[Peetwo]

MH370 - 'On the buses'.

Malcolm on 'under the bus' diplomacy -

Dear Chester (you useless git), please take note of the following as a lesson in how to throw a foreign government and regional ally (nicely) under the bus...yours Malcolm T.

Via the Oz today:

MH370: report not for Australia to reveal says Malcolm Turnbull

• Jared Owens, Ean Higgins
  
• The Australian
  
• 11:11AM July 25, 2016
  [img=0x0]http://pixel.tcog.cp1.news.com.au/track/component/author/0573acb566bb47c45e64e4c55a998aba/?esi=true&t_product=the-australian&t_template=s3/austemp-article_common/vertical/author/widget&td_bio=false[/img]
  

Malcolm Turnbull has rebuffed Labor’s calls to reveal what Australia knows about the FBI’s reported evidence that Malaysia Airlines captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah ­deliberately brought down Flight MH370.

New York magazine published an article at the weekend saying it had obtained access to a secret FBI report that showed Zaharie had used his elaborate home computer flight simulator less than a month before the aircraft vanished to conduct a simulated flight along a route closely matching that actually taken by MH370.

Opposition transport spokesman Anthony ­Albanese yesterday told The Australian the government had a duty to the families of the victims to explain what information it had.

The Prime Minister today said he was aware of the reports, but insisted the information was not for Australia to reveal.

“I’m unable to comment on them other than to say that it’s a matter for the Malaysian investigators when they’re considering their final report into this tragedy and I just note that even if the simulator information does show that it is possible or very likely that the captain planned this shocking event it does not tell us the location of the aircraft,” Mr Turnbull told reporters in Sydney.

“I want to say that everyone involved in this unprecedented search for MH370 earnestly, passionately wants to find the aircraft and I want to commend and thank all of those, all of the organisations, all of the individuals, and the countries — Malaysia and China — who have collaborated in this search.

“The location of this aircraft I hope will be found, but at this point it is an unknown. It has an element of mystery, but above all a deep sense of tragedy and loss and our hearts go out to the families and friends of those who died aboard that plane.”

That the FBI had succeeded in recovering the flight simulator data, and concluded Zaharie had hijacked his own aircraft, was first revealed by Australian pilot Byron Bailey writing in The Weekend Australian in January, quoting an Australian government source.

Captain Bailey and British airline pilot Simon Hardy have ­argued the search has been in the wrong area because rather than crashing down sharply after running out of fuel because the pilots were unconscious, as assumed by the Australian Transport Safety Bureau, a conscious “rogue pilot” could have glided the aircraft much further or conducted a controlled ditching under power.

When Captain Bailey revealed what he had been told about the FBI conclusion, the ATSB and the FBI refused to confirm or deny the report.

Critics such as Captain Bailey have claimed the Australian government and the ATSB have known all along, including from the secret FBI report, that Zaharie hijacked the aircraft, but went with the “ghost plane” scenario to avoid embarrassing Malaysia, which would not want a conclusion its pilot deliberately took down a jet.

The specific document New York claims to have uncovered adds weight to Captain Bailey’s original revelation, and the magazine described it as “the strongest evidence yet that Zaharie made off with the plane in a premeditated act of mass murder-suicide’’.

   

Hmm...I think miniscule NFI DDD has just had his first bottom spanking...


MTF...P2  

In a very disturbing follow-up to today's Oz article, the 'under the bus' Conga line is rapidly expanding.. Courtesy the other Aunty's PM crew :

MH370: Australia kept Malaysia's face saving secret that pilot chief suspect
Updated 29 minutes ago Mon 25 Jul 2016, 7:00pm

Australia knew two years ago of evidence in Malaysia that the captain of the missing MH370 airliner made off with the plane. But the Government kept secret the evidence that suggested that it was a premeditated act of mass murder.

Peter Lloyd

Source: PM | Duration: 5min 6sec
Topics: air-and-space, government-and-politics, malaysia, australia
Hide transcript

MARK COLVIN: We begin tonight with the revelation that Australia knew two years ago of evidence in Malaysia that the captain of the missing MH370 airliner made off with the plane.

But the Government kept secret the evidence that suggested that it was a premeditated act of mass murder.

A senior search official has confirmed to PM that only days after the plane disappeared, there was undisclosed evidence that Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah had practiced a strangely similar flight plan weeks before, on a $25 simulator game.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull came close to confirming it during a media conference today, but insisted it was a matter for Malaysia to reveal.

PM has been told that the evidence of a computer simulated flight decided the search zone off the WA coast, but that too was kept secret from taxpayers.

In a further blow to relatives, PM has also been told that cost considerations saw Australia, Malaysia and China quietly shelve a plan to continue searching for the plane.
Peter Lloyd has the story.

PETER LLOYD: It may not have been his intention, but today the Prime Minister's choice of words made him the first leader of an MH370 search nation to abandon the policy of denial and confirm that there is indeed police evidence that the plane's disappearance was no accident, no mystery at all to the Malaysian government.

MALCOLM TURNBULL: It's a matter for the Malaysian investigators when they're considering their final report into this tragedy.

PETER LLOYD: Hardly certain given Malaysia's police today are still denying that police information exists.

From the beginning, Captain Zaharie was a prime suspect, but until now evidence to implicate him was kept secret.

There were published rumours that the FBI had discovered such evidence on the flight simulator game on the pilot's home computer.

Now that, and more, is in the public domain after a mysterious leak of a purported Malaysian police document that goes into detail about the FBI's detective work.
Aviation writer Jeff Wise is a pilot and scientist. His scoop appeared in New York magazine at the weekend.

JEFF WISE: Well we've heard rumours for a long time that the Malaysians had passed along Zaharie's hard drive to the FBI in the United States and that the FBI had, through their leisure domain, discovered a deleted file that showed a flight path to the southern Indian Ocean.

Unfortunately they've only been rumours because although, you know, reputable sources within some of the search agencies have told the reputable journalists, all we've had to go on is the word of that journalist.

And what's new now is that I was able to see the documentation. I think, I would see this as confirming the conclusion that they probably reached from (inaudible) itself.

PETER LLOYD: Do we know how long before he took the flight the simulation occurred?

JEFF WISE: It's a little bit fuzzy. Apparently the numbers are the dates, is it, you know, was it saved on this date, was it backed up to this date, I'm not a windows expert. What I'm told is that it was sometime in February. Of course, the plane went missing in March, so it would be some time in the previous month.

PETER LLOYD: Today PM was told this information was used in the mapping of the search zone off the WA coast, but the existence of it was never acknowledged by then prime minister Tony Abbott.

The search in harrowing seas has been going on for two years, but as far back as last April, search officials meeting in Kuala Lumpur were planning exit strategies.

But behind the scenes, Australian officials were anxious about the contradictions of keeping taxpayers in the dark, while keeping Malaysia's face saving secret about Captain Zaharie's flight simulation.

PM has been told that it was Australia that crafted the language of the exit strategy deployed last Friday in the communique

COMMUNIQUE (voiceover): Ministers agreed that should the aircraft not be located in the current search area, and in the absence of credible new evidence leading to the identification of a specific location of the aircraft, the search would not end, but be suspended upon completion of the 120,000 square kilometre search area.

PETER LLOYD: At the media conference to announce the decision, the Infrastructure and Transport Minister Darren Chester MP and his counterparts made that decision, agreed over a year ago, sound freshly minted.

The Malaysian Minister Liow Tiong Lai sounded empathy for the relatives

LIOW TIONG: We understand that this will be a difficult time for them and are committed to doing everything within our means to assist.

PETER LLOYD: As he spoke, a family group was under police guard outside. A request to see the Ministers was denied. Grace Nathan's mother Ann was a passenger.

GRACE NATHAN: Two years is short. Two and a half years is short. So now is definitely not the time to stop.

PETER LLOYD: PM understands the Ministers kept mum about a draft plan to move the search south-east of the current zone. But the cost - $100 million or more - seems to have killed off the plan, even before it was given public airing.

MARK COLVIN: Peter Lloyd.

PM has been trying to contact the Transport Minister Darren Chester for a response for the last four days, but so far has received no response

 
The part in bold above??- Sheesh the plot thickens, this bit..

"..PM has been told that it was Australia that crafted the language of the exit strategy deployed last Friday in the communique.."

Coupled with this post from "K" - Au revoir; Muthafuccas. - there is definitely something smelly in Dodge??

MTF??- Definitely I'd say -

[Gobbledock]

None of the latest revelations surprise me. Governments are crooked, there has never been a better known fact. Crooked, lying, dishonest charlatans.

