[Peetwo]

MH370 NOK: From the heart -

Via the Oz today:

Don’t abandon search for our loved ones: MH370 families

• Amanda Hodge
  
• The Australian
  
• 12:00AM September 5, 2016
  

[/url]
South East Asia correspondent
Jakarta
[url=http://twitter.com/hodgeamanda]@hodgeamanda
[img=0x0]http://pixel.tcog.cp1.news.com.au/track/component/author/e77dda0d0cda6499108d6323ac86ff18/?esi=true&t_product=the-australian&t_template=s3/austemp-article_common/vertical/author/widget&td_bio=false[/img]

Problem is;

A) The ATsB are useless,
B) The Australian and Malaysian governments are 'in bed together', for reasons not fully understood at this time,
C) None of the political, procedural, investigative, bureaucratic or business interests actually give a rats arse because it doesn't affect them personally. None of their loved ones are dead and not accounted for.

The pain that the families and friends of the deceased are going through is unimaginable. My heart truly goes out to them and I can only wish that at some stage they in the near future, rather than the far future, receive some sort of closure that allows them to finalise their grieving processes and move on as best that they can.

In sympathy, Gobbles


R.I.P

Update: courtesy ABC PM

MH370 next of kin turn to Australia for support to keep search alive
Peter Lloyd reported this story on Monday, September 5, 2016 18:30:00
About JW Player 6.11.4923 (Ads edition)       

| MP3 download
Australia is stepping onto a diplomatic tight rope in its relationship with Malaysia.

High level officials involved in the Australian-led search for missing Malaysia Airlines flight 370 are hosting a group of next of kin.

The Malaysian families coming here are in open revolt at what they say is their own government's unvarnished indifference to the fate of the plane, passengers and crew.

Relatives believe there is now 'credible new evidence' to justify more searching.

But they say no Malaysian official will meet them, so they're turning to Canberra for allies.

In a confronting first, they'll come face to face with physical evidence of what happened to the plane.

FEATURED:

Sarah Nathan - Australian Transport Safety Bureau

[*]

[*]
Latest from the Oz :

MH370 pilot’s friendship with mystery woman revealed

Friend Fatima Pardi speaking about missing pilot Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah.
Captain Zaharie: ‘This is not a lovey-dovey story,’ says Ms Pardi.
Wreckage from the missing plane, MH370: No answers on the fate of 239 people.
Former Malaysia Airlines chief pilot Nik Huzlan: ‘The human heart harbours deep secrets’.

• Amanda Hodge
  
• The Australian
  
• 12:00AM September 7, 2016
  

South East Asia correspondent
Jakarta
@hodgeamanda
[img=0x0]http://pixel.tcog.cp1.news.com.au/track/component/author/e77dda0d0cda6499108d6323ac86ff18/?esi=true&t_product=the-australian&t_template=s3/austemp-article_common/vertical/author/widget&td_bio=false[/img]
The pilot of missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 had grown close to a married woman and her three children, one of whom has severe cerebral palsy, in the months before his disappearance and the two had messaged each other about a “personal matter” two days before the ill-fated flight on March 8, 2014.

The friendship, which quickly developed to a level where Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah was playing an almost fatherly role to the children, had cooled in the weeks leading up to the accident at his instigation, the woman has told The Australian. But Fatima Pardi would not reveal the subject of their last WhatsApp discussion before the flight.

“That last conversation was just between me and him. I don’t want to talk about it,” she said.

She added that Captain Zaharie had not seemed stressed.

“I’m afraid what I say will be misunderstood,” she said. “It was a personal matter, a private issue.”

The 35-year-old former kindergarten teacher, who now works for a Malaysian opposition party, has been interviewed four times by Malaysian investigators seeking answers over the dis­appearance of the passenger plane and all 239 people inside it.

In her first media interview, Ms Pardi said she and Captain Zaharie had grown close after meeting as political volunteers on election day, May 5, 2013, and the 53-year-old pilot had regularly visited her house and showered her children with gifts. She said the two were not having an affair and her decision to speak publicly was motivated by a desire to counter speculation Captain Zaharie might have hijacked the plane.

“This is not a lovey-dovey story,” she said. “He was a friend of mine. We were friends. He told me he saw potential in me and that he would help me build a better ­future for myself and my children.

“Since the incident, I have ­refused all interviews because I have been afraid that what I say will be mis­interpreted, and that it will hurt Captain Zaharie’s family’s feelings. Of course there was gossip, people will always talk whether you’re good or you’re bad.

People think I am the ‘other woman’. But we were close ­because the children loved him.
“I don’t believe that he loved me. I believe that he loved my children. Whatever my children said ‘We want this, we want that’, he would buy for them.

“I said to him he should stop doing that because I don’t pamper my children. He would say, ‘She’s just a kid’. So what could I ­conclude? That he loves children.”

The pilot murder-suicide ­theory to explain the plane’s disappearance was again raised in July when a New York Magazine article cited leaked information from the Malaysian MH370 ­investigation, alleging Captain Zaharie had plotted a similar though not identical path to the one MH370 is believed to have taken to the southern Indian Ocean on his flight simulator less than a month earlier.

Australian and Malaysian authorities have confirmed the leaked information but said the simulated route showed only the “possibility of planning”.

Last week, New York Magazine author Jeff Wise corrected the story on his personal blog post, saying it now appeared more ­likely the information was from “two or possible three separate flights” and not one single flight plot to the southern Indian Ocean.

Despite the revelations, Transport Minister Darren Chester told The Australian “hopes are fading” fast the airliner can be found and confirmed the search was due to finish if nothing new came to light.

Retired Malaysia Airlines chief pilot Nik Huzlan, a friend and contemporary of Captain Zaharie, said he was not particularly convinced by the simulator theory, given that in the immediate aftermath of the September 11, 2001, ­attacks “every pilot with a flight simulator programmed in New York and tried to crash into the twin towers”. “You don’t get a flight simulator to do the mundane things you can do in the real thing,” he said.

He believes the plane dis­appeared as a result of “human intervention” and Captain Zaharie — a friend of 30 years he describes as “cool, funny and as normal as can be” — was the “most likely” culprit by process of elimination.

“The captain is the person best placed to have both the opportunity and capability,” Mr Huzlan told The Australian. “Then it goes down to the first officer, chief steward, No 1 cabin guy, then so on and so forth down the pecking order of the aeroplane staff and then passengers.

“No professional pilot who has followed this case can deny this possibility, or come up with an ­alternative theory that convinces them it is not human intervention. You just can’t dismiss it.

“The human heart harbours deep secrets.”

The critical factor, he said, was that things began to go wrong on the flight only in the 90 seconds of unsupervised airtime after Captain Zaharie had signed off from Malaysian air traffic control and was due to sign into Ho Chi Minh ground staff. Two data messaging systems, the transponder and the Aircraft Communications ­Addressing and Reporting System then failed, or were switched off, yet someone was still flying the plane, judging by the multiple unscheduled turns it then took.

Ms Pardi says there is no way a man so motivated by a desire to do good could be responsible for the deaths of 238 other people. She had met him when they volunteered for the People’s Justice Party, a centrist multi-racial political party formed by twice-jailed former deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim, to whom he was distantly related to by marriage.

Anwar had lost an appeal on sodomy charges hours before the doomed flight. Reports Captain Zaharie had been an observer in court have been discredited.

“He was a nice person, a good person. We both wanted to make a change for our country. That’s why we were involved in politics,” she said. “We talked about family, we talked about interests and that’s how he got close with me and my children. He always came to my house and brought things for the kids …. toys, food.

“He always encouraged me to look after my children. Sometimes having a disabled child makes you so sad because you can’t do anything for your child, but he gave me advice and inner strength.

“If I ever complained that I was tired or too busy at work, he would say, ‘You should not complain ­because my work is harder than yours. I can’t afford to make any mistakes because one mistake could ruin everything.’ ”

As the friendship developed, Captain Zaharie would regularly call in to see Ms Pardi and her children, then aged 3, 6 and 10, on his return from long flights. In ­between visits, the two would talk on the phone, she said. “Last time I contacted him was two days ­before the tragedy. I did not know he was on the flight until everyone from the party started contacting me asking ‘Is the captain on the plane?’ I said no, but when I got home from work I watched the news and saw his name.”

The two saw each other less frequently from January 2014 because of a “personal matter” she would not elaborate on. Captain Zaharie continued to see her children after she urged him not to “let the children become victims of this separation”.

In the months after MH370’s disappearance, there was persistent speculation about the state of Captain Zaharie’s marriage. Though his wife, Faizah, and three adult children have not commented publicly on the issue, close relatives insist there were no problems so grave they may have caused a respected pilot with 32 years’ flying experience to snap.

Captain Zaharie’s brother-in- law Asuad Khan Mustafa told The Australian his sister’s marriage suffered “storms here and there”, like any other, but the childhood sweethearts enjoyed a close relationship that could weather difficulties, including infidelity.

“We’re Muslim, right, so why worry? You can marry four (women), so who cares?” he said, adding the couple had actively been planning for the future.

An interim report into the flight’s disappearance released in March last year by Malaysia’s Transport Ministry found Captain Zaharie’s ability to handle stress at home and at work was “good”, and there was nothing untoward in his financial affairs.

“There was no known history of apathy, anxiety or irritability. There were no significant changes in his lifestyle, interpersonal conflict or family stresses,” the report found, after a year-long analysis.

“There were no behavioural signs of social isolation, change in habits or interest, self-neglect, drug or alcohol abuse of the captain, first officer and cabin crew.”

It makes no mention of Captain Zaharie’s friendship with Ms Pardi or that it was considered significant enough to warrant four interviews with investigators.

The pilot analysis references his healthy personal financial situation, his flying record, medical checks and psychological state.

The Australian has been told by former Malaysia Airlines staff, including a former airline chief steward and Mr Huzlan, that the company did not conduct psychological evaluations of pilots or crew.

Ms Pardi said she did not know whether Captain Zaharie’s ­immediate family knew about their friendship, but she had since taken her children to meet his elder sister, Sakinab, who, she said, was “touched” by how close her youngest child had been to her brother. She had once asked Captain Zaharie why he wanted to play such a fatherly role in her children’s lives and he had replied: “I just want to be close to them.”

“He (Captain Zaharie) told me his kids had grown up and he loved children. Sometimes he would just drop by for 10 or 15 minutes,” she said. “He said he spent a lot of time alone in his house — just him and the maid.”

Ms Pardi said Captain Zaharie was particularly close to her youngest daughter, who was three when MH370 disappeared, and it had taken the now six-year-old more than two years to accept he was not coming back. “She kept asking, ‘Where is he, why is the plane not coming back, what happened to the plane?’ I just tell her to pray for him to come back and she prays every day for him.”

She keeps a photo of the two of them at a cafe on her phone: they are close and smiling.

Though Ms Pardi will not ­reveal the subject of their final ­exchange, she said if she could have the conversation over, she would tell Captain Zaharie: “I will continue your dreams for me. He wanted me to be serious about politics. Now, in my career, every time a chance comes to me of course I will think ‘This was his prayer for me’.”

Asked whether she thought that last conversation might hold a clue to one of the world’s aviation mysteries, Ms Pardi replied: “I don’t know.”

[*]

Next an update to the DOI archives -  

Courtesy AFP via asiaone.com ...

Mozambique shows 3 new pieces of suspected MH370 debris

AFP | Tuesday, Sep 6, 2016 Joao de Abreu 



Joao de Abreu ®, President of Mozambique's Civil Aviation Institute (IACM), and a marshal display pieces of suspected aircraft wreckage found off the east African coast of Mozambique at Mozambique's Civil Aviation Institute (IACM) in Maputo on September 5, 2016.
Photo: AFP
 
MAPUTO - Mozambique authorities on Monday exhibited three new pieces of aircraft that washed up along its coast and are suspected of belonging to the missing flight MH370.The largest item is a triangular shaped piece which is red and white on one side and metallic on the other.

It was picked up late last month by a South African hotelier off the waters of Mozambique's southern province of Inhambane.Joao de Abreu, director of Mozambique's aviation authority said it was the first time a coloured piece had been found.At a news conference, he said the piece could be "an aileron, a flap,(or) an elevator." On the inside, "we can see a label which will make it much easier to identify which aircraft it belongs to," he said.

The other two pieces are smaller and were picked up by the son of a European Union diplomat near the southern resort of Xai Xai and handed to the authorities last month, he said, giving no further details.The items will be sent to Malaysia for examination.Malaysia Airlines jet MH370 vanished in March 2014 with 239 people onboard as it was flying from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing.Australia, which is leading the search, has determined that the five pieces of debris examined so far - found in Mozambique, South Africa and Mauritius - almost certainly came from the plane.The first debris linked to MH370 - a two-metre-long (almost seven-foot) wing part known as a flaperon - washed up on the French Indian Ocean island of Reunion a year ago. - See more at: http://news.asiaone.com/news/world/mozam...huccr.dpuf

[*]MTF...P2

[Peetwo]

Update: The plot thickens in the 'he said, she said' leaking sieve wars...
First from the ATSB's arch nemesis Byron Bailey who appears to be attempting to revive a dead horse :
 

Inquiry needed into MH370 effort
12:00am
Byron Bailey

A very experienced and competent 18,000-hour pilot such as Zaharie would not be doing this for fun.

[*]

Not sure of the Oz motive here but for whatever reason BB seems to generate a 50:50 split on detractors vs supporters in the 50 odd comments so far. The other benefit is he has taken the Oz aviation section's resident troll Mick off Binger's back...

Mick

1 day ago

Contrary to Captain Bailey's assertion that the ATSB failed to consult widely, they have worked closely with international experts in satellite communications, aircraft systems, data modelling and accident investigation, including specialists from the Air Accidents Investigation Branch (the AAIB is the UK's aircraft accident investigation authority), the National Transportation Safety Board (the NTSB is the aircraft accident investigation authority for the US), Boeing (the manufacturer of the missing B777), Inmarsat (the British satellite communications business that first revealed MH370's southern track into the Southern Indian Ocean) and Thales (the manufacturer of air-satellite-ground communications equipment).    The ATSB even consulted with Captain Simon Hardy, an experienced B777 pilot and the originator of the "rogue pilot" theory.   It appears that Captain Bailey is miffed that the ATSB hasn't consulted with him. 

That said, Captain Bailey could do with some help from those satellite communications experts he ridicules (dark matter? gravational waves?) as his understanding of the Burst Frequency Offset (BFO) data is typically misguided and wafer thin.   The BFO is the difference between frequency associated with transmission from the airplane to the satellite and from the satellite to the ground station, the Doppler-shift (they're radio-waves, Captain, so there is no "red-shift", that's astronomy and light waves).   And contrary to our misinformed Captain, the BFO data is interpreted in three planes, not two, and it is quite sensitive to movement in the vertical plane (ie  changes of altitude). 
And Crash investigators at the US National Transportation Safety Board have not said the data is insufficient to draw any conclusion!   John Cox, an aviation safety consultant who worked for the NTSB some 15 years ago, said the data is insufficient to draw any conclusion.   A good number of people who are trained in satellite communications disagree with him. 

Captain Bailey reveals yet another of his gifts in being able to tell us what Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah did not do for fun;  perhaps he could also tell us his favourite colour!   Anyone who has taken the time to actually examine the data from Captain Zaharie Shah's Microsoft Flight Simulator X (FSX) game can tell you:

(a) that the six data points are not navigational waypoints as Captain Bailey suggests, they are fragments of *.FLT files at arbitrary points during a run of the simulator.
(b) while the six data points appear to be from a flight from Kuala Lumpur to Williams Field, McMurdo Base, Antarctica there are inconsistencies in the fuel quantities that put a question mark over whether the points are all related to one simulated flight. 
© the flight terminates upon fuel exhaustion with a rapid steep descent from 37,600 ft down to 4,000 ft over a distance of just 6 kilometres - the airplane crashes, there is no pilot-controlled glide. 

And to round off, and in keeping with Captain Bailey's proclivity for just making stuff up, today we're treated to "It has been reported Zaharie put on much more fuel than was needed for the flight to Beijing."   Absolute and utter nonsense!   The Captain ordered 49,100 kg of fuel;  37,200 kg of planhed trip-fuel plus the mandatory reserves for a 46 minute diversion to his primary diversion airport, Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport, and a 1 hour 45 minutes diversion to his secondary diversion airport, Hangzhou Xiaoshan International Airport.   The actual fuel load was confirmed by the B777's Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) at the start of MH370's flight and then again some 30 minutes into the flight, when fuel burn was as anticipated.

[*]
And round..and round it goes with a very circular argument.... zzzzzzz - boring... (ps although I do agree with BB on it being time for an inquiry)
Next the Oz SE Asian correspondent Amanda has been busy in recent days, with this yesterday:

MH370 pilot eyed Oz retirement
12:00amAmanda Hodge
The pilot of missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 planned to retire to Australia with his wife, say relatives.

[*]
 Nothing really new there, although I did find this somewhat out of context comment from the Malaysian hostie's union kind of interesting:

..As the MH370 search prepares to wind down, Malaysia’s National Union of Flight Attendants has again queried why a second transponder located in the cabin crew closet outside the cockpit was not triggered — or its signal picked up — after Captain Zaharie signed off from Malaysian air space and the cockpit transponder stopped transmitting.

[*]Maybe a prelude to more to come...

[*]And finally today Amanda came out with this:

Release of MH370 files ordered
12:00amAmanda Hodge
A Malaysian court has ordered the releases of all files relating to the ­disappearance of Flight MH370.

A Malaysian court has ordered the government and Malaysia Airlines hand over all relevant documents relating to the ­disappearance of Flight MH370, in a critical ruling that families of missing passengers hope will ­provide long-awaited answers to a 2 ½-year-old mystery.


A Kuala Lumpur high court judge yesterday granted general discovery to relatives of 32 ­missing passengers who were on board the flight from Kuala ­Lumpur to Beijing which went missing in the early hours of March 8, 2014.

Some 76 plaintiffs, comprising 66 Chinese nationals, eight Indians and two US citizens, allege the airline failed to give a proper ­account of events that occurred during the flight, which relatives were later informed by text message had gone down in the southern Indian Ocean.

In a March 3 statement of claim the families also allege negligence, breach of contract, breach of statutory duty and breach of the Montreal Convention by Malaysia Airlines Systems.

Malaysia Airlines Bhd (MAB), Malaysia’s Department of Civil Aviation director general, the Royal Malaysian Air Force and the government of Malaysia are also named as defendants.

Since the plane’s disappearance families of the missing passengers and crew have consistently accused the Malaysian government of hiding information and failing to keep them informed of major developments and decisions.

Tommy Thomas, lead counsel representing the plaintiffs and one of Malaysia’s most senior lawyers, told The Australian the court’s decision to grant general discovery was more a “matter of course” than a major legal victory.

“You can’t do a trial without documents. It’s as simple as that,” he said.

Mr Thomas said of particular relevance to his clients were “all conversations relating to the plane turning back”.

“Those conversations would be critical because that was the time to save the plane,” he said.

“Nobody was asking them to shoot down the plane. Nobody shoots down their own country’s plane but how about following it to find out where it goes?”
The aircraft made its last contact with air traffic control at 1.19am (Malaysian time) before disappearing from radar screens.

According to information pieced together by investigators, over the course of the next six hours it is believed to have made several turns, deviating westward from its planned flight path to cross the Malay Peninsula, passing just south of Penang before flying across the Strait of ­Malacca, and heading south over the Indian Ocean.

