[Peetwo]

Getting their ducks in a row.

Special tripartite meeting on MH370 next week  
By Bernama - 18 June 2016 @ 8:33 PM

KUALA LUMPUR: A two-day special tripartite meeting on Malaysia Airlines MH370 will be convened here, beginning Monday, to deliberate on the next course of action for the vanished jetliner.

Transport Deputy Minister Datuk Ab Aziz Kaprawi told Bernama here today that the highly anticipated meeting would also look in detail, other crucial issues, including the recent discovery of several debris and inputs from aviation experts.

The meeting, involving high-level officials from Australia, China and Malaysia is expected to take place at the transport ministry in Putrajaya.

“Top in the agenda of the meeting is on the future direction of the search operation for MH370.

“Only high ranking officials will attend the meeting. Malaysia will be represented by Department of Civil Aviation Director-General Datuk Seri Azharuddin Abdul Rahman,” said Ab Aziz.

The Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) which leads the search in the Indian Ocean, is expected to complete the designated 120,000 sq km of the sea, by month-end.

The Beijing-bound MH370 aircraft with 239 passengers and crew on board disappeared from civilian radar screens on March 8, 2014, about an hour into the scheduled six-hour flight.

Its flight path was believed to have ended in the southern Indian Ocean.

---Bernama---

Call me cynical but in light of the history of disinformation & obfuscation by the Malaysians, I would call this meeting an attempt to align all the ducks and get the 'TRI' parties all singing from the same hymn sheet.

I also find the fact that this meeting is being conducted while a) the Australian Government is in caretaker mode during the election campaign; and b) while Dolan is still in charge of the ATSB; as very suspect when the search timeline has been extended due to weather delays and when Greg Hood has already stated that he is standing ready to make the tough decisions on MH370: Hoodlum to take over from Beaker

“They way I see it, there is still 15,000sq km to go and it would be remiss of us not to continue being hopeful until that area is searched,” Mr Hood told The Australian. “MH370 and what transpires with the search will be my biggest immediate challenge.

“But any decision to extend, expand or curtail the search will be a very delicate decision to be taken in conjunction with the Australian, Malaysian and Chinese governments.”

   

MTF...P2

[Peetwo]

Des Ross latest on MH370 via SMH

Search for MH370 thousands of kilometres off target: Australian aviation expert
Date June 17, 2016


Lindsay Murdoch
South-East Asia correspondent for Fairfax Media

A pilot searches for debris from MH370 in the Indian Ocean in the weeks after it disappeared.

• Suspected MH370 cabin debris found on island in Mauritius
  
• Possible MH370 debris found in South Africa
  

Bangkok:  An Australian aviation expert says he is convinced MH370 crashed into the sea west of the Malaysian mainland without proper control by the pilots who were incapacitated by a catastrophic event on board the Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777.

Desmond Ross, a commercial pilot with 25 years experience as an aviation and defence industry manager, told Fairfax Media that his "gut feeling and experience" tells him the southern Indian Ocean search has been conducted in the wrong area, thousands of kilometres from the crash site.

A curved piece of debris which may be part of the missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370, was found in Wartburg, South Africa, in March. Photo: AP

"I have said since day one that the aircraft was not under full control and was flying on a course set on the flight management system but with incapacitated pilots unable to make changes," he said.

"The aircraft descended to a low altitude because the pilots had set an emergency descent when a catastrophic event occurred on the aircraft, but they had been unable to complete their manoeuvre due to incapacitation."

The aircraft carrying 239 people inexplicably altered course from its scheduled flight path from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing while flying over the South China Sea in the early hours of March 8, 2014, turning back to fly across Malaysia.

Debris washed on to the Jamaique beach in Saint-Denis on Reunion. Photo: Reuters

Investigators say turning the plane around would have required typing a complicated code input into a flight management system, indicating either foul play or an event that caused the pilots to lose consciousness after they had done it.

Captain Ross, who conducted a review of Kuala Lumpur's international airport in 2005, said the search area was based on the "relatively flimsy science" of calculations by the British company Inmarsat, which the company itself said were not guaranteed to be accurate.

The search area was based on calculations using automatic "pings" to Inmarsat's satellite via a ground station and the aircraft after it vanished.


MH370 search map

Captain Ross said people seem to have forgotten the reports of eyewitnesses on an oil rig and yacht seeing a flaming object in the sky on the night of the disappearance, in an area west of Malaysia.

"The scientific theory could not allow these reports and they were discarded," he said.
New Zealander Mike McKay told authorities he saw what he believed to be a burning plane at high altitude when he was working on an oil rig off the Vietnamese coast on the night of the disappearance.


MH370 captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah.

"I believe I saw the Malaysian Airlines plane come down," he said.
A woman sailing a yacht between India and Australia in early March 2014 also told authorities she saw a plane surrounded by bright orange lights and with a tail of black smoke pass above her. 

Captain Ross pointed to reports that six Swiss people who were on board a cruise liner travelling between Perth and Singapore on March 12 2014 saw debris in the sea including life jackets, food trays, papers and pieces of polystyrene.


MH370 first officer Fariq Abdul Hamid.

He dismissed the argument by pundits that some aircraft parts that have been discovered on the beaches of Mozambique, Reunion Island and other east African locations prove the accuracy of the Indian Ocean search area.

"Well now – isn't it also true that these same parts may have come from somewhere much closer? How about a crash site to the west of Malaysia?"

The first debris confirmed to be from MH370 was a control panel called a flaperon that washed up on the French Indian Ocean island of Reunion in July 2015.

Other debris that almost certainly came from plane washed up in Mozambique in December 2015 and February this year.

In March, a section of an engine bearing a Rolls Royce logo washed up in Mossell Bay South Africa and the same month a fragment of an interior door panel was found on Rodrigues Island, Mauritius.

Captain Ross dismissed as "rubbish" the theory that a suicidal Malaysian pilot did a circuit around his home island before flying on for more than seven hours to ditch the plane in the Indian Ocean.

"The home island was beside a highly sensitive international '5 eyes' surveillance facility and the major Penang air force base, the home of the Royal Malaysian Air Force, and it is highly unlikely that the Malaysian military would have allowed such loitering of an unidentified aircraft in their airspace," he said.

"If it did, it shows their lack of interest in security or their incompetence in following unidentified traffic."

Investigators said in a report released in March last year there were "no behavioural signs of social isolation, change in interests or habits, self-neglect, drug or alcohol abuse of the captain, first officer and the cabin crew."

The report said investigators found nothing in the backgrounds of the plane's captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah or more junior pilot Fariq Abdul Hamid to suggest they would deliberately crash the plane.

Captain Ross said he is concerned about speculation that the plane "glided" from its cruise altitude further on a southerly course than thought when the engines quit before going into the water.

"We have already been told that military radar showed it descending to about 10,000 feet when it turned back toward Malaysia and the Gulf of Thailand," he said.

"If that was the case it would be burning much more fuel than normal at a low altitude because jet engines are efficient at high altitude but not low altitude," he said.

"Therefore simple logic is that if the aircraft was at or close to 10,000 feet it would have run out of fuel much earlier and glided a much shorter distance."

Captain Ross said there is no evidence the plane climbed back to its normal cruise altitude around 35,000 feet.

"I think people are over-thinking this thing and confusing themselves with complicated mathematics which are not guaranteed by anyone," he said.

The possibility a pilot or crew member hijacked the plane has been one of the most plausible theories about what happened to the plane.

Captain Ross said he firmly believes that whatever search funds remain should be used to search the area between Malaysia and the location of the aircraft parts that have been discovered.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/search-for-mh370-thousands-of-kilometres-off-target-australian-aviation-expert-20160616-gpkn7g.html#ixzz4C6Q3WvyX

Inclined to agree with Des's last but the trouble is the funds have basically been fried...

Also I am afraid that I'm in the "V" & "K" camp - see HERE - i.e. "it's a wrap" -


MTF...P2

[Peetwo]

Des Ross latest on MH370 via SMH

Search for MH370 thousands of kilometres off target: Australian aviation expert
Date June 17, 2016


Lindsay Murdoch
South-East Asia correspondent for Fairfax Media

A pilot searches for debris from MH370 in the Indian Ocean in the weeks after it disappeared.

