[Kharon]

Darwin Awards Nominee perhaps??

Via Popinjay central:

In-flight break-up accident highlights dangers of VFR pilots encountering IMC

Key points


Pilot likely entered instrument meteorological conditions before becoming spatially disorientated, resulting in loss of aircraft control;

Aircraft broke-up in-flight after airspeed limitations were exceeded;

During the 11 years from January 2011 to December 2021, the ATSB investigated 14 fatal accidents involving VFR into IMC.

A Van’s RV-7A light aircraft broke up in-flight after entering instrument meteorological conditions and its pilot became spatially disorientated, resulting in the loss of control of the aircraft, an ATSB investigation report details.

The amateur-built RV-7A two-seater, with the pilot the sole occupant and owner of the aircraft, was conducting a private flight under the visual flight rules (VFR) from Winton to Bowen, Queensland, on 23 April 2021. The pilot had been on a multi-day tour in company with three other pilots, each operating their own aircraft.

About 100 km into the flight, overhead Catumnal Station, the pilot most likely entered instrument meteorological conditions (IMC) and lost control of the aircraft several times, recovering control within 50 ft of the ground, before turning back towards Winton, recorded data shows.

However, about 11 km into the return leg, the pilot then resumed tracking to Bowen, climbing to above 10,000 ft and then operating at multiple altitudes between 10,000 ft and 500 ft above the ground, most likely to avoid weather along the track.

At about 90 km south of Charters Towers, the pilot again likely entered instrument weather conditions before becoming spatially disorientated, resulting in a loss of control of the aircraft. This led to exceeding the aircraft’s airspeed limitations, leading to the catastrophic failure of the airframe and the in-flight break-up.

“The ATSB found that the pilot departed Winton with a high risk of encountering adverse weather conditions along the planned route,” said ATSB Director Transport Safety Dr Mike Walker.

“There were no operational reasons for the pilot to continue the flight to Bowen, and the pilot probably had a self-imposed motivation or pressure to continue the flight.”

For a non-instrument rated pilot, even with basic attitude instrument flying proficiency, maintaining control of an aircraft in IMC by reference to the primary flight instruments alone entails a very high workload that can result in a narrowing of attention and the loss of situational awareness.

“The ATSB urges VFR pilots to avoid flying into deteriorating weather by conducting thorough pre-flight planning to ensure you have alternate plans in case of an unexpected deterioration in the weather, and to pro-actively decide to turn back, divert or hold in areas of good weather.”

Entering poor weather without the training and experience to do so can rapidly lead to spatial disorientation when the pilot cannot see the horizon.

“The brain receives conflicting or ambiguous information from the sensory systems, resulting in a state of confusion that can rapidly lead to incorrect control inputs and a resultant loss of control of the aircraft,” Dr Walker said.

Weather often does not act as the forecast predicts. Pilots must have alternatives available and be prepared to use them—even if it means returning to the departure point.

“Developing a ‘personal minimums’ checklist is an effective defence against what pilots often term as ‘push-on-itis’ or ‘get-home-itis’,” Dr Walker noted.

“A personal minimums checklist aids identifying and managing flight risks such as marginal weather conditions. It is an individual pilot’s own set of rules and criteria for deciding if and under what conditions to fly or to continue flying based on your knowledge, skills and experience.”

The ATSB’s Avoidable Accidents publication Accidents involving Visual Flight Rules pilots in Instrument Meteorological Conditions discusses a range of VFR into IMC accidents and details advice to pilots regarding how to the risk of being involved in such accidents.

Additionally, the Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA) has produced a number of educational resources including Weather to fly, an education program which focused on topics such as the importance of pre-flight preparation, making decisions early, and talking to ATC, and ‘178 seconds to live’, a campaign on highlighting the dangers of VFR flight into IMC.

Read the report: AO-2021-017 VFR into IMC and in-flight break-up involving Van's Aircraft RV-7A, VH-XWI 90 km south of Charters Towers, Queensland, on 23 April 2021

Publication Date
09/11/2022

This bit...