Both the government and MAS have until October 20 to comply with the discovery order or appeal the plaintiffs ­application for access to 37 documents, including notes, memos, cargo manifest and all relevant investigative reports into the disappearance of MH370.

Lawyers for the Malaysian government have previously ­objected to the discovery application as a “fishing” expedition.

MAS lawyer Saranjit Singh said he understood the plaintiffs were entitled to general discovery against MAS to assist their case against the government of ­Malaysia, online Malaysian news site Malaysiakini reported.

But, he added, his client needed to read and understand the grounds of judgment to determine whether it should appeal the order.

[*]MTF...P2

[Peetwo]

Reproduced with permission from Mike Chillit...

MH370’s Final Resting Place
Posted on September 10, 2016 by Mike Chillit — 5 Comments ↓

We can now say with a very high degree of certainty that MH370’s final resting place is a bit southeast of Zenith Plateau, on or near what is known as the Seventh Arc. Those who have been following this will recall that both China and Australia believed they detected ULB pings in the general area in early June 2014. Then something unfortunate happened: “experts” took control, dismissed the pings, and moved the search thousands of kilometers south and west of Perth Australia.

It has taken two and a half years to determine exactly why the search was in the right place in June 2014. Unraveling this mystery, and make no mistake, this IS where the plane is resting, has required examination of a lot of ancillary data that have largely been ignored by those conducting the search in an official capacity.

Here is a simple overview of the dynamics in the Zenith Plateau area on March 8, 2014 when MH370 crashed into the South Indian Ocean between Batavia Seamount and Zenith Plateau.



This chart depicts the coincident locations of MH370’s crash landing near the green placemark, and NOAA drifter #101655. We know that is where it happened and how it unfolded by the paths two NOAA drifters took after Tropical Cyclone Gillian moved through the area two weeks later. Numerous drift analyses conducted by the Author and others around the world point to that precise location as the epicenter of the crash.

In total, it was Tropical Cyclone Gillian’s march south of Java, and then west of Exmouth, Australia that helps us determine where MH370 is resting. But we can also be grateful to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) that happened to have two critically important “drifters” near the spot where MH370 crashed a few minutes past midnight UTC, March 8, 2014. In terms of local time, it was 20 minutes past 6 AM, and light enough to be seen clearly if anyone had been there to watch it unfold.

But then, like a giant fan, Gillian blew across that exact spot on March 25th and made it almost impossible to find or reconstruct.



Wiki Commons graphic of Gillian, showing relative intensity and path. The drifters identified in this article were pulled into Gillian at roughly where she turned due west; west of Exmouth, Australia.

Of course, it isn’t possible to simply look at the charts above and come to such sweeping conclusions. Fortunately, there is a great deal of additional information that helps us reconstruct the scene with enough confidence to know it is the only way it could have happened. For example. the two drifters that were chased out of comfy environs by Gillian, had actually been languishing in the nearby Leeuwin Currents for months. But when Gillian entered the picture, they moved quickly to the west: #101655 moved northish; #101703 also drifted to the northwest, but somewhat south of the other. And that is precisely what happened to some of the plane’s debris, too.



This chart shows the respective paths taken by these two NOAA drifters prior to Gillian’s appearance on March 25, 2014. Note that they were mostly non-directional.

It is only when we combine the totality of those two drifter paths with TC Gillian and subsequent debris finds in the same areas those drifters were dispatched to, that we begin to see something other that a mash of jumbled paths.



Once Gillian entered the picture on March 25, 2014, both NOAA drifters were immediately redirected away from the Australia coast and into the upper Mascarene Island area.

Numerous other models of drifter behavior north and west of the Australian mainland have also been conducted by the author. While they are more general in nature, they point to the same overall drift tendencies. NOAA drifters that crossed the 7th Arc between about -15° South latitude and -20° South latitude had by far the greatest chance of not only ending up in the Mascarene area, but doing it within the 450-day limit it took for the flaperon to end up on Reunion Island and BE NOTICED. Here are a few graphic summaries.



In terms of “certainty” of outcome, about half of all NOAA drifters that crossed the 7th Arc between -15° South and -20° South ended up in the Mascarene area within 450 days. No other part of the 7th Arc comes close.



NOAA drifters that crossed the 7th Arc between -20° South and -25° South were not as likely to end up in the Mascarene area as those 5° farther north, but they exhibit a tendency to behave much more like the two drifters noted above, #101655 and #101703. That is, they tended to get caught in Western Australia’s Leeuwin Currents and tarry for long periods of time south of Geraldton before finally moving northwest.



Given all of the data examined, including cyclone data and NOAA drifter data, and the associated dates and constraints on arriving in the Mascarenes within 450 days, MH370 is almost certain to be found right where China and Australia believed they detected ULB signals in June 2014.

Here is a Google Earth closeup of the area in which the plane is resting, on or near the 7th Arc. That is part of the good news: the 7th Arc appears to be substantially correct.



It should be noted that while Zenith Plateau is directly beneath the usual portrayal of the 7th Arc, Batavia Seamount is actually a bit west of it, as depicted here with a slightly askew oval.

Event Timeline

March 8, 2014: MH370 crashed into the South Indian Ocean close to Inmarsat’s mathematical depiction of the 7th Arc between Batavia Seamount and Zenith Plateau at about 00:20 UTC March 8, 2014. The seafloor in that area is rugged and challenging. While the exact coordinates remain unknown, they are likely to be approximately -24 S, 102.5 E. The ULB may have been dislodged and been swept up in local currents, curling around the east side of Zenith Plateau and from there toward the Mascarene Islands.

March 8, 2014 to March 25, 2014: Limited surface searches of the area were conducted and debris was spotted, but nothing was positively identified as belonging to the aircraft. Invariably, satellite and aircraft surveillance images could not be replicated by surface craft and personnel. That was a common problem in all surface search efforts associated with this tragedy. Reason unknown.

March 25, 2014: Tropical Cyclone Gillian moved directly across the crash site, dispersing what little debris there had been, and sending most of it toward the Mascarene Islands, the Comoros Islands and into the Mozambique Channel. Two NOAA drifters that happened to be near the crash site were whisked away as well in the same westerly direction. Those two drifters now point us to the location in which the aircraft came to rest.

While Gillian had diminished from peak intensity of about 125 mph on March 23, 2014, she remained formidable and sent drifters and debris in her path off to the west.
Drifter Summary: Drifter #101655 continued to function until July 26, 2014. It had traveled 4,047 kilometers since its encounter with Gillian on March 25, 2014, an average of 33 km per day for 123 days. NOAA classified its death as “ran aground”.

Drifter #101703 remained in service until July 23, 2015, a full year longer than its traveling companion. It traveled 4,391 km after its encounter with Gillian on March 25, 2014 at a more leisurely pace than its mate. It averaged 9 km per day, perhaps partly because it took more of a glancing blow from the storm. NOAA classified this death as “stop transmitting”, which is certainly possible, but it was also washed up on St. Brandon Island when they found it. The tiny island group is not a tourist destination; it is sparsely populated, and seldom sees beachcombers.

Conclusions

In the end, Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s proclamation that the plane had been found was neither premature not incorrect, as widely claimed by almost everyone, at the Prime Minister’s expense. He was correct. His detractors were not.

Whomever made the decision to move the search thousands of kilometers to the south made a horrific blunder that prevented families from closing the human part of the tragedy quickly and privately. Anyone who spends a little focused time working with Southern Indian Ocean drift patterns, NOAA drifter patterns and also spends some time tracking physical objects from one side of the ocean to the other, and back, is capable of seeing how badly mistaken this search effort has been for more than two years. We can assume everyone acted in an effort to find the plane; but clearly, not all who were entrusted to make decisions had any idea what they were doing.

This entry was posted in 7th Arc by Mike Chillit. Bookmark the permalink

Gold star and a gold plated key for the Tim Tam cupboard MC...
MTF...P2

[Kharon]

Aunty Pru Gold Star awards.

We don’t get to award the AP gold star very often, the Rev. David Forsyth has one, several members of the Senate hold one, there are a handful of others, but it’s rare.  There are three potential candidates from the MH 370 discussion, now only two remain as Mike Chillit is awarded his.  

Speech:- “Well done Mike; well done indeed.  "The drifter analysis is difficult to fault, impeccable logic, totally credible proposition well argued and supported by real, rather than hypothetical data”. “The study begs many questions of ‘officialdom’, which demand answers, but not today”.

[ventus45]

Entirely agree.

Mike's untiring dedication to the task of hunting down mountains of useful data, analysing it, and presenting it in an understandable form, is laudable.

[Peetwo]

MH370: The "he said, she said" & DOI latest.

In the Oz today 'that man' is back stirring the MH370 "he said, she said" pot: 

MH370 ‘flash fire’ theory rejected by air crash experts


An alleged charred piece of wreckage from MH370 as shown on the Seven Network’s news.
Ean Higgins
The Australian
12:00AM September 16, 2016

@EanHiggins
[img=0x0]http://pixel.tcog.cp1.news.com.au/track/component/author/0573acb566bb47c45e64e4c55a998aba/?esi=true&t_product=the-australian&t_template=s3/austemp-article_common/vertical/author/widget&td_bio=false[/img]
International aviation experts have debunked renewed speculation that a “flash fire” brought down Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.

Air crash investigators and an aerospace engineer say logic combined with the known facts work against the theory, and that the provenance of a supposedly charred piece of wreckage is ­suspect.

They also describe a recent US Federal Aviation Administration airworthiness directive regarding replacing oxygen mask tubes on Boeing 777s as routine and in this case irrelevant since it would not have applied to MH370.

The FAA had issued the directive to replace “the low-pressure oxygen flex hoses in the gaseous passenger oxygen system” of some 777 models because they could “potentially be conductive” and lead to oxygen fires. But Malaysia Airlines and the FAA have confirmed the model of 777 used on flight MH370 was not equipped with the oxygen system in question.

“The Boeing 777 used in flight MH370 would not have been ­affected by this AD,” the FAA said.

Airlines that do have the model have six years to comply.

The FAA directive was one of two developments this week which prompted renewed discussion about whether a fire could explain the loss of MH370, which disappeared on March 8, 2014, on a flight from Kuala Lumpur to ­Beijing with 239 people aboard.
Wing flap is part of MH370

US lawyer Blaine Gibson, who is mounting his own amateur quest to find pieces of MH370 on the African coast and Indian Ocean islands, claims he had found “the most significant piece of potential wreckage” in the form of a blackened piece of panel which he handed over to the Australian Transport Safety Bureau.

“The top layer of paint has been singed, scorched black,” Mr Gibson told Channel 7 in Perth.

A spokeswoman for the ATSB said the object had “yet to be examined” and “comments about the state of the debris are entirely speculative”.

A member of the independent group of experts investigating the MH370 mystery, British aerospace engineer Richard Godfrey, said a photo of the debris “shows burn marks underneath the ­location of a fastener or bracket”.

“This implies that the item, even if from MH370, was thrown on a fire (possibly a beach fire) after the crash.”

Mr Godfrey is one of three experts who say the idea that a fire could explain the loss of MH370 does not add up. “No aircraft with a fire on board managed to fly for much more than 20 minutes, let alone seven hours,” he said.

Veteran US pilot and air crash investigator John Cox said: “In every other case where a fire has existed (eg, UPS 006, Asiana 991, SwissAir 111) the crew has made a radio call and initiated a diversion. MH370 did not do either of those.”

Another investigator described the fire theory as “all but impossible”. “Basic logic says that such a fire does not make any sense when you break it down from an investigation point of view,” he said.

Forever the opportunist resident Aviation Section (the Oz) troll Mick, predictively fired yet another salvo back over the Oz foredeck...

Mick 3 hours ago

In keeping with The Australian's astounding ability to botch facts regarding MH370 today were treated to more misinformation, this time regarding a mandatory airworthiness directive for B777 operators to replace the low-pressure oxygen hoses associated with the crew's oxygen system (the hoses in question attach the crew's quick-donning oxygen masks to the oxygen system) issued by the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).

Contrary to what we're told in this article, FAA AD 2012-13-05 requires B777 operators to "... Replace the low-pressure oxygen hoses with non-conductive low-pressure oxygen hoses in the flight compartment ..." and sets a time frame for compliance of "Within 18 months after the effective date of this AD ...".   The directive's effective date was 16 August 2012.

And if Mr Higgins had bothered consulting the Factual Information Report released by The Malaysian ICAO Annex 13 Safety Investigation Team for MH370 well over a year ago he would know that not only did the FAA directive apply to the Malaysian Airlines B777 fleet but that MAS had in fact actioned that directive on 9M-MRO (the B777 that operated as MH370) on 17 January 2014.

---

&..

Mick 2 hours ago

@graham Yes, graham, the AD came off the back of the Egyptair MS 667 fire.   Boeing issued a number of recommendations as a result of that fire:

Alert Service Bulletin 777-35A0027, dated 15 December 2011, recommending that operators of early model B777 airplanes replace low pressure oxygen hoses with non-conductive low pressure oxygen hoses located in the flight deck; and

Service Bulletin 777-33-0042, dated 9 January 2012, recommending that B777 operators inspect and if necessary repair the captain's and first officer's oxygen light plate wiring.

Alert Service Bulletin 777-35A0027, which was only a recommendation for early model B777s, was superseded by FAA AD 2012-13-05, which was a mandatory requirement for all B777s.

This stuff is all a matter of the public record. It is appalling that an aviation reporter manages to consistently botch this sort of factual information.

Oh well at least he has got off Binger's case..

Next at about dinnertime last night the ATSB tweeped the following:

#MH370 report: Debris examination – update No.3: Identification of large flap section recovered off Tanzanian coast http://tinyurl.com/z2upmkm

Published: 15 September 2016

Debris examination – update No. 3
Identification of large flap section recovered off the Tanzanian coast

Introduction

On 20 June 2016, a large item of debris was found on the island of Pemba, off the coast of Tanzania. Preliminary identification from photographs indicated that the item was likely a section of Boeing 777 outboard flap (Figure 1).

Assistance from the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) was requested by the Malaysian Government in the formal identification of the item, to determine if the item came from the Malaysian Airlines Berhad (MAB) aircraft, registered 9M-MRO and operating as MH370. The Malaysian investigation team secured the item of debris and arranged shipping to the ATSB facilities in Canberra.

This document (Update 3) is a brief summary of the outcomes from the identification of the item, designated as Part number 5. It follows the identification of Part numbers 1 through 4, the outcomes of which were released by the ATSB in Updates 1 and 2, available on the ATSB website.

This debris identification summary is released with the concurrence of the Malaysian ICAO Annex 13 Safety Investigation Team for MH370.

Identification

Part No. 5
Part number 5 was preliminarily identified from photographs as an inboard section of a Boeing 777 outboard flap. On arrival at the ATSB, several part numbers were immediately located on the debris that confirmed the preliminary identification. This was consistent with the physical appearance, dimensions and construction of the part.

A date stamp associated with one of the part numbers indicated manufacture on 23 January 2002 (Figure 2), which was consistent with the 31 May 2002 delivery date for 9M-MRO.

All of the identification stamps had a second “OL” number, in addition to the Boeing part number, that were unique identifiers relating to part construction. The Italian part manufacturer recovered build records for the numbers located on the part and confirmed that all of the numbers related to the same serial number outboard flap that was shipped to Boeing as line number 404. Aircraft line number 404 was delivered to Malaysian Airlines and registered as 9M-MRO.

Based on the above information, the part was confirmed as originating from the aircraft registered 9M-MRO and operating as MH370.

Figure 1: Inboard section of outboard flap (inverted)


Source: ATSB

Figure 2: Exemplar part number and date stamp


Source: ATSB

Further analysis

At the time of writing, the flap section was being examined for any evidence of interaction with mechanisms, supports and surrounding components (such as the flaperon, which abuts the inboard end of the outboard flap) that may indicate the state of flap operation at the time of separation from the wing. This information may contribute to an increased understanding of end of flight scenarios.

Conclusions
It was confirmed that Part No. 5 was the inboard section of a Boeing 777 right, outboard flap, originating from the Malaysian Airlines aircraft registered 9M-MRO.
   
Overview

At 1722 Coordinated Universal Time on 7 March 2014, Boeing 777-200ER aircraft, registered 9M-MRO and operating as Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370, disappeared from air traffic control radar and a search was commenced by Malaysian authorities. The aircraft had taken off from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia on a scheduled passenger service to Beijing, China with 227 passengers and 12 crew on board.

Under Annex 13 to the Convention on International Civil Aviation Aircraft Accident and Incident Investigation (Annex 13) Malaysia, as the country of registration, has investigative responsibility for the accident.

On 31 March 2014, the Malaysian Government accepted the Government of Australia’s offer to take the lead in the search and recovery operation in the southern Indian Ocean in support of the Malaysian accident investigation. This assistance and expertise will be provided through the accredited representative mechanism of Annex 13.

In accordance with paragraphs 5.23 and 5.24 of Annex 13, on 1 April 2014, the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) appointed an accredited representative and a number of advisors to the accredited representative (ATSB investigators). These investigators’ work will be undertaken as part of an External Investigation under the provisions of the Australian Transport Safety Investigation Act 2003.

The Malaysian Ministry of Transport is responsible for and will administer the release of all investigation reports into this accident. Information on the investigation is available from the following websites:

• www.mh370.gov.my
  
• mh370.mot.gov.my
  

Any enquiries in respect of the ongoing investigation should, in the first instance, be directed to:

Malaysian Annex 13 Safety Investigation Team
Email: MH370SafetyInvestigation@mot.gov.my
 
General details

Date: 07 Mar 2014
 
Investigation status: Active
 
Time: 1722 UTC
 
Investigation type: External Investigation
 
Location   (show map): Southern Indian Ocean
 
Occurrence type: Missing aircraft
 
State: International
 
Occurrence class: Technical
 
Release date: 24 May 2016
 
Occurrence category: Technical Analysis
 
Report status: Pending
 
Highest injury level: Fatal
 
Expected completion: Nov 2016
 
Aircraft details

Aircraft model: 777-200ER
 
Aircraft registration: 9M-MRO
 
Operator: Malaysian Airlines
 
Type of operation: Air Transport High Capacity
 
Sector: Jet
 
Departure point: Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Destination: Beijing, China
 
 
 

MTF...P2

[Peetwo]

DOI Update: On for young and old...

Further to the - "he said, she said"/ "the pilot did it, the pilot didn't do it" bun fight - the Weekend Oz has come out swinging, with 2 additions to their smear campaign of the ATSB coupled with BB's continued calls for a formal inquiry into the whole Beaker manufactured cock-up/cover up:

MH370 death dive theory ‘backed’
12:00amEAN HIGGINS
Australian authorities believe a flap confirmed to be from Flight MH370 was not deployed when it hit the water.

..The ATSB announced on Thursday that the flap, which came to it in July from an island off Africa, had been confirmed as coming from MH370 based on a detailed analysis of serial numbers and other identifiers.

“The flap section was being exam­ined for any evidence … that may indicate the state of flap operation at the time of separation from the wing,” it said in a statement. “This information may contribute to an increased under­stan­d­ing of end-of-flight scenarios.”

While the ATSB insists the flap is still being tested, the head of the organisation’s search for MH370, Peter Foley, gave the game away in a little-reported interview last month.