• Suspected MH370 cabin debris found on island in Mauritius
  
• Possible MH370 debris found in South Africa
  

Bangkok:  An Australian aviation expert says he is convinced MH370 crashed into the sea west of the Malaysian mainland without proper control by the pilots who were incapacitated by a catastrophic event on board the Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777.

Desmond Ross, a commercial pilot with 25 years experience as an aviation and defence industry manager, told Fairfax Media that his "gut feeling and experience" tells him the southern Indian Ocean search has been conducted in the wrong area, thousands of kilometres from the crash site.

A curved piece of debris which may be part of the missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370, was found in Wartburg, South Africa, in March. Photo: AP

"I have said since day one that the aircraft was not under full control and was flying on a course set on the flight management system but with incapacitated pilots unable to make changes," he said.

"The aircraft descended to a low altitude because the pilots had set an emergency descent when a catastrophic event occurred on the aircraft, but they had been unable to complete their manoeuvre due to incapacitation."

The aircraft carrying 239 people inexplicably altered course from its scheduled flight path from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing while flying over the South China Sea in the early hours of March 8, 2014, turning back to fly across Malaysia.

Debris washed on to the Jamaique beach in Saint-Denis on Reunion. Photo: Reuters

Investigators say turning the plane around would have required typing a complicated code input into a flight management system, indicating either foul play or an event that caused the pilots to lose consciousness after they had done it.

Captain Ross, who conducted a review of Kuala Lumpur's international airport in 2005, said the search area was based on the "relatively flimsy science" of calculations by the British company Inmarsat, which the company itself said were not guaranteed to be accurate.

The search area was based on calculations using automatic "pings" to Inmarsat's satellite via a ground station and the aircraft after it vanished.


MH370 search map

Captain Ross said people seem to have forgotten the reports of eyewitnesses on an oil rig and yacht seeing a flaming object in the sky on the night of the disappearance, in an area west of Malaysia.

"The scientific theory could not allow these reports and they were discarded," he said.
New Zealander Mike McKay told authorities he saw what he believed to be a burning plane at high altitude when he was working on an oil rig off the Vietnamese coast on the night of the disappearance.


MH370 captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah.

"I believe I saw the Malaysian Airlines plane come down," he said.
A woman sailing a yacht between India and Australia in early March 2014 also told authorities she saw a plane surrounded by bright orange lights and with a tail of black smoke pass above her. 

Captain Ross pointed to reports that six Swiss people who were on board a cruise liner travelling between Perth and Singapore on March 12 2014 saw debris in the sea including life jackets, food trays, papers and pieces of polystyrene.


MH370 first officer Fariq Abdul Hamid.

He dismissed the argument by pundits that some aircraft parts that have been discovered on the beaches of Mozambique, Reunion Island and other east African locations prove the accuracy of the Indian Ocean search area.

"Well now – isn't it also true that these same parts may have come from somewhere much closer? How about a crash site to the west of Malaysia?"

The first debris confirmed to be from MH370 was a control panel called a flaperon that washed up on the French Indian Ocean island of Reunion in July 2015.

Other debris that almost certainly came from plane washed up in Mozambique in December 2015 and February this year.

In March, a section of an engine bearing a Rolls Royce logo washed up in Mossell Bay South Africa and the same month a fragment of an interior door panel was found on Rodrigues Island, Mauritius.

Captain Ross dismissed as "rubbish" the theory that a suicidal Malaysian pilot did a circuit around his home island before flying on for more than seven hours to ditch the plane in the Indian Ocean.

"The home island was beside a highly sensitive international '5 eyes' surveillance facility and the major Penang air force base, the home of the Royal Malaysian Air Force, and it is highly unlikely that the Malaysian military would have allowed such loitering of an unidentified aircraft in their airspace," he said.

"If it did, it shows their lack of interest in security or their incompetence in following unidentified traffic."

Investigators said in a report released in March last year there were "no behavioural signs of social isolation, change in interests or habits, self-neglect, drug or alcohol abuse of the captain, first officer and the cabin crew."

The report said investigators found nothing in the backgrounds of the plane's captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah or more junior pilot Fariq Abdul Hamid to suggest they would deliberately crash the plane.

Captain Ross said he is concerned about speculation that the plane "glided" from its cruise altitude further on a southerly course than thought when the engines quit before going into the water.

"We have already been told that military radar showed it descending to about 10,000 feet when it turned back toward Malaysia and the Gulf of Thailand," he said.

"If that was the case it would be burning much more fuel than normal at a low altitude because jet engines are efficient at high altitude but not low altitude," he said.

"Therefore simple logic is that if the aircraft was at or close to 10,000 feet it would have run out of fuel much earlier and glided a much shorter distance."

Captain Ross said there is no evidence the plane climbed back to its normal cruise altitude around 35,000 feet.

"I think people are over-thinking this thing and confusing themselves with complicated mathematics which are not guaranteed by anyone," he said.

The possibility a pilot or crew member hijacked the plane has been one of the most plausible theories about what happened to the plane.

Captain Ross said he firmly believes that whatever search funds remain should be used to search the area between Malaysia and the location of the aircraft parts that have been discovered.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/search-for-mh370-thousands-of-kilometres-off-target-australian-aviation-expert-20160616-gpkn7g.html#ixzz4C6Q3WvyX

Inclined to agree with Des's last but the trouble is the funds have basically been fried...

Also I am afraid that I'm in the "V" & "K" camp - see HERE - i.e. "it's a wrap" -  

Update courtesy Voice370 - via Malay Mail Online:

Search for MH370 must go on — Voice370

Monday June 20, 2016
09:57 AM GMT+8 
JUNE 20 —The families of passengers on board MH370 note with growing distress that the search for the plane in the extended search area off the West Coast of Australia has yielded nothing till date and there is very little of the search area left to be covered.

What is even more alarming to the families is the often repeated phrase that if no new credible evidence is found, the search will be terminated once the 120,000 square kilometres designated search area is fully searched. Independent experts and analysts (those not part of the official investigation) have repeatedly brought forward their analysis based on the limited information that has been made available in the public domain.

These independent experts have repeatedly raised questions about the preciseness of the official analysis, the end-of-flight scenarios, the search area, and the inconsistencies with other known information, including numerous recent debris sightings and eye witness accounts.

These, to the best of our knowledge have not been responded to satisfactorily or contested with more substantive data or analysis.

This continues to cast doubts on the chosen hypotheses that informs the search decisions, which to date despite the millions spent has yielded zero results. On the other hand pieces of flotsam have been recovered by private citizens, from hugely dispersed locations.

It has been many months since the first piece, the Flaperon, was picked up on Le Reunion Island and since, other pieces have been picked up in Mauritius, Madagascar and along the South Eastern Coast of Africa.

We wish to express our concern that till date, we have not heard of any organised plan to systematically comb these far dispersed localities.

This task is too important to be left to some chance discovery by private citizens such as locals/tourists, who may or may not be aware of potential aircraft debris Precious clues or evidence in the form of debris are at risk of being tampered with by human hands or lost forever.

This lack of initiative begs the question — how sincere are the relevant parties about solving this mystery?

While Malaysia and Australia have invested substantial sums in the effort thus far, we believe a shortage of funds should not be a reason to end the search. Voice370 urges Malaysia in collaboration with Australia and China to:

a. Review all analysis based on Inmarsat data, all simulations and other sources of data in light of the debris finds during 2015-16 off the coast of South / East Africa and recalibrate the search area;

b. Make public the complete Inmarsat raw data, radar data, all analysis including detailed assumptions, and all other facts that have informed the search thus far that is in the possession of any party that is part of the investigation and search, for a wider and public scrutiny, corroboration, and ultimately collaboration to bring the search to a successful conclusion;

c. Prevail upon the French authorities to make public the detailed forensic and biological examination of the flaperon and share its report with findings without any further delay or dilatory moves. We would like Malaysia to also specifically dispel any doubts as to the basis of identification of the flaperon with MH370 in light of doubts that have been raised by leaked excerpts of the French investigation on the flaperon that cast doubts on the its origins, the path it may have taken, the duration it may have been on (or in the seas);

d. Frame and disclose clear plans to search for debris along the coastlines of Indian Ocean Islands and South East Africa based on drift pattern studies without further delay.

e. While we acknowledge it may be impossible to deploy ground search parties across Mauritius, Madagascar and along the South Eastern Coast of Africa. Malaysia, which insisted on leading the search, could do more to prevent the permanent loss of debris and evidence thereof.

