an inquiry – right now. This accident brings together almost every major item of grave concern the industry has.
Airport land being subsumed and building encroaching to the very limits of ‘safe’ areas; built up to the maximum tolerances allowed by ‘law’ is a serious matter. Take a look at the photograph of Archerfield (Brisbane satellite) aerodrome; the built up areas may well be ‘legal’ to the letter of the limitations; but I for one would be reluctant to take a ‘class’ aircraft there, particularly at night in bad conditions; the loom of the lighting alone can and does play tricks on low cloud and rain; even worse for take off. A take off procedure does not end at the runway end; in fact those few precious seconds, after becoming airborne, are the most critical time. Watch any crew taking off into the ‘murk’; the relaxation is tangible once the aircraft is climbing away, cleaned up and the obstacles have been cleared; before that, they are paying very close attention. Why? Take another look at the Essendon story. Ten foot – three meters, is a big number margin when the aircraft is ‘low and slow’ and has a ‘problem’. Would ‘time and space’ have saved this aircraft? We don’t know, but it is a fact that the aircraft hit a building very close to the runway; 100 meters @ 180 KpH is not a big distance for an aircraft to travel – work out the time taken, it is not very long at all.
Of course much will depend on the ATSB report and findings; but, on past performance – Pel-Air and Mildura for example, (to mention the ones the public are dimly aware of) have been neither satisfactory or effective nor even timely, let alone of any value in preventing a repeat. There are many serious incidents still awaiting anything more than a ‘lip service’ acknowledgement from ATSB. It is a very long list and some of it damn scary; the Virgin ATR; the Mildura close call etc. Now we must wait for what seems to be the normal time period of two to three years for a report; even then, looking back at the most recent efforts, most will agree the wait was in vain.
Then we must consider the CASA role in the accident. Not the surface shine on the mudguard, but the accumulated crud underneath. Any inquiry mounted must be made aware of and made to understand the ‘true’ depth of CASA involvement; right down to the fine detail of the influence and pressure brought to bear on operators to do it the CASA way – or no way. This despite the muttering of protesting ‘experts’. Many hold the opinion that until CASA is completely reformed, from top to toe; maintaining the peripheral agencies is merely theatre; naught but a magicians pantomime, staged to baffle politicians and bamboozle the public.
Last; but by no means least, although excluded from the Essendon crash, are the mandarins who allow these aberrations to continue. Those who provide top cover and influence to ‘protect’ not only the minister and the public from epiphany; but generate the smoke, manufacture the snake oil and keep the mirrors very highly polished.
So, will there eventually be an inquiry into this accident? It’s a fair bet and the odds are easily determined. It is a much tougher challenge to sort out the odds for that inquiry ever producing a ‘satisfactory’ outcome; but it will be a long odds bet, be assured of that.
Aye well, ‘tis but a speculative ramble; not sure why I bothered really; it’s not as though we haven’t seen it all before. The smoke and flames, burning bodies, ground services swinging into dynamic action; the ‘media’ going nuts, politicians looking sombre, early speculation, the endless TV repeats and ‘expert’ commentary, followed by the ATSB scratching about in the rubble trying to piece it all together, CASA ducking out of the back door at a rate of knots; then - not much more. Time ticks by, the often risible report is finally produced; the politicians bang on; a report is tabled; and, just like that –reboot - it’s all good again. Nothing has changed – not even the chance of this happening all over again in a shopping mall near you.
End of ramble; opinion expressed, my two bob, spent as pleased me best. Now, the old stable awaits me; a place where there are dogs, a work bench, a rack of sharp tools and a part finished high chair for a new soul entering this world. It is a fine place, balm for heart, hands and mind.
Selah.