He told the Australian Associated Press news agency that Australian analysis of the flap in Can­berra suggested it had not been deployed when it hit the water but retracted inside the wing. A pilot attempting a soft landing would have extended the wing flaps.

Mr Foley told AAP that analysis of the satellite data — whose ­accuracy has been challenged by some experts — showed it was falling at a rapid and increasing rate.
“The rate of descent combined with the position of the flap — if it’s found that it is not deployed — will almost certainly rule out either a controlled ditch or glide,” he said. “If it’s not in a deployed state, it ­validates, if you like, where we’ve been looking.”

---

ATSB should go see Sully
12:00amByron Bailey
Armchair experts and computer models don’t hold a candle to veterans.

...As for Sully, it is a brilliant movie and a must-see for all airline pilots and cabin crew. It may possibly be one of the best crew training films made. The well-trained and experienced cabin crew performed admirably in their primary function of passenger safety.

It is a shame a movie could not be made about Qantas QF32, the A380 aircraft engine blow-up out of Singapore where the flight crew, under captain Richard Champion de Crespigny, faced a scenario that their simulator training had not covered (this was also the case with the Sully event).

The engine blow-up took out most of the electrical and hydraulic systems, and it was only the professionalism of the crew of the world’s safest airline that managed an extraordinary feat of airmanship in landing the aircraft safely back at Changi airport.

The ATSB should realise that the opinions of armchair experts, mathematical modelling and simulations do not stack up against the real-world experience and knowledge of professional airline pilots.

Who made the decision to go with the “unresponsive pilots” theory?

Former ATSB head Martin Dolan and the responsible minister at the time, Warren Truss, need to front an inquiry to answer this. - P2: this bit I totally agree with, going to happen? - probably not, way too much dirty laundry both domestically & internationally in that lot, nice to dream though...

 People bag the Oz campaign and I must admit it is somewhat repetitious dragging the same lines out again and again... It is a campaign more akin to tabloid media, rather than a national newspaper...

If nothing else the whole sordid political argy-bargy, rumours & innuendo, name calling etc. seems to have the effect of keeping the shambolic ATSB-Beaker originated-MH370 search shenanigans firmly in the MSM/Social media spotlight. That can only have a positive impact, as I believe the Malaysian government dearly want this all to simply fade away into a distant memory. This article from the Guardian would seem to reinforce the view that Malaysia are just going through the motions.. : MH370: debris found in Madagascar in June still not collected by Malaysia

However a couple of recent reported examples point to a strange dichotomy (wedge) emerging, where the Malaysian desire (above) is becoming increasingly less likely to occur and in conflict with (at least) Australia in the Tripartite MH370 search partners.   

First with an extract from my last AA&MH370 post: 

ATM ID:
16AMSA084
Agency: Australian Maritime Safety Authority
Category: 83121604 - Online database information retrieval systems
Close Date & Time: 19-Sep-2016 2:00 pm (ACT Local Time)
Show close time for other time zones

Publish Date: 24-Aug-2016
Location: Other, Overseas
ATM Type: Request for Tender

---

Multi Agency Access: No
Panel Arrangement: No

---

Description: AMSA is assisting in the establishment of a Drift Modelling and Search and Rescue system to support the search and rescue (SAR) agencies of our partner countries.

A system is required to support the search and rescue (SAR) agencies of Sri Lanka, the Maldives and Mauritius (the “partner countries”) to model the drift of floating objects and to provide support in prosecuting and managing search and rescue incidents.

This tender is for the provision of the system (including the first year’s maintenance) and the payment of the second year’s maintenance fee.

Contracting and payment for maintenance of the system beyond the second year will be undertaken directly between the successful tenderer and the respective partner countries should they choose to continue...
 
..Timeframe for Delivery: The Term of the subsequent contract will be for a potential minimum period of 20 months. 
Address for Lodgement: https://www.tenders.gov.au
Addenda Available: View Addenda

Now maybe it is purely coincidental but I am not really a great believer in coincidences and AMSA have had a long running MoU with the CSIRO on oceanography research & support, including SAR drift modelling:

Ref: CSIRO blog - "..CSIRO has a Memorandum of Understanding with AMSA that allows them, during a maritime incident, to call on us for scientific knowledge and technical support.

Incidents include oil spills, search and rescue, shipping accidents and in the case of MH370, modelling and projecting the track of debris spotted by satellites..."

  
Ever an optimist, what I'd like to think is that the 'powers to be' have finally seen the error of their ways and are now going to pass back responsibility to the true Maritime expert Government agency AMSA. After all, as "K" eloquently put, WTD does the ATSB know about SAR, deep sea search/salvage and drift modelling...
A further sign that there is something afoot, our friendly frog Oceankoto ()  picked up on the fact that Fugro tender period has been extended and an additional $4 million has been added to the MH370 tab... :

CN ID: CN2562511-A10
Agency: Australian Transport Safety Bureau
Amendment Publish Date: 7-Sep-2016
Category: Marine transport
Contract Period: 11-Aug-2014 to 11-Aug-2018
Contract Value (AUD): $143,401,427.50
Amendment Value (AUD): $4,275,000.00
Amendment Start Date: 11-Aug-2016
Description: Prime Contractor for provision of Services for the search for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 (MH370)
Parent CN: CN2562511
Procurement Method: Open tender
ATM ID: RFT570-04
Confidentiality - Contract: Yes
Confidentiality Reason(s) - Contract: Costing/profit information
Intellectual property
Confidentiality - Outputs: Yes
Confidentiality Reason(s) - Outputs:
Intellectual property
Consultancy: No
Agency Reference ID:

---

Supplier Details

Name: Fugro Survey Pty Ltd
Postal Address:
Town/City: Balcatta
Postcode: 6021
State/Territory: WA
Country: AUSTRALIA
ABN: 81 009 172 990

   
Could this extension (and additional monies) be to keep Fugro on standby until such time as AMSA can narrow down a higher probability search zone, based on independent expert analysis (drift modelling) from the AMSA tender? The timeframe of the tenders certainly matches...

Cynically speaking these tenders also mean that the ATSB will keep effective narrative and control of the MH370 southern sector of the 7th Arc until 11 Aug 2018...

Now it could be that my (above) cynical view is in actual fact close to reality but then I spotted this article:

Malaysia: Downing mode of MH370 under investigation

Investigators to probe if plane was deliberately ditched or suffered uncontrolled fall after latest debris confirmation
16.09.2016   [/url] [url=http://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&url=http://aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/malaysia-downing-mode-of-mh370-under-investigation/646984&title=Malaysia: Downing mode of MH370 under investigation]

By P Prem Kumar
KUALA LUMPUR

A team investigating missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 will begin probing whether the commercial aircraft was deliberately ditched or experienced an uncontrolled fall while carrying 239 people, according to Malaysia's transport minister.

Liow Tiong Lai told Anadolu Agency on Friday that both the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) and the MH370 Safety Investigation Team will look into details of debris confirmed to belong to the aircraft to determine the falling mode of MH370 in March 2014.

"The teams will examine into other details now and study how the accident happened -- whether it was a controlled or uncontrolled ditch into the sea," he said in a telephone conversation.

The minister had earlier dismissed a report claiming that evidence had shown that MH370 was deliberately crashed into the Indian Ocean by its pilot, and underlined that the ATSB had reported the incident was an "uncontrolled ditch".

His comments Friday come a day after he confirmed that a piece of debris -- an inboard flap of a Boeing 777 -- found in Tanzania last June originated from MH370.

In a statement late Thursday, Liow said the debris was determined to be from the missing aircraft after several numbers as well as its physical appearance and dimensions were found to match those of the ill-fated flight.

"A date stamp indicated that it was manufactured on Jan 23, 2002, and consistent with the May 31, 2002, delivery date for MH370,” Liow said.

"Besides the Boeing part number, all identification stamps have a second OL number which are unique identifiers relating to the part," the minister highlighted.

He added that an Italian parts manufacturer had confirmed that all numbers located on the recovered debris relate to the same outboard flap shipped to Boeing and delivered to Malaysia Airlines.

Flight MH370, carrying 239 passengers and crew, disappeared from radar shortly after taking off from Kuala Lumpur enroute to Beijing on March 8, 2014.

The jetliner has yet to be found despite massive search operations in the southern Indian Ocean where the aircraft was believed to have ended its flight after diverting from its original route.

The search and rescue mission -- which began immediately after -- involved some 160 assets as well as experts from 25 countries...

The part in bold would seem to indicate, that through international pressure, the Malaysians have no choice but to allow unimpeded proper aviation accident investigation, to assess and forensically examine all current/future recovered confirmed pieces of MH370 debris.
IMO this is very positive sign and a lot of kudos should go to the relentless and unrewarded efforts of Blaine Gibson - hat off and a key to the Tim Tam cupboard for that man...

MTF...P2

[Peetwo]

Christine Negroni's hypoxic flight theory for MH370: Courtesy of Air & Space magazine's August edition, with an extract from Christine Negroni's latest book 'The Crash Detectives', Christine outlines her theory for the reason MH370 stopped squawking it's designated ATC transponder code and apparently also lost 2-way comms, then subsequently disappeared...    

What Went Wrong on Malaysia Airlines Flight 370?

Two years later, its disappearance is still unsolved. A new book reconstructs the last minutes in the cockpit.

A Royal New Zealand Air Force P-3 searches the Indian Ocean off the coast of Western Australia for debris after the Malaysian airliner vanished. (Kim Christian/AP)

By Christine Negroni
Air & Space Magazine |
August 2016

No one knows for sure what happened aboard Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, which disappeared in March 2014. The scenario I am about to describe is based on a framework of events put forward by Malaysian and Australian investigators and other sources who participated in gathering or analyzing the known data. To this I have applied Occam’s razor, the principle that suggests that if there are many possible explanations for something, the simplest is the most likely.

Shortly after midnight on March 8, 2014, and seemingly without warning, what had been an entirely normal flight devolved into an illogical series of events. Such an unraveling has been seen before: when pilots are afflicted with altitude sickness, known as hypoxia.

An inability to get enough oxygen into the lungs to sustain cogent thought happens when airplanes lose pressurization, and that can happen for a variety of reasons. It can be triggered by an electrical problem or some mechanical difficulty. Pilots sometimes fail to turn the pressurization on at the beginning of the flight, but even when the pressurization is working as it should, there’s no way to keep a plane pressurized if there is a hole in the fuselage or if leaks at the seals of doorways, windows, or drains from the galley and bathrooms allow the denser air to escape.

At the time of the MH370 disaster, people were boarding airplanes around the world at a rate of eight million a day. Few air travelers then (or now) gave a thought to the fact that outside those aluminum walls the air is too thin to support clear thinking for more than a few seconds. What keeps us air travelers alive and, for the most part, in our right minds is a relatively simple process that pumps air into the airplane as it ascends, like air filling a bicycle tire. The air comes off the engines and is distributed via ducts. In most airliners, the cabin pressure is set to mimic the density of 8,000 feet.

On most flights the automated system works as designed. Still, at least 40 to 50 times a year, an airliner somewhere in the world will encounter a rapid decompression, according to a study for the Aviation Medical Society of Australia and New Zealand. James Stabile Jr., whose company, Aeronautical Data Systems, provides oxygen-related technology, said that when slow depressurizations are figured in, the rate increases even more. And because not all events require that regulators be notified, the problem, said Stabile, is “grossly underreported.”

When airplanes fail to pressurize after takeoff or lose cabin altitude in flight, it is potentially life-threatening. The reason we don’t see tragedies more often is that pilots are taught what to do. First, they put on their emergency oxygen masks. Then they verify that the system is on. There are many cases of pilots discovering that they failed to set cabin altitude upon takeoff.

If pressurization was set correctly and is still not working, pilots immediately begin a rapid descent to an altitude where supplemental oxygen is not necessary. When pilots do not follow these steps, the situation spins out of control quickly.

On an American Trans Air flight in 1996, a mind-boggling sequence of events brought a Boeing 727 a hairbreadth from catastrophe. ATA Flight 406 departed Chicago’s Midway Airport bound for St. Petersburg, Florida. At 33,000 feet, a warning horn sounded because the altitude in the cabin was registering 14,000 feet. First Officer Kerry Green was flying. He immediately put on his emergency oxygen mask. Captain Millard Doyle did not, opting to try to diagnose the problem. He instructed the flight engineer, Timothy Feiring, who was sitting behind and to his right, to silence the alarm. Doubtless already feeling the effects of steadily increasing altitude, Feiring could not find the control button. The captain turned his attention to the flight attendant in the cockpit, asking her if the passenger oxygen masks had dropped.

They had, she replied, and promptly collapsed in the doorway. Captain Doyle reached for his own mask, but it was too late. Disoriented and uncoordinated, he could not place it over his head, and he passed out too.

Two of four people in the cockpit were now incapacitated, and Feiring was having trouble thinking. He mistakenly opened an outflow valve, creating a rapid and total decompression of the airplane.

He put on his mask and then got up to attend to the unconscious flight attendant, placing the flight observer mask on her face but dislodging his own in the process. He passed out, falling over the center console between the two pilots’ seats.

Through all this, First Officer Green, with his mask on, was taking the plane down to a lower altitude at a speed of about 4,000 to 5,000 feet per minute. When the oxygen mask Feiring had placed on her face rejuvenated the flight attendant, she got up and returned the favor, replacing the mask that had come off him as he moved away from the flight engineer console. She also got a mask on Captain Doyle. Soon they both came to.

American Trans Air Flight 406 landed safely in Indianapolis. The story, equal parts chilling and absurd, tells me that knowing what to do does not mean pilots will actually do it if their ability to think has begun to deteriorate.

Nine years after American Trans Air 406, a Boeing 737 took off from Cyprus on August 14, 2005, on a flight to Athens. It never arrived. Helios Flight 522 ran out of fuel and crashed into a mountain south of the airport after flying on autopilot for more than two hours—long after the pilots and nearly everyone else on board had fallen into deep and prolonged unconsciousness. They had been starved of oxygen, presumably because the pilots failed to pressurize the aircraft after takeoff. The pilots were hypoxic before they realized what had gone wrong. 

The tail section of a Helios 737 that crashed into a Greek hillside in 2005. There were no survivors. (Courtesy documentingreality.com)

Notorious in 1999: After a depressurized Lear 35 carrying golfer Payne Stewart crashed after droning across the country for three hours, National Transportation Safety Board officer Robert Francis spoke at the impact site. (Beth A. Keiser/AP)

Last fall, loss of cabin pressure on a Ryanair flight from Crete to the Netherlands caused oxygen masks to drop. (A passenger caught the scene on his cellphone.) The pilot made an emergency landing in Frankfurt. (Dimitri Cools via Ryanair)

The Helios 522 disaster started about five and a half minutes after takeoff, as the plane climbed through 12,000 feet. A warning horn alerted the pilots that the altitude in the cabin had exceeded 10,000 feet.

Less than two minutes later, the passenger oxygen masks dropped, but Captain Hans-Jürgen Merten and First Officer Pampos Charalambous did not put on their masks, deciding instead to try to figure out what was wrong: a classic case of impaired judgment due to hypoxia. For nearly eight minutes, Captain Merten, a pilot with 5,000 hours of experience on the 737, conversed with the Helios operations center in Cyprus in an exchange that grew increasingly confusing to the crew on the ground.

As Helios 522 ascended over Cyprus, Captain Merten’s thoughts were scattering, and his brain was going dim. He collapsed at his last position, checking a switch panel behind his seat. First Officer Charalambous passed out against the air­plane control yoke.

We can assume that the passengers on the Helios 737 were uneasy once their masks dropped; everyone waited for news from the flight deck. But because those masks have a limited supply of oxy­gen, that uneasiness would not have lasted for more than 12 to 15 minutes; after that, the passengers would have passed out. This is why pilots quickly have to get the airplane to a lower altitude. But there was no one to initiate a descent, and the airplane flew on northwest, past southern Turkey and high above the Greek islands.

The flight attendants had higher-capacity emergency oxygen bottles and portable oxygen masks. With more than an hour’s supply in each, they were likely conscious longer than the passengers. Twenty-five-year-old Andreas Prodromou was a flight attendant who also happened to be a private pilot. He may have waited for word from the cockpit, but at some point he got up from his seat by the back galley and took action.

What we know from this point comes from two sources: recordings in the cockpit documenting Prodromou’s arrival on the flight deck and the observations of two Greek fighter pilots, dispatched to see what was happening with the airliner that had silently, and without contacting controllers, entered Greek airspace.

Two air force F-16s were flying on either side of the airliner. It was just four years after terrorists had crashed four commercial jets in New York, Pennsylvania, and Washington, D.C., and the Greek air force pilots expected to find something similar. Instead, they saw the first officer unconscious in the right-hand seat. One of the air force fliers saw Prodromou enter the cockpit. This means that Prodromou waited more than two hours after the depressurization.

Prodromou put on the captain’s oxygen mask as the last of the left engine’s fuel was spraying into the combustion chamber. In moments, the engine would stop producing power. He searched the control panel for something familiar—something that connected this complicated aircraft to the small planes on which he had learned to fly. Then the control wheel in front of him started to vibrate. The stick shaker warning is as dramatic as it is urgent, an attention-getting, multisensory advisory that the plane is about to stall. For two and a half minutes, Prodromou scanned the instrument panel while the airplane picked up speed in descent. The sound of rushing air joined the cacophony of warnings.

Finally, hope extinguished, he called for help in a frail and frightened voice.

“Mayday, mayday, Helios Flight 522 Athens…”

And forty-eight seconds later: “Mayday.”
“Mayday.”

Traffic, traffic. He heard only the mechanized voice of the 737. The radio was not set to the proper frequency to transmit the message. Prodromou’s mayday would only be heard in the post-crash examination of the cockpit voice recorder.

In the early days of the Malaysia 370 mystery, I thought of these episodes. After all, it was an ordinary flight—under the command of an experienced and well-regarded captain—that suddenly turned baffling.

The Boeing 777 had departed Kuala Lumpur International Airport on March 8, 2014, on an overnight trip to Beijing. There were 227 passengers and 12 crew members on board. In the cockpit, Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah, a 33-year employee of the company, was in command. He had 18,000 flight hours. As a point of reference, that’s just 1,500 hours fewer than Chesley Sullenberger had when he successfully ditched a disabled US Airways airliner into New York’s Hudson River, and Zaharie was five years younger than Sully.

Professionally speaking, First Officer Fariq Abdul Hamid was everything Zaharie was not.

Inexperienced on the Boeing 777, he was still training on the wide-body while Zaharie supervised his performance. The flight to Beijing would bring the young pilot’s total hours on the airplane to 39. Fariq had been flying for Malaysia for four years. From 2010 to 2012, he was a first officer on Boeing 737s. He was promoted to the Airbus A330, which he flew as a first officer for 15 months until he began his transition to the even bigger Boeing 777.

777 cockpit (Courtesy Team-BHP)

The moonless night was warm and dark with mostly cloudy skies when the jetliner lifted off at 12:41 a.m. on Saturday morning. Fariq was making the radio calls, so we can assume Zaharie was flying the airplane.

On board were business travelers, vacationers, and students. There were families, couples, and singles from Indonesia, Malaysia, China, Australia, America, and nine other countries; a global community common on international flights. Because Kuala Lumpur and Beijing are in the same time zone and the flight was to arrive at dawn, many travelers were probably sleeping when things started to go wrong.