Malcolm and his band of merry men have been playing a high stakes game all along. The Australian political powers who have prostituted themselves to the USSA for the good part of 70 years were always going to obey their masters commands. We all know that what they have been saying is bullshit. We were just hoping that Vlad had intercepted some of the 'truths' out there in cyber land and would dump them on Willyleaks at just the right time.

Wwhat a brilliant game Auatralia have been playing. Possibly knowing the truth almost from day one, and a cover up from the USSA, Australia and Malaysia at the highest levels. Pissing away $180m on a search purposefully misdirected. If that doesn't smack of a coverup at the highest levels then I don't know what does? Be interesting to find out why PM Goldman Sachs Turnbull, former member of the Wallstreet white shoe brigade is prepared to take such a huge risk in this orchestrated coverup. And I say orchestrated coverup because the entire episode has stunk worse than one of Kim Carr's farts since day one.

The families of the deceased, taxpayers from 3 countries, and the dedicated hard working folk actually trying to legitimately find MH370 should be outraged by the latest developments. It's time for the revolution....

[ventus45]

A day (and statement) that will live in infamy.

(infamy = noun = the state of being well known for some bad quality or deed)

ATSB-Correcting-the-record-0a.jpg Size: 438.73 KB  Downloads: 111

[Gobbledock]

Nice media release. Let's take a copy, actually no let's take 30 or 40 copies, laminate them and store them. Then when this charade finally unravels and all of the truth spills out we can take those laminated and well preserved statements, roll them into a tight ball, lubricate them generously, and then robustly shove them up each each Australian government charlatans ass!

[Kharon]

Even so.

I find agreement with much of what Byron says, certainly with regard to the ‘official’ involvement.  The machinations of both governments and the ATSB are deplorable.  This further aggravated by the certain knowledge and evidence that under Dolan, the ‘official’ line could not be relied on to act in the best interests of the public.  

I believe we can agree that the aircraft was under the command and control of someone – just who (or what) that ‘someone’ is (or was) is a question which has not been satisfactorily answered. If; and it remains a big if; the Captain was the perpetrator, why not just own up to the fact?  Why continue to deepen the mystery and keep the mystery story ‘fresh’?  It defies PR logic.  The furore, headlines and media attention associated with the last two ‘suicide/murder’ events was over in a short space of time – for the public at large.  The Malaysians had a tailor made, bespoke, perfectly serviceable reason gifted to them, the first time it was mooted that the pilot had planned and executed this tragedy.  So why was it shelved for two years, before appearing as a ‘leak’ from the FBI?   Sorry; just can’t get comfy with that notion.

At a stretch, one could cosy up to the notion that this event was a ‘hi-jack’ and a deep cover story was needed so not to alarm the world at large about the ease, sophistication or threat of the event.  To protect the security and confidence of the travelling public, then, perhaps governments would go to the extraordinary lengths we have witnessed to keep the ‘facts’ secret, that would be a game worthy of the candle.  But for a ‘rogue’ pilot event, they would not throw in the amount of theatre we have seen; they’d ‘fess up and move on; game over.  Maybe ‘they’ shot the thing down to prevent a 9/11 event – who knows.  But only an event of that magnitude would merit the treatment, drama and mystery which surrounds this case.  The Egyptians seem to be managing a search and recovery without all the fuss – as did the Europeans with the GW event – so what’s so special about MH 370 that it needs such a hodge-podge of confusion, deception and window dressing?

It is all too dramatic for reality – too much window dressing – too much confusion – too many conflicting facts and now, with government heavyweights steaming in to defend, obfuscate and deny deep involvement just puts the icing on a very ugly pile of faecal matter.

Let’s hope that the smooth exit strategy continues to backfire. Turnbull’s inherited poison chalice has been passed down to him through many hands which is a fact of life he cannot change – but to ask Chester to hold on to it and not spill a drop – is a fact of life he can change. Credibility needs witness to support it, the only testimony which can, hand on heart, be provided is the fact that the fat is well and truly in the fire now.  The pushing and shoving at the Blame St bus stop must be ferocious.  We shall watch with interest as the ruck develops while the bus approaches.  

Toot toot.

[ventus45]

Aviation is the only industry on the planet that can get away with this sort of thing.
Only the Aviation Industry has the right to allow the deaths of hundreds of people to be "written off" as an "accident", when it clearly was not.
Both the Chicago Convention and the Montreal Convention, no longer serve any useful purpose, other than to protect the industry itself, not the public.
MH370 must be the tipping point, that gets both scrapped.

MH17 goes down, and it is a crime.
The legal system cranks up, Interpol, Federal Police, Coronial Inquests etc.
MH370 ?
Nothing.
The Criminal Investigation(s) Organisations of all countries with people on that plane have not lifted a finger, let alone shown any interest in the matter.
At best, they are derelict in their duties to those people.
At worst, they are guilty of complicity, if they either "know" what happened, or have been "told", at the highest levels, to "let it be".

Then we have PM Turbull's statement yesterday.
It can only mean one thing.
They (all involved Governments) want to "bury it".
Why ?
There is only one way to solve the "Riddle of MH370".
We have to figure out "why" all these governments "want", indeed "desperately need", to "bury it".
We have to figure out "what is the common imperative" shared by all the involved governments.

There is only one logical reason.
MH370 was not an aircraft systems accident, nor was it a pilot suicide.

MH370 was a "double hijack disaster", the result of a high stakes game of international espionage and counter espionage.

The first hijack was between Igari and Bitod, where one side took the plane to "snatch back" some people who knew "too much", and who could not be "allowed" to "reach destination".
All went according to plan - flying east - for some time.

But eventually, "the escorting minders" of "the unsuspecting snatched", realized that they had been thwarted.
They launched a "counter hijack".

In the ensuing battle, it all went terribly wrong, for both sides, and the innocent passengers and crew, and the aircraft crashed.

The crash was not in the SIO, nor was it in the SCS, it was way east of there.
The "French held flaperon" has been locked up, under the cloak of a "Terrorist Investigation".
Why ?
Because it has "Pacific Ocean Barnacles", not "Indian Ocean Barnacles".

Que: "Ice Station Zebra" on the VCR.

[P7_TOM]

Good shot “V” if only to demonstrate how very swiftly wild theory can develop out of the information vacuum; it also shows how ‘the plan’ plays better for those who do know. Each theory has a clan of supporters, each ‘theorist’ has a dog in the fight; ergo, it is easy to discount the ravings of all tendentious bloggers and even independent scientists. Everyone is making busy, protecting their cabbage patch often quite fiercely.

Seems to me more could be achieved if all the ‘camps’ united, called Bollocks and demanded the truth – whatever that may be. Anyway, the insurance is off the two year hook, so someone has gained a little; but, a what cost?

I’ll go with “K” on this one, it must be getting really vicious at the Blame St bus stop. Just not for the top dogs, they may however spare an indolent wave at the crowd as their motorcade wafts by on the way to another expensive, exclusive soiree. But then again, they may not.

What a buggers muddle it all is.

[ventus45]

Personally, I think the only way that this can ever be solved, is if the relatives of the 6 Australian Passengers demand that the States Involved, hold Coronial Inquests, which "force" the responsible officers of the Commonwealth Agencies involved, and both the Ministers and the 2 Prime Ministers involved, to give evidence "under oath", and if they lie, or refuse to do so, for "Annex 13", or "National Security" reasons, that they be imprisoned, until after the wreckage is found, in other words, for life.

The fact that our government has decided to condone what is clearly the murder of 6 citizens is beyond the pail.

Canberra has become a stinking cesspool.

The bullshit must stop, regardless of who gets "embarrassed".

[Peetwo]

Personally, I think the only way that this can ever be solved, is if the relatives of the 6 Australian Passengers demand that the States Involved, hold Coronial Inquests, which "force" the responsible officers of the Commonwealth Agencies involved, and both the Ministers and the 2 Prime Ministers involved, to give evidence "under oath", and if they lie, or refuse to do so, for "Annex 13", or "National Security" reasons, that they be imprisoned, until after the wreckage is found, in other words, for life.

The fact that our government has decided to condone what is clearly the murder of 6 citizens is beyond the pail.

Canberra has become a stinking cesspool.

The bullshit must stop, regardless of who gets "embarrassed".

Now where have I heard that before??