For example concerted and widespread information can be disseminated to the local population, especially fishermen, people living in these coastal areas and beach goers to be on a lookout for potential debris. Information on how to identify potential parts can be made available in the local press, printed leaflets, through social media and possibly through a webpage.

Web-based reporting and uploading of photos can be instituted. Local authorities can be enlisted to collect and hold these pieces. Local community support and social organisations can be encouraged to organise search activities. All these do not require significant funding.

It merely needs organisational skills. f. An international appeal for funds could be been made starting with the countries who have citizens on board. For example the world’s second biggest economy, China, which also has the most victims on board has the potential to contribute far more to the search efforts. The Dong Hai Jiu 101 can continue to be deployed in the search, with the ATSB continuing to provide ground support. Appeals could also be made to all member states of ICAO for funding.

g. It is inconceivable that wealthy nations and corporations that immensely benefit from civil aviation and the connectivity that it underscores would be unwilling to fund the continued search for MH370. Our limited understanding is that the cost of a single Boeing 777 (or equivalent commercial jet) far exceeds the amount committed to the search for MH370 thus far. We question the sincerity of Malaysia, the principal country charged with the investigation into MH370 insofar as its efforts to mobilise nations to come forward and fund continuation of the search.

h. That being said we suggest that Boeing be urged to contribute to the search. For instance in the case of AF447, in which very similar underwater searches were carried out, Airbus Industries contributed funds towards the search effort.

Why is Boeing not contributing financially? Is the providing of some independent technical information alone sufficient? Or is it more beneficial for Boeing if this plane were to remain undiscovered?

While the heroic efforts of the search crew braving the seas and their support establishment on shore, managed by the ATSB, have our appreciation and gratitude, the families, whose lives have remained in limbo for over 800 days, giving up on the search is not an option.

The search for the plane and the truth of what happened is vital to look ahead and move on. A decision to end the search is a cruel response to a desperate human crisis. For the general public, the winding down of the search conveys a crude message that financial considerations trump the flyer’s safety and security. The Search Must Go On.

* Voice370 is the official association for families of passengers and crew onboard Flight MH370.

** This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail Online.

- See more at: http://www.themalaymailonline.com/what-y...IGr1j.dpuf

MTF...P2

[BugsyM]

<<<<<<JUNE 20 —The families of passengers on board MH370 note with growing distress that the search for the plane in the extended search area off the West Coast of Australia has yielded nothing till date and there is very little of the search area left to be covered.

What is even more alarming to the families is the often repeated phrase that if no new credible evidence is found, the search will be terminated once the 120,000 square kilometres designated search area is fully searched. Independent experts and analysts (those not part of the official investigation) have repeatedly brought forward their analysis based on the limited information that has been made available in the public domain.

These independent experts have repeatedly raised questions about the preciseness of the official analysis, the end-of-flight scenarios, the search area, and the inconsistencies with other known information, including numerous recent debris sightings and eye witness accounts.

These, to the best of our knowledge have not been responded to satisfactorily or contested with more substantive data or analysis.

This continues to cast doubts on the chosen hypotheses that informs the search decisions, which to date despite the millions spent has yielded zero results. On the other hand pieces of flotsam have been recovered by private citizens, from hugely dispersed locations.


This lack of initiative begs the question — how sincere are the relevant parties about solving this mystery?

While Malaysia and Australia have invested substantial sums in the effort thus far, we believe a shortage of funds should not be a reason to end the search. Voice370 urges Malaysia in collaboration with Australia and China to:

a. Review all analysis based on Inmarsat data, all simulations and other sources of data in light of the debris finds during 2015-16 off the coast of South / East Africa and recalibrate the search area;

b. Make public the complete Inmarsat raw data, radar data, all analysis including detailed assumptions, and all other facts that have informed the search thus far that is in the possession of any party that is part of the investigation and search, for a wider and public scrutiny, corroboration, and ultimately collaboration to bring the search to a successful conclusion;


d. Frame and disclose clear plans to search for debris along the coastlines of Indian Ocean Islands and South East Africa based on drift pattern studies without further delay.

e. While we acknowledge it may be impossible to deploy ground search parties across Mauritius, Madagascar and along the South Eastern Coast of Africa. Malaysia, which insisted on leading the search, could do more to prevent the permanent loss of debris and evidence thereof.


h. That being said we suggest that Boeing be urged to contribute to the search. For instance in the case of AF447, in which very similar underwater searches were carried out, Airbus Industries contributed funds towards the search effort.

Why is Boeing not contributing financially? Is the providing of some independent technical information alone sufficient? Or is it more beneficial for Boeing if this plane were to remain undiscovered?


The search for the plane and the truth of what happened is vital to look ahead and move on. A decision to end the search is a cruel response to a desperate human crisis. For the general public, the winding down of the search conveys a crude message that financial considerations trump the flyer’s safety and security. The Search Must Go On.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Greetings all, sorry Ive been absent, but have been catching up on reading this forum. I feel I need to put my 2 pennies worth into this discussion.

It has been a crock from the get go, I mean seriusly no real investigators have been doing much in the form of investigating or reporting any facts. All that comes out of the malays media is hogwash and BS. They keep repeating old stories, with the wrong pictures on them. I mean WTF is really going on, keeping people confused and arguing seems to be the goal of whoever is in charge of this.

The families deserve to know what happened. It is pretty sad to know that we do now know this plane crashed (thanks to regular citizens for their searches and finds) but the where is the big question. Malay lied so much in the beginning, I now believe they are silent because they have dug themselves in such a big hole, there is no way out for the lying scumbags.

Even today the headlines read about more items discovered on Madagascar, with a few plane parts discovered along with many other personal items. So after all these finds on all these islands over there, Reunion, Mauritis, Madagascar, Mozambique/SA, yet NOT one person leading this investigation will go to these places themselves and search, why the hell is that???? It does appear as though they don't want to find it doesn't it????

To discontinue this search is NOT in the best interest of the families nor is it to the general flying public. What really happened that night? Its been bloody hell obvious that some kind of obfuscation took place, whether it was a cover up of a screw up or something worse. There are way to many conspiracy theories out there now, and that is thanks to the official narrative (none). Its been a shitshow of disinformation and redacted statements, false statements from the start.

All those reports in the beginning, eye witnesses, vietnam reports of finding debris, whacky plane maneuvers, all the lies told and now seem to have been forgotten and ignored. No this search has to continue, I hope that China will step up and keep it going and listen to the people (regular people who've been searching) and move the search north. I know my 2 pennies ain't worth much, but giving up now is just not an option.

Bugsy

[Kharon]

The willing accomplice.

Bugsy, having tuppence has always been better than a hole in your pocket.  Without tuppence, you’re beggared; which, IMO, is exactly where the families and the aviation industry are.  There are many reasons why this aircraft needs to be found but there are even more reasons again to discover who, why and how.  

A honest government would want to know the root cause of an incident which has almost bankrupted a national flag carrier.  Malaysia has a significant investment in the carrier, both financial and in national pride, not to mention the effect on their economy. The question which must be considered is why the Malaysian government has not moved heaven and earth and been seen to do that, in order to locate the aircraft.  Looking at the whole picture from a long way back, it is clear that only a minimum of effort has been expended.  Only enough to give the appearance of an effort, a showcase, a magicians smoke and mirrors show.

I don’t believe it would cost a great deal to arrange a ‘conference’ of qualified, independent experts, ‘workshop’ if you like.  Swear them all to secrecy if you must then give them unfettered, unlimited access to all, and do mean all, the available data and investigation results.  If you included a crack criminal investigative team from say the USA and UK alongside a team of those from the more clandestine agencies and turned them loose, I believe there would answers to unasked questions in double quick time.  Then you may deploy your search and recovery experts.  Had the ‘conference’ been oversighted by say the UN or ICAO then the percentage chances of finding the wreckage would, exponentially increase.