Flight 370 was headed north-northwest to Beijing. Twenty minutes after takeoff, at 1:01 a.m., the plane reached its assigned altitude, 35,000 feet, and Fariq notified controllers.

Independent of what the pilots were doing, the 12-year-old Boeing 777 was relaying through satellites a routine status message with information about its current state of health. In the acronym-loving world of aviation, this data uplink is called ACARS, for Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System. Messaging can be manual if the pilots want to request or send information to the airline. The automatic status report is transmitted on a schedule set by the airline. At Malaysia, it was every 30 minutes.

Around the time the ACARS message was being sent, it appears control of the flight was transferred to the first officer because Captain Zaharie was now making the radio calls. He confirmed to air traffic control that the plane was flying at cruise altitude. “Ehhh… Seven Three Seven Zero maintaining level three five zero.”

Eleven minutes later, as the airplane neared the end of Malaysian airspace, the controller issued a last instruction to the crew in command of Flight 370, giving them the frequency to which they should tune their radio upon crossing into Vietnam’s airspace.

“Malaysian Three Seven Zero, contact Ho Chi Minh one two zero decimal niner, good night.”

“Good night Malaysian,” Zaharie said. It was 1:19. His voice was calm, according to a stress analyst who listened to the recording as part of the Malaysian probe. There was no indication of trouble.

Zaharie, 53, had been in his seat since around 11:00 p.m., ordering fuel, entering information in the onboard computers, arming systems, checking the weather en route, and discussing the flight with the cabin attendants. He had also been supervising Fariq, who, after landing in Beijing, would be checked out on the Boeing 777. That was sure to be a heady and exhilarating new assignment for the young man, as Zaharie certainly recognized, having three children of his own around the age of Fariq, who was 27.

Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah (right) had thousands of hours in the 777 cockpit. First Officer Fariq Abdul Hamid (left) was a recently promoted rookie. (Via Facebook)

The airliner was at cruise altitude, flying a pre-programmed course. There was very little difference at this point between the Boeing 777 and every other jetliner Fariq had flown.

So, in the scenario I envision on Malaysia 370, this would have been the perfect time for Zaharie to tell Fariq, “Your airplane,” leaving the triple-seven in the first officer’s hands so he could go to the bathroom.

Alone on the flight deck, Fariq must have enjoyed these moments. He was in sole command of one of the world’s largest airliners, responsible for taking his passengers to their destination.

While Zaharie was out of the cockpit, it would be Fariq’s job to tune the radio to the Ho Chi Minh air traffic control frequency. Once he established contact, he would change the transponder’s four-digit squawk code from the one used in Malaysia to one for transiting to Vietnam-controlled airspace. But instead of making that switch, the transponder stopped transmitting entirely. The question is why.

A transponder is critical for airliners. It links altitude, direction, speed, and, most significantly, identity to what otherwise would be a tiny anonymous green dot on an air traffic control screen. The transponder provides what is called a secondary return: a data-rich reply to a radar interrogation. Controllers need the transponder to keep airplanes in increasingly crowded skies from colliding. Airlines use it to track the progress of flights. Pilots depend on it for a timely warning if another plane winds up in their flight path.

After the investigation of a 2006 mid-air collision in Brazil determined that a transponder in one of the airplanes had been inexplicably set on standby mode, the Federal Aviation Administration issued a rule that on new airplanes, the warning of an inoperative transponder should be more obvious to the pilots. Airplanes produced before the 2010 rule, including 9M-MRO, the airplane that was flying as Malaysia 370, were not affected.
 

In a chamber simulating high altitudes at Arizona State University, pilots deprived of oxygen take tests to assess their cognitive skills. Pilots suffering from hypoxia can feel a false sense of competence. (ASU College of Technology)

Not all loss-of-pressure incidents end badly. The first officer on a 1996 American Trans Air flight breathed oxygen and safely landed the airplane. (Torsten Maiwald)

Fariq knew he had to get the squawk code from Ho Chi Minh—but first he had to tune the radio to that frequency. This is about the time when, I think, a rapid decompression happened near or in the cockpit. It would have made a deep and startling noise, like a clap or the sound of a champagne bottle uncorking, only much, much louder and sharper. This would have been followed by a rush of air and things swirling everywhere. A white fog would have filled the space as the drop in temperature turned the moist cabin air into mist. The first officer would have realized immediately: This is an emergency.

The denser air inside Fariq’s body would have rushed out through every orifice, an effect that can be particularly painful in the ears, as anyone who has flown with a head cold knows. His fingers, hands, and arms would have started to move spastically. Fariq would have struggled to understand this rapid change from normal to pandemonium while irretrievable seconds of intellectual capacity ticked away.

Emergency, have to get down, have to let someone know. What first? He would have reached over to the transponder to enter 7700, the four digits that will alert everyone on the ground and in the air that something has gone wrong with the plane. His fingers would still have been trembling as he clutched the small round knob on the bottom left of the device and turned it to Standby. It is not what he would have intended, but he would already have begun to lose his mental edge. In an attempt to transmit a message of distress, he would have inadvertently severed the only means air controllers had of identifying his airplane and the details of his flight.

I find it logical to assume that Zaharie visited the business class bathroom near the flight deck, which is also used by the flight crew. Airline bathrooms have a drop-down mask to provide oxygen in the case of depressurization. Imagine what it would have been like for Zaharie to see the yellow plastic cup bob down.

He had to make a choice: Try to get back to the cockpit without supplemental oxygen, or remain in the bathroom and wait for Fariq to get the airplane to a lower altitude and then rejoin him on the flight deck. I’m guessing Zaharie wasn’t confident in Fariq’s ability to handle the emergency and chose the former course of action.

Pilots at Malaysia Airlines tell me that in a rapid decompression, it would have been very difficult for Captain Zaharie to get back onto the flight deck. The captain was unable to regain command of the airplane. If he had, things might have turned out differently.

From The Crash Detectives: Investigating the World’s Most Mysterious Air Disasters by Christine Negroni, to be published on September 27 by Penguin Books, an imprint of Penguin Publishing Group, a division of Penguin Random House LLC. Copyright © 2016 by Christine Negroni.

Read more: http://www.airspacemag.com/flight-today/...BOSc1wf.99

The following is a couple of comments from the Air & Space blog that are extremely critical of the Negroni theory:

Ted Lindley • 25 days ago

Occam's Razor? Is that a joke? This has got to be the dumbest piece about MH370 I've ever read.

Maybe a hypoxic FO got "fat fingers" and hit STBY instead of 7700. Sure, okay fine. But did decompression depower the SDU? Did it shut off the ACARS and the IFE? Did decompression cause the SDU to attempt a log-on at 18:25?

Exactly 1 minute and 43 seconds elapsed between Zaharie's final radio call and the loss of the transponder. Since 9/11, every airline in the world has adopted flight deck protection protocols which require the cabin crew to barricade the flight deck door anytime it is used. You call it "Occam's Razor" and expect us to believe that in a total of 103 seconds, Zaharie made a radio call, switched to the cabin phone and requested a pee break, got the flight attendants to move the food carts and call back with an "all clear," got up and out, closed the door behind himself and at that exact moment a catastrophic decompression occurred? All in the space of 103 seconds? And that's the SIMPLE explanation?

If the captain had been locked out of the flight deck and an inexperienced FO had succumbed to hypoxia in his absence, who commanded the turns up the Malacca Strait and around the northern tip of Sumatra before commanding a 100+ degree turn to the South - the last of which occurred a full 52 minutes AFTER the alleged decompression and at a point where everyone on the flight deck who hadn't donned a mask would be dead as a doornail?

Furthermore, the plane flew exactly 7.52 hours, which happens to be the textbook endurance for the fuel/payload it departed with, meaning that at some point during the fuel burn, someone commanded a step climb of at least two thousand, and more likely four thousand, feet. Who did that? A frozen zombie FO? There is no 7.52 hours of flying time if the whole flight was conducted at FL350. Period. Book endurance is achieved at optimum altitudes with appropriately timed step-climbs. Not in a zombie plane commanding M0.84 and FL350 regardless of its weight.

Pick another subject to write about, please. Your understanding of heavy jet aviation is just plain kindergarten level.

---

Michael L. • a month ago

This doesn't explain why, for many minutes after the transponder was turned off, the airplane was able to make a series of turns to waypoints that carried it across the Malay peninsula precisely along the border of Malaysia and Thailand then northwest along the Malacca Strait, then straight south right after clearing the island of Sumatra. It also doesn't explain why the copilot's phone was detected trying to place calls as the plane flew close to Sumatra. If both pilots were incapacitated, neither the precise series of turns that had no relationship to any commercial flight plan, nor the phone calls, could have been made. The former indicates a deliberate attempt to make the plane go missing, and the latter indicates the copilot had both the ability and the desire to place a cell phone call (not something anyone on a plane usually does). The only explanation is the captain was in control and the copilot had been locked out of the cockpit. The captain's having practiced a flight on his home simulator going through the same waypoints would further support this explanation. It's hard to understand why Ms. Negroni has chosen to ignore these widely known and completely uncontested facts, which can only lead to misunderstandings and make it more difficult for the families to accept the actual findings. I'm also surprised that Air and Space would reprint her speculative story without performing a simple check for factuality and logic.  

 
Well I guess if you put such a theory out there for all to see you have to expect such negative opinions...   However as Negroni points out, in reply to Michael L, the extract is only a small part of the original:

Christine Negroni Michael L. • 15 days ago
Thanks Michael for your comment, however neither the captain practicing a flight on his simulator on the same way points nor cell phone calls from the first officer's phone are "uncontested facts". The explanations for the maneuvers of the flight after the loss of transponder and power to the SDU are fully explained in the book, which at 70,000 words allows for much more detail than the 3,000 words reprinted in Air & Space. I urge you to buy the book for the full story.

 Indeed food for thought?  However not being quite so derogatory as Ted and without the benefit of the full story, I can see some troubling holes in the Negroni hypothesis?? But then again so there is in any of up to a dozen worthy MH370 theories. And while we to continue to float around in this strange Malaysian induced disinformation bubble, can anyone see this bizarre situation changing - anyone??   

MTF...P2

[Peetwo]

In a quieter moment at ATSB Chook Shed HQ   ....but then..



Captain's log: Mike Chillit DOI Archive entry 23.09.16 -

Via MC's 7th Arc:

SIO and Reverse Drift
Posted on September 23, 2016 by Mike Chillit

If you follow @MikeChillit in whole or part on Twitter, you probably know I’ve tinkered around with drift patterns in the Southern Indian Ocean off and on. I’ve done that mostly as a reaction to the efforts of others who appear to be deliberately conducting analysis in a way that concludes Australia has been searching in the “correct location” all this time, and the reason it hasn’t found anything is because there isn’t anything to find.

Admittedly, the search for MH370 has been complicated. We don’t have much information about what may have happened, let alone what actually happened. But that should not have paralyzed the effort to find the plane. Nearly everyone agrees the “Seventh Arc” metric developed by Inmarsat from BTO exchanges between the plane and its 3-F1 satellite is probably reasonably useful. It marks a mostly north-to-south path over the South Indian Ocean south of Java that runs some 4,000 km before reaching a spot near -40° S, where most also agree the plane could not have flown beyond.

But instead of setting up to methodically search the entire 4,000 km arc that passes north, west, and a bit south of Western Australia, ATSB has persisted in searching only the most distant 1,000 km: leaving three-quarters of the Seventh Arc unsearched. Why? ATSB has argued at times it is because “all of those who know anything about anything say that’s the only place on the Arc MH370 could be”. But those people “who know everything there is to know” never stand up and agree. They remain nameless, faceless ghosts: figments of Australia’s now badly broken image and imagination. In essence, Australia has stated time and time again that if the plane is farther north, it needs to get up and drift down to the search area so Fugro can find it. This doesn’t just border on the absurd, it is certifiable.

So, after trying hard to avoid investing the personal time and effort into putting together a proper picture of drift patterns in SIO, I have now reversed course and have done just that. It is / was a huge task. A lot of drift data is involved, but it also requires another major consideration for which I have yet to find much data: wind speed and direction across SIO between the equator and -40° S. I have estimates for the northwest portion of the area that appear to be quite adequate, but I still have nothing for the southeast (west of Australia), or for the southwest along the South African coast. So, the graphics I present below will change when I obtain that information. I know in general terms what it will look like. Those who hope it will show that drift moves from SE Australia to the Mascarene Island areas will be disappointed. It just doesn’t. Winds along the Western Australian coast flow mostly to the northeast and north. They mostly begin over the Circumpolar Current south of -40° S where a large chunk breaks off and curves up the WA coastline. A fair amount of water does the same thing, but quickly wraps back to the SW and recycles.

How Drift Moves West of Australia
At a minimum, those Western Australia northbound winds move debris toward Java, not the Mascarenes. Those winds begin falling apart between Geraldton and Exmouth where they catch westbound winds from Timor Sea. A small amount of debris re-curves to the SW, and some curves up to the NW and the Mascarenes, but it is nothing like the drift already in that portion of the Indian Ocean.

It is indeed possible for a few things to drift from SW Australia to Pemba Island in the NW, and beyond, but it is not common. It is not the default location drift moves toward in that part of the ocean. So, finding a flaperon on Reunion Island COULD be a result of drift from the Perth area in relatively rare circumstances, but no one would expect an entire tranche of debris from the Perth area to end up all the way up to Madagascar and eventually East Africa. That kind of debris relocation / accumulation can only come from somewhere west of its most southerly location: currently southern Madagascar, Reunion Island, and Rodrigues Island. Moreover, the debris that has not been stopped at those Island locations has drifted up around the north end of Madagascar, then south via the Mozambique Channel, and / or further north yet to Pemba Island and beyond.

That is simply how it works out there and no one is going to put the remains of MH370 SW of Perth with bad drift modelling and convoluted claims. The plane is wherever it is, and that is certainly not where Australia has camped out for the better part of three long years. Everyone is tired of that horrible close-to-the-vest claim. If anyone with credentials really thinks the plane is where the search is, they need to stand up and take questions. They need to stop hiding behind the press officer in Canberra.

The following chart was constructed from nearly 600,000 NOAA drift records. That is one-quarter of the 2.4 million records for the 35 year period between the early 1980s and early 2016. That is about 4 records per drifter per day for as long as each drifter was functional: several years in most instances. Only the midnight UTC record was retained and used for analysis purposes.

The dataset is formally known as “envids spatial temporal” data. Each record has twelve data elements. Those of primary interest for drift analysis purposes were “ve” (velocity east), “vn” (velocity north), and “speed”. They were used to obtain ‘heading’ or ‘bearing’.

GPS coordinates, also in each record, were used to verify sampled outcomes. All ‘resultant’ data were dropped into a 1° by 1° matrix for final analysis. Summary metrics were developed for drift direction and other factors. The effects of small local currents are necessarily included in the analysis at the 1° by 1° level, and can be seen in vector fluctuations. Those effects could be further enhanced by reducing matrix size to 0.5° by 0.5°, but that level of precision does not appear to be necessary. Indeed, the analysis does not leave ambiguity about how drift works in the South Indian Ocean.

As the analysis progressed, currents alone tend to move fairly uniformly from the northeast (Timor Sea area) to the southwest (tip of South Africa). There is plenty of evidence to support that proposition, not the least of which is that it is known that a large volume of water pushes into the South Indian Ocean from the Pacific Ocean via Timor Sea and Banda Sea; it has to go somewhere. It tends to move toward South Africa and from there into the South Atlantic and some into the Circumpolar Current.

If one were to attempt to reverse drift at that first level of analysis (water current flow), it would point to Sumatra and Java as the likely origin of MH370 debris. But that would completely ignore the significant contributions from wind, which tends to move at about 14 knots to the northwest.

When wind and current vectors were combined, the result is as you see it below. Important to note it is consistent with most independent drift modeling that has emerged in the past year of so from Geomar and others. NOAA’s Rick Lumpkin also did an informal reverse drift model for the author, and it was entirely consistent with these results.



This is the reverse drift graphic result from about 600,000 drifter records over a period of about 35 years. It includes some of the effects of wind, but will be refined as more precise wind data become available. The chart is intended to make it possible to follow the vectors to find the likely starting point. For example, from Reunion Island the likely starting point on the Seventh Arc is a short distance northeast of Zenith Plateau.

Numerous analyses lately have concluded that the area between Batavia Seamount and Zenith Plateau appears to be the most likely start point for Reunion Island debris. There is no known way to pinpoint the origin more precisely.



This informal chart was prepared by NOAA’s Dr. Rick Lumpkin at the author’s request in February 2016. It’s purpose was to use NOAA drifter data to approximate the location of MH370 drift six months after the crash. The reverse drift path is clearly to the northeast of Reunion Island, and appears headed directly for Sunda Strait.

The graphic directly above prepared by Rick Lumpkin does not include wind vector data. If it did, it would move directly toward Timor Sea and Exmouth, Australia.

It is the author’s understanding that yet another drift model is due to be released soon by a Western Australia professor who has prepared several analyses. Almost all, so far, have been at odds with those prepared by Geomar and others.

  P2 - sorry Mike I just discovered that choc frogs can't be beamed up...
You'll just have to wait on the snail mail..

MTF...P2

[Peetwo]

Captain's log: DOI Archive entry 27.09.16 

Blaine & the inquisitors of the 7th Arc -

Via the Guardian an excellent expose of Blaine Gibson's relentless search for the truth and location of MH370:

The man on a solo mission to find the wreckage of flight MH370

Blaine Alan Gibson is a lawyer and amateur ‘adventurer’ who is on a self-funded quest to trace the Malaysia Airlines plane that vanished in 2014
       
[/url] Blaine Alain Gibson displays a piece of debris found on Nosy Boraha island, Madagascar, that could be from the missing plane. Photograph: EPA

Elle Hunt

@mlle_elle

Monday 26 September 2016 22.45 AEST Last modified on Tuesday 27 September 2016 09.21 AEST

Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 disappeared on 8 March 2014, mid-flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing with 239 people onboard. Two and a half years later, despite the multi-million-dollar investment and efforts of three countries, the plane has yet to be found.
There have been traces. Two pieces of aircraft debris found washed up on remote beaches of the Indian Ocean have been confirmed as being from MH370, with the latest – an outboard flap from Pemba Island – discovered only this month. Four more pieces are almost certain to be from the lost plane.

Earlier this month, the Malaysian transport minister, Datuk Seri Liow Tiong Lai, said that 22 potential pieces of aircraft debris had been found so far, along the coastlines of South Africa, Mozambique, Mauritius and Tanzania. Fourteen of these fragments have been found by one man, Blaine Alan Gibson, the result of an independent, self-funded investigation he began 18 months ago. Several are under investigation or awaiting pickup by authorities, but one – a horizontal stabiliser, stencilled with the words “NO STEP”, which Gibson found on a sandbank in Mozambique in late February – is almost certainly from MH370.

Gibson is most often described as a Seattle-based lawyer. He prefers “adventurer”. He can speak six languages, and has said it is his dream to go to every country in the world. Mozambique, where he was technically on holiday, was number 177 on the list. “I’ve stopped at that because I’m trying to find the plane,” he says. “There are other places I want to go, but the plane isn’t there.”

Wearing hiking boots, head-to-toe khaki tones and a slouch hat – a new acquisition – atop a thatch of hair, he dresses as if he is courting comparisons with Indiana Jones (a Google search reveals that the strategy has worked).
   

