[P7_TOM]

Wrong colour ink “V” – BLUE needed;  as in gone in blue in the face trying to allow logic and research a chance. Your own good self, the excellent Chillit and doughty Howard along with other notables have all tried – alas; in vain. Since the AMSA were unceremoniously turfed out and ‘Beyond all reason stepped in; it has been a bun-fight. Thing is ATSB have too much skin in the game now to even consider backing off and admitting the collective ‘they’ either got it wrong; or, ‘they’ were given duff gen and an instruction to ‘make it fit’. Either way the farce will continue until the end – it has to. To end it now would leave the job unfinished and ‘liability’ emerges. A soft exit is required and will emerge after a suitable period of head scratching – my bet : the deep sea oil and gas explorers will take a tax break and take over the search; at least they will gain some benefit from the outlay. The Australian public just take another haircut, more money down the government grist mill. No wukkers; they are very, very used to it: lots of practice.

[ventus45]

I get the point "oh-wise-one", but although "blue in the face" is on target, I am "seeing" red these days.

As for "duff-gen / nee data", I still think "the Malacca Strait radar story" is the source of the problem. I am convinced the white circle in the Lido slide is the "smoking gun", and all the rest, ie, the DSTG's "given" ten second data up the Strait is "contrived", put bluntly, it is bunk.


For those who beleive in the Malacca Strait story, the following may assist them in trying to "verify" their modeled 3D flight paths (altitude at range "x" on radial "y").

The two PSR's involved are the Radar just east of the Butterworth Runway, and the Radar on top of Western Hill on the Island of Penang.  

The Butterworth PSR Radar head is virtually at Sea Level (approximately 21 Meters / 70 feet) elevation.
The Western Hill PSR Radar head is at (approximately 814 Metres / 2,670 feet) elevation.

On the night - atmospheric issues may have caused some refraction of the the returns, with those received at Butterworth possibly more refracted than the returns received at Western Hill.

In any case, the Radar Horizon from Western Hill (in the direction of interest, north west) is much further than that from Butterworth, due, primarily, to it's elevation being a very significant 2,600 higher above sea level, and secondly, it is a few miles south west of Butterworth.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/oi3ge08efqp0lp...h.gif?dl=0

Details follow.

RMAF Butterworth Primary Search Radar
Antenna Elevation ~ 21 Metres - 70 Feet
LAT:  5° 28.327'N
LON: 100° 23.675'E
https://www.dropbox.com/s/3k3cmf4s3f5abt...t.gif?dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/s/gdvuwmylvnpil9...r.kml?dl=0


RMAF Western Hill Primary Search Radar
Antenna Elevation ~ 814 Metres - 2670 Feet
LAT:  5° 25.479'N
LON: 100° 15.057'E
https://www.dropbox.com/s/kxqsnlbyibwmzr...t.gif?dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/s/r2xuakkxrmevs1...l.kml?dl=0

And as for today's latest offering from the ATSB, re the presented analysis of the inner part of the right outboard flap, I note:
(1) There is no information in the report on “the outboard end” of the inboard part of the right outboard flap.
Why ?
(2) The failure mode of the flap support bracket was what I wanted to see – and we get – “nothing”.
Why ?

[ventus45]

The case of the Missing Flap Track Support Bracket.

New2a.gif Size: 206.14 KB  Downloads: 110

[ventus45]

Tom Lindsay
Posted November 3, 2016 at 12:35 AM
@All
An interesting article on how Bayesian Inference works if your like me and new to this application.
http://www.datasciencecentral.com/profil...ence-works
(originally posted here: http://brohrer.github.io/how_bayesian_in...works.html)

[ventus45]

On the "thorny" subject of BFO's.

There now seems to be some uncertainty about the previous certainty of the original uncertainties.
Confused ?
Good.
Read On.





Now, if you have understood the implications of that, consider Paul Smithson's post:



Please Note Paul's LAST PARAGRAPH.


Perhaps it is time to begin considering the possibility that the “possible turn” we learned about in late March 2014 might not have occurred at all; that the trajectory south arose from initial turnback, and that the “radar data” that many hold so dear arose from “looking for what we ought to see [per initial ISAT analysis]”.


Now I might be so bold as to re-raise the possibility of the turnback waypoint error (UPROB instead of UPRON), but I will not, I will let that particular sleeping dog (of that breed of "via Medan's") lie slumbering (for now).

What is more pertinaet, is Paul's suggestion of iterative circular bias with regard to matching radar data (any data) to what they "initially thought" the ISAT data was telling them.  If that "understanding" of the BFO's turns out to be in error, then the credibility of the "presented radar narrative" goes out the window - at M0.84+ !