Karen Casey
November 4, 2012 at 3:49 am
When will truth trump cover-ups that are with laced with selfish intent to save ones posterior? How ridiculous to have so many broken rules in an- audit, yet almost get away with it. There is a reason for the truth that is emerging, it’s for air safety & the failure of our regulator & investigative bodies results. It has been the survivors that have been the seekers of the real deal. What a disgrace. With both our Chief Commissioners under the microscope now, the amplification of this ordeal is finally happening. CASA & ATSB have a lot to answer for, dragging this on for selfish intent is criminal & at the least cruel to all on board. The coverup is surfacing and all will be revealed about the incompetencies of all parties involved. How unprofessional this has all been. How disappointing in the treatment of the people who have experienced hell from impact till now with our own government bodies involved. Does our government have enough integrity to investigate the individuals involved and actually DO something about this rather than just go around in circles. To add insult, let’s just throw in the fact that the ex-Pel-Air chief pilot at the time of the incident now works as an investigator for CASA…please!

Just stop the B.S & tell the truth.

or from this thread at post #9...

In the words of former Careflight Flight Nurse Karen Casey - a victim of our government(s) repeated denial that the PelAir cover-up indicates systemic safety issues within our aviation safety agencies...

"Just stop the BS & tell the truth!"

{For the PelAir cover-up story refer to AuntyPru blog series - Whodunnit & why? e.g.  #Whodunnit & Why : Chapter 3.5 – In the eyes of the investigator & TOE }

MTF..P2

MTF? Yep more than likely..P2

[Gobbledock]

Darren 'Fabio' Chester;

"But Infrastructure and Transport Minister Darren Chester ­refused the push, saying the matter was one for “Malaysian investigators to consider” despite the fact Australian taxpayers are contributing tens of millions of dollars to the hunt for the aircraft."

But, but, but I thought the Malaysians handed over the primary role of the search and investigation to the Australians?? Get your 'story' right Fabio.

And Goldman Sachs Turnbull has just called a Royal Commission (distraction) into a handful of foul mouthed, spitting NT kids in custody copping a belting from authorities! Now not that I agree with these kids being assaulted, however Malcom the Wall Street banker couldn't give a shit about the 6 dead Aussies on MH370 or the countless Aussies killed or maimed over the years as a result of CAsA incompetence.
Malcolm doesn't want to acquiesce to Albo the white whale and call a Royal Commission because he knows that all their dirty little secrets may be exposed!

My oh my that beard on/beard off Muppet sure did bail at the right time, and so did Truss, the Minister for bad skin.

Please please Mr Trump, donate a few hundred million to Mr Bailey and friends to coordinate and finish off the search privately and independently....f#ck the Australian government, the Malaysians, Uncle Sam and the limp wristed ICAO. As my old man would say; 'if you want the job done right you have to do it yourself'. The IOS have the skill and the passion, just not the $$$.

TICK TOCK

[Peetwo]

DOI Update 28 July 2016 - Italian researchers new debris drift model; & Hoody stands by ATSB priority search area...
   
Courtesy the Oz, it would appear that yet another team of independent & international researchers have analysed & developed a drift model that contradicts the current ATSB priority search area.. :

Debris finds cast new doubt over MH370 search zone
Investigators examine aircraft debris found off the coast of Tanzania.

• Mitchell Bingemann
  
• The Australian
  
• 10:15AM July 28, 2016
  

Reporter
Sydney
@Mitch_Hell
[img=0x0]http://pixel.tcog.cp1.news.com.au/track/component/author/4c134add4c3a9e4881f7841b69d9ac85/?esi=true&t_product=the-australian&t_template=s3/austemp-article_common/vertical/author/widget&td_bio=false[/img]
Missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 could be as far as 500 kilometres north of the Australian-led search zone, according to new debris drift analysis conducted by a team of Italian researchers.

The researchers — whose findings were published in research journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences today — have run a new computer simulation that indicates wreckage from the plane could have originated up to around 500km further to the north than where the search is currently being conducted by the Australian Transport Safety Bureau.

The two-and-a-half year search is scouring the last 10,000sq km of its designated 120,000sq km search area along a zone on the “seventh arc” in the southern Indian Ocean.

But nothing related to MH370 — which disappeared during a flight from the Malaysian capital, Kuala Lumpur, to Beijing in March 2014, carrying 239 passengers and crew — has been found in the area that stretches from 35.5 degrees south to 39.5 degree south.

The new drift modelling shows that pieces of aircraft debris discovered in Réunion, Mozambique, South Africa and Rodrigues Island most likely originated from an area further north than the search area, between the latitudes of 28 degrees and 35 degrees south.

“Our simulation shows that the debris could also have originated up to around 500km further to the north. If nothing is found in the current search area, it may be worth extending the search in this direction,” said Eric Jansen, a researcher at the euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change in Italy and lead-author of the study.

“Our result is the first to calculate the movement of the debris that best agrees with all five of the currently confirmed discoveries. This should make it the most accurate prediction.”

This is not the first time that it has been suggested the ATSB has been searching in the wrong place for the missing Boeing 777. Other research groups, including the so-called Independent Group of professionals who have been conducting their own work to locate MH370, argued in a July paper that the ATSB was also looking in the wrong spot.

The ATSB yesterday declined to respond to the paper’s findings.

The search for missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 will be suspended if it is not found in the current search area, transport ministers from Malaysia, China and Australia said last week.

The Italian team of researchers came to their conclusion by running a computer simulation using oceanographic data from the EU Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service. This included data of global surface currents and winds over the past two years.

To improve their simulation they used the locations of the five confirmed debris found to date and placed a large number of virtual particles in the ocean to map their routes along the ocean currents and winds.

A number of variables, including the exact crash location and the effect of wind and currents on the debris remain unknown, so the researchers simulated different scenarios to construct a so-called superensemble: a combination of simulations that best describes the debris found so far.

The results indicate that the most probable locations to discover additional washed up debris are Tanzania and Mozambique, as well as the islands of Madagascar, Réunion, Mauritius and the Comoros.

“The disappearance of flight MH370 is probably one of the most bizarre events in modern history. It is important to understand what happened, not only for all the people directly involved, but also for the safety of aviation in general. We hope that we can contribute to this, even if our study is just a small piece of a very complicated puzzle,” Mr Jansen said.

I am not sure whether Chief Commissioner Hood was also privy to the Italian research teams new debris drift modelling but if he was it would appear, in a recent interview with the West Oz publication, that he is already discounting the veracity or potential importance of their findings...

Via Yahoo7:

MH370 'plunging at 400km/h before it hit the sea'
The West Australian on July 28, 2016, 1:00 am

Video Search for MH370 could be wrapped up

Australia’s crash investigator has revealed that data indicates MH370 could have been plunging at almost 400km/h just before it smashed into the sea with 239 passengers and crew.

MALAYSIA AIRLINES SAFETY RATING

In his first interview as chief commissioner of the Australian Transport Safety Bureau, Greg Hood toldThe West Australian the automated satellite link with the Boeing 777 showed its descent increased dramatically from about 1200m a minute to up to 6700m a minute.
Australian Transport Safety Bureau commissioner Greg Hood. Picture: Michael Wilson

The fast acceleration suggested no one was in control, he said.

Media outlets recently cited a two-year-old FBI report on a flight simulator on MH370 captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah’s home computer to claim he glided the plane in a controlled water landing and that the ATSB was looking in the wrong place.

Video Labor calling for the release of MH370 report

The FBI analysis was widely publicised in 2014 and it was reported in June that year that investigators found a route plotted into the Indian Ocean on Capt. Shah’s computer.

“We have known about the FBI report for two years and it was widely reported,” Mr Hood said.

“It’s nothing new.

“It potentially shows planning and possibly intent but it does not tell us where the aircraft is.”

MH370 disappeared on March 8, 2014, after communications from it were cut during what was to be a routine flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing.

Australia’s Defence Science and Technology Group analysed hourly pings from the Boeing 777 to a satellite and information about the aircraft. Its sophisticated modelling targeted 120,000sqkm where the plane most likely hit the ocean.

The Fugro Equator is one of the vessels searching for MH370.

Though the main communications systems were disabled, MH370’s satellite link was still sending information but no explicit positional data.

As well as five routine hourly contacts, the satellite twice asked the aircraft to log on to it.

Experts studied the time delay as the signals went to the satellite with performance limits and the Doppler shift — the change in frequency when an object moves towards or away from an observer — to calculate the likely Indian Ocean impact zone.

Mr Hood said he came into the search with fresh eyes and was confident after reviewing all the data that it was in the most likely site. “I am still confident that we will find it,” he said.