As thing stand when the pantomime is the SIO is over the whole episode will be covered  with a filthy blanket and buried in an unmarked paupers grave.  A victim of incompetence or casualty of an uncaring, cynical government is a question which will fade from public consideration and interest as time passes by.

At the risk of repeating myself – I’ll say it again; someone, somewhere knows what really happened and why.  Should a government, any government, be privy to that information then by association and through silence, they must be considered complicit in the crime.      

It’s a terrible thing to loose lives in an aircraft accident; but it’s a tragedy when those waiting for news must give up all hope of discovering why their loved ones are never coming home.  Where’s our aircraft? - Don’t know, it just disappeared.  Is that really a good enough answer; I don’t believe it is.

Selah.

[BugsyM]

<<<<<kharon wrote:

At the risk of repeating myself – I’ll say it again; someone, somewhere knows what really happened and why.  Should a government, any government, be privy to that information then by association and through silence, they must be considered complicit in the crime.      

It’s a terrible thing to loose lives in an aircraft accident; but it’s a tragedy when those waiting for news must give up all hope of discovering why their loved ones are never coming home.  Where’s our aircraft? - Don’t know, it just disappeared.  Is that really a good enough answer; I don’t believe it is.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

In repeating yourself, I agree that someone does know what happened, there's no doubt in my mind whatsoever!!! After all the false and redacted statements from the beginning, leaves me to believe this is the case.

There have been lots of posts (old links) popping up on twitter and other message boards, and reminding me of events that took place which now have been totally forgotten, why? All the debris found in the Maldives was disregarded and tossed out or burnt in the trash. Oh but the location doesn't fit with the data.....well I got two words for the data..... Bull Crap!!!!

Sorry to be blunt, but there is no excuse for the farce of what it supposed to be an investigation. The fact that the search continues in the far SIO when nothing but the so called data indicates it to be there, an unknown science at that. All the debris that has turned up in the maldives, Reunion and islands all over in the west side of indian ocean and not one idea of searching elsewhere because of the data....and the data alone.

I do agree that it just disappeared is an unacceptable answer, the families need to know why. The world needs to know why, so that it can never happen again.

Bugsy

[ventus45]

The willing accomplice.

Bugsy, having tuppence has always been better than a hole in your pocket.  Without tuppence, you’re beggared; which, IMO, is exactly where the families and the aviation industry are.  There are many reasons why this aircraft needs to be found but there are even more reasons again to discover who, why and how.  

............................

Looking at the whole picture from a long way back, it is clear that only a minimum of effort has been expended.  Only enough to give the appearance of an effort, a showcase, a magicians smoke and mirrors show.

I don’t believe it would cost a great deal to arrange a ‘conference’ of qualified, independent experts, ‘workshop’ if you like.  Swear them all to secrecy if you must then give them unfettered, unlimited access to all, and do mean all, the available data and investigation results.  If you included a crack criminal investigative team from say the USA and UK alongside a team of those from the more clandestine agencies and turned them loose, I believe there would answers to unasked questions in double quick time.  Then you may deploy your search and recovery experts.  Had the ‘conference’ been oversighted by say the UN or ICAO then the percentage chances of finding the wreckage would, exponentially increase.

As thing stand when the pantomime is the SIO is over the whole episode will be covered  with a filthy blanket and buried in an unmarked paupers grave.  A victim of incompetence or casualty of an uncaring, cynical government is a question which will fade from public consideration and interest as time passes by.

At the risk of repeating myself – I’ll say it again; someone, somewhere knows what really happened and why.  Should a government, any government, be privy to that information then by association and through silence, they must be considered complicit in the crime.      

Thruppence worth - if you please ?

On the subject of "The willing accomplice".
Answer one question:-
Why was "Angus" enlisted to front-up the JACC ?

On the subject of "The Conference".
It is never going to happen.
No government wants it to happen.
No government would "allow" it to happen.
But a good "author" might run with it.

As thing stand when the pantomime is the SIO is over the whole episode will be covered  with a filthy blanket and buried in an unmarked paupers grave.

The desired outcome.

A victim of incompetence or casualty of an uncaring, cynical government is a question which will fade from public consideration and interest as time passes by.

The intended (from the beginning) outcome of "multiple" uncaring, cynical government(s).

Beaker and Murky will probably get a couple of gongs, "some-time" down the track.

[Peetwo]

DOI No.11?? ( DOI - debris of inconvenience)

Ben S - "..If Malaysia wants the world to forget missing jet MH370 and move on, discoveries like this possible section of its wing are exceedingly inconvenient..."

So in a week we have had:

Update 21/06/16 - via news.com.au:

Officials mull over MH370 search future
June 21, 2016 7:06pm

AAP

Update 22/06/16 - In an update to the News Corp article (above):

Possible MH370 debris left to languish in Madagascar
June 22, 2016 12:00am
Robyn Ironside

This bit...

...A spokesman for the Australian Transport Safety Bureau confirmed retrieval and analysis of evidence such as possible debris was the responsibility of the Government of Malaysia.


“The debris will need to be examined to ascertain its origin,” said the spokesman.


“Australia stands ready to assist Malaysia with that as required.”


Inquiries to Malaysia’s Minister of Transport were not answered...

  This could be the first real sign of a true debris field and yet the Malaysians won't even approve a Malaysian member of the JIT team to take claim of the possible debris items - UDB!

Which was followed up by PT with this: Boeing says debris found on Kangaroo Island not from MH370


And now overnight on twitter we get this: Tanzania: Flight debris found in Pemba Island
- Suspected to be from missing flight #MH370 | http://goo.gl/riu3Nf

Link for JAMIIFORUMS - http://www.jamiiforums.com/threads/bawa-...a.1070044/

And again from Ben at Planetalking...

This could be the largest piece of MH370 yet found
If Malaysia wants the world to forget missing jet MH370 and move on, discoveries like this possible section of its wing are exceedingly inconvenient

Ben Sandilands

A large piece of what may have been the wing of missing flight MH370 has been found on Pemba Island, Tanzania.

The discovery is reported on the Jamii Forums site.

Few details are given, but the images posted make it an object of strong interest.


Related
[/url]Everything MH370 from Plane Talking
[url=http://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalking/mh370]
The discovery comes as Malaysia’s authorities are reported to have become indifferent to the rising numbers of potential fragments of the lost Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777-200ER being brought to the attention of the media and authorities in Madagascar and elsewhere.

Those objects include personal items possibly belonging to the 239 people who were on board MH370 when it vanished soon after taking off from Kuala Lumpur for Beijing on March 8, 2014.

Malaysia has never addressed concerns over its official actions on the night of the flight’s disappearance, nor its misleading advice to early searchers to look further into the South China Sea or across central Asia, contrary to advice given to the government that the jet has been recorded as turning westwards off its filed flight path when it was over the Gulf of Thailand.

Australia has never officially acknowledged asking any questions of the Malaysian authorities over these issues, and has instead managed the subsequent surface and then ocean floor searches of parts of the south Indian Ocean at the direction of Kuala Lumpur and with the very recent assistance of China.

Less than 15,000 square kilometers remain to be sonar scanned of the 120,000 square kilometers of the ocean floor designated as a search zone for the heavy, sunk wreckage of the jet.

That search could be concluded sometime in August, depending on the wild sea state of the southern Indian Ocean in winter, and Malaysia, China and Australia have recently reiterated a long standing decision to end the search at that stage unless there is a prior discovery or a new credible information concerning the course flown by the jet prior to it running out of fuel and crashing.

Further discoveries of major pieces of wreckage or confirmed personal possessions will make the abandonment of the sea floor search more difficult to justify to the public, and add to doubts about the often contradictory official narratives from Kuala Lumpur.

Hmm...wonder if they cringe in KL every time an MH370 newsflash comes across their IPAD/Smart Phone screens...   


MTF...P2

[BugsyM]

<<<<<quoted.....If Malaysia wants the world to forget missing jet MH370 and move on, discoveries like this possible section of its wing are exceedingly inconvenient..."[/b][/i][/color]

  This could be the first real sign of a true debris field and yet the Malaysians won't even approve a Malaysian member of the JIT team to take claim of the possible debris items - UDB!

