[ventus45]

A few further thoughts on radar issues.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1m_R44sF...sp=sharing

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1aygc6G-...sp=sharing

[P7_TOM]

Cheers Ventus – thanks - any chance you could dip a thumb nail in the tar and sketch something out for those of us who's ancient eyes don't read between the lines too well. There has been some 'interesting shipping movement and Chillit seems to be batting above par; but the mystery still remains. All help welcome.

My eyes are dim

[Peetwo]

Via mikechillit.org :

---

In Retrospect: MH370
August 18, 2021 by Mike Chillit

It’s been seven-and-a-half years since Malaysian Airlines MH370 disappeared on a routine flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing in March 2014.

International searches and several inquiries have failed to solve what is without doubt one of the world’s most puzzling aviation mysteries.

While the ‘who and why’ of MH370’s fateful flight won’t be fully understood until the flight data recorders are recovered, US based forensic analyst, Mike Chillit is confident the aircraft’s terminal location is in deep water 1,770 kilometers northwest of the Australian city of Perth.

Chillit’s intricate and complex studies confirm the plane’s journey south after an air traffic control handover ended in the rugged underwater terrain southwest of Zenith Plateau in what is formally known as the Wallaby-Zenith Fracture Zone (WZFZ).

The Zenith Plateau is well outside of the commercial shipping lanes and is colloquially described as ‘the hole’ or ‘the abyss’. The waters are regarded as amongst the deepest in the Indian Ocean.

The physics of Chillit’s work are compelling and explain why a US$42million search effort in 2017 some 2,500 kilometers southwest of the Zenith Plateau failed.

The physics are supported by ocean drift and weather data, and are significant in connection with a recent deep-water expedition conducted by the University of Western Australia and the Minderoo Foundation.

Today, the findings of this expedition are yet to be fully disclosed and while credited with the discovery of new species, it is believed the extensive data and imagery gathered during its numerous deep dives could provide vital clues regarding the location of the aircraft’s remains.

The expedition’s data and imagery so far offers the best chance for science, forensic investigation and hope to bring closure to the tragic loss of 239 lives.

Zenith is not a large area, but it is larger than the Java / Sunda Trench to the northeast, and larger than the Diamantina Trench to the south.

7,000m deep, surrounded by a broad slope on one side and a sheer cliff wall on the other the trench is a hidden void that until recently was largely unexplored.

The plane was 85 kilometers due north of the impact zone on a heading of 182 degrees when the sixth ping occurred, some 9 minutes before the aircraft crashed.

The ‘pings’ are the electronic handshakes between the aircraft’s engine management system and the monitoring INMARSAT satellite. These provide important reference points enabling the physical reconstruction of the flightpath.

Soon after the sixth ping, it is believed that the pilot banked to the right in the final moments of flight; a fact also supported given that the majority of debris recovered along the African coast coming from the aircraft’s right side.

The image below shows the reconstructed path the plane took to reach its terminal location. It has been checked and rechecked for accuracy but may not be in final form. The path was recreated using time intervals, pings, and microsecond distances. The pilot made no effort to disguise his destination after the third ping.
 
Google Earth reconstruction of MH370 flight path in yellow. Click to enlarge.

An expedition to the Zenith location was undertaken by the University of Western Australia and the Minderoo Foundation in May 2021.  Led by the University’s Dr Alan Jamieson, the expedition used the former US survey ship DSSV ‘Pressure Drop’ which is owned by deep ocean explorer Victor Vescovo. The ship is equipped with the world’s only unlimited rated diving vessel ‘Limiting Factor’ which Vescovo uses to dive to the deepest parts of the world’s oceans.

Notably, Dr. Jamieson was one of several lead scientists aboard the R/V Sonne in June 2017. The first leg of the Sonne voyage studied [i]exactly[/i] the same seafloor scanned by the Pressure Drop. Presumably, Dr Jamieson’s work onboard the RV Sonne would have been significant in the choice of specific locations explored by DSSV ‘Pressure Drop’ in May 2021.

The expedition advises that it mapped 10,460 square kilometers during the ten day expedition which focused on two locations which coincide with the calculated crash site of MH370.

Red dots below mark areas where the scanning vessel, DSSV Pressure Drop, stopped for long periods of time (more than half an hour). The longest “full stop” location was at -2.26581, 102.2839 for 260 minutes on the left side of the abyss shaded in purple.

In addition to deep dive activities, it is reported that the ship also deployed other equipment including sonar.

