MH370 - time to think of it as a criminal act

Armada 86 05 has returned to empty handed to Freemantle this morning at Dawn (Wednesday 28th January 2026.
The Freemantle Port Authority Website indicates that it will depart on Friday at Dusk for Pago Pago (though that is not set in stone).

The question is, will she return to the search area at 34S to 36S, or not ?

I think not, for the following reasons.

If you look at it from an “actual time on task / total mission time” ratio point of view, it is pretty clear that both the A78 and A86 are not really as suitable for SIO weather conditions that OI might have hoped.

The record so far (for the Armada's) does not look encouraging.
A7806 = 23rd February 2025 to 28th February 2025 was only 5 days on task.
A7806 = 11th March 2025 to 28th March 2025 was only 17 days on task.
A8605 = 30th December 2025 to 23rd January 2026 was only 24 days on task (but 2+ days hooved to).

Therefore, the Armadas have only achieved a total of 46 (44 ?) search days on task in 11 months, or 41 (39 ?) search days on task since the contract was signed, or only 24 (22 ?) days on task since the announcement of the 55 days of intermittent searching.

I think that OI have reluctantly decided to face reality, because they must now realize that neither A78’s or A86’s are suitable for SIO weather conditions, so I think it is highly unlikely that A8605 will return to the 34S-36S box, and instead will be send to Pago Pago.

If we assume that 33 of the 55 search days on task remain, then presumably they have to be used between now and October (18 month limit on the contract), which is enough time for OI to bring in Island Pride (similar to Seabed Constructor), or even lease another similar vessel.
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Armada 86 05 has returned empty handed to Freemantle this morning at Dawn (Wednesday 28th January 2026.
The Freemantle Port Authority Website indicates that it will depart on Friday at Dusk for Pago Pago (though that is not set in stone).

The question is, will she return to the search area at 34S to 36S, or not ?

I think not, for the following reasons.

If you look at it from an “actual time on task / total mission time” ratio point of view, it is pretty clear that both the A78 and A86 are not really as suitable for SIO weather conditions that OI might have hoped.

The record so far (for the Armada's) does not look encouraging.
A7806 = 23rd February 2025 to 28th February 2025 was only 5 days on task.
A7806 = 11th March 2025 to 28th March 2025 was only 17 days on task.
A8605 = 30th December 2025 to 23rd January 2026 was only 24 days on task (but 2+ days hooved to).

Therefore, the Armadas have only achieved a total of 46 (44 ?) search days on task in 11 months, or 41 (39 ?) search days on task since the contract was signed, or only 24 (22 ?) days on task since the announcement of the 55 days of intermittent searching.

I think that OI have reluctantly decided to face reality, because they must now realize that neither A78’s or A86’s are suitable for SIO weather conditions, so I think it is highly unlikely that A8605 will return to the 34S-36S box, and instead will be send to Pago Pago.

If we assume that 33 of the 55 search days on task remain, then presumably they have to be used between now and October (18 month limit on the contract), which is enough time for OI to bring in Island Pride (similar to Seabed Constructor), or even lease another similar vessel.
Reply




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