Malaysia has never addressed concerns over its official actions on the night of the flight’s disappearance, nor its misleading advice to early searchers to look further into the South China Sea or across central Asia, contrary to advice given to the government that the jet has been recorded as turning westwards off its filed flight path when it was over the Gulf of Thailand.

Hmm...wonder if they cringe in KL every time an MH370 newsflash comes across their IPAD/Smart Phone screens...   
MTF...P2 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>


How can they just ignore all this debris??? Question of the hour/century???? This latest piece today reported in Tanzania CANNOT be ignored. Malaysia has become lazy and obvious not even picking up other debris found to identify or verify = obfuscation 100%

Who the hell is running this investigation, I think that ICAO needs to take over and run this investigation or someone in authority, its obvious Malaysia couldn't find their arse in the sunshine nevermind a plane disappearing. Corruption runs rampant there/

Sad state of affairs that families still suffering with real no closure as to what happened in spite of all this debris being found. This is something the world cannot ignore even if Malaysia wishes it to just go away. It CAN'T be ignored, the truth needs to be told, who will do that. Appears to be regular citizens who only care about this case and no one in a real official capacity seems to give a crap about it. WTH.

The USA is in shambles due to their upcoming election which is a farce, so obviously they will not step up, so someone needs to take the bull by the horns and stop the horse-dung being flung with lack of investigating. Its obvious plane did NOT crash in SIO, but possibly further north, why? how? who? these questions need to be answered or it may not be safe to fly over in that area or anywhere.

That's it, enough said before I get to swearing, getting real ticked off, can't imagine what families are going through.

Bugsy

[mh370docs]

Request for Tender for provision for services relating to the search for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370
RFT No. 570-04
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/d...Search.pdf

Includes Statement of Requirements, KPIs, Pricing Models

[Kharon]

A ‘Harry Houdini’ of a document which I believe the Senate Standing committee have briefly examined at Estimates. There is considerable interest in the way Australian aviation safety organisations, like the ASA, ATSB and CASA set about arranging contracts and hiring consultants. This blasted eight week run up an election has robbed the public of useful working time for politicians and there will be another hiatus of similar duration once the dust settles. Then depending on who wins, it will take more time again before anything productive comes out of the government. Even then, we must consider if the Estimates committee will continue their investigation of ‘matters contractual’; or, even consider the results of audits completed.

Such is the pace of response to anything; let alone the spending of tax payer billions. I would not be holding my breath waiting for an analysis of anything Australia had to do with 370. I would expect that any questions surrounding the search contract have little chance of being asked and even less chance of being answered. Lucky country, ain’t we?

[Peetwo]

 
Request for Tender for provision for services relating to the search for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370
RFT No. 570-04
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/d...Search.pdf

Includes Statement of Requirements, KPIs, Pricing Models

A ‘Harry Houdini’ of a document which I believe the Senate Standing committee have briefly examined at Estimates.  There is considerable interest in the way Australian aviation safety organisations, like the ASA, ATSB and CASA set about arranging contracts and hiring consultants. This blasted eight week run up an election has robbed the public of useful working time for politicians and there will be another hiatus of similar duration once the dust settles.  Then depending on who wins, it will take more time again before anything productive comes out of the government.  Even then, we must consider if the Estimates committee will continue their investigation of ‘matters contractual’; or, even consider the results of audits completed.  

Such is the pace of response to anything; let alone the spending of tax payer billions.   I would not be holding my breath waiting for an analysis of anything Australia had to do with 370. I would expect that any questions surrounding the search contract have little chance of being asked and even less chance of being answered.  Lucky country, ain’t we?

Welcome mh370doc, was hoping you might expand on your first post??

I am not sure if you are aware but their was a redacted version of the end result of that MH370 tender encompassed within the answer to a 'question on notice' from the Supplementary Estimates 19 October 2015: AQON 08ATSB

While on that RFT document some of the obligations under Schedule 1 are interesting, for example:

..3.2

The Contractor will be able to complete a search of the entire Search Area within 300 days of commencement of the search.

Most Important

Tenderer should provide information about the method to be used to search the Search Area within the timeframe, including expected coverage, on average, per day. The tenderer will have to allow for such things as weather, vessel port calls and equipment downtime for maintenance. The tenderer will provide information as to how scheduling for these will be planned and managed. The tenderer should provide an explanation of how the process will ensure that all areas in the Search Area will be searched.

Tenderer should provide information as to how their assets will be organised and managed to complete the search of the Search Area within the timeframe...

 However considering the "K" post and from past experience of the bureaucratic RFT or regulatory reform process here in Oz, there will be so many weasel-worded clauses embedded in that RFT and the contract itself, that there will be no possible legal ramifications if by definition the Commonwealth or Fugro breach certain terms of the original RFT/contract.    
Please also remember that this was overseen by a bureaucratic Muppet fully versed in obfuscation through legislative interpretation and other devious means e.g. Sale of Sydney international airport.


MTF..P2

[mh370docs]

Welcome mh370doc, was hoping you might expand on your first post??

MTF..P2

I discovered that document (among many others) during my research process that involves advanced searches on Google and programmatic access to social networks.
Among other documents/info I found publicly available:
- complete passengers list (with seat numbers) marked as confidential/private.
- all the tweets for days March 7/8 2014 relative to important search queries (mh370, mas370, malaysia airlines, lost plane)

[BugsyM]

The muppet show is almost over.....real sad though that the families will not get closure. I can't fathom why Malaysia govt doesn't care, its obvious how they bungled it from the start, like a hot potato game they just couldn't wait to dump it in someone else's lap. The fact that they have done zilch-zero-zippo since is beyond me. If the search is ended soon, will they NOT have to have a final report on this whole bungled case. The latest piece of debris found in Tanzania is most likely a piece of the wing, will they actually go and retrieve that piece to examine it, or will it sit in storage until like forever. They really do not want to find this plane do they? Shame that ICAO allows this garbage to happen, safety of aviation obviously isn't a priority, real sad and scary shit too.

[Peetwo]

Request for Tender for provision for services relating to the search for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370
RFT No. 570-04
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/d...Search.pdf

Includes Statement of Requirements, KPIs, Pricing Models

Welcome mh370doc, was hoping you might expand on your first post??

MTF..P2

I discovered that document (among many others) during my research process that involves advanced searches on Google and programmatic access to social networks.
Among other documents/info I found publicly available:
- complete passengers list (with seat numbers) marked as confidential/private.
- all the tweets for days March 7/8 2014 relative to important search queries (mh370, mas370, malaysia airlines, lost plane)

The muppet show is almost over.....real sad though that the families will not get closure.  I can't fathom why Malaysia govt doesn't care, its obvious how they bungled it from the start, like a hot potato game they just couldn't wait to dump it in someone else's lap.  The fact that they have done zilch-zero-zippo since is beyond me.  If the search is ended soon, will they NOT have to have a final report on this whole bungled case.  The latest piece of debris found in Tanzania is most likely a piece of the wing, will they actually go and retrieve that piece to examine it, or will it sit in storage until like forever.  They really do not want to find this plane do they? Shame that ICAO allows this garbage to happen, safety of aviation obviously isn't a priority, real sad and scary shit too.

Sunday Matinee - MH370 Muppet Show

I guess most MH370 followers have seen the latest bollocks statement from the Malaysian Transport Minister Liow, if not here is the short version courtesy of 'The Star' (or you can go to the link provided to view the video interview with Liow.
):

Liow: Plane debris found in Tanzania being verified for MH370
by beh yuen hui

SERI KEMBANGAN: A piece of plane debris found in Tanzania will be checked to determine if it is from the missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.

Transport Minister Datuk Seri Liow Tiong Lai said the fragment is believed to be the biggest piece of debris linked to the aircraft retrieved from the Indian Ocean so far.

"We have to first confirm if it belongs to a Boeing 777 airplane. If so, we will send a team to Tanzania to check further," he told reporters after opening the 9th Hui Zhou World Convention at Wisma Huazong here on Saturday.