Video Missing plane hunt 'to be suspended'

The recent claims suggest the plane came down south-west of the search area but ATSB analysis indicates MH370 did not have enough fuel to reach the “end point” of the reported FBI route.

Mr Hood also defended the modelling used to define the search area, saying DSTG used extensive satellite and flight data from the plane and sister aircraft to validate its modelling.

He said the search strategy working group had specialists from Britain, the US, Australia, Inmarsat, Thales and Boeing. It also exchanged information with other interested groups.

Mr Hood said it might take until December to search the last 10,000sqkm because a special underwater vehicle had to be used to search difficult terrain and some sonar contacts of interest.

Sea conditions for several weeks, including one 24m wave, made it impossible to launch the vehicles.

Investigators also continued to examine debris found on African beaches and islands.

MTF...P2

[Gobbledock]

Hoody with his arms crossed and looking all splendid and manly wearing black jumper and orange vest. Very Uber! And the ships two round radar domes above his head look like a pair of testicles positioned on each side of his head!!!!

[Kharon]

Heh heh; or; a giant ‘Mickey Mouse’ hat; or,

– a visual image of the ATSB 370 bollocks.

Bet ya a CF that posed photo what not Hoody’s idea; too butch by far, bloody PR lightweights – at it again.  Windswept and ‘interesting’ ? – not.

P2 - "K" 'bye the bye' on your comment in bold above, for reasons of not wanting to aggravate you & Old Tom, I deleted the attributable journos (yes plural) for the West Oz article. However in hindsight (& in assuming that one of the journos took that ridiculous windswept, 'I'm in charge' Hood shot) I will now reveal that one Geoffrey (NFI) Thomas & one Stephen (former the Oz aviation editor) Creedy joined forces to pen that quite unremarkable article - huh??? Passing strange - wonder if Creedy was on loan from ASA???  

[Peetwo]

MH370 DOI & Hoodlum update - 29/07/16

From the latest by NewsCorp's Robin Ironside (via news.com.au), it would appear that ATSB CC Greg Hood is indeed attempting to taking control of the MH370 narrative - good luck with that Hoody...

 It would also seem that the selfie & tweep fiend DDD Darren is back - God help us! :  

Wing part may hold crucial clues as to MH370’s final moment
July 29, 2016 6:50pm


[img=0x0]http://pixel.tcog.cp1.news.com.au/track/news/content/v2/origin:video_integrator.5vd2NhNDE6-p0qNys2qJ2dAR3SIQIX43?t_product=video&t_template=../video/player[/img]

The 120,000 square kilometre search zone in the southern Indian Ocean. Picture: ATSB

Robyn Ironside - News Corp Australia Network

A WING part found on the shores of Tanzania in East Africa has been determined as “highly likely” to have come from MH370, and could provide further clues as to how the plane entered the water.

Australian Transport Safety Bureau Chief Commissioner Greg Hood said after examination by experts, it was clear the wing part was definitely from a Boeing 777.

Federal transport minister Darren Chester said analysis would continue to assess what other information could be gleaned from the debris.


Helpful. A wing part considered ‘highly likely’ to have come from MH370. Picture: AFP/ATSBSource:AFP

It is the sixth piece of debris declared as either certain or almost certain to have come from the missing Malaysia Airlines’ flight.

The wing part is also the largest piece of debris found to date.

Commissioner Hood said he was hopeful further analysis of the wing part could reveal whether it had been deployed for landing or was retracted when it separated from the plane.

He said that information could shed more light on how the plane entered the southern Indian Ocean.

The ATSB has long worked on a theory the Boeing 777 ran out of fuel and then plunged into the sea — but other experts have claimed it could have been manually glided into the ocean to minimise damage and make it harder to find.

“We’ve got no evidence either way to say there was somebody at the controls (when it hit the water),” Commissioner Hood said.


Close inspection. A wing part found in Tanzania is inspected by ATSB experts. Picture: AFP/ATSBSource:AFP

Barnacles from the wing part would also be examined to try to determine how long it had been in the water.

Oceanographers have said the discovery of the item in Tanzania was a further indication the plane’s most likely final resting place was north of the current search zone.

Professor Charitha Pattiaratchi of the University of Western Australia said based purely on oceanography, the crash site seemed more likely to be between 28 and 33 degrees south of the Equator.

The current search zone is between 32 and 35 degrees south.

Drift modelling by Professor Charitha Pattiaratchi from the University of WA shows the likelihood of MH370 debris turning up in eastern Africa and even Australia over the two years since the plane’s disappearance.

Mr Chester said the underwater search for MH370 was expected to be finalised by December.

“We remain hopeful that the aircraft will be located in the remaining search area,” Mr Chester said.

“As agreed by Ministers from Malaysia and the People’s Republic of China and Australia at the tripartite meeting on 22 July 2016, in the event that the aircraft is not located in the current area, the search for MH370 will be suspended on the completion of the 120,000 square kilometre high priority search area unless credible new evidence about the specific location of the aircraft emerges.”

MTF...P2

[Peetwo]

MH370 DOI & Hoodlum update - 29/07/16

From the latest by NewsCorp's Robin Ironside (via news.com.au), it would appear that ATSB CC Greg Hood is indeed attempting to taking control of the MH370 narrative - good luck with that Hoody...

 It would also seem that the selfie & tweep fiend DDD Darren is back - God help us! :  

Wing part may hold crucial clues as to MH370’s final moment
July 29, 2016 6:50pm


[img=0x0]http://pixel.tcog.cp1.news.com.au/track/news/content/v2/origin:video_integrator.5vd2NhNDE6-p0qNys2qJ2dAR3SIQIX43?t_product=video&t_template=../video/player[/img]

The 120,000 square kilometre search zone in the southern Indian Ocean. Picture: ATSB

Robyn Ironside - News Corp Australia Network

A WING part found on the shores of Tanzania in East Africa has been determined as “highly likely” to have come from MH370, and could provide further clues as to how the plane entered the water.

Australian Transport Safety Bureau Chief Commissioner Greg Hood said after examination by experts, it was clear the wing part was definitely from a Boeing 777.

Federal transport minister Darren Chester said analysis would continue to assess what other information could be gleaned from the debris.


Helpful. A wing part considered ‘highly likely’ to have come from MH370. Picture: AFP/ATSBSource:AFP

It is the sixth piece of debris declared as either certain or almost certain to have come from the missing Malaysia Airlines’ flight.

The wing part is also the largest piece of debris found to date.

Commissioner Hood said he was hopeful further analysis of the wing part could reveal whether it had been deployed for landing or was retracted when it separated from the plane.

He said that information could shed more light on how the plane entered the southern Indian Ocean.

The ATSB has long worked on a theory the Boeing 777 ran out of fuel and then plunged into the sea — but other experts have claimed it could have been manually glided into the ocean to minimise damage and make it harder to find.

“We’ve got no evidence either way to say there was somebody at the controls (when it hit the water),” Commissioner Hood said.


Close inspection. A wing part found in Tanzania is inspected by ATSB experts. Picture: AFP/ATSBSource:AFP

Barnacles from the wing part would also be examined to try to determine how long it had been in the water.

Oceanographers have said the discovery of the item in Tanzania was a further indication the plane’s most likely final resting place was north of the current search zone.

Professor Charitha Pattiaratchi of the University of Western Australia said based purely on oceanography, the crash site seemed more likely to be between 28 and 33 degrees south of the Equator.

The current search zone is between 32 and 35 degrees south.

Drift modelling by Professor Charitha Pattiaratchi from the University of WA shows the likelihood of MH370 debris turning up in eastern Africa and even Australia over the two years since the plane’s disappearance.

Mr Chester said the underwater search for MH370 was expected to be finalised by December.

“We remain hopeful that the aircraft will be located in the remaining search area,” Mr Chester said.

“As agreed by Ministers from Malaysia and the People’s Republic of China and Australia at the tripartite meeting on 22 July 2016, in the event that the aircraft is not located in the current area, the search for MH370 will be suspended on the completion of the 120,000 square kilometre high priority search area unless credible new evidence about the specific location of the aircraft emerges.”

&..from Live Science online:

Missing Flight MH370: Ocean Currents Point to New Search Spot
By Charitha Pattiaratchi, University of Western Australia, and Sarath Wijeratne, University of Western Australia | July 28, 2016 08:22am ET




Missing flight MH370 is somewhere out in the ocean. But where is the best place to search in the Indian Ocean?
Credit: Iakov Kalinin / Shutterstock.com

The disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 is one of the greatest mysteries in aviation. Costing A$180 million, the search of the seabed to locate the crash site is also one of the most expensive.