However, airlandseaman fires back at Paul with this:



Then, Dennis Waterman chimed in with this:

airlandseaman.JPG Size: 167.54 KB  Downloads: 110

AirLandSeaMan-Mike Exner.JPG Size: 173.03 KB  Downloads: 106

Paul Smithson.JPG Size: 124.39 KB  Downloads: 101

airlandseaman-2.JPG Size: 46.77 KB  Downloads: 94

Dennis Waterman 1.JPG Size: 161.64 KB  Downloads: 88

[ventus45]

And the discussion of the SDU Oscillator temperature characteristics continues apace per: --

Discussion - 1.JPG Size: 101.78 KB  Downloads: 86

Discussion - 1a.JPG Size: 41.54 KB  Downloads: 86

Discussion - 1b.JPG Size: 135.34 KB  Downloads: 85

Discussion - 1c.JPG Size: 136.37 KB  Downloads: 85

Discussion - 1d.JPG Size: 26.63 KB  Downloads: 84

[ventus45]

And more:-

Discussion - 1e.JPG Size: 109.72 KB  Downloads: 90

Discussion - 1f.JPG Size: 97.72 KB  Downloads: 89

Discussion - 1g.JPG Size: 42.81 KB  Downloads: 83

Discussion - 1h.JPG Size: 85.46 KB  Downloads: 82

Discussion - 1i.JPG Size: 72.98 KB  Downloads: 83

[ventus45]

And the discussion proceeds:-

Discussion - 2a.JPG Size: 52.74 KB  Downloads: 82

Discussion - 2b.JPG Size: 99.24 KB  Downloads: 81

Discussion - 2c.JPG Size: 88.37 KB  Downloads: 81

Discussion - 2d.JPG Size: 71.06 KB  Downloads: 81

Discussion - 2e.JPG Size: 98.67 KB  Downloads: 80

Very interesting.

MH (in the last above) has "hit the nail on the head".

It is looking more and more like the Malacca Strait Radar Narrative is in serious trouble.

I "wonder" if the "three day back to first principles meeting" is going to consider this subject.

I wonder.

But I doubt it. There are Malaysian Government representatives in the group.

Long ago, when I worked in "a government organisation", the first rule of participating in "any" brainstorming session - where the "big bosses" were either actually present, or "represented" - either as participants or "observers", was to hold ones cards "very" close to ones chest. The only time you opened them up, was when, and if, the said "bosses" actually stated strait out, that they were "taking the rank off", an "genuinely" wanted to know "the truth".

I can't see that happening in Canberra at the moment.

[ventus45]

And I just checked back on the "discussion", and Dennis Waterman finally states the obvious !!

Discussion - 2f.JPG Size: 30.17 KB  Downloads: 79

[Peetwo]

Ventus don't tell "K" but the following is quoted off the JW site...

data-from-flight-simulator-computer
This 14-page document includes technical information about the data found on Zaharie’s flight simulator hard drives. It appears that the machine crashed multiple times in the months before MH370’s disappearance. The document also includes a log of when the flight sim was played, the last time being on March 15, 2014, a week after the plane disappeared (presumably this reflects activity by investigators.) Prior to that, the sim had last been played on February 20, two weeks before the disappearance. This suggests that Zaharie was not using his flight simulator to practice vanishing in the weeks before his disappearance.

data-from-prelim-exam-report-translated-from-malay
This 7-page document seems to have been machine-translated from Malay, and appears to describe a preliminary investigation of the computer hard drives by a Malaysian police technician. It lists the various hard drives found with the flight-sim computer. Among the information recovered were passwords and account information for Zaharie’s hobbies and interests, as well as information about an online bookstore, Zaharie’s various social media accounts, and online shopping. Of particular note, investigators found a deleted folder labeled “777TwinTower” which contains pictures of a Malaysia Airlines plane flying toward the Kuala Lumpur city center. Given widely held suspicion that Zaharie took MH370 on a suicide flight, and that fact that terrorists flew two planes into New York’s twin towers in 2001, this will no doubt raise eyebrows. However, this document notes that: “These images have been taken from the computer screen to play a simulated airplane. The assessment believed that the owners of these computers have taken one of those images for the purpose of being used as an icon on the account.” That is to say, an innocent interpretation of this folder and its contents would be that Zaharie, a proud Malaysian 777 pilot, wanted to create an image of his plane flying past an iconic Malaysian landmark.
After a section discussing the seven deleted points from the flight simulator, which have been much discussed in this forum, the report concludes with a brief Summary: “The results of the examination of the goods were found that no any activity outside the common. The overall computer use to host gaming Flight Simulator only. Nor has any information source which directly indicates there any plans to eliminate MH370 found.”

sim-data
This 31-page document appears to contain all of the saved data in the seven above-mentioned flight simulator points. Hopefully independent flight simulator experts will look it over and render an opinion for the rest of us who lack the expertise to properly grapple with it.