Google Earth with NOAA / Scripps enhancement of seabed features and depth. Click to enlarge.

The objectives of UWA-Minderoo expedition traverse several aspects of marine science and nautical survey. However, to date, the findings have not been widely shared, particularly what appears to be a carefully selected location, evidenced by the ship’s direct track to the two sites which were scanned during Dr Jamieson’s 2017 survey onboard the R/V Sonne.

It is reasonable to assume that Dr Jamieson would be conscious of the interest in the loss of MH370, yet to date there has been no communication from him, the University of Western Australia or the Minderoo Foundation.

Other academics from the University linked to the expedition are also on record professing various views and theories in relation to MH370 including Dr. Charitha Pattiaratchi.

Unconventionally and unusually, the only public comments regarding the expedition’s activities in the Zenith region have come from the ship’s owner, Mr. Victor Vescovo who appeared to speak on behalf of UWA and the Minderoo Foundation.
At various times between May 22, 2021 and June 29, 2021 Mr. Vescovo posted a total of ten tweets including a statement that denied the expedition “searched” for MH370.
 

 


 

 

 


 

 

 

 
These statements (tweets) by a third party (who is the owner of the chartered vessel), are not typical of academic expeditions and endeavors.

Combined with the absence of public statements by the expedition’s leader, these tweets suggest a lack of clarity around the academic and other relationships between the University, Mr. Vescovo, Dr Jamieson and the Minderoo Foundation.

These relationships are particularly important in terms of academic credit and even the copyright aspects of the acquired vision, images and data.

Some also argue that the University and the Minderoo Foundation as partners in the expedition carry an implied obligation to Australian taxpayers.

Irrespective of the various contractual or academic arrangements, the denials made by Mr. Vescovo specifically state that the expedition’s intent was not to search for MH370.

The ability to dive, map and explore the remote Zenith area was an opportunity to not only expand our scientific knowledge, but also to investigate and explore MH370 theories and commentary promoted by members of the expedition and other senior academics within the proponent University.

There still remains a possibility that amongst the images, vision and data, the several hundred  hours of deep diving and scanning may yield some clues, cues, or information.

This possibility, alongside the forensic work undertaken by Mike Chillit and the discovery of other evidence, accords an equally important obligation that underpins the social license of exploratory science.

Arguably, bringing transparency to what was or was not present in the opaque, cold depths of the Zenith trench is a worthy and respectful acknowledgement of the families of those who lost their lives in the Malaysian MH370 tragedy.

---

Plus: https://www.mikechillit.org/index.php/20...-endpoint/

MTF...P2 

[ventus45]

I am convinced that Z deliberately left us a clue in the sim.

https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/rseucpvye...vconk&dl=0

[ventus45]

[ventus45]

https://www.raes.org.au/eventdetails/226...7404fc86ac

[ventus45]

An interesting read.
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2023-...K3w-566qh4

[ventus45]

ZAHARI – The Master Aviator – piloted 9M-MRO to the end – Here is how.

PAIN: For your consideration.

The official ATSB / DSTG interpretation of the 7th Arc 00:19 UTC BFO's, is of an uncontrolled (ghost flight) high ROD spiral dive, into the SIO, very near to the 7th Arc, after fuel exhaustion at cruise altitude. If this interpretation was correct, the aircraft would have been shredded into millions of pieces upon impact with the surface of the ocean, and the resulting fragmented debris field should have been found within the area that was scanned.
No such debris field was found.
This leaves only two possibilities.
(A) Either the search 'missed' the debris field (which the ATSB claim is highly unlikely), or
(B) The existing interpretation of the 7th Arc 00:19 UTC BFO's is not correct.
If the current official ATSB / DSTG interpretation of the 7th Arc 00:19 UTC BFO's is not correct, then by extension, there is no logical reason to continue to assert that the debris field must still be proximate to the 7th arc, indeed, there is no logical reason to continue to believe that the wreck site will comprise a debris field populated by millions of fragmented pieces at all.
There is of course another scenario that can explain the 00:19 UTC BFO's that the 'ghost flight' (which the ‘Ghost Flight’ proponents will not entertain).

For those whose minds are firmly closed and set in reinforced 'ghost flight concrete', it might be best to just take the British Bobby's advice: 'move along now sir - nothing to see here - there's a good chap'.