But after almost 28 months since its disappearance, the exact crash location has still not been found.

The Australian government, with help from experts from Malaysia and China, has been coordinating the search effort over a 120,000 square kilometre area of the Indian Ocean, off Western Australia.

With just 10,000 square kilometres still to be searched, senior ministers from the three countries met earlier this month to consider what to do if they find nothing.

The current plan is to suspend the search – not abandon it – in case any “credible new information” should emerge that could be used to identify the specific location of the aircraft.

What do we know so far

Flight MH370 disappeared on March 8 2014, en route from Kuala Lumpur, in Malaysia, to Beijing, in China, with 239 passengers and crew on board. For reasons that are still unknown, the aircraft diverted from its scheduled flight path.

The main evidence on the flight path of the aircraft was provided through satellite data obtained from Inmarsat, which indicated that the plane most likely ended up in the southeast Indian Ocean.

Analysis of a series of seven acoustic “pings”, originating from the aircraft engines, showed the likely location of the plane was along an arc that allowed for an equidistance between the plane and the satellite.

The last of the seven pings was received at 00.19 UTC and the location of this arc – the 7th arc – is the basis for defining the search areas by the Australian Air Transport Safety Board (ATSB).


Location of the 7th Arc and the origin of debris locations.
Credit: Google Earth

The oceans around the potential crash area were extensively searched using ships and aircraft in the days and weeks after March 18 2014, but they failed to identify any surface debris.

The aircraft debris

On July 29 2015, more than 16 months after the flight disappeared, a section of a wing – a flaperon – washed up on Reunion Island in the eastern Indian Ocean. This was later confirmed as originating from the MH370 aircraft.

We actually predicted this discovery using an oceanographic drift model 12 months in advance.

Subsequent to finding of the flaperon on Reunion Island, additional pieces of debris have been found in the eastern Indian Ocean along the shorelines of Mozambique, South Africa, Madagascar and Tanzania. These, too, are consistent with our drift modelling predictions.

In addition, the discoveries by US lawyer and amateur investigator Blaine Gibson were facilitated by the model predictions we made.

There are many clues that a knowledge of the oceanographic processes and drift modelling provide to this mystery.

First, due to the prevailing surface wind patterns, each of the ocean basins consists of a large gyre, which is a large system of circular ocean currents, and in the southern Indian Ocean it moves in an anticlockwise direction.

This means any debris originating in the southeast Indian ocean will initially be transported northwards, then joining the strong east-to-west current, the south equatorial current to the western Indian Ocean.



Pathways of debris to 28 July, 2015, originating from the southern Indian Ocean indicating the the presence of the anticlockwise southern Indian Ocean gyre.
Credit: The Conversation
 
Second, oceanographic drift models simulate the pathways of debris under the action of ocean currents, winds and waves to identify regions where the debris may ultimately make landfall.

These models can also provide timescales for the debris to travel to the western Indian Ocean and this is one of the aspects investigated through our simulations. 
 
Tracking possible debris paths

We used the surface currents predicted by the HYCOM global ocean model as input to a particle tracking model to track debris over a 16-24 month period to coincide with the finding of the flaperon on Reunion Island.

The origin of the debris was specified along the 7th arc at 25 different locations (see top image) extending from the south (-39.258298°S 87.515653°E) to north (-22.815421°S 103.829706°E). For each model run, 50,000 particles were released and tracked over the period March 8 2014, to July 28 2015.

The results indicated that if the debris originated from the southern most location (LOC01 in the top image), the debris would not have reached Reunion Island by July 28 2015 (below).


Pathways of debris to July 28 2015, originating from the southernmost location along the 7th arc.

In fact, the debris would not have passed the 60°E longitude; Reunion Island is at 55°E. In contrast, if the debris originated from the northernmost location (LOC25 in the top image), the debris would have arrived at Reunion Island before March 30 2014, some four months prior to the discovery of the flaperon (below).


Pathways of debris to July 28 2015, originating from the northernmost location along the 7th arc.
 
These results are consistent with the finding of the debris in the western Indian Ocean and originating from the 7th arc, but the travel times differ by several months depending on the origin of the debris along the 7th arc.

By examining the time at which the flaperon was found in Reunion Island, the model results may guide us to narrow the locations along the the 7th arc.


Pathways of debris to July 28 2015, originating from location 11 along the 7th arc.
 
Debris pathways originating from location 11 (LOC11 in the top image) indicated that by July 28 2016, the a first few particles (i.e. the fastest pathway) would have reached Reunion Island (below).

Debris pathways originating from location 18 (LOC18 in the top image) indicated that by July 28 2015, the majority of particles in the time interval would have passed Reunion Island (below).


Pathways of debris to July 28 2015, originating from location 18 along the 7th arc.

These results from the oceanographic drift modelling indicate that in terms of the timescales involved in the transport of the debris to Reunion Island the most likely location for the origin would be between locations 11 (33.171678°S, 96.294832°E) and 18 (28.297439°S, 100.503580°E).

These results are consistent with recent predictions by an independent Italian group using similar modelling techniques.

So where to search next?

The location of the possible crash site identified through the drift modelling presented here are located to the north of the current sea bed search area.

The current status of the search is that once the current targeted area has been completed, the search is to be suspended. This would allow for careful reflection and review of the different data sources as well as results from the sea bed mapping.

Results of the oceanographic drift modelling indicate that if a new search is to be conducted, then a priority region to target would be the area between 33°S and 28°S along the 7th arc.

Charitha Pattiaratchi, Professor of Coastal Oceanography, University of Western Australia and Sarath Wijeratne, Research Assistant Professor, UWA Oceans Institute, University of Western Australia

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

         



MTF...P2  

[Peetwo]

MH370 DOI & Hoodlum update - 29/07/16

From the latest by NewsCorp's Robin Ironside (via news.com.au), it would appear that ATSB CC Greg Hood is indeed attempting to taking control of the MH370 narrative - good luck with that Hoody...

 It would also seem that the selfie & tweep fiend DDD Darren is back - God help us! :  

Wing part may hold crucial clues as to MH370’s final moment
July 29, 2016 6:50pm

&..from Live Science online:

Missing Flight MH370: Ocean Currents Point to New Search Spot
By Charitha Pattiaratchi, University of Western Australia, and Sarath Wijeratne, University of Western Australia | July 28, 2016 08:22am ET




Missing flight MH370 is somewhere out in the ocean. But where is the best place to search in the Indian Ocean?
Credit: Iakov Kalinin / Shutterstock.com

The disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 is one of the greatest mysteries in aviation. Costing A$180 million, the search of the seabed to locate the crash site is also one of the most expensive.

But after almost 28 months since its disappearance, the exact crash location has still not been found.

The Australian government, with help from experts from Malaysia and China, has been coordinating the search effort over a 120,000 square kilometre area of the Indian Ocean, off Western Australia.

With just 10,000 square kilometres still to be searched, senior ministers from the three countries met earlier this month to consider what to do if they find nothing.

The current plan is to suspend the search – not abandon it – in case any “credible new information” should emerge that could be used to identify the specific location of the aircraft...

..Charitha Pattiaratchi, Professor of Coastal Oceanography, University of Western Australia and Sarath Wijeratne, Research Assistant Professor, UWA Oceans Institute, University of Western Australia

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Further AuntyPru DOI Update: 30/07/16

First yesterday's presser from miniscule DDDD (NFI) Chester...

Latest piece likely from missing MH370
Media Release
DC081/2016
29 July 2016


Minister for Infrastructure and Transport Darren Chester said today it is highly likely that the latest piece of debris being analysed by Australian Transport and Safety Bureau (ATSB) is from missing Malaysian Airlines flight MH370.

“The wing part was found in Tanzania and transported to Australia for analysis by ATSB,” Mr Chester said.

“The experts will continue to analyse this piece to assess what information can be determined from it.”

Previously one piece of debris has been confirmed as coming from MH370 and four further items were determined to be almost certainly from the missing aircraft.

The debris pieces were located in areas consistent with drift modelling performed by Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation and affirms the focus of search efforts in the southern Indian Ocean.

Mr Chester said the underwater search was continuing around 2600kms west of Perth. Subject to weather conditions, the targeted 120,000 square kilometre search in water up to six kilometres deep is expected to be finalised by December.

“We remain hopeful that the aircraft will be located in the remaining search area,” Mr Chester said.