Overview
How does this new information alter our understanding of the MH370 mystery?
For me, it is noteworthy that so little incriminating information was found on any of Zaharie’s computers, even (especially) among the deleted files. The way we use computers these days, they are essentially extensions of our brains. Any passing fancy that drifts through our head is likely to be reflected in our internet search history, in notes we write to ourselves, and so on. When Andreas Lübitz was in the throes of his final mental dissolution, he spent a great deal of time online reading about mental disorders and researching ways to commit suicide. It’s all right there to be seen. Yet on Zaharie’s computer there is nothing. Indeed, he seems to have been spending his time prior to the disappearance doing things like making instructional DIY home-repair videos and pretending to fly an antique DC-3 airplane. Not, it would seem, the behavior of someone contemplating his imminent extinction.

In the light of this newly released information, it is easier to understand why the Malaysian police came to the conclusion that nothing about Zaharie’s behavior points to him  being the culprit

Why quote JW? Well for once he doesn't self-promote or speculate (HSSS bollocks) and gives a reasonable summation of the latest RMP 'leaked' documents courtesy of @Airinvestigate (aka Mick Rooney).


MTF...P2
Ps Some worthwhile comments also worth regurgitating...

Dennis W: ...The ATSB debacle has nothing to do with Shah’s guilt or innocence. It was pure stupidity from the get-go. In fact, like the IG, the ATSB has been very quiet relative to causality other than referring to a mysterious hypoxia event.

They certainly never blamed Shah.

The moral to the story for me, is that there was never anyone with world class credentials leading the investigation. A Richard Feynman type, who lead the 0-ring disaster investigation, comes to mind. We have had nothing but a parade of nondescript administrators and career government employees who let the Malays lead them around by the nose...

---

TBill: ..Interesting discussion of why the entire police report is held confidential (probably due to personal info on PAX and crew).

http://www.mh370investigation.com/2016/09/secret-mh370-investigative-documents.html

“We are all divided; everyone seems to be pulling in different directions based on personal motivations, pet theories, agendas, egos, and filled with entrenched likes and dislikes of characters and personas. There is enough of a disconnect in the official investigation without us adding further to it on the sidelines. We need to all work together no matter our disagreements and differences.”..

[ventus45]

I have a concern with the DATES of the sim files. Most people seem to assume that they are true and correct as to when they were actually run. I think they only represent at best, when they were "last run".

Any given flight plan could have been created months before, and run multiple times, each time changing fuel load, course, speed, whatever, not to mention changing flight dates and or times. In other words, anyone conducting a "planning" exercise, would run the iterations multiple times, to refine, and finalize it.

Moreover, changing dates and times in some programs can be a pain in the rear end.

For Example. When I was running my computer on the astro programs to look at the celestial situation a couple of months ago, I found that it was was easier to just set the computer system clock to UTC and the date to 07Mar2014.

Secondly, and as an extension to that idea, when simulating end of flight at 45South 104East, with a view to optimizing twilight / sunrise, for various "days of the year" it was easier to just change the system dates to make saving the data easier.

So, if Z did plan the vanishing, I am sure he would have created the initial plan many months before, perhaps even a year, or more, before, and both run, and refined it, ie, fine tuned it, often. This was going to be a one=time, one-way mission. It had to be "perfect". He had to be "sure" it was perfect. As Nik Huzlan said, the man (Z) was "meticulous".

The fact that the file dates are months before the event, clearly suggests, that the "plan" (if there was one) had been perfected, and was "on the shelf" for activation.

The obvious problem with 45S 104E for 00:00 UTC on 08Mar2014 is that it does not fit any rational plan, let alone a meticulous plan.

The fact that the "McMurdo" track from around Isbix passes through 45S 104E MAY HAVE BEEN A DELIBERATE RED HERRING BY Z. I.E. leave an "obvious" track file leading to fuel exhaustion (real fuel exhaustion) but on the "wrong" heading. In other words, the range and endurance elements of the simulation were true, but the course was not.

Consider the fuel range from Isbix to 45S 104E, and draw the "fuel remaining at Isbix" limited arc", and where does it intersect the 7th arc ? Very close to the terminator for 00UTC 08Mar14.