Liow said earlier discoveries of several bags, including one with an "Angry Bird" picture, and other items found in Madagascar were not connected to MH370.

The flight with 227 passengers and 12 crew went missing en route to Beijing after taking off from KL International Airport in March, 2014.

Not exactly sure how, without any formal forensic analysis, this smug bugger can deduce from 1000s of kilometres away, that the bags etc. are definitely not associated with MH370?? Unless of course they have a comprehensive photographic record of all luggage etc. that was stowed on-board MH370 - yeah right and pigs might fly; or perhaps Liow knows those items were not part of the 'planted' debris inventory list...
Bugsy - "..Shame that ICAO allows this garbage to happen, safety of aviation obviously isn't a priority, real sad and scary shit too..."

Going off the sham that is aviation safety administration in this country - see HERE - that ICAO also seems to not give a toss about, the chances of ICAO slapping Malaysia with anything more than a wet piece of lettuce is unfortunately pure fantasy.

By the way Bugsy, it was my understanding that the 'Final Report' is contingent on the outcome of the MH370 SIO search i.e. they have to wait till it is completed...


MTF...P2

[Peetwo]

Sunday Matinee - MH370 Muppet Show

I guess most MH370 followers have seen the latest bollocks statement from the Malaysian Transport Minister Liow, if not here is the short version courtesy of 'The Star' (or you can go to the link provided to view the video interview with Liow.
):

Liow: Plane debris found in Tanzania being verified for MH370
by beh yuen hui

SERI KEMBANGAN: A piece of plane debris found in Tanzania will be checked to determine if it is from the missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.

Transport Minister Datuk Seri Liow Tiong Lai said the fragment is believed to be the biggest piece of debris linked to the aircraft retrieved from the Indian Ocean so far.

"We have to first confirm if it belongs to a Boeing 777 airplane. If so, we will send a team to Tanzania to check further," he told reporters after opening the 9th Hui Zhou World Convention at Wisma Huazong here on Saturday.

Liow said earlier discoveries of several bags, including one with an "Angry Bird" picture, and other items found in Madagascar were not connected to MH370.

The flight with 227 passengers and 12 crew went missing en route to Beijing after taking off from KL International Airport in March, 2014.

Not exactly sure how, without any formal forensic analysis, this smug bugger can deduce from 1000s of kilometres away, that the bags etc. are definitely not associated with MH370?? Unless of course they have a comprehensive photographic record of all luggage etc. that was stowed on-board MH370 - yeah right and pigs might fly; or perhaps Liow knows those items were not part of the 'planted' debris inventory list...
Bugsy - "..Shame that ICAO allows this garbage to happen, safety of aviation obviously isn't a priority, real sad and scary shit too..."

Going off the sham that is aviation safety administration in this country - see HERE - that ICAO also seems to not give a toss about, the chances of ICAO slapping Malaysia with anything more than a wet piece of lettuce is unfortunately pure fantasy.

By the way Bugsy, it was my understanding that the 'Final Report' is contingent on the outcome of the MH370 SIO search i.e. they have to wait till it is completed...

Update: Take a bow ASGA -

OPEN LETTER TO YB DATO' SERI LIOW TIONG LAI - MINISTER OF TRANSPORT, MALAYSIA
26th June 2016                                                                                                                                    “OPEN LETTER”
 
YB Dato' Seri Liow Tiong Lai
Minister of Transport, Malaysia
Level 10, No.26, Jalan Tun Hussein , Precint 4,
Federal Government Administrative Centre
62100 Putrajaya, Malaysia.
 
 
Dear YB Dato Seri Liow
 
The Aircrash Support Group Australia (ASGA) is a legitimate Family Association for the Australian Victims and Families of Victims of Aviation Tragedies, as defined and recognized by ICAO, Policy Document Number 9998.  As such, we formally request your co-operation and assistance in regard to the following matter.

Recently, we have been made aware of your comments made to the media in regard to personal effects discovered on the same small section of Madagascan coastline as 5 pieces of potential aircraft debris (including the quite obvious in-flight entertainment system frame), where you state categorically that there is absolutely no connection between these personal items found and missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.  To be frank, your comments are extremely concerning, particularly considering Malaysia is yet to send a representative to collect the potential aircraft debris, let alone inspect or retrieve the personal items.

If the potential aircraft debris does in-fact turn out to be from the missing aircraft, then as a Member State of ICAO, Malaysia has obligations under the Family Assistance Code to thoroughly investigate the personal effects, and, potentially, return them to the Next of Kin.  ASGA understands that your Office has cancelled the collection of these items not once, but twice; and now nearly a month has passed.  We do not find this “foot dragging” behaviour acceptable on any level and we certainly do not find it in accord with the intent of the Family Assistance Code.

Therefore ASGA and MH370 Families now request that you provide full and total public transparency in regard to any and all “testing” you claim has been undertaken on these personal items to make your determination;   that includes, but is not limited to: 
    

• The Authority/Body/Organization/Company that undertook the testing.
  
• The date and location that the testing was undertaken.
  
• The exact type of testing undertaken.
  
• A copy of the original results of any and all testing undertaken on these items.
  

 
Furthermore, ASGA also requests that you advise of, and stick to, a firm date that the potential aircraft debris will be collected from the Madagascan Authorities and advise how and who will investigate it.

In regard to the personal effects, we formally request that, if you maintain your position that they are of no relation to MH370, then you make immediate arrangements for the items to be sent to ASGA’s Perth Office for our own investigations and future safe storage. 
 
ASGA thanks you for your co-operation in these matters and trusts you will have no difficulty in complying with our requests. 
 
We look forward to your prompt response and early receipt of the information as requested.
 
Yours sincerely
 
 
Sheryl Keen
Chairperson
Aircrash Support Group Australia

Could not have put it better myself -

ASGA Official Statement MH-370



THE AIRCRASH SUPPORT GROUP AUSTRALIA (ASGA) BELIEVES IT IS TIME FOR ALL MEMBER STATES TO PETITION THE INTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION (ICAO) TO FORM A COMMITTEE TO TAKE THE INVESTIGATION FORWARD; FURTHERMORE, THAT AN INTERNATIONAL FUND SHOULD BE ESTABLISHED TO SUPPORT THE SEARCH.
 
WE HAVE SPENT LESS THAN THE COST OF ONE MILITARY AIRCRAFT ON THE SEARCH AND ASK
"WHAT A HUMAN LIFE IS WORTH THESE DAYS?"
 
PLEASE WRITE TO YOUR COUNTRY'S GOVERNMENT REPRESENTATIVE AND URGE THEM TO MAKE THIS APPROACH.

UNPRECEDENTED TIMES CALL FOR UNPRECEDENTED MEASURES.
 
WITH THE AUSTRALIAN UNDERWATER SEARCH DUE TO END SOON, THE TIME TO ACT FOR THE FUTURE IS NOW!!!

MTF...P2

[Peetwo]

Bugsy - "..Shame that ICAO allows this garbage to happen, safety of aviation obviously isn't a priority, real sad and scary shit too..."

Going off the sham that is aviation safety administration in this country - see HERE - that ICAO also seems to not give a toss about, the chances of ICAO slapping Malaysia with anything more than a wet piece of lettuce is unfortunately pure fantasy.

Take a bow ASGA -

OPEN LETTER TO YB DATO' SERI LIOW TIONG LAI - MINISTER OF TRANSPORT, MALAYSIA

ASGA Official Statement MH-370



THE AIRCRASH SUPPORT GROUP AUSTRALIA (ASGA) BELIEVES IT IS TIME FOR ALL MEMBER STATES TO PETITION THE INTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION (ICAO) TO FORM A COMMITTEE TO TAKE THE INVESTIGATION FORWARD; FURTHERMORE, THAT AN INTERNATIONAL FUND SHOULD BE ESTABLISHED TO SUPPORT THE SEARCH.
 
WE HAVE SPENT LESS THAN THE COST OF ONE MILITARY AIRCRAFT ON THE SEARCH AND ASK
"WHAT A HUMAN LIFE IS WORTH THESE DAYS?"
 
