[slats11]

As it looks increasingly likely that the seabed search will come up empty (and the ground is being prepared for this), its worth revisiting a few aspects of this.

A lot of "evidence" at the start suggests it was human intervention. To argue a technical issue (e.g. fire), you have to explain the following:
1. Happened right at FIR boundary
2. Happened without any prior warning - routine transmission from MH370 at FIR handoff.
3. Happened catastrophically such that no distress call was possible
4. Plane then reversed course and tracked back across peninsula
5. Satellite unit subsequently re-booted after crossing peninsula
6. Plane then flew on what is believed to be steady heading and speed for another 6 hours.


If this wasn't an accident, the alternative is human intervention. Why? What possible motive is there for such an act.

Well it wasn't a dramatic 9/11 style crash, and it wasn't a Germanwings event. So what was it.

If the intent was to achieve the maximum possible political difficulty for Malaysia, this event has ticked a lot of boxes:
1. Still unexplained 2 years later. There is still a lot of discussion long after most people have stopped talking about Germanwings.
2. Involved the national flag carrier - a source of pride to Malaysia.
3. Most pax were from China. If there is one country Malaysia would avoid upsetting, it is China.
4. Crossed back over Malaysia peninsula without being intercepted and with limited radar data = more Malaysian incompetence and embarrassment.
5. If not for the satellite "pings", the only thing we would have would be a vague radar trace heading west in the direction of numerous unfriendly countries - take your pick. Sure, India could probably be trusted to share any radar information, but the plane could have looped well south of India and so absence of proof from India would not be proof of absence. From wherever the plane was suspected of going, it could later be used to strike Europe or USA. That wasn't the plan of course. But that would have been the concern if not for the satellite pings. That would have made key Malaysian allies (including USA) deeply unhappy. And that may have been the final goal. Have intelligence agencies trying to find a plane in an unfriendly country where it didn't exist. And a lot more scrutiny on Malaysia.

So how did the flight finally end?

I have always favoured a controlled ditching for many reasons. Glide after fuel exhaustion to get even further south, and try to minimise fragmentation of the plane and the chance of debris turning up. That would mean a location EAST of the solar terminator.

Several people are confident the final 2 BFO values strongly suggest a rapid and uncontrolled dive after fuel exhausted. This scenario would likely create more debris, but in a remote location thousands of miles from land and at approx 90 degrees to the last radar sighting. There is always the small risk that a random dive could occur near a ship - a fishing trawler went missing in that area shortly after MH370. This risk would be reduced by a dive at night - no engines, no lights, and so would have to be fairly close to a ship to be noticed. Whoever was responsible may have decided this risk was small enough to ignore. But this scenario means a location WEST of the solar terminator.