Volunteers gather debris found on Réunion island, in August 2015. Photograph: Arnaud Andrieu/EPA

The look, topped off with a badge reading “The search for MH370: Keep it on”, is striking when we meet in a bookshop-cum-cafe in an inner-city Sydney suburb, but Gibson has been living out of his suitcase for a while. He passed his bar exams in 1993, but has rarely practised (his father, Phil S Gibson, served as chief justice of the California supreme court from 1940 to 1964). It’s been decades, in fact, since his life has conformed to a standard nine-to-five.

Now in his late 50s, he is not married. He does not have children. He has an apartment in Seattle, but no car any more. “Everything I spend is on travel, and I’ve always liked the travel to have a purpose.” In the past, that has meant being present for significant political or historical events – he was in Red Square “when the red flag came down” on the last day of the Soviet Union. Or it can be “to solve some mystery”, such as his trips to Guatemala and Belize, to uncover the fate of the Mayan civilisation, or Siberia, to learn about the Tunguska meteorite, thought to have created a blast as powerful as 1,000 Hiroshimas in 1908.

MH370 is his latest mission and, he says, his most successful. “This one is special because the others have been for history and interest, and this one is for the families, because it means so much to them to get some traces of answers.”

When the plane disappeared, he was on an infrequent trip back to the US, tasked with selling the family home in California that – with his parents both gone, and his constant globetrotting – had become a burden. “I sat glued to the TV more than I normally would because I had to be there to sign documents, do inspections, sort through all my family memories.”
   
Plane debris from MH370 found in South Africa. Photograph: EPA

Gibson spent much of the next year in Laos, helping friends set up a karaoke bar, but maintained an active interest in the search in discussion groups on Facebook. One such group, MH370 In Search of the Truth, now has more than 3,600 active members; Gibson was one of the first.

He flew to Kuala Lumpur for the public service marking the first anniversary of the plane’s disappearance, and was moved by a “heart-rending” speech given by Grace Subathirai Nathan, whose mother was on the plane and who continues to speak on behalf of the families of missing passengers.

“That made me think this is something that maybe I can do – to do what I love doing anyhow, travel and solving mysteries, but also have a reason for it.” He is now friends with Nathan, and many other MH370 families.

First, he flew to Myanmar and Cambodia, not far from Laos, to explore the possibility that the plane had flown north. Then he interviewed local people in the Maldives who had reported seeing a jet plane the morning MH370 disappeared (their accounts contradicted satellite data and were set aside). In July 2015, a six-foot flaperon wing was found on Réunion island, east of Madagascar – and Gibson’s search area was narrowed down.
Since finding the horizontal stabiliser panel in February, he seems to have tracked down potential pieces of MH370 faster than investigators can assess them, or even pick them up – he says six items have been awaiting collection in Madagascar by Malaysian authorities for more than three months.

He has come to Sydney from Canberra, where he handed six further fragments found in Madagascar over to Australian investigators for analysis. Two apparently showed signs of charring, raising the possibility there was a fire onboard the plane before it crashed. (Two weeks later, the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) found the dark colouration was not caused by exposure or fire, but did not rule out a possible link to MH370.)
 
   

An Australian investigators’ map showing the Indian Ocean search area in 2015.

Even allowing for misses, Gibson’s successes have been remarkable, especially given his lack of professional expertise and resources. He has no prior aviation experience, although he says he is learning. “I know now what pieces of a plane look like. I’ve probably held in my hands more pieces of Malaysia 370 since it crashed than anyone alive.”

His methods are simple: he looks on beaches, he puts the word out with locals, he checks shacks, because large pieces of metal are valuable construction materials. It’s slow and labour-intensive in comparison with the initial search effort in March 2014, two weeks after the plane disappeared, when 22 military aircraft and 19 ships from eight countries covered areas of more than 4.6m sq km.

Although Malaysia holds overall responsibility for the accident investigation, the ATSB has led the underwater search since April 2014. When Gibson finds debris, he notifies Australian and Malaysian authorities, although it is Malaysia’s responsibility to retrieve potential evidence.

New phase of search proposed involves using replicas of a discovered Malaysia Airlines flaperon, placing it in the ocean and monitoring drift

The official search of a 120,000 sq km arc of ocean, determined from satellite data and drift modelling as the most likely site of the wreck, is expected to be completed in December. With less than 10,000 sq km to go, it seems increasingly likely it will be unsuccessful. But Gibson rejects the idea that he is doing a better job than the ATSB.

“They’re out there in 20-metre waves, miserable, cold, trying to find something 6,000-metres deep. I’m walking along a beach picking things up after the ocean has done its work,” he says. “It’s not fair to compare the two of us ... and what they have the possibility of finding, which is the black boxes – I mean, that’s the holy grail.”

In early September, he and relatives of the missing passengers met the crew of the Fugro Equator, one of the search vessels, in port in Fremantle, Western Australia. “There were choked-back emotions and tears from these tough guys out on the boat,” says Gibson.

“They really care, they’re really dedicated, and I hate to see the media trash them, trash the ATSB ... they really want to find this plane.” For the ATSB’s part, a spokesman says Gibson’s efforts have reinvigorated public interest in the search, and led to more members of the public coming forward with items.

Gibson is less effusive about the Malaysian authorities, who he has found to be slow to retrieve potential evidence. But “more frustrating” are people, particularly journalists, who cherrypick evidence to suit their “pet theories” – of which there are plenty. “Sometimes it seems to me that I’m the only person who doesn’t know where the plane is and what happened to it,” he says.

He singles out an Australian primetime current affairs programme that claimed in its “special investigation” that the plane’s fuselage was intact under water, even though he believes he has found debris from the cabin interior. “I was holding pieces – you’ve seen the pictures. I’m not under 600 atmospheres of pressure, it’s not dark, I’m breathing normally. I wasn’t underwater,” he says.
   

Gibson, second from left, with relatives of passengers on MH370 including Grace Subathirai Nathan, second from right, after a meeting in Canberra, Australia. Photograph: Mark Graham/AFP/Getty Images

Worse still, he says, are [url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/01/flight-mh370-was-flown-into-water-says-crash-expert]theories implicating the captain of MH370, Zaharie Ahmad Shah. New York magazine reported in July that a route plotted on his home flight simulator “closely matched” that taken by the plane. The story was authored by Jeff Wise, a high-profile but controversial commentator on the search for MH370 who has posited a number of theories, including that it was hijacked and flown to Kazakhstan on Vladimir Putin’s instruction. But, says Gibson, even if it wasn’t a stretch to interpret a simulated route as evidence of planning, to say the two routes “closely matched” is just not true.

The evidence thus far points to a high-speed impact that shattered the plane, including the main cabin – inconsistent with a controlled glide by a suicidal pilot.

“There is nothing in the background of this pilot to indicate that he would want to end his life or everybody else’s – nothing,” he says. “The only evidence against him is the absence of any other explanation. That’s not enough.”

Gibson says he has been “trolled, attacked and slandered” by an “online army of armchair assassins”, who have accused him of having reported planted debris, even planting it himself. A cyber-attack on The Hunt for MH370 website, after it published his report on the possible sighting in the Maldives, seemed professional, he says, although he does not know if his detractors are paid to discredit him, or “just mean people”.

He insists that he is driven only by the desire to find out what happened to the plane. “The problem with Malaysia 370 is there are too many theories and not enough evidence. I can tell you what we do know. The plane crashed in the Indian Ocean, somewhere south of the equator and north of 39 degrees south [latitude] – probably more likely north of 34 degrees south.

“It did not crash in the Gulf of Thailand. It did not crash in the Bay of Bengal. It is not buried in the sand of Kazakhstan. It is not south of 40 degrees, because then debris would have gone to Australia and Tasmania – and it wasn’t abducted by aliens.” He says it is possible that there was an emergency that crew members tried and failed to respond to. It is also possible that the plane was hijacked.

There is no neat narrative, which, he accepts, people find difficult. But speculation at least fuels the search.

“As long as the interest remains in solving this mystery, I am content, because we need the search on until we do [solve it],” says Gibson. “What bothers me are the easy answers that cause us to say: ‘Mystery solved, sweep it under the rug for ever, pin it on the pilot.’ I don’t like the easy answers.”

Gibson is hopeful the search will continue, in some form, beyond December. His investigation continues: “I’m hooked now.” However, he believes governments, airlines and manufacturers – even those not directly linked – should play their part.

“We have to solve this mystery. It’s not just for the families, it’s for the flying public, who need to be sure what happened never happens again. We need to know that when we get on a plane, yeah, it may crash, things happen. But it’s not going to just disappear.”

MTF...P2

[Peetwo]

Captain's Log 21.10.16: Latest from the MH370 'he said, she said'; my theory trumps your theory bollocks -   

First from PT yesterday:

Researcher suggests another brief but fiery cause for MH370's disappearance
Ben SandilandsOct 20, 2016
We know MH370 was suddenly taken off course. This theory doesn't involve rogue pilots, but bad luck and several design flaws

...There are of course major problems with MH370 hypotheticals, in that if the key assumptions are wrong, they couldn’t explain the flight’s disappearance. Mr Gilbert’s paper however plausible, wouldn’t correctly identify the cause if the pilots weren’t in fact overpowered by the unforeseen events he describes.

[/url]
But this paper is thoroughly researched. It can be [url=https://www.dropbox.com/s/n5k3s43xu4qzfyx/MH370%20Research%20V3.2.pdf?dl=0]downloaded here, at a new link. It should be read by those who have not made up their minds as to the cause of the loss, and only seek the company of those supporting a rogue pilot, or an elaborate conspiracy involving a decoy ‘double’, or other nonsensical constructs. Mr Gilbert also credits two high profile MH370 researchers, John Cox, and a former 777 check captain and current A330 pilot who just calls himself ‘Andrew’ but is well known for his contributions elsewhere...

Next from that man in the Oz today:

Little credence for MH370 latest
12:00amEAN HIGGINS
Christine Negroni’s new book, The Crash Detectives, has come up against some pointed questioning from experts.

It is an early publishing success and has piqued interest by adding new elements to the greatest aviation mystery of the 21st century: what happened on board Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.

But US writer Christine Negroni’s new book, The Crash Detectives, has come up against some pointed questioning from aviation experts.

Observers have expressed doubts about her theory that the co-pilot, made light-headed by inadequate oxygen after a rapid decompression event, flew the aircraft for at least another hour but in a silly way.

MH370 disappeared on a scheduled flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing on March 8, 2014, with 12 crew and 227 passengers on board.

About 40 minutes into the flight, the radar transponder was turned off, radio communications ceased and the Boeing 777 turned around to fly back over the Malaysia-Thailand border, then headed northwest over the Andaman Sea.

It then turned south and automatic electronic satellite “handshakes” show it flew a long track to finish up in the southern Indian Ocean.

The most popular theory is that Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah hijacked his own aircraft and flew it in a fashion aimed at causing it to disappear in a remote area of deep ocean.
In the MH370 section of her book, Negroni comes up with a new theory: that when Zaharie left the cockpit for a “biological break”, the young first officer Fariq Abdul Hamid was at the controls when the aircraft suffered rapid decompression.

Decompression at high altitudes subjects passengers and crew to lack of oxygen — a condition known as hypoxia — which leads to a rapid loss in mental capacity.

Pilots are trained to deploy full-face oxygen masks and have an ample supply to fly the aircraft to lower altitudes where passengers and crew can breathe.

But in her theory, Negroni writes, “any number of problems may have prevented Fariq from getting enough oxygen”.

“Something wrong with the mask, the oxygen supply, or the connection between the two could explain why he might still be unable to think clearly.”

In his befuddled state, Negroni speculates, Fariq did not descend or send out a distress call but headed back towards Penang, then northwest past Langkawi, which has a longer runway, before making the final turn south, having realised he had gone too far north.
Negroni told The Australian “early sales are fantastic”, with The Crash Detectives selling in the top 100 to 1000 on Amazon.com.

But aviation experts find Negroni’s scenario of a pilot only partially affected by hypoxia flying for a considerable period improbable because rapid decompression at cruising altitude would lead him to pass out within minutes and die not long after that.

Alternatively, had Fariq got his oxygen mask on, he quickly would have regained full awareness and capacity to follow standard procedure.

“Malaysia Airlines’ flight crew are well-trained professional pilots,” Australian Federation of Air Pilots president David Booth told The Australian.

“The actions in the event of a decompression are to don oxygen, quickly troubleshoot the pressurisation system and then immediately commence an emergency descent.”

Former US airline captain turned air crash investigator John Cox said the idea that Fariq or any pilot affected by hypoxia could have flown the aircraft long enough to make a series of course corrections, albeit irrational ones, was unlikely.

“If there were a decompression, it is unlikely anyone would remain conscious for over an hour,” he said.

Another veteran international air crash investigator who asked not to be named said of Negroni’s theory: “It sounds to me like another guess that has just marginally enough of a theoretical possibility that non-investigation people can buy into it.”

MTF...P2

[Peetwo]

Captain's Log 24.10.16: Last Tango in the SIO??

Quote from Tango (via PT) :

Tango
October 24, 2016 at 1:34 am

The problem continue to be that the latest theory is at best implausible and most likely impossible.

A blown out window is going to cause major aerodynamic distress, its not going to fly right or nearly as long (assuming the rest keeps working).

Then a series of well coordinated turns.

That also assumes the damage does not cause a supposedly preset auto pilot to disengage, do absolutely finarky things (melting devices making inputs) and erratic ops all their own.

I would call this silly, we can come up with an endless number of possibilities that realistically are no more than techno thriller stuff that is not going to happen.

Frankly I don’t expect anyone to come up with the answer of where it is, there are too many variables in the known data to be accurate.

Accurate does not mean generally correct, but generally is a huge area.

Past time and money to just let this one rest.

Next via FlightGlobal:

OPINION: Should the search for missing MH370 be extended?

• 21 October, 2016
  
• BY: Flight International
  

The shock disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 in March 2014 is one of the most keenly ­debated and puzzling aviation mysteries of our time.

That the Boeing 777-200ER met a watery end cannot be disputed, with a trio of composite structures washed up on Mauritius, Reunion and Tanzania since last year already confirmed as being parts of the lost widebody, and additional finds being inspected by experts.

While these discoveries undermine the more outlandish conspiracy theories, like abduction, decompression and fire, we remain none the wiser about what really led to the twinjet reversing course away from Beijing in the hours of darkness. Only finding the aircraft’s main wreckage could possibly provide the answers.

If a schedule agreed by the Australian, Chinese and Malaysian search authorities earlier this year holds firm – and no new evidence emerges – the seabed search for MH370 will end in December, after combing an area totalling 120,000km² (46,300 mile²). But would it be right to end this painstaking activity?

According to the revised calculations of one 777 ­captain, the bulk of the wreckage – and perhaps the 239 people lost with it – could be situated just outside the limit of the current search area, and a crowdfunding campaign could be proposed to explore this region.

It would be a fresh tragedy if a search ended without studying such a theory. Answers must be found.

MTF...P2

[Peetwo]

Captain's Log 02.11.16: Via ABC online

MH370: Malaysia Airlines to hand over top secret records to Australian families suing for compensation

Exclusive by Peter Lloyd

Updated about 2 hours ago Wed 2 Nov 2016, 6:16am

Photo: Malaysia Airlines Berhad has long legally distanced itself from the MH brand. (Wikimedia: Ercan Karakas, file)

After refusing for more than year to provide any corporate records to assist compensation claim against it, Malaysia Airlines has suddenly changed course and agreed to hand over almost all of the documents it has been so desperate to keep secret.

Key points:

• Allianz reportedly offering $250,000 capped payments for each Australian victim
  
• Documents released include crew medical certificates, operational notes, procedures, flight plan
  
• Allianz is nearly all that is legally left of MH brand since the entity now flying it claims no legal obligation
  

The surprise development emerged during a Federal Court Directions Hearing in Sydney on Tuesday in a case involving the adult children of four MH370 passengers — Rod and Mary Burrows, and Bob and Cathy Lawton.

It is thought to be the most advanced of all court actions against Malaysia Airlines and the lead insurer, global aviation insurance heavyweight Allianz.

The agreement came as a total shock to the families' lawyer, aviation specialist John Dawson.

It is the realisation of a wish list he has been hounding the airline for more than a year to produce — the families hope the documents will assist and even speed up their claims for damages well beyond the offer that is on the table.

Read the leaked documents here.

The ABC understands Allianz is offering payments capped at $250,000 for each Australian victim.

Payments of $50,000 per passenger were made more than a year ago in line with Montreal Treaty, which sets out the broad obligations of airlines and insurers, but the relatives are setting their sights far higher, hoping the document trove promised by the carrier may contain evidence of incompetency and failures that further their cause.
For that reason alone, the potential significance of the changed attitude to releasing documents is not fully understood.

Allianz Australia spokesman Nicholas Schofield would say only this:

"AGCS can confirm its position as lead reinsurer for the aviation hull and liability coverage.

"The loss of flight MH370 is clearly an exceptional event but, as with all claims, we cannot comment on the details of this case, particularly in relation to matters that are before the courts."

The documents include:

• The most recent medical certificate held by each member of the flight crew, including both cockpit crew and cabin crew;
  
• The most recent pilots licence held by the crew;
  
• Any operational notes logs or records held by the airline in relation to the flight;
  
• Procedures for carrying dangerous goods;
  
• Procedures for loss of radio contact, flying over oceans, and what to do in the event of hijacking;
  
• The operations manual for the plane, including flight deck security; and
  
• The flight plan lodged by the captain with air traffic control.
  

For any other aircraft it is a mundane list — but when its MH370, anything and everything that sheds new light, no mater how dim, is welcome news.

Allianz almost all legally left of the MH brand

For the families, it will be the first real chance to peer inside the now defunct Malaysia Airlines business.

The compensation case is, in any case, a proxy that names the airline for culpability but in reality chases the insurer Allianz for the money, as it carries the hull and liability.
In the arcane world of aviation law, Malaysia Airlines received a massive windfall from the tragedy.


Photo: Experts said a safety audit should have grounded all wide-bodied jets in the Malaysia Airlines fleet. (Reuters: Kim Kyung-Hoon, file)

It has already been paid hundreds of millions for the loss of the Boeing flying the MH370 route and the MH17 Airbus that was blown from the sky over Ukraine months later.

Allianz is almost all that is legally left of the carrier — the entity flying the MH brand now by the same name, Malaysia Airlines Berhad, is a legal phoenix that insists has no legal obligations to the relatives.

An act of parliament in 2015 engineered all that, and it remains to be seen whether Malaysia's judicial system allows the act to stand, or instead cuts down what lawyers and relatives decry as a sham legal fiction manufactured by the Malaysian Government to try to shield the carrier.

It is unclear whether the documents promised to the lawyers will get a public airing — that would occur only if and when the case reaches the trial stage.

The next directions hearing in the case is not scheduled until next March, so one small victory in process is no real guarantee of success in the compensation battle.

Swings and roundabouts for family members

The maintenance log books of the Boeing 777 and medical and personnel records of the captain and co-pilot will be exposed to the lawyers.

The airline has also acknowledged for the first time that it will have to deal with compensation claims from the families of those aboard the missing plane.

"I don't sleep a lot", says Karla McMaster, 29, who along with a number of family members of MH370 victims, now suffers with post-traumatic shock.

That condition is also part of the claim against the carrier that informed next of kin that their loved ones were dead by SMS.

