[Peetwo]

Captain's Log 13.01.17 -

More on RMP files & French 'Envoyé special' program.

For those interested here are some more leaked RMP files, links courtesy of Julie N:

8. Sim Data https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxovjdGbD3OHT0k4dkpTb3gxQjYzYjJJUFpUU3g0WTlXR0g4/view … Sim Analysis https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxovjdGbD3OHYmJZbzFhS0s5WE1RWHpHdjh0NDBFcE9RTW9F/view … Preliminary computer examination https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxovjdGbD3OHMzQtOHN5Q0VjcHBaVUd5UWQxOHR1b3dieVdr/view 

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[/url]9. Download 4: zip file (227 pgs) contains info from multiple appendices. From pg 199 also includes SIM DATA https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxovjdGbD3OHc1hBRFVfdXA2N2c/view 

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10. Download 5: RMP Folder 4 — Communications and Multi Media https://drive.google.com/open?id=0BxovjdGbD3OHc2ppUkU4Yko3bzA 

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11. Download 6: RMP Folder 5: Aircraft Record and DCA Radar Data https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxovjdGbD3OHZUJSdUtQd0ZQM2JQb2ZwZkFnX21WZHBHMjNz/view 

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12. Download 7: RMP Folder 6: ATC, audio transcript, speaker recognition analysis, ACARS, SITA, Inmarsat & RR [url=https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxovjdGbD3OHOHE5UkhFYjVjV2xNQUpaOHUtQ1pDQ2V4a0VZ/view]https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxovjdG...4a0VZ/view 

Which brings me to a recent tweet (OBS) from Julie on the broadcast overnight in France of the 'Envoyé special' program on MH370: 

ALL: Based on tonight's #EnvoyeSpecial, it's also clear that the RMP files leaked to me are MISSING (at least) 3 folders: 3, 7 and 8. #MH370

And this was a summary of the program provided by Oceankoto...

{P2 comment - I will attempt to keep up with what more revelations/developments come out of the French program and the RMP leaked files } 

To follow up on my 'Rosenker the realist' post, while trolling the JW blog I noted a couple of posts from a 'David' that pretty much (IMO) nails down the true 'elephant' or 'blue whale' in the SIO - see HERE - that for some reason the MSM (until recently with the Oz) have conveniently or negligently overlooked...

The elephant:

However they are not the elephant. Were there was a pilot at the end he could have pushed his nose down sharply (if BFO are to be satisfied) then glided beyond search areas past, proposed, or otherwise might be. He could have extended fuel consumption on the way by step climbing. He could have been responsible for both logs-on.

While there is no evidence there was a pilot there is none ruling it out either. Therein I regret to say is a stopper to finding a ‘specific location’ in which there can be confidence.

And the question that was left IMO too late to ask:

After the ATSB decided, necessarily, to make this assumption, for the search area to be practicable, the effect of that on search success probability went unremarked, at least publicly.

Without evidence either way the possibility of there being a pilot was around 50/50. Had it been assumed there had been one the search area would have been multiplied (glide distance say 100 miles) and the prospects of finding the wreckage in the search area settled on would have been less than halved. A 50% chance of there being a pilot still lowers the 90% a good deal and to that should be added the like effect of other assumptions (eg route weightings and simplifications).

The outcome is that had the funders been aware of the much lower search probability they might not have approved the search, that is unless politics overrode. In either case the next-of-kin and public were misled, presumably inadvertently.

   
This is the clanger...

"..So as to your above remark, as things stand there is little prospect of either the three countries or any benefactor standing up and swallowing the cost unless that elephant can be shot..."

IMO there is strong evidence to suggest that certain DIPs to this smelly investigation & search effort, have no intention of that rogue elephant being identified let alone 'shot'...

Why? David either very cleverly or naively points out why:

Were the ATSB search report to reflect on this, and bearing in mind the prospects of there having been a pilot now remain much the same, there might well be grounds to abandon the search for wreckage rather than suspend it on the grounds the prospects are unlikely to improve enough, clearing the way for a final report by Malaysia.

Naturally any unexpected development could lead to reopening of the investigation. There is precedent for this.

Definitely MTF on this and the vagaries of ICAO signatory States potentially interfering/compromising the integrity and independence of an Annex 13 sanctioned international AAI...

MTF...P2

Ps Hmm...wonder if the ATSB TSI Act still applies with the MH370 Annex 13 JIT investigation?

24 Offence to hinder etc. an investigation

(1) A person is guilty of an offence if:

(a) the person engages in conduct; and

(b) the person is reckless as to whether the conduct will

adversely affect an investigation:

(i) that is being conducted at that time; or

(ii) that could be conducted at a later time into an

immediately reportable matter; and

© the conduct has the result of adversely affecting such an

investigation (whether or not the investigation had

commenced at the time of the conduct); and

(d) the conduct is not authorised by the Executive Director.

Maximum penalty: Imprisonment for 6 months.