“As agreed by Ministers from Malaysia and the People's Republic of China and Australia at the tripartite meeting on 22 July 2016, in the event that the aircraft is not located in the current area, the search for MH370 will be suspended on the completion of the 120,000 square kilometre high priority search area unless credible new evidence about the specific location of the aircraft emerges.”

The latest piece of debris being examined at the Australian Transport and Safety Bureau.

 
Next a basic short summary, courtesy the Oz, of the above & confirmation that the JACC were always aware that Captain Z's flight sim had a flight route planned near to the current SIO priority search area: 

Malaysian Airlines MH370 captain’s simulator course confirmed

• Kylar Loussikian
  
• The Australian
  
• 12:00AM July 30, 2016
  

Journalist
Sydney
@kloussikian
[img=0x0]http://pixel.tcog.cp1.news.com.au/track/component/author/e2d5efd9c4daf7e0382d77f491465af2/?esi=true&t_product=the-australian&t_template=s3/austemp-article_common/vertical/author/widget&td_bio=false[/img]
Authorities co-ordinating the search for Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 have confirmed that the pilot’s home simulator had been used to plot a course to the southern Indian Ocean.

It is the first time that the Joint Agency Co-ordination Centre has revealed information about Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah’s simulator, after The Australian published an article in which ­former senior pilot Byron Bailey suggested it showed the disaster was a deliberate murder/suicide.

Malaysian authorities denied this was the case, while the Aust­ralian Transport Safety Bureau, said in a statement: “The inform­ation shows only the possibility of planning ... it does not reveal what happened on the night of the aircraft’s disappearance, nor where the aircraft is located.”

But the centre, in an email, said that “the MH370 captain’s flight simulator showed someone had plotted a course to the southern Indian Ocean”.

It comes as Transport Minister Darren Chester said the latest piece of debris found, in Tanzania, was “highly likely” to be from the missing flight. He said the underwater search was continuing about 2600km west of Perth.

“We remain hopeful that the aircraft will be located in the ­remaining search area,” he said.

• More: MH370 search a sham?
  

The plane disappeared not long after take-off in March 2014

Finally from this AM's Today Show Blaine Gibson is interviewed..

MTF...P2

Ps For the linked Higgins Weekend Oz MH370 article go to this post : Why Australia needs an MH370 inquiry

[Peetwo]

MH370: 60 minutes & the Oz today - PartII

Q/ Who really are the criminal/terrorists here?

MH370 under control of pilot when it crashed: search co-ordinator
Ross Coulthart
The Australian
12:00AM August 1, 2016

 

Quote from the above Ross Coulthart article:

..But as recently as Friday ATSB commissioner Greg Hood reiterated the view of the search team that satellite data from the Boeing 777 jet suggested it was plunging at almost 400km/h just before it crashed into the sea with 239 passengers and crew...

And quote from Greg Hood West Oz/Airline Rating/Yahoo7 article last Friday:

..Australia’s crash investigator has revealed that data indicates MH370 could have been plunging at almost 400km/h just before it smashed into the sea with 239 passengers and crew.


In his first interview as chief commissioner of the Australian Transport Safety Bureau, Greg Hood told The West Australian the automated satellite link with the Boeing 777 showed its descent increased dramatically from about 1200m a minute to up to 6700m a minute... 

In last night 60 Minutes program Peter Foley rehashed some of the same information about the aircraft rate of descent at the presumed end of flight after the final 00:19 aircraft to satellite (BFO) ping. Refer to Part I YouTube video at about 08:50 minutes.

After reviewing all the available DSTG/ATSB information off the ATSB MH370 reports page - see HERE - nowhere is it stated that ROD and/or G/S (stated as 400km/h) was calculated off the aircraft transmitted satellite data. Which means this is either new information or information that the ATSB, SSWG and the Annex 13 JIT investigators have previously not made public.  

It could be that the ETM (engine trend monitoring) system data that was routinely transmitted from the a/c was somehow corrupted or was abbreviated but the following article gives you an idea of the sort of information that should have been transmitted from the aircraft and then recorded at the RR ground station:  

Aircraft Engine Monitoring: How It Works And How It Could Help Malaysia Air 370 Crash Investigators


John Goglia,  

Contributor

A lot of talk this morning about whether Malaysia Air Flight 370’s aircraft engine monitoring data indicate that the aircraft continued to fly for hours after its transponder stopped transmitting. While the  Wall Street Journal report that started all this talk may turn out to be incorrect – Malaysian officials are already disputing the story -one of the few facts that does not appear to be in dispute is that the Rolls-Royce engines on the BoeingBA +0.49%777 had an engine monitoring system.

A number of people are asking me just what exactly an engine monitoring system does – how it works, the data it collects, how it transmits the data and what is done with it.  (To be clear, I am only talking about the engine monitoring system.  Boeing also has an aircraft monitoring system but reports indicate that Malaysia Air did not have that Boeing system.)

Airline aircraft engine monitoring systems are used to check the health of the aircraft engines to avoid costly repairs, especially the time and cost of removing engines prematurely.

Aircraft engines are the most expensive components on an aircraft and can cost as much as $20 million.  Repairs are also extremely expensive, especially when an engine is taken out of service.  Before engine monitoring systems, engines had to be removed more frequently for repairs, at times in places far from repair facilities, necessitating the time and expense of transporting replacement engines and taking the aircraft out of service for longer periods of time.

Engine monitoring systems involve using sensors placed in various locations in an aircraft engine to gather information about the engine’s performance.  The sensors provide real-time information to pilots on the operation of the engines and also capture data for analysis of the performance of the engine over time.  The data captured reveals important information about the health of the engine.  For example, sensors will monitor how much fuel it takes to make a set amount of power.  Increases over time in the amount of fuel consumed would indicate a degrading of the efficiency of the engine, which means the engine is more expensive to operate and it will need maintenance to restore its efficiency.  Sensors can also detect impending failures and notify both the crew and ground stations.

The data from the sensors are accumulated and transmitted at regular intervals to ground stations monitored by the engine manufacturers. Alert messages indicating anomalies are instantly transmitted. According to Rolls-Royce’s website, their aircraft engine data is transmitted via satellite feed.  Rolls- Royce would analyze the data submitted and make recommendations to the airline for engine maintenance, as appropriate.

In the case of Flight MH370, analysis of the engine data captured by Rolls-Royce could provide important information with regard to engine performance at the time the transponder stopped transmitting.  This information would indicate, for example, if the engines were running properly or if certain parts were running too fast, too slow or too hot or if the engine was running at all.

In the Air France AF447 crash in the Atlantic in 2009, the Airbus aircraft monitoring system was critical in giving accident investigators vital clues as to what might have caused the crash before the flight data recorder was found.  The aircraft monitoring system indicated unusual aircraft speeds which could have been due to problems with the pitot tubes, critical components of the aircraft’s airspeed indicator.  These early clues allowed investigators to hone in on a possible accident cause and allow Airbus to make changes to the pitot tubes well before the black boxes were retrieved, which when recovered and analyzed confirmed the problem with the pitot tubes.

P2 comment: Ironically this article was written some days before the Inmarsat BFO recorded data was first made public, with that in mind it is very interesting to read some of the insightful comments.

The following pic is taken from the Rolls Royce basic blurb on their Engine Health Management system - see HERE - showing the engine probes and the data they record, in particular refer to the aircraft data box:

From that it is pretty easy to see that indeed it would be possible to calculate a fairly rudimentary ROD from the last 00:19 ping data transmitted from MH370. However this is provided that the information is not corrupted, or interrupted during transmission i.e. lost in translation. 

Of course if the stated data did actually enable the boffins from MH370 Search Strategy Working Group to be able to calculate a ROD and TAS/CAS, then it goes without saying that they should have been able to derive the same data from the other satellite pings.


MTF...P2

[Peetwo]

..But as recently as Friday ATSB commissioner Greg Hood reiterated the view of the search team that satellite data from the Boeing 777 jet suggested it was plunging at almost 400km/h just before it crashed into the sea with 239 passengers and crew...

And quote from Greg Hood West Oz/Airline Rating/Yahoo7 article last Friday:

..Australia’s crash investigator has revealed that data indicates MH370 could have been plunging at almost 400km/h just before it smashed into the sea with 239 passengers and crew.


In his first interview as chief commissioner of the Australian Transport Safety Bureau, Greg Hood told The West Australian the automated satellite link with the Boeing 777 showed its descent increased dramatically from about 1200m a minute to up to 6700m a minute... 

In last night 60 Minutes program Peter Foley rehashed some of the same information about the aircraft rate of descent at the presumed end of flight after the final 00:19 aircraft to satellite (BFO) ping. Refer to Part I YouTube video at about 08:50 minutes.

After reviewing all the available DSTG/ATSB information off the ATSB MH370 reports page - see HERE - nowhere is it stated that ROD and/or airspeed (stated as 400km/h) was calculated off the aircraft transmitted satellite data. Which means this is either new information or information that the ATSB, SSWG and the Annex 13 JIT investigators have previously not made public.  

It could be that the ETM (engine trend monitoring) system data that was routinely transmitted from the a/c was somehow corrupted or was abbreviated but the following article gives you an idea of the sort of information that should have been transmitted from the aircraft and then recorded at the RR ground station:  

Aircraft Engine Monitoring: How It Works And How It Could Help Malaysia Air 370 Crash Investigators

P2 comment: Ironically this article was written some days before the Inmarsat BFO recorded data was first made public, with that in mind it is very interesting to read some of the insightful comments.

The following pic is taken from the Rolls Royce basic blurb on their Engine Health Management system - see HERE - showing the engine probes and the data they record, in particular refer to the aircraft data box:

Update to above post :  Geoffrey Thomas & Steve Creedy have apparently joined forces again to do a follow up to the MH370 Hoody article, this time they interview Blaine Gibson to give his perspective on the 60 Minutes program and the resulting MSM & Social media coverage since:  

MH370 sleuth says media reports are wrong on debris
Geoffrey Thomas & Steve Creedy 02 Aug 2016

US lawyer who has found most of the debris from MH370 says the 60 Minutes program's expert is not correctMr Blaine with the pieces of debris he found in Madagascar In March this year Jean Dominique and Suzy Vitry found this piece from the cabin interior on the beach of La Reunion. Confirmed as highly likely to be from MH370 by the ATSB 

http://www.airlineratings.com/news/749/m...tDZbL.dpuf

However what perked my interest was the following quoted text, which once again confirms the recent ATSB (Hood & Foley) analysis of satellite data pointing towards calculated ROD & TAS/Mach No. ("400km/h") at the assumed end of flight (00:19 BFO) :

The ATSB is sticking with the current search area based on satellite data and say the uncontrolled ditching is still the hypothesis that bests fits the few available facts .


These include an analysis of frequency differences that indicated the aircraft was descending between 1800m per minute and 3000m per minute during its final log-on request to a geostationary satellite over the Indian Ocean and at up to 6700m per minute eight seconds later when it receives an acknowledgment from ground station in Perth.

Another piece of key evidence is sitting in the ATSB laboratories in Canberra. Failure analysts are looking a large piece of the aircraft’s right main wing flap to see if it was extended on impact. 

If this proves not to be the case, it will serious blow to the controlled landing theory. 

So in case I missed something I revisited the DSTG analysis report - Bayesian Methods in the Search for MH370.

Reference extracts:

10.5 End of Flight

The output of the particle filter is an estimate of the pdf of the aircraft state at 00:19.

The aircraft was still in the air at this time and a model is required to describe the

distribution of how it may have descended. This has been primarily the responsibility

of the ATSB and the other members of the search team. A discussion of the different

methods used to model the potential motion is presented in [5]. The model for aircraft

motion after 00:19 leads to a prioritisation of the search along and around the final

BTO arc...

...The analysis in [5] leads to a probable scenario where the aircraft ran out of fuel at

some time between 00:11 and 00:19. The final satellite communications message

could be due to the modem rebooting under auxiliary power. Under this hypothesis,

the aircraft was already unpowered at 00:19. The spread of the kernel function is
then determined by the distance over which the aircraft could have moved, which

depends on whether or not the aircraft was under human control during this period.

Flight simulator studies of uncontrolled descents have shown a high likelihood

of the aircraft reaching zero altitude within 15 nm of the beginning of descent [5].


However, the beginning of descent is not known. It is possible for the aircraft to have

travelled farther, especially if a human was controlling the aircraft. As an indicative

kernel, and following advice from the ATSB, a uniform disc of radius 15 nm with

a Gaussian drop off with standard deviation 30 nm beyond this was chosen; this

represents the accident investigators’ assessment of the likely scenarios...

---

& from Para 10.9:

...The factors that do make a significant difference to the output pdf are the assumed

spread of Mach number and the end of flight model. The assumed Mach number

range covers the speeds feasible over long time durations. The lower end of this

speed range results in the Northern part of the pdf and the higher end of the speed

range results in the Southern part. Restricting the speed to only Mach numbers above

0.8, for example, would contract the pdf to the South. The consequence is that using

a smaller speed range within the bounds already modelled leads to a subset of the

search zone. If a different end of flight model is assumed the general consequence

is to spread the search zone over a larger area. Simulations have predicted that

the maximum distance that the aircraft could have glided under human control is

approximately 100 nm after 00:19 [5]. The search zone that this scenario would

imply is very much larger...

As can be seen there is no reference, from DSTG at least, to any of the BFO data (after 00:19) being calculated as stated in the airlineratings.com article; or indeed the 60 Minutes Peter Foley quote (Part I 08:50).

Within the DSTG book there is several references to the 00:19 BFO data being "unreliable". However apparently the ATSB, unlike the DSTG, are not concerned about this potentially "unreliable" data when analysing...

"...frequency differences that indicated the aircraft was descending between 1800m per minute and 3000m per minute ...and at up to 6700m per minute eight seconds later..."  

This raises a number of questions on the veracity of the statements made by CC Hood & Peter Foley.

Q/ After all this time what leads the ATSB to now believe the integrity of the 00:19 BFO as being secure enough to trust to calculate end of flight rates of descent between 1800 to 6700 metres per minute?

Q/ Where did the airspeed reference (i.e. 400 km/hour) come from?   

Q/ Finally how come we are only finding out about this 'analysis' now? 


So Hoody et.al in the words of former HoR MP and now Senator elect Pauline Hanson..."Please explain??" 



MTF...P2

[ventus45]

Besides the 00:19zulu BFO's, the whole matter of how the 7th arc BTO was calculated is an issue I have long been unhappy with.

[Peetwo]

Reference Wikipedia - A phugoid or fugoid /ˈfjuːɡɔɪd/ is an aircraft motion where the vehicle pitches up and climbs, and then pitches down and descends, accompanied by speeding up and slowing down as it goes "uphill" and "downhill." This is one of the basic flight dynamics modes of an aircraft (others include short period, dutch roll, and spiral divergence), and a classic example of a negative feedback system.

MH370 & Hoody's floating, diving leaf theory? -   

Totally agree "V" too many variables, unknowns & educated guesses. Couple that with the latest unverified ROD calculations made from previously stated 'unreliable' ping data and dramatic throw away lines like...

"..MH370 could have been plunging at almost 400km/h just before it smashed into the sea with 239 passengers and crew.."

...makes you wonder what on earth Hoody & Foley are playing at? Why on earth would the ATSB be drawn into such an obvious pissing match?
A rehash:

MH370 & the "he said, she said", spin & deception wars -

As can be seen there is no reference, from DSTG at least, to any of the BFO data (after 00:19) being calculated as stated in the airlineratings.com article; or indeed the 60 Minutes Peter Foley quote (Part I 08:50).

Within the DSTG book there is several references to the 00:19 BFO data being "unreliable". However apparently the ATSB, unlike the DSTG, are not concerned about this potentially "unreliable" data when analysing...

"...frequency differences that indicated the aircraft was descending between 1800m per minute and 3000m per minute ...and at up to 6700m per minute eight seconds later..."  

This raises a number of questions on the veracity of the statements made by CC Hood & Peter Foley.

Q/ After all this time what leads the ATSB to now believe the integrity of the 00:19 BFO as being secure enough to trust to calculate end of flight rates of descent between 1800 to 6700 metres per minute?

Q/ Where did the airspeed reference (i.e. 400 km/hour) come from?   

Q/ Finally how come we are only finding out about this 'analysis' now? 


So Hoody et.al in the words of former HoR MP and now Senator elect Pauline Hanson..."Please explain??" 

Putting my questions aside (above) the following is a Christine Negroni article that refutes -  i.e. the 'pilot didn't do it' camp - the aspersions & hearsay evidence that the 60 Minutes program say proves the 'pilot did it' :

Australia MH370 Pilot Suicide Theory Flies in the Face of Facts
July 31, 2016 / 7 Comments
9M-MRO on approach to LAX photo courtesy Jay Davis


“We’ve got a bit of hard data that says the aircraft was in a rapid rate of descent,” Peter Foley, a sea and marine engineer responsible for overseeing the ATSB’s search said.