It is an unusual move to claim for psychological injuries amongst the surviving relatives, but not without precedent — normally airlines and their insurers pay only for bodily injury to passengers.

But Ms McMaster is worried it could take another year of stonewall talks before a trial could take place.

To her mind, justice is still being delayed and denied.

"I can't remember the last time they offered me any support," she says.

MTF...P2

[Peetwo]

Captain's Log 15.11.16: Catching up...

Mike Chillit disappointment -

Off MC's 7th Arc blog 5 days ago:

MH370: How To Say It?
Posted on November 10, 2016 by Mike Chillit

A few weeks ago, I finally reached the point where I was willing to fund a very limited search of the Batavia / Zenith areas for MH370; on my own without help from anyone else. The advantages were that it would have been quick and simple; no one hovering over my shoulder to second-guess and distract. My effort would go straight to the area of highest probability based on an enormous amount of research and attempt to confirm a debris field. Then, my reasoning went, if that proved successful, it would be turned over to Malaysia or others to complete the task.

I had lined up a great company with decades of experience, and previous successes in that same area (HMAS Sydney). They know that ocean as well as anyone; better than most.

But it was not to be. When I set about confirming the exact coordinates of the 7th Arc, I discovered that it is not stable. The BTO ping ring data it is built on is highly variable. Even worse, Inmarsat has only given us a small “calibration” sample of BTO bias data values that were taken from the tarmac half an hour prior to the plane’s final flight. That raises the very real prospect that in-flight BTO data is not at all similar; that variability is even more disparate at altitude. And, unfortunately, neither Inmarsat nor ATSB will provide the actual BTO bias data during the flight. What are they hiding? Who knows. Hopefully there will eventually be criminal probes of several actors who have mostly impeded all efforts to conduct a competent professional search.

So it is the extraordinary variability in BTO data that tells me there is no practical way to go in with a less-than-5-million exploration. Anything that is done, if it is done correctly, will be expensive. Not as expensive as Australia reports it has been, but a lot more than $5 million. I currently estimate that the minimum search area will have to cover 19,000 square kilometers. And by the time the plane is located, the area scanned could be close to 50,000 or 60,000 square kilometers. There are ways of reducing coverage without substantially harming confidence in results, but is it a risk we want to take when we don’t really know how variable BTO data is at altitude?

In any event, even with a team of experienced and highly competent salvage experts and oceanographers, the total expense may be $50 million or more and that is not something I can do on my own. So I have reluctantly thanked those who worked with me to come up with a cost effective approach, and I have to now set this effort aside until a responsible alternative effort comes along.

I admit that I am deeply angry with Australia. From my point of view, it has mounted the most incompetent effort known to man based on the most primitive “faith” in a metric that has never been used before. There are 4,000 km of 7th Arc between Java and -40°S. All of it was equally likely when the underwater phase began in October 2014. But when the flaperon washed ashore in July 2015, its almost certain original location shifted to the greater Exmouth / Geraldton areas. That is probably where it is. That is not a street-corner prophet’s prediction. It is based on an enormous amount of data and analysis by multiple parties in multiple nations.

But instead of accepting the changing likelihood of the plane’s location, Australia has bitterly and stupidly clung to its now thoroughly disgraced “Penguinville” endpoint.
In any event, I cannot continue to beat my head against a wall in the hope Australia will finally see the light and go home. It has become little more than a squatter: camped out in the single most unlikely location on the planet, hoping everyone will go home and leave it to eventually claim, “we came, we tried, alas, it is not here”.

And so, regrettably, I am suspending my efforts to monitor the effort to find the plane.
I have vague hopes that the new President of the United States will see the importance of finding the aircraft… not just to put it to rest for tortured families… but to know once and for all if it was a terror attack, a malfunction, risky cargo, or something else.

I have previously published many maps of the proposed Phase II search area. Here is another. The parallelogram is the required search area for a single possible terminal area. A competent search will move that box along about a 600 km segment of the 7th Arc in the Batavia / Zenith areas until crews locate the debris field. They could get lucky and find it quickly, but let’s face it, the data we have to work with is beyond rustic. We should not put much faith in luck. We need to be patient and determined, and we need to continue to reassess the plane’s likely terminal location. No more primping, scrimping, or pimping.

Very disappointing for MC after all that effort
But then this AM, along with the Super moon, a chink of light came beaming across the Pacific ocean, across our Great Divide, over Uluru and down into the great depths of the IO, at around about the Zenith plateau -



Following MC's suggestion to contact him, this was his reply to my 'please explain' query:

..Still working on details myself, Pain. I did a slow burn for days after giving up. Just decided I know when we can start, it is not very expensive, let’s give it a try. The company is very reputable, and I believe if we beat the bushes a little, others will step out an join the effort. Money should not be much of a problem. And I may try to design it to accommodate a separate vessel for NOK. Not sure yet...

Hat's off to MC, he may yet not get it off the ground and on the water but damn he will give it a good shake. So Mike message from PAIN - GO YOU GOOD THING!

MTF...P2

[Peetwo]

Captain's Log 20.11.16: MH370 theory overload -

Update to Gilbert's theory via masterherald.com:

Flight MH370 Pilot Turns from Being an Alleged Hijacker or a Suicide Case into a Hero in New Theory





masterherald.com - It has been previously reported by the authorities that Malaysian pilot Zaharie Ahmad Shah was once suspected of plotting the disappearance of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370 because his flight sim...

Then from 'Maldives Finest' - enough already...

MH370 Facts.




maldivesfinest.com - Enough Of MH370 Conspiracy Theories? These Are The Facts You Cant Deny. Not long after MH370 Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah was speculated in relation to terrorism the new theory suggests possible hero...

..Enough Of MH370 Conspiracy Theories? These Are The Facts You Cant Deny.
Not long after MH370 Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah was speculated in relation to terrorism the new theory suggests possible heroism to prevent another 9/11 style attack. The stories are going from one extreme to another, without facts, and birth of new conspiracy theories seem far from over. In a climate like this, it may be good to recall some key facts and brainstorm a little bit to eliminate some of those conspiracy theories.

1. MH370 changed course and came back near Malaysia. There are conflicting reports about the exact location, but all indicates it came back near Malaysia.

2. Some mobile phones of the crew were turned on, the ping was picked up by more than one cell tower in Malaysia.

3. There has been no proof of any bit that suggests possible terrorism involving captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah or the co-pilot Fariq Abdul Hamid.

Now let’s go a little deeper into these facts in a way that makes most sense if not all.

The flight simulator found at captain Shah’s apartment did not reveal anything suspicious for an open minded person. If he wanted a simulator to practice a terror plot he would not need 4 screens for that, just 1 would have been enough. And that also could be have been trashed out after such a training. To me the simulator suggests only one thing – he was passionate about flying.

The cellphones of crew pinged to the cell towers, if there was a terrorist plot by the crew the phones would most probably be turned off. While the passengers are asked to turn off cell phones in flights there are people who fly frequently but never turn phone off.

The fact that MH370 turned back towards Malaysia is an important fact. You can come up with possible terrorism or heroism theories but the most relevant would be that it was an attempt to land at an airport off land. To commit terrorism or heroism there other options than turning back and coming near Malaysia, such options sound more effective towards achieving objective than coming back to the vicinity of Malaysia.

DOI archive entry 20.11.16: Finally another DOI entry from via SMD...

MH370: 22 pieces of debris at play in investigation | IOL




iol.co.za - Kuala Lumpur - A Malaysian official said on Friday that 22 pieces of debris have been found so far along coasts off South Africa, Mozambique, Mauritius and Tanzania - and two have been confirmed, w...

...Kuala Lumpur - A Malaysian official said on Friday that 22 pieces of debris have been found so far along coasts off South Africa, Mozambique, Mauritius and Tanzania - and two have been confirmed, while another four are "almost certain", to be part of the MH370 aircraft.

Malaysia's Transport Minister Liow Tiong Lai made the remarks a day after a piece of debris found on the island of Pemba, off the coast of Tanzania in June this year was confirmed to be an inboard section of the outboard flap on Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.

According to Malaysia's state news agency Bernama, Liow said Thursday's conclusion, along with the confirmation of the plane's flaperon, found on Reunion Island in July last year, could help investigators unravel how the incident had actually happened to the missing aircraft.

Apart from the two confirmed and the four pieces with high possibility, Liow said the rest were hard to determine because there were no serial number nor any other details on them.

According to a summary report posted online by the Malaysian government in August, more than a dozen items of the discovered pieces are "under evaluation."
Quoting the Australian Transport Safety Bureau, Liow added the drifting pattern of the debris showed that the search operation was within the right area. To date, the search for the missing aircraft has covered more than 110,000 square kilometers in the southern Indian Ocean, off Australia's west coast.

The government of Malaysia, Australia and China jointly announced in July that the search operation would be suspended upon completion of the current search area, but promised to resume search should new evidence emerge.

Xinhua

MTF...P2

[Peetwo]

Has Chillit found the lost arc??

Via MC's 7th? Arc :

Pinpointing the Search Arc
Posted on November 22, 2016 by Mike Chillit

In many ways, this should have been the first article I ever posted here. It goes without saying that we will not find the plane if we fail to look in the right place. And the only places we have looked or seriously considered so far are places that intersect the so-called “7th Arc”. But that Arc, first proposed by Inmarsat and variously updated by Australia’s CSIRO and others is at least 100 kilometers too far southeast. That means no part of the Arc has been searched as of today. None.

In this article I will go through the steps required to check the validity or lack thereof of the Seventh Arc, which I will refer to simply as “The Arc” in the future. Doesn’t hurt anything to continue calling it the 7th Arc, but that is another wrinkle: the 7th Arc does not exist. The 6th Arc is the closest we can reliably get to what Inmarsat dubbed the Seventh Arc. What we call it isn’t a big deal, but we still have to go to it to find the plane. It will not come to us no matter how hard we hope.

The sixth ping and the seventh ping occurred 8 minutes apart. The plane was either out of fuel, or it was in the water shortly after the 6th ping. We simply have to search enough seafloor width to eliminate the possibility we missed a few kilometers because the plane was still in the air by the time the abbreviated pings were picked up at 00:19. That has always been one of our challenges.

It is my belief now that the plane was indeed in the water prior to the seventh ping. I do not care how it got there. For me, that is the only explanation for a thoroughly garbled seventh ping. So yes, I suspect it was piloted to the end, but whether it was or wasn’t isn’t very important, either. We won’t know for sure until we find it.

First: Correcting Inmarsat’s BTO Bias

We begin by examining the BTO pings Inmarsat used to “calibrate” the BTO value. They were published as Table 3 in an article by Chris Ashton, et. al in the September issue of Journal of Navigation (JON).

Here is a copy of the part we want, taken from one of my worksheets. There are 17 BTO values Inmarsat selected to use for calibration purposes. They were not selected randomly. They were hand picked, which itself is problematic. They were all transmitted from the tarmac prior to the plane’s departure. That time frame was the only acknowledged criterion.



Rows 26 through 34 present my own central tendency calculations. While they are not a truly random sample, I nevertheless use a sample standard deviation metric for variability, shown in line B30: 58.84 microseconds (µs). If you’re not familiar with variability measures, this is a modest amount of variance. Nothing out of the ordinary.

That standard deviation is also sometimes called 1-sigma. We will use it to estimate how much seafloor we must search to be sure we find the plane where we believe it is, or to be sure our location is wrong if we don’t find it. It is a very simple and common technique that puts a feedback loop in our effort. If we find it, we get an “atta-boy”. If we don’t we get a “try harder”.

Now that we have a sample of pings, we can address the number one issue: average bias across that sample. We prefer to use discrete values for the bias associated with each ping, but Inmarsat and Malaysia have elected to withhold bias data across the board, except for these 17 “calibration pings”. Why? Who knows. It’s disgraceful, but we’re not in a position to do anything about it.

It turns out that the average bias value for all 17 pings in the sample is as you see it in row 24: -495679 µs. It becomes part of a formula used to calculate the plane’s distance from the satellite at each ping.

But wait a second. We see some additional information in the insert below, including the channel from which each calibration ping was taken. And sadly, three different channels sent that information. That’s important because the broadcast channel can have a lot to do with the magnitude of each BTO data value.

It also turns out that all of the “official pings” Inmarsat used came from Channel 4. ONLY Channel 4. It may be that Inmarsat conducted cross channel tests to make sure channels 4, 8, and 11 were comparable, but if they did that they didn’t note it anywhere.

So we’re not going to take a chance by using an average BTO Bias value that appears likely to be incorrect. (We know this was a problem with Channel 10 BTO data, so we aren’t going to take a chance. In fact, the last ping … the infamous 7th ping … came from Channel 10, and we will reject it for the same reason: it transmitted on its own scale and there is NO formal translation back to channel 4 data values. )

The following table shows us the nature of the problem: eight calibration BTO values came from channel 8; seven came from channel 11; and two came from channel 4.
So we have no choice. We reject all calibration BTO values that did not come from Channel 4. It is necessary partly because to the best of anyone’s knowledge, Inmarsat did no equivalence testing before it mixed and matched BTO values. Apples and oranges.



But we still require an average bias metric since discrete values are not available. That really isn’t a problem, we just won’t have a very large sample. In fact, now we are down to only two BTO pings prior to take off that can be used for the information we need. Both of those pings were sent right at the end of the calibration window Inmarsat used to select a sample. They meed out requirements, and average bias for those two values turns out to be 495651, which is a mere 28 µs smaller than Inmarsat used.



The difference is small, but we will have to tweak average bias one more time when we attempt to use it to predict locations for which we have independent GPS great circle measures. There are three of them at: 16:42, 16:55, and 17:07. All UTC, March 7, 2014.
Now let’s see how useful Inmarsat’s BTO bias average is in predicting location when compared to Great Circle GPS look-ups:



The prediction error is shown in column AF. It isn’t horrible-bad, but if we missed a runway by 11 or 21 or 17 kilometers, we and our passengers might call it a bad landing. Moreover, these are only land predictions where we have to assume Inmarsat’s estimate of BTO bias will perform better because it was calibrated with sitting-at-the-end-of-the-runway values.
So, let’s see if our BTO estimate fares better.



Well, that’s disappointing. The Chillit estimate is better than Inmarsat’s estimate, but neither of them is good enough to find even a maxed out Boeing 777, which is barely one-sixteenth of one kilometer wide if all in one piece. And the scan width of sidescan sonar units is maybe 3 km.

So we need to do better. Fortunately, we can.

It turns out that if we play with this problem long enough there are at least two BTO bias values for the MH370 flight. One while it was on the ground (495672) and one for flight at 35,000 feet (495587). These are important pieces of the puzzle and will help us find the plane faster.

Now let’s take another shot at predicting the plane’s distance from its satellite again (a ping ring).



The last column on the right shows we’ve now substantially reduced what is known as error-of-the-estimate (or mean) using a second BTO Bias estimate of -495587 for flight-level location estimation. It still isn’t perfect, but we’re not likely to improve on this much given the variance that occurs in any mechanical or electrical system. Not to mention in conjunction with a satellite that wobbles in orbit.

Second: Establish Sub-Satellite Point for 3-F1 at 00:19

You need to call up NOAA’s ellipsoidal calculator at this link to do this, or you need to just take my word for it.

http://www.ngs.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/xyz_getgp.prl

The satellite’s location at 00:19, according to Inmarsat, was 0.53N, 64.464E. That is simply the satellite’s location on the surface of the earth if you linked the satellite to the center of the earth with a straight line.

Here are all of the coordinates provided by Inmarsat:

I will mention that Whiz Kids among us have come up with a simple Excel spreadsheet that will permit calculation of the satellite at any time. It’s nifty and permits us to select any time on either side of the time values shown above.

Third: Calculate BTO Variability, or Sigma

Once I decided to limit calibration to just Channel 4 values, calculation of sigma was set in stone. It is whatever sigma for a sample is for the two remaining BTO values: 14940 and 14920. Both were generated at 16:29 on the tarmac. The satellite was moving of course, so we like the fact that we have two values taken within a very brief period to minimize distortion caused by satellite movement. Using any standard deviation calculator for a sample, sigma is 10 µs. That is a much friendlier sigma than the one we got earlier from the entire calibration sample (58.8 µs). Lower variability is good.

Fourth: Calculate the Final Arc (formerly the Seventh Arc)

This is not difficult. The BTO and BFO values published in what are known as the supplemental log files make it very clear that there is no information at all in the seventh ping, beyond the fact that a time stamp was obtained. This is all that survived whatever the plane was trying to report at 00:19.



A BFO value of -2 means nothing. Same goes for a BTO value of 49660, although at least it appears to be on the right continuum for a Channel 10 transmission. We are better off without it. At best, it will mislead our analysis enormously. So we dump it.

That leaves us with the 6th Arc and that is enough. Where is it? This is where each of the arcs lies based on this revised data. Only the sixth is important (line 16). The rest may have value if we figure out how to connect them. For now, they may as well exist on other planets. They have no mutual links.



The table above shows that the 6th and final arc has a radius of 4,799 km. The margins of error on either side of it have radii of 4,739 km and 4,859 km, respectively. The spread is 120 km, which is the width of the swath we need to scan to be nearly certain it could not be farther from the mean. We can reduce the width of the swath by adopting a 3 Sigma standard, but we risk missing it if we do, and if it is really there. These are the trade-offs we face everyday in real life. We just have to be prepared to live with our decision.

Below is the visual for all of this. Obviously, we have put quite a bit of distance between the final arc and the area ATSB has actually scanned, shown in sand brown.



In fact, we have corrected Inmarsat’s original arc by 109 km, and ATSB’s arc by 129 km. Sadly, as noted at the outset, it also means no part of the area that has been searched is where the plane would now be if it flew south of Broken Ridge.

I am not proposing that the search simply move west 100+ kilometers. There is plenty of other evidence gathered by a number of respected agencies / individuals that show the plane simply did not fly that far south. All of the debris found to date almost certainly originated (if the Arc is correct) west of Exmouth, Shark Bay, and Geraldton. There is a 600 km strip of seafloor there that almost certainly has the plane. We need to go there.
This entry was posted in 7th Arc by Mike Chillit. Bookmark the permalink.

MC - mammoth effort man, box of chocfrogs is in the fridge (its damn hot over here), you'll just have to come Downunda to collect them...  
MTF...P2

[Peetwo]

Captain's Log 26.11.16: HSSS archive entry 161126

Although I indicated at #336 that I am just about over the seemingly endless stream of MH370 theories, I note that today the Oz is carrying several articles on the subject of MH370 theories, expert consensus on those theories and the now inevitable BB attack on the ATSB...

Search leaves no path for truth
12:00amBYRON BAILEY
Adopting the unresponsive pilot theory on MH370 essentially means there is unlikely to be evidence about its fate.


Pilot hijacked MH370: experts
12:00amEAN HIGGINS
A survey of air crash investigators and commercial pilots ­has found MH370 pilot Zaharie Ahmad Shah hijacked the plane.


Enigma of MH370: key theories
12:00amEan Higgins
Sex, politics and the latest crash theories: rogue pilot or hero, we’ll never be quite certain until MH370 is located.

  
So again not wanting to enter too much into the HSSS bollocks but I thought the bottom article, from that man 'Iggins worthy of regurgitation, as it almost perfectly summarises the weaknesses of some of the more credible recent theories and highlights the dangers of theorising without anymore hard facts and/or evidence...

...For most of the airline pilots and professional air crash investigators who form the close-knit international community of MH370 addicts, captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah has been the sole and absolute villain of the piece.

It might have been because he was outraged by the Malaysian government’s persecution of his relative and political idol, opposition figure Anwar Ibrahim. Anwar had his acquittal on sodomy charges overturned by a court the day before the fateful scheduled flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing on March 8, 2014.

Or it might have been what a married woman who was not his wife, revealed by The Australian to be Fatima Pardi, with whom he had a close but she insists not sexual relationship, had told him in a secret message exchange two days before the flight.

Either way, the dominant view has been that Zaharie hijacked his own aircraft when co-pilot Fariq Abdul Hamid was locked out of the cockpit, turned off the radar transponder and ceased radio ­contact.

Zaharie then flew himself and the other 238 souls on the Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 on a zigzag route over the Malaysian-Thai air border to confuse authorities, over Penang and then northwest, finally turning on to a long track south and a watery, deep grave in a lonely part of the southern Indian Ocean.

There are a few sub-variations.

Zaharie might have depressurised the aircraft early and allowed himself and everyone else on board to die from lack of oxygen, or hypoxia, once the limited supply from drop-down masks and portable bottles ran out. He could have pre-programmed the death flight route into the autopilot.

Or he could have put on his oxygen mask with its several hours’ supply, outlasted all others on board and, when they were dead, re-pressurised the aircraft and flown it to the end in comfort, ditching it under power or gliding it after fuel exhaustion to try to make it disappear in as few bits as possible. Either way, Zaharie would be a mass murderer.

But according to a theory developed by former RAAF supply officer, retired logistics manager with Ansett, private pilot and amateur aviation sleuth Mick Gilbert, Zaharie was in fact the hero who tried to save his passengers and crew against overwhelming odds during an on-board fire.

Then, when all was lost, he turned the aircraft towards where it could do no harm to anyone on the surface.

In US aviation journalist Christine Negroni’s scenario, Zaharie was also a hero, struggling to get back to the cockpit after a rapid decompression but succumbing to hypoxia along the way.

This left young first officer Fariq trying to work out what to do, with his brain befuddled by partial hypoxia because of a faulty oxygen supply.

And, in another theory, Zaharie was a bit silly in inviting a pretty girl to the cockpit for a photo op, since she was, in fact, part of a terrorist hijack gang. Later on in the flight, when the chance arose, he and Fariq valiantly tried to retake control of the aircraft from the hijackers but died fighting.

As the ongoing search for MH370 draws to a close in coming weeks without a trace of the aircraft apart from two small pieces of debris from the fuselage, the Australian Transport Safety Bureau and its group of international experts have been conducting a “first principles” review of everything known about the flight and will soon produce a report.

The ATSB has always been eager to say it is running the underwater search for MH370 on behalf of the Malaysian government, which under international law is responsible for the investigation. In fact, the ATSB considered three possible scenarios and selected as its working proposition what has become known as the “ghost flight” or “death dive” theory: that at the end of the flight the crew was “unresponsive”, having possibly been overcome by hypoxia, and the aircraft went down unpiloted and fast after running out of fuel.

The problem the ATSB faces now is that it defined its 120,000sq km search zone based on that theory, and the search hasn’t found the plane, suggesting the ATSB’s theory may be wrong, and it has blown about $200 million of Australian, Malaysia and Chinese taxpayers’ money.

Two vessels, one from the Dutch Fugro survey group hired to lead the search plus the Chinese government vessel Dong Hai Jiu 101, are still out in the southern Indian Ocean scouring the last corners of the target zone.

But they are due to finish that task in January or February, and the three governments funding the search have said it would be resumed only “should credible new information emerge”.

Aviation sources have told Inquirer some in the ATSB would be keen to continue the search in a northerly direction along what is known as the “seventh arc” of automatic electronic handshakes between MH370 and the Inmarsat satellite, which shows the track, but not the precise position, where the aircraft went down.

China is thought to be ambivalent but, as revealed by The Australian, security experts believe Beijing authorities see a fringe benefit in having the Dong Hai Jiu 101 spy on Australian military bases and activities in Western Australia, a claim a Chinese embassy spokesman has described as “wild speculation”.

The sources say, however, that Malaysia, which has been trying to shut down the story domestically, has vetoed any continuation of the search.

Prominent US airline pilot turned air crash investigator John Cox thinks the ATSB may be hoping in commissioning the expert review that “if this group finds reason to, and recommends searching in a different area, it will be much ­easier to persuade the involved countries”.

Cox, who has served on several major air crash investigations with the US National Transportation Safety Board, has changed his thinking somewhat in recent months about what might have happened on MH370.

Cox used to be absolutely in the “rogue pilot” camp. But he thinks the theory Gilbert has developed is so well-researched and thought-through that he now has a more open mind.
“His work and efforts have caused me to back off my thinking that a deliberate act by the captain was the most likely scenario,” Cox told Inquirer this week.

While the on-board fire theory was one of the early ones to do the rounds, it was generally regarded as having been comprehensively shot down.

There was no distress call, it would not explain the route, and a fire would thoroughly destroy the aircraft quickly, or at least its capacity for straight and level flight, meaning it could not have kept flying for another seven hours.

Based on extensive research of the mechanics of the Boeing 777 and aviation crises that have happened in the past, Gilbert has come up with a scenario that purports to plug these gaps.

The starting point in Gilbert’s theory is a fire in the left, pilot-side windshield heater, something known to have happened from time to time, including on Boeing 777s, which burns out some circuits, including that of the radar transponder.

Both pilots don their oxygen masks immediately and turn off the left electrical AC bus to cut power to the short-circuiting heater, but in the process they inadvertently turn off the satellite data unit that makes the electronic handshake “pings” with Inmarsat.

Zaharie fights the fire with an extinguisher, and in the confusion neither pilot immediately makes a radio distress call.

In any event, pilots are trained that radio communication is the third priority in a crisis, after flying the aircraft and setting a heading to the nearest airport: the drill is “aviate, navigate, communicate”, and whoever was flying MH370 did just that by quickly turning back towards Malaysia.

Then, disaster. While reaching for an extinguisher, Zaharie accidentally pulls the tube from the oxygen mask out of its socket.

“That now dumps oxygen at an incredible rate into the cockpit,” Gilbert says, creating a violent fire which is “almost impossible to control”.

He adds: “I think one pilot has made it out of the cockpit alive, but injured.”

Then something else intervenes. The fire weakens the bottom of the windshield and it dislodges, leading to the air rushing out of the cockpit and a sharp fall in temperature, putting out the fire. The decompression of the aircraft, still at high altitude, would cause the oxygen masks to drop, providing about 12 minutes of breathing for the passengers.

There are, however, several portable oxygen bottles and masks available to the crew.

Gilbert’s theory is that the fire partly, but not completely, burned out the cockpit, just like an oxygen fire that melted some control features but not others of an EgyptAir Boeing 777 in an accident on the ground in 2011.

The scenario is then one of gruesome desperation and bravery, with a badly injured Zaharie returning for brief times to the freezing, wind-blasted cockpit to try to regain control, possibly instructing a flight attendant.

The radio knobs have melted, so that “just selecting a radio and tuning it would have been almost impossible”, Gilbert suggests.

But the autopilot, or flight management system, is sufficiently intact to set new headings, although the fire has knocked out the auto-throttle so Zaharie can’t set it to descend.
On a dark night, with a smoky windscreen and some non-functioning instruments, taking over manual control would be problematic and risky.

As Zaharie flies over Penang he decides to turn northwest up the Strait of Malacca, away from built-up areas, to continue the troubleshooting process during which he turns the left electrical AC bus back on, repowering the satellite data unit.

But then, with his own and his assistant’s portable oxygen tanks running out, and all the passengers and the rest of the cabin crew dead, Zaharie accepts the game is up.

He realises, in Gilbert’s words: “It’s two of us versus the danger of killing a whole lot of people in a busy shipping channel.” Zaharie turns the autopilot to a southerly heading to nowhere and soon MH370 becomes a ghost flight.

There are a lot of attractions in Gilbert’s theory, including that it deals with the sub-mystery of why the satellite data unit was turned off for a time, then came back on.

Negroni’s rapid decompression scenario is another that would ostensibly explain the flight route without assuming pilot hijack.

Fariq, on his own in the cockpit while Zaharie is on a “biological break”, tries to deal with the crisis but gets only a partial supply of oxygen from a defective mask, tube or bottle.
In its early phase hypoxia has some of the same symptoms as drunkenness.

Fariq makes a rational decision at first to turn back towards Malaysia but then, light-headed with hypoxia, makes a couple of irrational course changes before his oxygen runs out altogether, leaving the aircraft flying south on ­autopilot.

Geoffrey Dell, a transport accident investigator who is now an associate professor at Central Queensland University, prefers yet another scenario, which he describes as the only one that “doesn’t require a string of implausible simultaneous unrelated failures and errors”.

As Dell observes, Zaharie had published a video of him allowing young women on to the flight deck.

“The would-be hijackers wouldn’t have to threaten a flight attendant … just simply include a young woman in the hijack team and just ask for a photo opportunity with the captain on the flight deck,” Dell says.

A smart hijacking crew could have thus taken the crew by surprise, before they could issue a distress call, and ordered the pilots to turn off the radar transponder.

They then might command the crew to head towards Afghanistan, for example, where the Taliban might hold runways long enough to land such an aircraft and to kidnap its human cargo for terrorist statement or ransom.

“If the crew did then find an opportunity to try to regain control of the flight and a fight ensued, it’s plausible that it could easily have resulted in the death or incapacitation of everyone who can fly the aircraft,” Dell says.

“Then the (flight management system) would have continued to fly the aircraft.”
Most of the commercial airline pilots and air crash investigators approached by Inquirer stick to the rogue pilot theory as the likeliest scenario, and most assume Zaharie flew the aircraft to the end.

With Gilbert’s on-board fire theory, they say, the lack of a distress call would be unprecedented, as would the catastrophic failure of the windshield because of a heater fire.

Negroni’s rapid decompression theory is the least popular. Most of the panel say the idea Fariq would be just conscious enough to fly the aircraft for a couple of hours, but sufficiently hypoxic to do so erratically, is highly improbable: he would have got his reliable oxygen mask on and taken the flight to safety or he would have passed out quickly.

As for the hijack theory, it has been widely reported that while two Iranian passengers carried stolen passports, authorities believe their motive was illegal immigration to Europe. Background checks showed they and the rest of the passengers and crew had nothing hinting at a terrorist past, and there was no claim of responsibility by any terrorist group.

Without the discovery of the aircraft and its black box flight data and cockpit voice recorders, none of the five theories can be conclusively proved or disproved, and that’s why most aviation professionals believe the search should be continued.

“The idea that they are not going to search for the aeroplane to finality is a serious precedent in all aviation,” David Booth, president of the Australian Federation of Air Pilots, tells this newspaper...

Hmmm...no comment but I firmly support this statement...

"..that’s why most aviation professionals believe the search should be continued..."

...and totally agree with AFAP's David Booth that we should not be setting such a precedent as not seeing through to finality the search & investigation of MH370...


MTF...P2

[Kharon]

Two bob’s worth of opinion please.

Booth - “The idea that they are not going to search for the aircraft to finality is a serious precedent in all aviation,”

A good point, well made; but, it begs the question – Why not?

What possible reason can there be for not continuing? A hiatus would be perfectly understandable; there is new data and fresh ideas to consider. “We are having a re-think and attempting to redefine the search area, but first we must exclude the area currently being searched”. That would be a reasonable statement to make, acceptable and sensible.

We must, IMO, believe there is now a high probability that the aircraft is not where the original search area placed it – again, reasonable. No one could blame the ‘boffins’ for that – hells bells, it is a huge area, bugger all data and massive public pressure to ‘do’ something. For weal or for woe; no matter how the search area was defined, that search is reaching it’s conclusion.  What to do next is the right question; whether or not to continue the search is a very wrong one.

I flatly refuse to believe that the daemon Dollar has any influence on that question. A new boffin crew and a search could be funded in weeks through ‘crowd funding’, or lottery; or tax deductible donation: money could be found – a damn sight quicker and easier than the aircraft. We do need to find this aircraft. Emotive issues aside, there are many sound technical and security questions which must, absolutely, be answered; correctly. No matter what your ‘pet’ theory de jour is, a repeat, another aircraft disappearing into the night sky, is unthinkable. Anything and everything possible, no matter the cost or the time, must be done to prevent a reoccurrence. Whether it be pilot mental health, terrorism, political protest, aircraft mechanical or systems failure, cock-up, punch up, or conspiracy, we need a definite answer; and, a solution.

Any response, other than the search effort continues simply makes a mockery of the government ‘safety is all’ statements. Consider this – until the world knows the how and the why of MH 370’s disappearance – there is no guarantee that however unlikely, this cannot happen, for whatever the reason, again.  There is no plausible excuse for discontinuing the search, there are 239 reasons to continue.

Selah.

[Peetwo]

Captain's Log 03.12.16: DOI 161203 - Blaine & the plane

Excellent article via Indian publication 'The Week'...

Blaine & the plane
By Rachna Tyagi | December 11, 2016

   Piecing together the story: Blaine Alan Gibson with pieces of Flight MH370 debris on Riake beach in Madagascar.

THE WEEK brings you the story of a one-man army’s mission to unravel the mystery of Flight MH370. And what it means to families of Indian victims

• “If the pilot wanted to commit suicide or mass murder, he did not have to fly for so many hours. Also, he could have crashed the plane into some prominent location....” - Pralhad Shirsath, husband of Kranti, who was on Flight MH370
  
• Since the age of seven, he dreamt of visiting every country in the world. On the last count, he had been to 177 of 195 countries. His weather-beaten face and wind-swept hair testify his love for travel. Blaine Alan Gibson’s wanderlust and passion for adventure, he says, are in his DNA. It takes the Seattle-based lawyer to mountains, deserts, oceans, forests and to places where “historic or political events” are happening. He relishes “solving mysteries”, too.
  
• Gibson’s findings shatter the theory that the flight’s cabin could be intact on the seabed because of the pilot’s controlled ditching into the water. “It was a high-speed impact, and it shattered the plane,” he says.
  
• “If the pilot wanted to commit suicide or mass murder, he did not have to fly for so many hours. Also, he could have crashed the plane into some prominent location....” - Pralhad Shirsath, husband of Kranti, who was on Flight MH370
  
• Since the age of seven, he dreamt of visiting every country in the world. On the last count, he had been to 177 of 195 countries. His weather-beaten face and wind-swept hair testify his love for travel. Blaine Alan Gibson’s wanderlust and passion for adventure, he says, are in his DNA. It takes the Seattle-based lawyer to mountains, deserts, oceans, forests and to places where “historic or political events” are happening. He relishes “solving mysteries”, too.
  
  

From exploring the Guatemalan and Belize jungles as part of a project trying to solve the Mayan mystery, to being the second American to go to the epicentre of the Tunguska meteorite crater in Siberia, Gibson, 58, has done it all.

“I talk with people in different time zones across the world. So, I do not know what day of the week it is,” he quips.

Right now, Gibson, who is reluctant to disclose his current location, is chasing one of the biggest mysteries in modern history: Flight MH370. What happened to the Malaysia Airlines flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing that disappeared on March 8, 2014?

“We need to find out to give answers to families of the people who went missing, as well as to the world,” he says.

Gibson is often seen in ‘MH370’ T-shirts. “One of them was purchased at the first commemoration [of the flight going missing] in Kuala Lumpur,” he says. “It was made by the families of the victims.”

The others were gifted to him by the families at the second commemoration in Kuala Lumpur. “They refused to accept money, and insisted on me taking them, including the one I am wearing right now—which says MH 370 The Search: Keep It On.”

Gibson started his “independent investigation” a year after the flight went missing.

Discussions in Facebook groups intrigued him initially, but it was the first commemoration in Kuala Lumpur that made him embark on the mission.

“I was shocked when I realised that, even after a year, the officials were not searching the beaches, nobody had interviewed eyewitnesses, everything was based on Inmarsat satellite data, and they had found nothing,” he recalls. “Then when I heard Grace Nathan [spokesperson of Voice 370, a support group of crash victims’ families] speak about her mother, it sounded so much like the way I would speak about my mother.”

The solo search is no big deal, he says. “The truth is that it doesn’t cost all that much,” says Gibson, who does not have a wife or children. All that he takes with him on his sea expeditions is his phone, with which he records GPS readings and takes pictures.

The travel expenses, too, are modest. “For instance, when I went to the Maldives, I stayed at a $40-per-night inn; I do not stay at thousand-dollar resorts,” he says.

Gibson is grateful to the local communities that have helped him, and says he can sense if he is likely to find some debris “as soon as I get to a beach”. “If I see things like nets, buoys and plastic scrap that are coming from the Indian Ocean, I know there is a chance that there could be something from the plane, too,” he says.

   Sign of hope: A woman leaves a message of support for passengers of the missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 in Kuala Lumpur | Reuters

The Aircrash Support Group Australia, which represents the families of the crash victims, invited Gibson to Australia and arranged for him to meet oceanographer Charitha Pattiaratchi (Dr Charie). He also met Deputy Prime Minister Warren Trust and other top officials engaged in the search.

“These are very sincere people, very seriously trying to find the plane,” says Gibson.

The discovery of the flaperon [a wing part used to stabilise aircraft] showed where the plane could have crashed. “We knew it was somewhere in the southern Indian Ocean, south of the Equator,” he says. “We have more than 22 pieces of debris [the last count given by the Malaysians, 9 of which are Gibson’s finds] in the southwest Indian Ocean. Everything is near Africa, nothing has been found in Australia or Tasmania.”

Gibson found the wing’s “No Step” panel in Mozambique in February 2016. That was the second piece of MH370 debris to be reported (the flaperon being the first). Incidentally, a South African teenager, Liam Lotter, who was holidaying in Mozambique, also discovered a piece of the aircraft’s fairing.

In June 2016, Gibson found five more pieces of debris on a beach in Madagascar. “That’s one beach, just 18km long,” says Gibson.

He went to that beach based on Dr Charie’s drift pattern clues. “It was clearly a hot zone,” says Gibson, who was surprised that nobody else went there.

Gibson handed over five pieces of debris to the Madagascar authorities. A Malaysian investigator was supposed to pick them up, but the plan, for reasons unknown, was cancelled, he says.

“The pieces are still sitting there,” says Gibson. “Malaysia recently said it will have its high commissioner pick them up. I hope that happens.”

On another beach 13km away, Gibson found three more pieces of debris. “I took two of them to Malaysia myself because they were small.”

The significance of the debris is that they indicate that the plane shattered on impact, says Gibson.

“Three are pieces from the interior cabin—one is the monitor case that goes around the TV at the back of seats... that is unmistakable. I saw that and tears welled up in my eyes,” he says. “One piece has the interior cabin laminate, the nice pretty little white pattern, and it is distinctive to Malaysia Airlines. These pieces prove that the cabin shattered on impact.”

These findings shatter the theory that the cabin could be intact on the seabed because of the pilot’s controlled ditching into the water, says Gibson.

“That was not what happened, period,” he says. “It was a high-speed impact, and it shattered the plane.”

