“Another one bites the dust.........”
Picture this – Single pilot, operating IFR, middle of a dark, weather limiting night, icing on descent to the initial instrument fix; cloud, wind, rain and turbulence forecast all the way down to the instrument minima, heavy aircraft, carrying a bit of ice through the low level turbulence. All forecast...
“Are you ready, hey, are you ready for this?
Are you standing on the edge of your seat?
Out the doorway the bullets rip
To the sound of the beat, yeah, yeah, yeah”
Every chance of a missed approach – 6o:: 40% certainty. Alternate selected; fuel sufficient; action plan 'sorted' – in you go – one shot – no fuel to bugger about. Minima, not visual, power up clean up and back into the crap you go. What rule was not broken? The bloody minima is what. Why not? Well, thirty seconds of clarity will tell you the answer and if you need that explained, then you have no business flying an aircraft; non whatsoever..
“A superior pilot uses his superior judgement to avoid situations which require the use of his superior skill.” - Frank Borman.
That message should be the one hammered home, hard and often; then repeated as often as necessary until it is beaten into the thickest of skulls. Instead of that wise counsel being promoted; the ATSB provide (fatuously) a new label for gross ignorance, an excuse to excuse the inexcusable; “Plan continuation bias”. Can you believe an 'aviation safety outfit' promoting this 'new age' crappola? WTD.
“What a load of crap. "Probably, plan continuation bias”? ???. Now there’s a bias ‘label’ for everything. I don’t know how this helps anyone.”
Let us get the terminology right: there is no such animal as 'inadvertent' or 'unintended' entry into IMC (with a few exceptions) it is a deliberate, aforethought act. There are times when a little judicious 'scud running' or scampering through valleys are totally acceptable methods of 'getting the job done' – done myself, countless times – but always with the back door wide open. The vagaries of the weather forecast demand serious pre flight consideration. That and the map provide all the information needed to find not only a back door, but 'decision' points. All that is then needed is the self discipline (in the interests of self preservation) to stick to those markers. If that all proves intellectually challenging; then grab an IFR chart and check the LSALT – these 'heights' clearly define an acceptable lowest height for operating 'in cloud'. If you are VFR and daft enough to deliberately enter clouds, then its probably a good bet to make sure that you and the bricks are properly separated.
Bad weather flying under the VFR demands much, much more discipline than IFR; especially when there is a functioning 'auto pilot'. The most important word in the lexicon is No, closely followed by No Way. There are old pilots, and there are bold pilots; but very few 'old-bold' pilots.
'Plan continuation bias' - who dreams up these 'new speak' platitudes?
“I don’t know how this helps anyone.”
Neither do I mate: its rubbish, psycho babble, a distraction from core issues and an indecent cop out. (no prize for the right answer).
Aye, rant over – but seriously folks.
Toot – toot.........
Addendum...
Golden rule for ALL pilots:-
“Hope for the best – expect the worst.” For example:-
- HERE – (Sky news).
Picture this – Single pilot, operating IFR, middle of a dark, weather limiting night, icing on descent to the initial instrument fix; cloud, wind, rain and turbulence forecast all the way down to the instrument minima, heavy aircraft, carrying a bit of ice through the low level turbulence. All forecast...
“Are you ready, hey, are you ready for this?
Are you standing on the edge of your seat?
Out the doorway the bullets rip
To the sound of the beat, yeah, yeah, yeah”
Every chance of a missed approach – 6o:: 40% certainty. Alternate selected; fuel sufficient; action plan 'sorted' – in you go – one shot – no fuel to bugger about. Minima, not visual, power up clean up and back into the crap you go. What rule was not broken? The bloody minima is what. Why not? Well, thirty seconds of clarity will tell you the answer and if you need that explained, then you have no business flying an aircraft; non whatsoever..
“A superior pilot uses his superior judgement to avoid situations which require the use of his superior skill.” - Frank Borman.
That message should be the one hammered home, hard and often; then repeated as often as necessary until it is beaten into the thickest of skulls. Instead of that wise counsel being promoted; the ATSB provide (fatuously) a new label for gross ignorance, an excuse to excuse the inexcusable; “Plan continuation bias”. Can you believe an 'aviation safety outfit' promoting this 'new age' crappola? WTD.
“What a load of crap. "Probably, plan continuation bias”? ???. Now there’s a bias ‘label’ for everything. I don’t know how this helps anyone.”
Let us get the terminology right: there is no such animal as 'inadvertent' or 'unintended' entry into IMC (with a few exceptions) it is a deliberate, aforethought act. There are times when a little judicious 'scud running' or scampering through valleys are totally acceptable methods of 'getting the job done' – done myself, countless times – but always with the back door wide open. The vagaries of the weather forecast demand serious pre flight consideration. That and the map provide all the information needed to find not only a back door, but 'decision' points. All that is then needed is the self discipline (in the interests of self preservation) to stick to those markers. If that all proves intellectually challenging; then grab an IFR chart and check the LSALT – these 'heights' clearly define an acceptable lowest height for operating 'in cloud'. If you are VFR and daft enough to deliberately enter clouds, then its probably a good bet to make sure that you and the bricks are properly separated.
Bad weather flying under the VFR demands much, much more discipline than IFR; especially when there is a functioning 'auto pilot'. The most important word in the lexicon is No, closely followed by No Way. There are old pilots, and there are bold pilots; but very few 'old-bold' pilots.
'Plan continuation bias' - who dreams up these 'new speak' platitudes?
“I don’t know how this helps anyone.”
Neither do I mate: its rubbish, psycho babble, a distraction from core issues and an indecent cop out. (no prize for the right answer).
Aye, rant over – but seriously folks.
Toot – toot.........
Addendum...
Golden rule for ALL pilots:-
“Hope for the best – expect the worst.” For example:-
- HERE – (Sky news).