In other words, once he had "a wrap" for where he wanted to go, and when, on which flight (he had HIS ROSTER WEEKS IN ADVANCE) all he had to do was run one last "false" track to fuel exhaustion. What better choice than one of the "challenges" that comes as a default goal in the software, that just happens to be in the same general direction. Set it running when going to bed, and just let it run out of fuel and crash.

I think that Z was not only meticulous, he was also very clever, and very devious, and has successfully bamboozled all the experts.

[ventus45]

For those wondering about whether or not the RMAF may have attempted to intercept MH-370, this is a very interesting article on Butterworth Airbase. It is unlikely that a "scramble" would have gone "un-noticed".

http://anotherbrickinwall.blogspot.com.a...under.html

AIP: http://aip.dca.gov.my/aip%20pdf/AD/AD2/W...rworth.pdf

[HDTBill]

I think that Z was not only meticulous, he was also very clever, and very devious, and has successfully bamboozled all the experts.

V45- Do you still feel that part of the goal was to fly into the daylight? In any case, what do you see as the purpose of flying into daylight? I can envision that the engine flame-outs might be less noticeable in sunlight.

[ventus45]

Perhaps it is now time to go back to "square one".

I think we all agree, that for all practical purposes, the entire "search" is based "entirely" on the ISAT data, and the assumption(s) that it is both genuine, and accurate (at least BTO wise).

The entire world's main stream media, and those in this forum (and others), have "accepted" the "veracity" of the ISAT data, "unquestioningly", virtually as "an article of faith".

The so-called "corroborating" data, (the radar data and Hamid's phone data) are essentially only "bit players", intrinsically of little or no use, "in and of themselves", other than to "lend credence" to the ISAT data.

In essence, it all hinges on the ISAT data.
Without the Isat Data, we have no "real" clue, and thus no "real" search, and even that, is "rubbery" at best.

Now, in the "early weeks", Inmarsat publicly stated (a number of times) that they had been "concerned" that they "may" have been "spoofed".

So far as I am aware, there has never been any "emphatic" statement "from Inmarsat themselves", that has nullifiied that "concern".

Further, so far as I am aware, the only "official" government "asseertions" that MH370 went to the SIO have been:-
(in order):
(1) Jay Carney (then Obama).
(2) Najib then
(3) Abbott.

QUESTIONS:
(1) Has the Chineese Government ever "publicly" stated that they "accept" the ISAT Data ?
(2) Has the Chineese Government ever "officially" said that they "accept" that MH370 "did actually go to the SIO" ?
(3) If not either (1) or (2) - Why Not ?

Should we therefore turn our attention to finding out "why not" ?

The US NSA then very quickly "classified" everything they have on MH370, rejecting all FOI requests.

In Australia, when Annette (Aussie500) on twitter (https://twitter.com/aussie500?lang=en) placed FOI requests on the RAAF, for the photos and data taken / gathered during the P3 search missions, only a limited set was released, and "access was denied" to what appears to be a lot more.

If you look at her Dropbox Link:-
(https://www.dropbox.com/sh/kolkrm0a913ko...FP9Wa?dl=0))
you will see the following FOI related files.

(A) (https://www.dropbox.com/sh/kolkrm0a913ko...o.txt?dl=0)
(B) (https://www.dropbox.com/sh/kolkrm0a913ko...e.pdf?dl=0)
© (https://www.dropbox.com/sh/kolkrm0a913ko...s.pdf?dl=0)
(D) (https://www.dropbox.com/sh/kolkrm0a913ko....xlsx?dl=0)

Since, Document C quite clearly indicates, that the RAAF are withholding considerable additional photos and / or data from the P3 search missions, it begs the question as to the "real reasons why" they should do so, or even want to do so.

Should we therefore not "seriously pursue" the RAAF for those additional photos and data ?
In addition, it is quite obvious that the ATSB has them, but they have said nothing about anything concerning the air search.

Perhaps we should "turn the screws" on "BOTH" the RAAF and the ATSB to release "ALL" P3 mission "collections".

[Kharon]

Why’s and whatfor’s – Huh?

Good questions “V”.  One, of the many MH 370 ‘strange things’, which has always troubled me, is the massive ‘clamp down’ on information. I‘ve been wrong before this day, but it seems to me  had I lost a capital aircraft, 200 odd passengers and crew; in the middle of the night, in mysterious circumstances – that I would making sure that every bright mind on the planet had all; I do mean all the information I had; and, keep it updated. Sure, you’d get some strange and wonderful ‘theory’ to discount; but look at some of the sensible, rational, logical notions, provided from the very limited, ‘hard’ data available. Yes, they may be wrong, however, I believe that once the ‘immediate’ initial SAR operation came up dry, and before I launched into a multi million dollar search; every credible scenario had been examined and some sort of ‘best guess’ consensus had been reached.

Another item of concern is the ‘veil of secrecy’ (for wont of better). For example; why on earth would the RAAF deny access to all ‘photographic’ search evidence?  Why must a thing like the ‘first principles’ discussion be kept under wraps and covered by a duplicitous statement from the minister of NFI? There are other examples, but my point is – why? There is nothing ‘top-secret’ about a lost aircraft; no state secrets involved; no political scandal associated. But everything is kept ‘hush-hush’ – why? Why the secrecy?

Amongst others, there is the abrupt termination of the AMSA involvement and the insertion of ATSB; another is the point blank refusal to use sensible search technique and to doggedly stick to one small area. But, enough: looking at my notes for MH 370, there are eight pages of questions which, as yet, I have been unable to reduce since day one. In short, despite reading and analysing every small nugget of information I have been unable to satisfactorily answer any of my questions except that an aircraft was lost, even then, I occasionally wonder, over a beer or two, did they actually loose one?

The notion which keeps sneaking to the top of the pile is just who are ‘the criminals’?

Aye well, best stop there, lest we be accused of being contradictory; seems that if you don’t agree with certain travel writers; then by considering other options, you offend the sensitivities of those who believe that ‘they’ and they alone are the voice of MH 370 and would deny all rights to speculate or discuss or consider anything they did not pen. Which is as complete a bollocks as I have ever read.  “Explanation!” shouts GD from the back of the room; well, seems someone has got his panties in a bunch, is pissed off with BB and the Oz for daring to have an opinion, stealing thunder and for taking the odd pot-shot at the broken, discredited ATSB.  At least that is one less ‘opinion’ I have to read, less pontification to tolerate and one less ego to sooth. Happy thought, right there.

Toot – toot.

[P7_TOM]

HDTBill - V45- Do you still feel that part of the goal was to fly into the daylight? In any case, what do you see as the purpose of flying into daylight? I can envision that the engine flame-outs might be less noticeable in sunlight.

Good point and welcome stranger. IF and it remains a very big IF, the intention was ‘suicide/mass murder; then why would anyone give a cuss whether it was dark or light. The ocean is a brick wall at those speeds, day or night.

[ventus45]

HDTBill, the idea of a flame-out producing a signature, detectable from space, never entered my head before. On thinking about it, I would not think it likely for a number of reasons. First, the shutdown procedure for a jet engine is simply to turn the fuel valve off. No fuel in the combustion chamber equals flame-out inside the combustion chamber. I can't see any fuel being un-burnt in the chamber, then making it's way past the turbine disks and out the exhausts and then igniting. Second, the engine exhaust is under the wing. Even if there was a little "flame torch" it would have to be long enough to stretch behind the flaperon to be seen from above. In any case, even if there was some sort of "flame-out", it would be small and short lived and of very low "energy" that I doubt any satellite would detect, day or night.

[ventus45]

Eight pages of questions K ?
The only definitive thing that can be said about the response of all governments to the search for MH-370 is that it has been characterized by misinformation and disinformation from day one.

The most likely answer, is, as you hinted, "did they actually loose it" ?
I think we should consider the notion that it was "taken", by someone, for a reason.
But then, some time later, perhaps there was a "counter take" launched by those on-board, something went wrong, and that lead to disaster.
You might say, they (the original thieves) have not actually "lost" it, as such, perhaps it was "stolen" twice in the same flight.
It is the only scenario that explains the ‘veil of secrecy’, that has been palpable from day two.

[ventus45]

Radar Games.

I know I have flogged this horse umpteen times, (way back) but just so people can "see" how the Western Hill Radar Data was simply "manipulated" to "hide" the fact that the aircraft descended into Medan as if to land, (white circle) then actually overflew Medan and climbed out on airway L774, I have flipped and rotated the "Lido Slide" to show you "how it was done".



The last yellow radar hit at 18:22 and the last yellow hit before the beginning of the white circle are the anchor points on the respective range circles from the Western Hill PSR.

Radar-Games-3.gif Size: 402.55 KB  Downloads: 226

Close-Up-FMT-1.gif Size: 364.99 KB  Downloads: 218

[ventus45]

The complete Southern FMT flight path to the ditching near the 6th Arc, repeat, 6th Arc, not the 7th.