"..About 100 km into the flight, overhead Catumnal Station, the pilot most likely entered instrument meteorological conditions (IMC) and lost control of the aircraft several times, recovering control within 50 ft of the ground, before turning back towards Winton, recorded data shows.."

..an accident waiting to happen perhaps?? 

MTF...P2 

Darwin Awards..

P2's Darwin Award nomination _ ABOVE _ is worthy of some serious consideration by those who operate under the Visual Flight Rules (VFR). Almost every safety authority on the planet have had to deal with similar events; the basic 'story line' similar in nearly every case; as are the warnings and the advice. All good solid stuff and quite correct in essentials.

One of the 'big' messages is how quickly spatial disorientation kicks in and how rapidly  control can be lost; this is very real and dangerous in the extreme. The warnings very valid. But I wonder if a little more, in the way of 'education' could be included in the message. No criticism intended of the official 'beware' publications, non at all; however there are a couple of items which could (IMO) stand a little more 'publicity' (if you will).

For example; George pushes his luck and ends up in cloud; loses the aircraft and emerges very close to Terra Firma; stop the video right there at that moment. We cannot know (not exactly) what is going on in George's head at that precise moment; but we may take an educated guess. For sure the Adrenalin and self preservation mechanisms have kicked in; heart rate, breathing responding to fear, we may add a dollop of self doubt to the mix. At the very instant George sees the ground again, we may reasonably ask just how 'competent' is George to be in control of an aircraft – 'shock' must be an included factor. I wonder if anyone has studied that particular moment; is George capable of making sensible decisions at that point in time? But, he must, there's much to do and it must be done 'correctly' in short order; jig time even.

Losing control of the aircraft 'in cloud' is just the beginning of a Daisy chain of events which leads the way into those famous slices of cheese. It is unlikely that George exits the cloud in good working order; chances are there will be obstacles to avoid; can a quick 360 reveal a sensible exit route? Is that pathway leading to even more obstacles and more weather? How good is George's 'situational awareness' at this point in time. We don't know; but just for the sake of discussion, let's say it is somewhat reduced. Yet every single decision and action taken now must be correct; the slim margin between walking away (chastened) and hitting something disinclined to move aside is considerably reduced. What George needs is a cup of coffee and a few moments to 'sort himself out' – he ain't got that luxury; now is the moment.

So slightly shocked, probably frightened and feeling guilty, George levels off, gets the aircraft going forward and seeks redemption; this is where pure luck plays a part. Kissed on the head by the gods – an easy escape path lays ahead; but, if Murphy takes a hand, then there is some serious work to do and a fight on your hands for survival.

Let's say lady Luck takes a hand and an exit route appears – tight but valid if your low flying skills are up to date. Ag pilots do this type of flying all day, everyday; but only 'on site'. They know the lay of the land, topography and geography; wind and thermal; where to turn, how to turn and at what height to turn. Highly skilled are those who earn their keep 'in the weeds' or with their wheels in the crop after dark. George has no such skills; now faced with two options; neatly trapped between the proverbial rock and a hard place. Risky low flight or back into the cloud and murk.

Now had George done his homework and read the weather correctly before deliberately entering IMC (inadvertent is not a valid argument) then he could head back the way he came; provided nothing had changed and Lady Luck beat Murphy to the trump, then a scared, humbled George could make a hands and knees exit toward repentance. However, it could have just as easily gone the other way; low flight, poor visibility, surround by the 'bricks' trapped in a valley. What then? Consider the decisions needed and the residual mental condition; both stacked against our man, operating the aircraft. If you now add in a predisposition to 'pushing his luck' and past experience of a Houdini like escapes perhaps a touch of arrogance due to multiple escapes; George may get to tell another tale of 'derring-do' at the bar. But, the average mug is in a world of trouble, trapped, shocked, frightened and disoriented, without the skills, training, equipment or similar experience required to sort it all out, quickly and effectively.

“A superior pilot uses his superior judgment to avoid situations which require the use of his superior skill”.

Just the stray thoughts of one who wonders why, despite the best efforts of universal advice some pilots persist when there is no valid escape route available. Sure, take a look, test it out, but never, not ever, allow the back door to slam closed when you have left your keys and brains back at the shed...

Toot – toot...