For those still with an open mind, and willing to entertain a 'pilot controlled to the end' scenario, consider this one, if you will.
PREAMBLE:
I believe that Zahari had METICULOUSLY planned this MISSION long ago. EVERYTHING was dependent on 'the end game'. He fully intended to ALIGHT on the sea surface, around dawn. He knew that he needed to remain 'in the dark' for as long as possible, only becoming visual at low altitude in twilight (to be able to align with the swell so as to be able to 'alight on the surface').
NOTE: I use the word ALIGHT deliberately. I want to EMPHASISE the point, that THIS WAS NOT A DITCHING (as in an emergency landing of a land plane on a body of water), but was instead, a fully planned AND CONTROLLED water landing {like a seaplane / flying boat} at dawn.
(note: Zahari loved flying a large radio controlled scale model of a PBY/Catalina).
PLANNING:
I believe that Zahari's planning was based on the position of the 00:00 UTC SURFACE TERMINATOR at the point at which he had planned to become visual. There are a number of factors that you have to keep in mind with this.
FIRST: Sunrise occurs at cruise altitudes approximately 20 minutes before the point on the surface immediately below you, {the beginning of astronomical and nautical twilight can be up to an hour earlier (depending on latitude, day of year, etc)}.
SECOND: On that day (8th March 2014), deep in the SIO, the advancing terminator was almost perfectly aligned with his southbound cruise true heading, approaching him from the PORT side.
THIRD: The combined effect of these two factors, meant that his TOD (top of descent from cruise) had to begin very late in the flight south, probably around 23:40zulu, descending JUST UNDER THE ADVANCING TERMINATOR, (so as to be able to remain in the dark), until at a very low altitude, (say 4,000 feet AMSL).
EXECUTION:
PHASE 1-A:
Initiate descent. TOD is at 23:40 zulu.
NOTE: It is a damn shame that the second satcom call delayed what should have been the 6th ping at around 23:41 to 00:11 zulu.
Zahari deliberately shut down engine #2 (right engine) at 23:40zulu, and commenced a modified 'single engine drift down' on engine #1 (left engine) only, and whilst doing so, deliberately cross fed all remaining fuel in the right tank to the left tank.
PHASE 1-B:
Zahari modulated power as required to maintain a steady ROD of 2,500 ft/min.
NOTE: HE HAS TO MAINTAIN A MINIMUM ROD of 2,500 ft/min because of the advancing terminator.
Once all remaining fuel has been purged from the right tank, Zahari shuts down the transfer/crossfeed pumps and fully isolates the right A/C buss.
PHASE 2-A:
On reaching FL200/20,000 feet, (maximum flap actuation altitude) he reduces power to flight idle and momentarily levels at 20,000 ft to slow down as quickly as possible to configures flaps and slats for alighting.
NOTE: It is necessary to configure the flaps NOW, whilst he still has fuel for engine #1, because the hydraulic fluid required to power the hydraulic flap actuator motors that can only be supplied by the main engine hydraulic pumps.
He sets flaps 1, then flaps 5, and then flaps 15.
NOTE: ONLY FLAP 15 is selected (definitely NOT 20, 25 or 30), because it is necessary to configure 'for the end game', where the 'operating requirement', will be to have the best L/D-IGE (lift over drag ratio in ground effect) with two huge wind milling engines (acting like giant air brakes). Any more than Flap 15 generates far too much drag, so the 'trade-off' for a minimal incremental stall seed reduction is not acceptable. This is BECAUSE, although it is normally desirable to have the lowest stall speed possible, that has to be SUBORDINATE TO, and must be COMMENSURATE WITH, being able to achieve the ABSOLUTE MINIMUM ROD possible for alighting, by 'holding off and bleeding the speed' in the last few seconds before actually ALIGHTING.

NOTE: This requires 'seaplane/flying boat piloting technique' to achieve.
PHASE 2-B:
Very soon after configuring the flaps, he manually deploys the RAT. This is necessary to ENSURE that he will have enough hydraulic power for easy manipulation of the reduced number of flight control surfaces that he will have remaining after the inevitable loss of the hydraulic pumps powered by engine #1 when it eventually flames out.
NOTE: This configuration has never been tried on type in real world test flying, (for obvious reasons) so even training in Level D simulators (which can only be programmed on 'theoretical data' in this configuration), is at best, of 'questionable fidelity'.
So, for these reasons, it is absolutely necessary to 'do a little test flying' as soon as engine #1 eventually quits, so the RAT must be already 'up and running'.
PHASE 3-A:
Shortly thereafter, having satisfied himself that the RAT has deployed and has come on-line, he continues on, again modulating power to reestablish ROD of 2,500 ft/min and accelerate to, and maintain, the flaps extended limit speed of 200 KIAS, to go as far as he can .
PHASE 3-B:
Engine #1 eventually flames out due to fuel exhaustion not long afterwards, probably at a height of between FL200 and FL150. As engine #1 winds down, it's generators and hydraulic pumps go off-line, and he is now a glider, on RAT power alone, with two wind milling engines.
PHASE 4-A:
Zahari's is now focused on exercising pith and roll control inputs to test for, 'to get a feel for the responsiveness and control effectiveness with RAT hydraulics only'.
How would he proceed ?
There are two obvious possibilities.
Possibility #1.
He could have been testing for pitch control responsiveness at 'low Q' (low dynamic pressures), i.e. the 'low speed regime'.
These tests were facilitated by the combination of altitude (mid level) and low KIAS. Was he testing for stick shaker onset - possibly even stick pusher activation, and what would happen if he held it into the incipient stall, what did it feel like, would it 'mush' or 'break' ? How difficult was it to recover ? How long did it take? How much height did it take to recover? This is all crucial information for 'the end game', the final descent into the flare in ground effect, the subsequent 'hold-off' and alighting. He has to know, how slow he can actually go, before he has to, ALIGHT.
Possibility #2.
Similarly, he could have been testing roll control responsiveness at 'low Q'. Was he testing for the fidelity of roll control, roll rate, how sluggish it felt, at what point did incipient loss of roll control occur, particularly, when he would lose the ability to pick up a dropped wing in a timely manner.
This is all crucial information for 'the end game’; since there is an obvious need to perform the final alignment on a suitable wave crest. He has to know, how low, and how slow, can he actually go, before he risks losing effective roll control, and thus effective directional control. At what point, does he have to commit to a particular wave crest, come what may.

But, whilst he is doing this, the APU has automatically restarted.
It takes a little while for the APU to spin up to operating speed, (a little longer in the thin air at mid altitude than in the thick air on the ground) but when it does, it's generator comes back on line (initiating the SDU reboot).

Now, the question arises, what was Zahari actually doing with his 'test flying', his actual manipulation of the controls, right at the very moment when the SDU came back on line, and the APU air driven hydraulic pumps came on line as well ?
Zahari was pitching down (with considerable forward stick due to only one elevator powered on RAT hydraulics alone), already in a rapid descent (say 5,000 ft/min) having just begun recovery from a stick shaker onset (or a stick pusher onset) at the very moment that those APU air driven pumps suddenly and unexpectedly kicked in, suddenly repowering the other elevator, thus producing a sudden and unexpectedly violent additional pitch down.
(This immediately generates a very high and unanticipated ROD, which momentarily startles him).
Within mere seconds, his ROD has tripled from 5,000 ft/min to 15,000 ft/min. Although startled, he checks the descent with back stick, and begins recovery to maintain his necessary ROD of 2,500 ft/min.
BUT CRUCIALLY, it only takes a few more seconds for Zahari to realizes that the cause of this unanticipated aggressive pitch down upset was the APU bleed air powered hydraulic pumps coming back on-line, and powering ALL primary flight control surfaces (the confirmatory que to him being that pitch control is now 'almost like normal feel' again) so, since he definitely does not want those bloody APU air driven hydraulic pumps messing things up again,
Zahari deliberately and immediately reaches up to the overhead panel, and cycles the APU switch.
ON - then - OFF, to kill the APU, and thus kill those damn pneumatically driven hydraulic pumps.
HOWEVER - unbeknown to him, the SDU had been transmitting during that 'upset', thus generating those 7th Arc 'high ROD BFO's' that we all now know.
This 'timely, deliberate, active pilot action, of manually shutting down the APU' (unbeknown to the world) also kills the APU generator, which also removes electrical power from the SDU, which dies, as chance would have it, just an instant before 'the expected IFE log on attempt'.
NOTE: This all happened probably in the height band between FL150 and FL100, perhaps a bit lower. In any case, the 7th arc BTO arc is definitely NOT at cruise altitude, and should be replotted for a much lower altitude; I would recommend FL100 instead of the existing FL350.
PHASE 4-B:
Proceed with the 'end game'.

Regards,
Ventus45

[ventus45]

The Royal Aeronautical Society (Australian Branch - Canberra) has finally released (after 6 months) video of Peter Foley's presentation at ADFA on the eve of the 10th Anniversary of the vanishing of MH370.