PLEASE WRITE TO YOUR COUNTRY'S GOVERNMENT REPRESENTATIVE AND URGE THEM TO MAKE THIS APPROACH.

UNPRECEDENTED TIMES CALL FOR UNPRECEDENTED MEASURES.
 
WITH THE AUSTRALIAN UNDERWATER SEARCH DUE TO END SOON, THE TIME TO ACT FOR THE FUTURE IS NOW!!!

Further update: KS Narendran (via the Hindu) on why it is time for ICAO to act

The persisting mystery of MH370
Updated: June 28, 2016 00:33 IST | K.S. Narendran



With every sweep of the ocean floor, there is growing pessimism about the outcome of the search for the missing Malaysian Airlines flight. | AP

Why it’s now time for the International Civil Aviation Organisation to act.

It is over 800 days since Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 disappeared. Pieces of debris, suspected to be from the aircraft, have lain in Madagascar for over three weeks now, along with more than a dozen personal belongings found on the same beach where these were found. They remain unclaimed by Malaysia, the country leading the investigation into the disappearance.

MH370 with 239 passengers and crew simply vanished in the early hours of March 8, 2014, leaving governments and the public the world over perplexed, and the passengers’ families anguished. Based on limited data reported to be available, it was concluded that the flight ended somewhere in the southern Indian Ocean, and that the passengers and crew were presumed dead. While Malaysia has been responsible for the overall investigation, Australia is leading the search in the designated search zone, to its west, in the Indian Ocean. The initial search area of 60,000 sq km identified in 2014 was extended and now it spans a total area of 120,000 sq km. The underwater search spread over the last 15 months or so has yielded rich data on topography under the sea but no signs of the aircraft. Just about 15,000 sq km remain to be searched and this is expected to be completed in the next two to three months.

With every sweep of the ocean floor, there is growing pessimism about the outcome of the search, and questions are already being raised about the correctness of the search zone. And there is a growing din to ensure that Malaysia stays committed to the search and investigation well beyond the 120,000-sq km area.

In recent months, notably since the first piece of debris, the flaperon, was located in July 2015 on Le Reunion island off Madagascar, thousands of kilometres from the designated search area, Malaysia’s response to the debris findings has invited harsh criticism for its premature confirmation of it being from MH370 in the case of the flaperon, and inexplicable tardiness in securing those found in the recent weeks and in conveying them for further analysis.

Five pieces of debris found by Blaine Alan Gibson, what look like aircraft parts based on photographs that have been widely circulated, have remained in Madagascar waiting to be claimed by Malaysia. It has been reported that a Malaysian official deputed to secure the items has had his trip cancelled twice for reasons not known. Furthermore, it has just been reported that Malaysia’s Transport Minister has ruled out any connection between the personal belongings found on Riake Beach (the same beach where the other five pieces were found). Both these facts are astounding and convey a sense that Malaysia is less than sincere about its professed commitment to the search and investigation.

There is no word from Malaysia on why it should take weeks rather than days to secure the debris and put it through a thorough analysis. This is inspite of the glare of the media, which have reported these finds extensively, and experts giving the opinion that the finds are certainly worthy of closer examination. Time is of the essence, and one would have expected a government whose moves are watched closely and criticised routinely, to have acted with alacrity. One wonders if this government is impervious to any critique or suggestion, or marches to a different time-scale towards goals that are odds with what it has made public.

The most shocking of them all is the assertion by the Malaysian Transport Minister dismissing any relevance for the personal belongings found on the Riake Beach, without basis or due process. These items, just by the fact of being found in the vicinity of other debris finds, should automatically be of interest. That is but common sense. But as mentioned earlier, these have not even been lifted from Madagascar, and no Malaysian official has even physically seen or taken custody of it yet. In the normal course, one would expect that they will be examined, made available to families to examine and stake a claim if positively identified, and be matched with CCTV footage at the Kuala Lumpur International Airport that is available with the government. Such a course will be both sensible and sensitive to the feelings of the passengers’ families, which have struggled to make sense of the tragedy that has befallen them.

Is the Malaysian government serious at all about investigating it thoroughly, acting professionally and complying with commitments under international conventions, and fulfilling promises to the families? Its failure to act expeditiously feeds suspicions about its intentions: that it perhaps hopes to bring this matter to a quiet end. It brings back to memory the bungling that characterised the initial weeks after the aircraft went missing, the unwillingness to own up any responsibility for the disappearance, and inferences of incompetence.

Given that the search in the Indian Ocean is winding down, and the Malaysian government has made public more than once that the search will not be extended if the present search area yields nothing, we may well be facing the prospect of a final report on the investigation that offers no answers. The argument that funds have dried up betrays a lack of will. This is likely to retain the air of mystery about what really happened to MH370. Importantly, it will allow an uneasiness and nagging doubts about safe air travel to fester.

In light of the bona fides and the competence of Malaysia being in question besides the utter lack of any sign that the multi-member investigation team is vested with enough resources and independence to carry forward the investigation under the stewardship of Malaysia, it is important that the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) steps in to constitute an ‘independent’ investigation team of experts who are suitably empowered and funded adequately to carry out its functions with a mandate to assess all available evidence related to MH370, and chart the course of the investigation from here on. The ICAO has powers to act thus and it is time that the body steps in more visibly and directly oversees the search for MH370 and the truth.

It is time for air passengers from various nationalities: parliamentarians, industry captains, non-profit organisations, self employed, artists… people from all walks of life, to urge the ICAO through their country’s representative to accord due priority to this issue in the larger public interest. While it is easy to be lulled by the thought that air travel is the safest mode of travel because deaths per million passenger miles is the lowest, these mean nothing when you consider the prospect that it might be you who goes missing when the next time a plane is allowed to vanish into thin air.

(The author’s wife, Chandrika Sharma, was on MH370. As Executive Secretary of the International Collective in Support of Fish Workers, she was on her way to Ulan Bator, Mongolia to attend an FAO conference. E-mail: ks.narendran@gmail.com)

Seems there is a growing caucus for ICAO to act - the question is but will they??

Fang Liu

Dr. Fang Liu is the Secretary General of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), having been appointed for a three-year term beginning August 2015.

Prior to her appointment as Secretary General, Dr. Liu served for eight years as the Director of ICAO’s Bureau of Administration and Services (ADB). During her tenure, she contributed extensively to ICAO’s Senior Management Group and also participated in the High-Level Committee on Management within the United Nations common system. She transformed the administration of ICAO by enhancing efficiencies, improving governance, and providing effective management and support in areas such as human resources, language services, and conference and information technology services.

Prior to joining ICAO, Dr. Liu served the General Administration of Civil Aviation of China (CAAC), where over the course of twenty years she successively held the posts of Legal Counsel, Deputy Director, Director and Deputy Director General, Department of International Affairs and Cooperation. She was responsible for China’s international air transport policy and regulations, bilateral and multilateral relations with international and regional organizations including ICAO, the World Trade Organization, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the European Union, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

During her career with the CAAC, Dr. Liu was elected chair of the Aviation Group of the Asia- Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and was nominated by China to sit on the Air Transport Regulation Panel in ICAO. She also served as an expert on mediation and dispute resolution. She was chief negotiator for the Chinese government for bilateral and multilateral air transport agreements with foreign countries.

Dr. Liu earned a PhD in international law at Wuhan University, China, and a Master’s degree in air and space law at Leiden University, the Netherlands. She is the Director of the Association of Air Law of China and of the Association of Private International Law of China, and has published articles and delivered lectures on a wide range of topics in international air transport regulation and air law. She speaks Chinese and English and has knowledge of French.

Could this be the first real test for the first woman & Chinese ICAO Secretary General Dr Fang Liu??


MTF...P2  

[Peetwo]

What say you Mike Chillit?

Geek of the week: conditional probabilities and MH370
11 Jul 2016|Andrew Davies

Recent reporting that the search for missing Malaysian Airlines Flight 370 might be soon called off got me thinking about the methodology of search. For my sins, I spent time in operations research in my early days in Defence. It was back in the ‘Defence of Australia’ doctrine days, and our group was working with what’s now the Defence Science and Technology Group (DST Group) on a ‘wide area surveillance study’. Surveillance isn’t the same as search but in a slowly evolving situation they’re described by similar mathematics.