Forgetting the issue of the RAT not powering the flap controls, this would put another damper on the pilot-controlled ditching theory because the flaperon can’t be deployed above 20 thousand feet or at speeds higher than 265 knots.

Foley told 60 Minutes, “We’ve got a rate of descent that’s between 12 to 20 thousand feet a minute.”

For those of you who need a little assistance with descent rate numbers, it’s like “going straight down,” another retired 777 pilot explained.

“Bottom line I don’t think you can recover from a 12 to 20 thousand foot rate of decent,” Bowers, a former military fighter pilot told me, if the suicide theory required the pilots to pull out of that kind of a dive, and then make a controlled ditching on the sea, it’s probably not possible he said. “I don’t think you can get an airplane stabilized without exceeding the structural integrity of the airplane.”

How the Australians have new data on the speed of the descent, is a mystery to me. There’s no radar, nor do I believe is this information available from the satellite.
It is possible that the rate of descent was extrapolated by an entity involved in the investigation. Boeing perhaps? Or maybe the French BEA, which has posession of the part. The engineers would only need to work backwards. How fast would the airplane have to be plummeting to cause the kind of damage seen on the flaperon? That’s my guess. Anyway, I’ve asked the ATSB for clarification.

Wreckage in the lab in Toulouse, France

But assuming the ATSB’s Foley wasn’t feeding nonsense to Australia’s “leading current affairs program”, the Boeing 777 pilots I talk to say an entirely different scenario can explain the speed and maybe even the damage on the flaperon.

After flying at cruise altitude seven and a half hours through the night, Malaysia 370 ran out of fuel. When the engines lost power, the RAT deployed. The plane may have wallowed a bit, one pilot told me, but but let’s get real, it could not fly forever. And this could explain the high speed descent.

With no discredit to the retired Canadian investigator Larry Vance, who I do not know but whom the reporter calls “one of the world’s best,” his guided-pilot theory is complex, unrealistic, in some aspects impossible.

What’s staring everyone in the face is a much more straightforward scenario involving no convoluted plots, or inexplicable mind games coming out of left field from a formerly well-regarded captain.

I don’t know for sure what happened to MH370, though you can read my theory in my soon-to-be-published book, The Crash Detectives. But it is equally perplexing how some scenarios ignore inconsistencies and disregard basic aviation principals to take viewers on a flight to the absurd.

Hmm...RAT deploy? What about the auto-light off of the APU, which from my understanding would occur first? Anyway blind Freddy can see the problem here. When so called experts from either camp (PDI v PDNDI) start asserting 'facts' to an evidentiary trail that is made up of little more than hearsay evidence and supposition, with very little in the way of actual bona fide facts, well let's just say you end up with a perfect smokescreen of distraction...   

OK now back to my questions...

+ Q/ I may have missed this, but why wasn't Rolls Royce part of the SSWG?

Bizarrely the 'he said, she said' wars continue unabated in the Oz today:

MH370 in catastrophic death dive, says analysis


Search director Peter Foley and Australian Transport Safety Bureau chief commissioner Greg Hood. Picture: Kym Smith

• Brendan Nicholson
  
• The Australian
  
• 12:00AM August 9, 2016
  

Defence Editor
Canberra

[img=0x0]http://pixel.tcog.cp1.news.com.au/track/component/author/9e8d7209e1c2ac7ea9fc05a8a39849e0/?esi=true&t_product=the-australian&t_template=s3/austemp-article_common/vertical/author/widget&td_bio=false[/img]
Exhaustive analysis by Defence scientists of automated signals ­received from Flight MH370 in its final moments has revealed that the Malaysia Airlines jet fell very fast — up to 20,000 feet a minute — as it crashed into the Indian Ocean off Western Australia.
The scientists have found that happened at 8.19am (WA time) on March 9, 2014, after the aircraft ran out of fuel and the two giant engines flamed out, the left engine first and then the right about 15 minutes later.

The Australian has been told in a series of briefings that simulations by Boeing, the aircraft’s manufacturer, indicate that once engine power was lost, MH370 would have slowed and lost lift. Its nose would have dropped and it would have descended in what the scientists call a fugoid motion in a series of downward swoops.

As it gathered speed, it would have gained lift and climbed again. As that speed fell off, its nose would have dropped rapidly once more, the aircraft falling into ­another steep dive.

That process is likely to have been repeated until it hit the water, probably with one wing down.

The impact would have been catastrophic. That fits with new analysis of sets of brief signals sent automatically between the aircraft and a satellite.

While the aircraft has not been found, the discovery of some ­pieces of its interior indicate it broke up on impact. Critics of the search strategy have suggested that the pilot could have landed MH370 ­intact on the ocean well outside the current search area. But Australian Transport Safety Bureau chief commissioner Greg Hood said analysis of the signals most closely matched a scenario in which there was no pilot at the controls at the end of the flight.

Mr Hood said the new data ­extracted from the signals reinforced the view of those leading the search for MH370 and its 239 passengers and crew that it was likely to have crashed in the 120,000sq km area now being searched.

He said extensive testing by Boeing indicated that after running out of fuel the aircraft would have dropped from 35,000 feet at a rate of between 12,000 feet a minute and 20,000 feet a minute. That rapid descent was confirmed by the signals data.

An aircraft making a normal landing would descend at 2000 feet a minute.

ATSB specialists in Canberra are examining a wing flap likely to have been torn from MH370 by the impact which drifted for over a year and eventually washed up on the coast of Tanzania.

The flap would have been part of the right wing next to the flap­eron which washed up on Reunion Island.

GRAPHIC: Boeing’s crash theory

A 2014 FBI report revealed that MH370 pilot Zaharhie Ahmad Shah had previously plotted a course down into the southern Indian Ocean on a simulator in his home computer, but that ­report does not deal with what happened to MH370 in its final hours.

The Australians leading the search do not doubt that the pilot may well have been responsible for the jet’s disappearance but they say critics of the search strategy are wrong to assume that means they are looking in the wrong place.

There are two distinct questions, they say: who was responsible for the disappearance, and where is the aircraft now?

MH370 search program director Peter Foley told The Australian that with almost no tangible ­evidence, the likely crash area was not defined by investigations of what the pilot might have done but by months of unprecedented examination of signals transmitted by automatic systems on the jet as it made its lonely flight southward and calculations of when it would have run out of fuel.

Crucial to that research was a Defence Science and Technology Group team headed by Neil Gordon, Mr Foley said.

Just after midnight MH370 took off from Kuala Lumpur as normal and headed for Beijing. The last heard from the crew was a standard radio message bidding KL “goodnight”.

Malaysian military radar picked up the jet making two turns which took it back over the Malaysian Peninsula.

As more evidence emerged it became clear that MH370 made at least one more turn at the northwest tip of Sumatra towards the southern Indian Ocean.

Those three turns would have to have been made by a pilot.

As the plane flew south, equipment fitted to it automatically sent routine signals as a series of “handshakes” with a satellite linked to a ground station in Perth.

That maintenance system was separate from systems controlled by the crew and was designed to provide data, via satellite, about the state of parts such as the ­engines.

Seven such connections were completed, which is how technicians worked out that MH370 was still flying long after ground controllers lost contact with it.

Two satellite phone calls made to MH370 went unanswered but analysis of the signals enabled the Defence scientists to confirm that the jet was then still heading south.

After the six hourly maintenance “handshakes” came a seventh signal from the aircraft which was out of sequence. The investigators believe that was when MH370 started to run out of fuel and the first of its two engines flamed out. That automated signal warned that something was wrong.

Mr Foley said the ATSB had ­always kept an open mind. “Our hypothesis is based on what we know to be hard facts,’’ he said. “We have actively looked at all scenarios and anything that will help us find the aircraft.”

"HARD FACTS"? - BOLLOCKS!

Nope my questions still stand...

This raises a number of questions on the veracity of the statements made by CC Hood & Peter Foley.

Q/ After all this time what leads the ATSB to now believe the integrity of the 00:19 BFO as being secure enough to trust to calculate end of flight rates of descent between 1800 to 6700 metres per minute?

Q/ Where did the airspeed reference (i.e. 400 km/hour) come from?   

Q/ Finally how come we are only finding out about this 'analysis' now? 

 Q/ I may have missed this, but why wasn't Rolls Royce part of the SSWG?

+ Q/ If the general consensus is that the fugoid end of flight ROD calculations have a high probability of being correct, does this represent new & credible information that will lead to a continuation of the search? If not, why not? 

MTF...P2