   Deep Down Under : Australia has been in the forefront of the MH370 search operations. This 2014 photo shows Australian defence clearance divers scan for debris in the southern Indian Ocean. Up to 14 planes and as many ships focused on a single search area covering 77, 580 sq.km northwest of Perth. Sadly, no evidence was found in this region.

Doubts about Inmarsat data
Global experts have looked at this data and interpreted that the plane went southwards. Using certain assumptions, they identified a probable crash area.

“What if the satcom system was not operating perfectly?” he asks. “Even if you are off a little bit, you are off by a fairly large area.”

Gibson, however, says Inmarsat data is the best evidence available as of now. But there are limitations, he adds. “The satellite only knew how far the plane was,” he says. “It was not getting GPS coordinates transmitted back because Malaysia Airlines had not signed up for that programme.”

Gibson feels it is important to look at other evidences. “The debris and the drift analyses give us some clues,” he says. “Then, there are witnesses in the Maldives who saw a large, low-flying, jet plane that matched the description of MH370. If the eyes of the satellite are wrong, the eyes of the fishermen could be right.”

What about the article in Le Monde that claimed what the fishermen saw was a private jet?

“Oh, the fishermen are absolutely sure about what they saw,” says Gibson. “I have published the flight record from that morning. There was no domestic propeller plane flight flying there at that time.”

The article says the aircraft in question—Flight 149—was from Male to Thimarafushi, landing at 6:33am. “That flight did not exist, period,” says Gibson. “It was confirmed by the air-traffic controller.”

Gibson, however, clarifies that there is no proof that what the fishermen saw was, indeed, MH370.

“First, the Maldivian authorities said that there was no plane at all because their radars did not detect any aircraft. Then they said that it was a private jet, and rumours went out on the internet that it was the crown prince of Saudi Arabia [now the king], or Prince William and Kate Middleton,” says Gibson.

   Great depression: An MH370 passenger’s friend weeps as he waits for news from Malaysia Airlines at the lobby of a hotel in Beijing in March 2014 | Reuters

The Maldivian authorities did not detect the plane because they do not have any radar down there, he says. “Probably, they were embarrassed to say that a big plane could have flown over their country and they did not know about it.”

William and Kate flew in on a 747, a regularly scheduled flight—not a private jet—from London a couple of days earlier, says Gibson.

Similarly, the Saudi prince flew into Male airport in his 747, which did not go over Kudahuvadhoo, where the fishermen claimed to see the aircraft,” he says.
So, what did the fishermen actually see? “Mystery,” he says.

Gibson says he was well-received by the authorities and investigation team in Malaysia when he arrived with the pieces of debris. “The problem appears to be at the upper levels,” he notes.

Gibson, however, is all praise for the Australians. “They have been absolutely wonderful with the families of victims,” he says. “It was not their plane, but it is their search area.”
Australia invited the families and Gibson on board the search ship. “Those guys on that ship really care, they are really trying to find this plane,” he says.

   A passenger’s relative wails in grief after a news conference in Kuala Lumpur | Reuters

Gibson has a set of detractors, too. In fact, there are people who allege his findings were “planted”. He dismisses such criticism as “absolutely preposterous”.

“The person who started the whole thing has a theory that the plane is buried in sand in Kazakhstan,” he says. “Another one has a theory that the plane crashed in the Gulf of Thailand. For them, it is about protecting their pet theories. For me, it is about finding the truth.”

Gibson laughs at the idea of him travelling around the world with Boeing 777 parts in his suitcase. “That is clearly character defamation,” he says. “I am a private citizen, spending my own money to try to find out what happened to this plane.”

He has also got some veiled threats. “I remember one of them saying, ‘No plane, no Blaine’,” he says. “I have learnt that there are agenda factories. There seem to be people out there who want to blame traditional enemies such as the US, Israel and the Arabs. There is a big list of conspiracy theories out there.”

Gibson says he is steadfast in his mission because he is making a difference. “And I am not going to give up,” he says.

   Oceanic mystery: Australian air force personnel throw a self-locating data marker buoy from a C-130J Hercules aircraft during a search sortie over southern Indian Ocean | AFP

The Indian connect
What makes Blaine’s efforts laudable is evident only when one speaks to the real sufferers in this mystery. THE WEEK met two of the three families of Indian victims that are yet to recover from the shock. (Samved Kolhekar, who lost his parents and younger brother, did not respond to repeated attempts to contact him.)

Kranti Shirsath

A 2012 family photo greets me as I enter Pralhad Shirsath’s spacious apartment in Pune. In the frame, Pralhad, Kranti and their sons Rahul and Yashwant (aka Kabir) are beaming, standing on the Great Wall of China.

The smile on Pralhad’s face now is different, strained. Rahul’s cherubic face has turned gaunt—he has dark, sunken sockets for eyes.

Rahul was 16 and Kabir 9 when their mother, a chemistry lecturer, boarded Flight MH370 to join Pralhad, who was then working in Pyongyang, North Korea.

“My mother had a long trip: Mumbai-Delhi-Kuala Lumpur-Beijing-Pyongyang. The last time we spoke was when she called from Mumbai to say bye,” says Rahul. “I wished her a happy journey.”

The next morning, Rahul had just woken up when his uncle called, telling him to watch news. “I got nervous,” he recalls.

Then he saw it: a Malaysia Airlines plane had “vanished”. “I could feel blood pumping through my veins, and then I fainted,” he says. “When I regained consciousness, I called my father. On hearing my voice, he broke down. That was when reality hit me—‘this is actually happening’. I frantically tried my mother’s number, but there was no response.”
On the night before, Pralhad had called Kranti to make sure she had boarded the flight; he was to pick her up the next morning. “Everything is okay... don’t worry, see you in the morning,” she said.

After the news broke, Pralhad used his connections in diplomatic circles and travelled by road and air to China. “In Beijing, Buddhist monks rushed to help the relatives of victims. They spoke fluent English and were well-trained to handle such situations.”

   Back to base: Indian Navy ship INS Kesari, which was involved in search operations, returns to Port Blair | Reuters

The Indian embassies—in North Korea, China and Malaysia—were very helpful, says Pralhad, who was the country head of Concern Worldwide in North Korea.

He quit the job and returned to India to take care of his children. He spends most of his time in Pimpalgaon, about 200km from Pune, where he grows bell peppers in a greenhouse. “This place has her memories,” he says. Now, all he seeks is “the truth, some conclusions”.

According to Inmarsat data, the flight was airborne for about eight hours after it disappeared from the radar. “If it flew over Malaysia and Indonesia, how come their surveillance systems did not spot it? Also, that means somebody was controlling that plane,” he says.

Even if there was a technical glitch, the Boeing 777 has six systems to communicate with the ground, notes Pralhad. “How can all malfunction at the same time?” he asks.
Pralhad, who slams the Malaysian authorities for their lethargic approach, has also been questioning them on the flight’s cargo. “We know that there were lithium-ion batteries for Motorola China as well as cartons of mangosteen. If there was a fire because of the batteries, the pilots would have placed distress calls,” he says.

   
Pralhad rules out pilot suicide or mass murder theories. “If the pilot wanted to commit suicide or mass murder, he did not have to fly for so many hours. Also, he could have crashed the plane into some prominent location and achieved a bigger result.”

Global politics could have been at play, says Pralhad. “In Kuala Lumpur, the relatives of missing Chinese victims kept saying that they had to be cautious as government spies were after them,” he says.

Pralhad also recalls a theory that North Korea had hijacked Flight MH370. “I have a hundred reasons to believe that because that country can do anything.... It is also capable of hiding that aircraft.”

Pralhad’s pain is palpable. He recalls an incident a few months after the tragedy. “At a birthday party, some games had been organised for children.

z The compere announced that a gift awaited the kid who ran to him first with his or her mother’s purse. Like other children, Kabir [who was just nine] darted in excitement, and then suddenly stopped. I was crushed.”

Pralhad says the trauma is far from reaching a closure. “Even now when I go to bed, I type MH370 on my mobile to get updates,” he says.
Chandrika Sharma

K.S. Narendran, a management consultant in Chennai, lost his wife Chandrika Sharma, who was on her way to Mongolia. She was the executive secretary of International Collective in Support of Fish Workers.

   Good old memories: Pralhad Shirsath with wife Kranti, who was on Flight MH 370, and their sons during a holiday.

The couple had met at the Tata Institute of Social Sciences in Mumbai, and got close while working in Delhi. Narendran describes Chandrika as “a lively, animated person who had a tremendous zest for life”. “Yet, she had a seriousness revolving around larger social and environmental concerns,” he says.

Narendran and daughter Meghna visited Kuala Lumpur, but “the trip didn’t answer any questions or offer new perspectives”, he says. “However, it was good to meet other families [of victims],” he says.

Did anyone from India contact him? “Zilch,” he says. “The incident took place in March, and the general elections were due in May. So it was not surprising.”

However, the Indian embassy in Kuala Lumpur has been in touch and “very helpful”, says Narendran.

Malaysia Airlines offers tele-support to the families, but the calls have a “call-centre quality to them”, he says. “Ask them questions, and they would flounder. Earlier, they called daily or once in a couple of days; now they call once a week.”

The situation is frustrating, says Narendran. “One wants a certain logical end,” he says.

“The cases are in the court. Malaysia Airlines had offered $50,000 as the first instalment of compensation. Given the overall air of suspicion, one didn’t know what one was signing up for.... One was not in a hurry. Accepting it would be a tacit admission that it is all over.”

Narendran feels no big money has been spent on the search. “They have spent about $180 million, while a Boeing 777 costs about $300 million,” he says. “China—a big economy, which had the maximum number of passengers on that flight—has not contributed proportionately, and that is mysterious.”

   Anguish and anger: K.S. Narendran of Chennai (right) lost his wife Chandrika Sharma (left), who, he says, had a “tremendous zest for life” | R.G. Sasthaa

Similarly, he wonders why all 14 countries, including India, whose citizens were on the flight, are not taking sufficient interest in the search.

Recently, he wrote to the ministries of external affairs and civil aviation, urging them “to be willing to fund the continuation of the search, to be counted as an interested player, to push Malaysia to deal with the debris on time and report back and to help the families to deal with the aftermath and other legal processes”.

No response yet, he says.

Narendran says, initially, he had many well-wishers around him. “But once the house empties out, one has to stare at the emptiness and it stares back,” he says.

Some things are irreversible, he says. “If I have to move forward, I have to be willing to let go of some things,” he adds. “I, however, am not yet willing.”

No comment required -  

Also very much related courtesy @cryfortruth: https://www.dropbox.com/s/em5nzf97g8e7c6...1.pdf?dl=0

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[Peetwo]

Captain's Log 05.12.16: The Oz v ATSB - Contrail re-visit?

Courtesy 'that man' in the Oz this AM - :

MH370 aid offer renewed
12:00amEAN HIGGINS
A physicist has renewed a proposal to try to find where MH370 went down using archival satellite imagery.

Are we looking for MH370 in the wrong place?2:57

Pilot Byron Bailey explains the holes in the current theory as to the whereabouts of MH370

• December 2nd 2016
  
• 4 days ago
  
• /video/video.news.com.au/News/
  

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A Melbourne cloud physicist has renewed a proposal to Australian and Malaysian authorities to try to find where Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 went down using archival satellite imagery to track its contrails.

Aron Gingis, a scientist who held posts at Monash and the Hebrew University of Jerusalem before setting up a consultancy, said tracking aircraft movements by this method was more precise than the satellite electronic “handshake” data relied on by the Australian Transport Safety Bureau.

The ATSB has based its search strategy on automatic hourly Inmarsat satellite exchanges with MH370 during its flight to the southern Indian Ocean on March 8, 2014, with 239 people on board.

The ATSB has claimed the Inmarsat data shows the Boeing 777 was in a rapid descent at the end of the flight, supporting its “ghost flight” or “death dive” ­theory that it flew on autopilot with “unresponsive” pilots until ­running out of fuel and crashing.

• More: Enigma of MH370: key theories
  

Some international air crash investigators doubt the data is good enough to be confident of that conclusion, while senior commercial pilots such as Australian aviator and commentator Byron Bailey believe Captain ­Zaharie Ahmad Shah hijacked his own aircraft and flew it to the end, outside the current search area.

Mr Gingis noted that in a technical paper Inmarsat scientists “stressed that the sensitivity of the reconstructed flight path to frequency errors is such that there remains significant uncertainty in the final location”.

The $200 million underwater search directed by the ATSB over 120,000sq km is due end in weeks.

Mr Gingis said his consultancy, Australian Management Consolidated, had access to civilian and military archival satellite imagery and meteorological data that could enable it to determine where MH370 went down in one of two ways.

By examining satellite images from March 8, 2014, his experts could look for the condensation trails made by jet aircraft in some conditions, usually clear skies.

Alternatively, Mr Gingis said, when aircraft fly through clouds, they affect the physics of the clouds. Analysis of satellite meteorological data could also potentially track MH370’s route in such conditions.

He only asked that the ­Malaysian and Australian governments cover his firm’s costs.
The ATSB told The ­Australian it had dealt with Mr Gingis in 2014: “The ATSB subsequently sought details on the techniques proposed to be used, however Mr Gingis refused to provide information for consideration on the basis it would be detrimental to his commercial interests.

“Based on the information available, the ATSB and also Geoscience Australia considered his proposal did not warrant further investigation. The ATSB still holds this view.”

Err no comment... - "INCOMING!"

In addition from Marnie via news.com.au...

Could this technology find missing Malaysian Flight MH370?

October 17, 20146:04pm
By MARNIE O’NEILLnews.com.au

AN Australian scientist says it is possible to locate missing Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 by identifying cloud changes for evidence of vapour trails caused by burning fuel emissions from the aircraft.

Hydrometeorologist Aron Gingis, head of environmental consultancy firm Australian Management Consolidated, and a former Monash University academic, specialises in cloud microphysics.

Mr Gingis says he has used the technology to locate shipwrecks in the north Pacific Ocean by identifying “ship trails” and the changes in cloud microphysics caused by emissions of floating vessels using archival satellite data.



Mr Gingis said he was able to track ship trails in the North Pacific Ocean by identifying fuel vapour emissions present in the cloud seen on the left of this archival satellite image and can do the same with MH370.

The respected engineer, who has 27 years experience in the field, offered his services to the Malaysian, Chinese and Australian authorities just weeks after the Boeing 777 vanished, only to be rejected.

“I believe that we have a realistic chance to follow flight path of Malaysian Airline MH370 and follow its flight direction and possibly identifying its landing or crash site,” Mr Gingis wrote to the Malaysian High Commissioner Eldeen Husaini in an email dated April 3 — less than a month after the plane vanished.

“I would be required to fly to KL and to have a detailed briefing with Malaysian search and rescue authorities in order to be able to identify and search for specific satellite availability and all satellite data imagery frames that we can analyse using our cloud microphysics algorithms.

“The travelling to KL and back to Melbourne and 1 day briefing session will be sufficient to explain to your search and rescue authorities as of our ability to identify the flying trails of MH370.

“I believe that we will be able to utilise our expertise and identify the flight pass of MH370 and then to direct the search and rescue authorities to save or recover MH370 passengers.”


Environmental engineer Aron Gingis in Melbourne.Source:News Corp Australia

Mr Gingis said Mr Husaini emailed him on April 10 to say his proposal had been forwarded to the “Operation Room” in Malaysia, and on April 24, the High Commissioner sent him a “thanks but no thanks” response.

“We appreciate your kind offer to assist us in finding the MH370 as we are looking into all possibilities to facilitate the search,” Mr Husaini wrote.

“However, at the moment we have engaged with all international forum which consist of experts in their own respective field to search for the missing plane.”
On May 30, Mr Gingis sent his proposal to the Australian Transport and Safety Bureau (ATSB), which is coordinating the search for MH370 in the South Indian Ocean.

On June 17, ATSB senior transport safety investigator Duncan Bosworth responded with a list of 11 questions (seen by news.com.au) grilling Mr Gingis for information the scientist says he refused to answer without being under contract for fear of compromising commercial and security interests.

In a statement to news.com.au this week, the ATSB confirmed Mr Gingis’story. The bureau also confirmed it was in possession of the relevant archival satellite images but had not engaged anyone to examine the images for airline vapour trails left by MH370.


The Fugro Equator, the autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) launched from the Australian-contracted survey ship M/V Fugro Discovery as part of a new high-resolution search for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.Source:AFP

“The ATSB asked for details of the techniques that Mr Gingis proposed to use, however Mr Gingis refused to provide information for consideration as he believed it could be detrimental to his commercial interests,” the statement said.

“The ATSB has worked closely with Australian government agencies with expertise in the analysis of satellite imagery and has fed the results into its assessment of priority search areas.

“The ATSB remains confident in the analysis work undertaken by the international experts of the Satellite Working Group and the validity of the satellite communications data on which that group has relied.”

Mr Gingis said he offered to do a reconnaissance for $17,500 — a fraction of the estimated $100 million the Australian Government is spending on the exploration of at least 60,000 sq km of unchartered seabed, which has so far uncovered nothing and has been set down for a year.

That search has been heavily criticised for its reliance on analysis of satellite communication “handshakes” to pinpoint MH370’s flight path and estimated final resting place.


Emirates chief Tim Clark does not think much of the investigation into the disappearance of MH370Source:Contour by Getty Images

Last week the head of the world’s largest fleet of Boeing 777s, Emirates CEO and president Sir Tim Clark, rubbished the ATSB’s investigation and hinted at a cover-up by Malaysian authorities among others.

Sir Tim also said he did not believe MH370 flew south for five hours before running out of fuel and spiralling into the South Indian Ocean, as the ATSB concluded in a report published earlier this month.

Sarah Bajc, the outspoken partner of American Philip Wood, one of the 239 on board Flight MH370, told news.com.au she was “astounded” that Mr Gingis’ offer to do preliminary research for just $17,500 was rejected.

“What I do know is that credible scientists who end up being right are called quacks all the time,” she said. “There were dozens who proposed the earth was round for hundreds of years before society accepted it.

“There are many functioning technologies that are squashed by ‘big business’ that is protecting its revenue streams — I would include many governments and powerful individuals in that category too.”


Sarah Hamil Bajc with partner Philip Wood, who was on board missing Malaysian flight MH370.Source:Supplied

Ms Bajc, an American expat based in Kuala Lumpur, has been vocal in her criticism of the search and, like Australian Jennifer Chong, the wife of MH370 passenger Chong Ling Tan, believes that without proof to the contrary, those on board could still be alive and that authorities have covered up the true fate of the aircraft.

“I still disagree with SIO (South Indian Ocean search) because NONE of the other evidence supports it. No radar sightings, no debris. My personal belief is that there is either intentional or unintentional miscalculation, or there is falsified data.”

Ms Bajc is leading a group of relatives of MH370 passengers who have hired a private investigator to find out what happened to the aircraft.

“We are not just refusing to accept the truth,” Ms Bajc told news.com.au.

“I would be the first person to apologise publicly for being so stubborn and contrary if they do indeed find the plane in the South Indian Ocean.

“Our position does, however, explain a total lack of debris, the string of ‘blunders’ in the search, the seemingly intentional false leads of debris and underwater pings, the redacted data logs, the error/illogical ridden Inmarsat analysis, missing/altered air traffic control records, the large ‘gaps’ in contact with the plane, missing military radar, missing cargo manifest, and the astoundingly incompetent path of the entire investigation.”


Australian Jennifer Chong and her husband Chong Ling Tan, who was on board MH370Source:Supplied

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