[P7_TOM]

Herewith – the perils of idle speculation. It seems there is another ‘hot favourite’ for the intriguing ‘left turn’. ATSB wording can be misleading, they call it as

"Shortly after, the aircraft was observed in a descending left turn."

They may however be forgiven this time: it is a safe, accurate description of the aircraft’s manoeuvring. There is a video – HERE – which, if carefully watched (a few times) shows the aircraft in what could be an incipient spin. Not proof positive but it leads to the notion that the aircraft may have overshot the runway centre line, at a low power setting, probably with a couple of stages of flap out and was in a tight turn to return to track when power was lost. The rest as they say is history now.

This notion also fits with the ATSB report – amongst others. I guess we could spend a whole evening speculating, but it would save time and energy if the ATSB would publish the Met data – 35 knots of breeze that day – the final flight path – and any video they have. It would be much better if they published a comprehensive report with clear messages. Like with this accident, like Essendon and many others, it has some safety messages to deliver. Speedily closing loops and swiftly delivering lessons to prevent a re-occurrence should be a priority.

I expect the debate will continue now – but, I shall abstain. Content to sit by the fire, quietly enjoying the Ale and ambience….