Search theory in its modern form goes back to WW2, when the theory was developed primarily for hunting submarines in the open ocean. The classic text on the subject is The Theory of Optimal Search. It’s maths heavy, but the bottom line is that searching is a science, and it’s possible to have a pretty good idea in advance what the likelihood of success is and what resources will be required for a given confidence level.

The technique that’s being used for the search for MH370 is called Bayesian search theory. (Trigger alert: sensitive readers prone to flashbacks about year 11 mathematics classes are warned of potentially disturbing content ahead.) The technique has been used to locate sunken vessels and missing aircraft in the past. Famous examples include a missing hydrogen bomb (!) that went into the Mediterranean after a B-52 crash and the USS Scorpion, a nuclear submarine that disappeared in the Atlantic in 1968. The story of the search for the Scorpion, as told in the book Blind Man’s Bluff (though the details are disputed), illustrates how the Bayesian technique works. More recently, the technique helped searchers locate the wreckage of Air France Flight 447 in the Southern Atlantic in 2009.

The ideas behind it are simple enough. First you collect as much information as possible about the circumstances that led to the object of the search being lost in the first place. That allows the construction of a probability map of the potential search area. The highest probability will be where the consensus of expert opinion places the location, which is where you start looking.

Before going into further detail, it’s worth thinking about how we intuitively search. When I misplace my glasses at home (only three times a day), I first look in the obvious places, like the coffee table or my desk. If I don’t find them, I search less obvious but still plausible places; on bookshelves, or in the bathroom. If I still don’t find them, I have to decide between looking in increasingly unlikely places and revisiting the most likely ones. Generally I’ll have another look around the coffee table long before I head for the garage to check under the lawn mower. That’s an implementation of Bayesian theory.

There are some subtleties if we want to quantify my search strategy. If I don’t find them on the coffee table, then it’s more likely that they’ll be on my desk than was the case before I started looking (because I’ve excluded one area). But since no search is 100% efficient, there’s still a probability that they’re on the coffee table and I just missed them—but the probability is smaller than it was before. After every search, I mentally update my estimate of probabilities for both searched and unsearched areas. The best strategy is to always search in the most likely area, even if I’ve already looked there.

In the case of MH370, expert aviation advice and geolocational data of the aircraft from communications satellites allowed the DST Group to construct the initial probability map shown above. (The grisly details are here [pdf].) As the example above suggests, every time a location is searched, all of the probabilities need to be recalculated, so the map is only a snapshot in time.

Let’s put some indicative numbers in to see how it works. Let’s say that the original estimate of the wreckage being in an area was 20% and that the search equipment has an 80% chance of finding it if it’s there. Even after an unsuccessful search, there’s still a 4.7% chance that the wreckage is there, but happened to evade detection (which is probably what happened during the search for Air France Flight 447). A neighbouring area with an initial 10% probability estimate now has a 10.8% chance of containing the wreckage.

There’s a fair amount of public information regarding the search for MH370, and there are bloggers following and mapping the search. Recent searching is in the lower probability regions of the initial map, which isn’t surprising since the search has been going for over two years. Not knowing the search efficiency—the weather in the search area ensures that it’ll be well under 100%—it’s hard to tell what the optimum strategy is now, but it might well be worth having another look in the places initially judged most likely before giving up.

Author
Andrew Davies is senior analyst for defence capability and director of research at ASPI.

  Well I'm confused

[aussie500]

The whole thing should be dark blue, there is no chance MH370 is any where near that 7th arc. The high probability area if you just throw all the bullshit out, is back where they abandoned the original southern search.

I am still struggling to get the Defence Department to actually part with the ALL the aerial images they have that were taken from the RAAF planes involved in that southern search. They misname things, delete the embedded gps data(I assume that was there), remove images that should have been included from the 24th March. And include images from the northern search just to make me feel I got something. And then have the cheek to release them packed up as pdfs. It also took them over 3 months to do that, they were finally released on the 20th June, they needed a 30 day extension to stuff that request up.
http://www.defence.gov.au/FOI/Decisions/...ureLog.asp

They say full access, so where are the rest of the images!

And the interesting thing is they included images from the 16th March(misnamed 18th March in the schedule) which were real interesting, but of course they are going to deny they were even looking down there on the 16th. Here are the images from the 16th (Item 1) as well as a sat image(item 2), the 2 from the 24th(item 4) and both the original and my corrected schedule for the collection which arrived on 3 discs, not all sent at the same time. I got the last two discs a week later. I had to extract the images from the pdfs, just to get at the embedded meta data and get a better view of the images.
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/nbz69vn3eu2lf...I3ySa?dl=0
The 16th March, same day DigitalGlobe took their first satellite image of that southern area, so they had to know earlier the search was moving to the SIO. Australia would have known, how did they decide where to first look? They sent a P3 Orion out to look I should think, took some snaps, maybe dropped a few datum marker buoys to get the drift of things. And yet they seem to have let that debris field just drift away, never to be seen again. It was not seen in the Tomnod images, hard to say if it was seen later in the aerial search, not knowing where exactly it was seen in the first place. Not that it was that visible being submerged, just like all the other debris seemed to be.

I find it hard to believe the equipment on a P3 Orion could not detect that lot, and there was a nice white object bobbing up to get their attention. True it could have been a debris field up north from one of the ferries that sank in the Andaman Islands, or Indonesia, but the debris looked more like the cabin furnishings from MH370. They say it is south, they provided no gps data, you would think the RAAF capable of telling south from further north, but it seems they cannot. They sent 2 collections of images from the 24th and 26th of April, which were from up north, although one I cannot check the dates, but they were chasing rubbish and fishing gear. Some of the objects in item 1 looked like those multicolored seats and a whole lot of things that shine in the light, you had to have keen eyesight to see them though.

The whole search is a sham! There were at least 100 missing images from the 24th March since that was the number taken in between the 2 they actually handed over, there was probably more. Other planes went down to that area, I have not checked yet but I think there was another RAAF P3 Orion among them. They gave all of 2 images from the 24th March, some smoke and what looked more like more like a dead whale. Those missing images would have included all those objects the media heard about as well as many others. Here is a short glimpse of part of the flight that made some sightings on the 24th March. I got none of the images that person with the camera is busy snapping. That is all they handed over, the photo's taken through the windows, nothing better. They are not it seems going to trust me with anything I could actually identify, anything we might clearly see is from MH370.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ma6lBtvr5w

Here are the rest of the links to the full collection, I have uploaded the extracted images from the 26th March as well.
Item 3 pdf (24th April) (434MB)
https://www.dropbox.com/s/sp4p87qmtqh6mq...3.pdf?dl=0

Item 5 pdf (26th April, supposedly, could not verify that) (197MB)
https://www.dropbox.com/s/3dvwhh1lgb7ahg...5.pdf?dl=0

26th March Item 6 (individual images)
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/nmnjyjp0owmwd...d31oa?dl=0

Item 6 pdf (106MB) which I will delete soon now I have uploaded the extracted images.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/hhesw2fla2hggz...6.pdf?dl=0

And I already gave the link for everything that was on the first disc (items 1,2 and 4) Or you can ask the Defence Department for the images through FOI on the link I gave, but I should think they will charge you for it)

But wait, they might yet sort the stuff up out, they keep saying they are working on it, but I am not holding my breath considering how long it took them to put the first collection together. They deny they stuffed up the dates.

Edit
Here are the item 3 images extracted
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/lreg0ru5i29mj...zGWDa?dl=0

I have deleted the item 6 pdf and will soon delete the item 3 pdf since the individual extracted images are all uploaded now.

[ventus45]

Screen Grab from the video above (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ma6lBtvr5w)



Screen-Grab-From-Video-RAAF-Rescue104-at-50-seconds

The "observers" in the Orion call "MARK MARK MARK" when they see something.
Note the FOUR "MARKS". M1 M2 M3 M4.
That is a "pretty tight" debris field, all things considered.
The distance between those two crossed datum points (joined by my added red line) is only 4.63 nautical miles, on the 24th March 2014, which is 16 days after MH-370 went missing.




Edited - 14 July 2016 to add: